Aussie Aussie Aussie, OI OI OI $

**hawley** · 11-07-12, 03:13 AM

I am a little weary of the Lakers tomorrow. It is one thing to turn their form around at home against the Pistons but to go on the road to Utah who are very tough at home is a different beast altogether.

In the last few seasons the Lakers have almost always gone into SLC at close to even odds so to get them as a nice dog does seem attractive on the surface.

I'm not sure I could take them here after one good performance. Kobe will get his as will Dwight and Gasol. The question is whether that will be enough or whether the bench can perform on the road in a hostile environment.

Re Pinnacle: obviously you won't get a deposit bonus or freeplay but you will soon notice the benefits of getting such good odds regularly.

And as for the NBL..Who knows. I do like the Wildcats now they got hammered and they get the 36ers on the second leg of their double header this weekend. I am just cautious that this is their final leg of a number of away games. All the travel and the prospect of playing their home opener in the near future may take it's toll. On the other hand I am sure they will want to finish all the travel with a win before they head into what I imagine must be a pretty decent home stand? (haven't looked too far ahead). Ultimately it is the NBL so who fukkn knows

**nVinyl** · 11-07-12, 03:25 AM

Originally posted by sando

I would highly reccomend Pinnacle mate, I love it and I have accounts everywhere, about a dozen all up but Pinny is head and shoulders above the rest. If you can open an account at Pinny to go SBR pro, I would do that, if not then shitty old bet365 is always a safe option. At Pinny you will get ATS lines at -105 (1.95), far better than Sportingbet, IAS bet, etc with their $1.88-$1.90 lines. Plus most importantly of all you can live bet, which as you know we get unfairly punished with this b/s have to ring up crap, on Pinny it's instant, every time-out and break they'll throw a line up immediately. Cash out's are easy, you get 1 free per month and it takes 24-48 hours to hit your account...

Another Aussie here

Gotta agree, pinnacle is the choice. Best lines i have seen without a doubt and the betting live online without having to make a phone call is gold. I do have a separate bet365 account as it has probably the nicest looking website and greatest flexibility with multi's/parlays but #1 preference is pinny. So glad I don't bet with TAB (Sydney), most ridiculous fkn juice you will ever pay.

**therealdealau** · 11-07-12, 03:42 AM

I had this huge write up and accidentally clicked back and lost it FFS

Here are my leans for tomorrow, feel free to comment, disagree or agree and get a discussion going peoples various opinion helps my plays...

Denver +2.5

I had a huge write up very well written but cbf trying to duplicate here are the cliffs
-Rockets overhyped team, actually very very average
-Rockets no depth, weak in many spots
-Rockets lack scoring outside Lin
-Denver opposite to Rockets lots of offensive weapons/deep bench - i feel this is the difference maker
-Iggy difference maker, lock down Harden

Clips +2

This is a situational play and lacks hard fact but let me articulate my thoughts. Firstly Clips have played back to back horrible games losses to sides that aren't considered elite. This could be concluded to their new rotations and getting used to each other on both sides of the floor. I believe this puts the Clippers in a perfect spot for a bounce back game against a conference rival. They had close games last season and I expect that to continue. Both teams are extremely deep, the difference is the Spurs have more chemistry but I feel talent wise the Clippers actually out do them. Crawford/Bledsoe/Odom need to have solid contributing games here and I expect they will be productive, especially Jamal. So far Crawford has been the only really productive guy off the bench and I think this game that changes for the Clippers. CP3 needs to take control more especially in the 4th like last season, I expect the Clippers will be extremely prepared and motivated for this game. Caron Butler has improved drastically this season, I think he will have a great game tomorrow and could potentially be the difference maker. It will be a closely contested game and go back and forth but I believe the value is with the homeside and the points. The public will be all over Spurs here, I know fading the public isn't a good enough reason for a game and although i have stated some reasons for the Clippers I believe this situation is a perfect public fade on a road favourite Red hot Spurs vsing a Clippers team that lost back to back games to Cavs/Gsw.

Games of interest

Grizz+1

- Love the Grizz but +1? Is this the same situation as the GSW game or have the Bucks truly improved? Randolph and Gasol are firing it would be hard for the Bucks to stop that. Alongside Grizz strong perimeter defenders I worry about the Bucks offensively. Dunleavey wont go off again.

76ers +1

- Are the Hornets really the real deal after a few games? Sure they have been impressive but they are still the Hornets. I'm just waiting for them to start playing badly again. No Davis as well really eases up the lack of Bynum for the 76ers who will be reeling for a win after being bitch slapped back to back by the Knicks. Holiday is getting the offense going I like what he is doing...

Mavs -5.5

- Lowry appears a certain out
- Mavs rolling with Mayo at the helm
- Collision finding his new team a blessing he's balling
- Kaman's second game back will be even better, boosts their size depth
- Impressive win vs portland mav's looked good without Dirk
- Raps b2b road trip they look flat

**therealdealau** · 11-07-12, 03:45 AM

Originally posted by hawley

I am a little weary of the Lakers tomorrow. It is one thing to turn their form around at home against the Pistons but to go on the road to Utah who are very tough at home is a different beast altogether.

In the last few seasons the Lakers have almost always gone into SLC at close to even odds so to get them as a nice dog does seem attractive on the surface.

I'm not sure I could take them here after one good performance. Kobe will get his as will Dwight and Gasol. The question is whether that will be enough or whether the bench can perform on the road in a hostile environment.

Re Pinnacle: obviously you won't get a deposit bonus or freeplay but you will soon notice the benefits of getting such good odds regularly.

And as for the NBL..Who knows. I do like the Wildcats now they got hammered and they get the 36ers on the second leg of their double header this weekend. I am just cautious that this is their final leg of a number of away games. All the travel and the prospect of playing their home opener in the near future may take it's toll. On the other hand I am sure they will want to finish all the travel with a win before they head into what I imagine must be a pretty decent home stand? (haven't looked too far ahead). Ultimately it is the NBL so who fukkn knows

I know I have that feeling too, hell I hit one of my biggest ML winners last season on the Jazz against LA and agreed the Pistons win is meaningless they are shaping up to be the wooden spoon of the competition. However I just feel like the lack of Nash suits the Lakers as they appear to not have learned how to play with a proper PG thus far. The bench is my main concern but if Dwight can dominate I think it's game over the points is value. I am certainly worried that this is a sneaky ploy to get action. Lakers +3.5 anywhere will get action.

Their 4 game run or so at home is looking very nice, with a Breakers game in there somewhere. Obviously ending this road trip with one loss will be their goal. They played so poorly against the Hawks that I can only predict a bounce back game.

**SiMON2g** · 11-07-12, 03:57 AM

Nice write ups dude.

**vasilli07** · 11-07-12, 04:19 AM

Like the Grizz as well. Nice writeup.

**therealdealau** · 11-07-12, 04:27 AM

Thanks guys any opposition to my thoughts?

Most of my picks are real square...

**aussieH** · 11-07-12, 04:28 AM

Great write ups. I am tailing on all games. Who is odom playing for now clippers or spurs

**hawley** · 11-07-12, 04:29 AM

Originally posted by aussieH

Great write ups. I am tailing on all games. Who is odom playing for now clippers or spurs

Clippers. Pretty out of shape at the moment.

**therealdealau** · 11-07-12, 04:32 AM

Originally posted by aussieH

Great write ups. I am tailing on all games. Who is odom playing for now clippers or spurs

aussieH proceed with caution I haven't bet on any yet, I like Denver/Clippers/Mavs the most...the lines for 76ers/Grizz worry me I was hoping to get some sort of opposition to my write ups...also didnt really analyse the last 3 very well i have more indepth reasoning if you would like it

**therealdealau** · 11-07-12, 04:34 AM

Originally posted by hawley

Clippers. Pretty out of shape at the moment.

pretty keen on your thoughts hawley

**therealdealau** · 11-07-12, 04:44 AM

I also think the Cavs get blown out by GSW

**hawley** · 11-07-12, 04:46 AM

Originally posted by therealdealau

pretty keen on your thoughts hawley

Still checking out the lines myself.

Like Dallas here especially without Lowry. Calderon is a more than adequate replacement but Lowry has been huge for the Raptors in the first few games. He grabs boards and is a very active defender.

Calderon is a good distributor but can't defend.

Mavericks right now are the perfect illustration of a team with a good coach playing in a good system. Collison was a stud a few years back when he took Paul's spot at the Hornets. He went to the Pacers and stunk but he looks to be back.

Raptors do not have the size inside to really exploit the Mavericks lack of height. Bargnani plays away from the basket and Valunciunas is still a rookie. Kaman looked good his last game and with Brand and Wright they should be able to handle the Raptors front court.

Without Davis I can't see the Hornets beating Philly but the Knicks exposed them as a pretty poor team so I can't take them here on the road. I like the under more than a side.

Bucks / Grizz: no idea? Have not seen enough of the Bucks to make a judgment. Grizz should have too much inside and Allen is the best perimeter defender in the game and will have plenty of experience guarding Ellis. whoever he guards will have a tough time scoring. Jennings has started the season hot but if Allen gets him he will force him into plenty of tough shots and turnovers.

Do the Bucks have anyone to stop Gay as well? I think the Grizz are the much better team here but at this stage in the season I don't touch games like this.

**hawley** · 11-07-12, 04:46 AM

Originally posted by therealdealau

I also think the Cavs get blown out by GSW

This I agree on.

Bad letdown spot for a young team who just went into LA and got a massive win.

**therealdealau** · 11-07-12, 04:58 AM

Originally posted by hawley

Still checking out the lines myself.

Like Dallas here especially without Lowry. Calderon is a more than adequate replacement but Lowry has been huge for the Raptors in the first few games. He grabs boards and is a very active defender.

Calderon is a good distributor but can't defend.

Mavericks right now are the perfect illustration of a team with a good coach playing in a good system. Collison was a stud a few years back when he took Paul's spot at the Hornets. He went to the Pacers and stunk but he looks to be back.

Raptors do not have the size inside to really exploit the Mavericks lack of height. Bargnani plays away from the basket and Valunciunas is still a rookie. Kaman looked good his last game and with Brand and Wright they should be able to handle the Raptors front court.

Without Davis I can't see the Hornets beating Philly but the Knicks exposed them as a pretty poor team so I can't take them here on the road. I like the under more than a side.

Bucks / Grizz: no idea? Have not seen enough of the Bucks to make a judgment. Grizz should have too much inside and Allen is the best perimeter defender in the game and will have plenty of experience guarding Ellis. whoever he guards will have a tough time scoring. Jennings has started the season hot but if Allen gets him he will force him into plenty of tough shots and turnovers.

Do the Bucks have anyone to stop Gay as well? I think the Grizz are the much better team here but at this stage in the season I don't touch games like this.

Good words my man, makes me comfortable about Dallas and might take the -5.5 now i'm just worried about the "take the team ATS when their star is out" angle, it's worked for me plenty last season and already once this season (OKC). Agreed Philly look average they are no longer a premier defensive squad. But I love them on the bounce back. Bucks are also lacking in the bigs, a Moute was a contributer every time these sides played each other. Ilyasova is struggling too and I think his woes continue. Allen takes Ellis, shut him down last year. Gay has no opposition too athletic.

**MrXYZ** · 11-07-12, 06:54 AM

Passing on the action aside from a $10 degen play on the Lakers +3.5, so I don't have much to add except that we're looking at some tough games tomorrow. Grizz in particular seems too easy, they should be road faves at -2.5. And 76ers as well. We could see those two games turn into blow outs - in which direction who knows. All sorts of sh#t happens in these midweek games.

Spurs have had an impressive start to the season, they're looking very solid & I'd think twice before fading a team that swept the Clippers last year.

**kermit345** · 11-07-12, 08:04 AM

I like the mavs play the best!

**therealdealau** · 11-07-12, 08:38 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Passing on the action aside from a $10 degen play on the Lakers +3.5, so I don't have much to add except that we're looking at some tough games tomorrow. Grizz in particular seems too easy, they should be road faves at -2.5. And 76ers as well. We could see those two games turn into blow outs - in which direction who knows. All sorts of sh#t happens in these midweek games.

Spurs have had an impressive start to the season, they're looking very solid & I'd think twice before fading a team that swept the Clippers last year.

Wise words. I don't know if I'm an action junkie or just fearless but i truly love a lot of these players if not all of them tomorrow. Maybe i'll advise everyone to stay away as i feel like i will have lots of volume. I have a strong feeling at least one of these +1 dogs 76ers/Grizz will cover comfortably. The Spurs/Clips had close games all season and actually blew the Spurs out in their last meeting in San An in impressive fashion, although Mo Williams had a handy 30+ points.

**TheFlash** · 11-07-12, 08:58 AM

Lakers and Houston lines tomorrow aussie brahs.....lets roll

**therealdealau** · 11-07-12, 06:30 PM

Before you guys tail if you decide to read this first. I don't know how this will be perceived but personally I don't care it's my thread, corny or ironic as it may be.

It's my sponsored child's birthday today and as I don't have a family of my own i'm goin to celebrate in my own way with lots of plays today and hopefully lots of winners. My reasoning and insight is written above somewhere.

Nuggets +2.5 (2x)
Grizzlies -1 (1.5x)
Sixers -1.5 (1.5x)
Mavs -7 (1x)

BIRTHDAY PARLAY SPECIAL

Nuggets ML/Grizz ML/Sixers ML +646 (0.5x)

Will post my later plays closer to game time

LEANING hard on clips

GL

**That Guy** · 11-07-12, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by therealdealau

Before you guys tail if you decide to read this first. I don't know how this will be perceived but personally I don't care it's my thread, corny or ironic as it may be.

It's my sponsored child's birthday today and as I don't have a family of my own i'm goin to celebrate in my own way with lots of plays today and hopefully lots of winners. My reasoning and insight is written above somewhere.

Nuggets +2.5 (2x)
Grizzlies -1 (1.5x)
Sixers -1.5 (1.5x)
Mavs -7 (1x)

BIRTHDAY PARLAY SPECIAL

Nuggets ML/Grizz ML/Sixers ML +646 (0.5x)

Will post my later plays closer to game time

LEANING hard on clips

GL

Some great looking plays there mate.. Good luck!

**therealdealau** · 11-07-12, 07:31 PM

Originally posted by That Guy

Some great looking plays there mate.. Good luck!

Thanks pal really going to need a bit of luck and some magic today.

**therealdealau** · 11-07-12, 08:48 PM

Really not liking the public love for GSW...

Might excise some form of control and not bet the Lakers, will i regret it?

**therealdealau** · 11-07-12, 09:24 PM

GSW -4.5 (1.5x)
Clippers +1.5 (1.5x)

**therealdealau** · 11-08-12, 12:56 AM

Originally posted by therealdealau

Nuggets +2.5 (2x)

Grizzlies -1 (1.5x)

Sixers -1.5 (1.5x)

Mavs -7 (1x)

BIRTHDAY PARLAY SPECIAL

Nuggets ML/Grizz ML/Sixers ML +646 (0.5x)

GSW -4.5 (1.5x)

Clippers +1.5 (1.5x)

Wow, what a day. Going to donate a quarter of my profits to my sponsor child's project in Brazil. Definitely feel blessed and lucky today, I feel my analysis on all games were on point, Denver in particular just too deep and Harden got shut down hard. Annoyed Dallas couldn't close. I'm hoping this continues and that i'm in the zone for awhile here. 6-1 +10.75 units today, managed to win a cool 3.75 units on my parlay.

NBA RECORD 16-2-12 +14.75 Units

**hawley** · 11-08-12, 12:57 AM

Solid day bro nice!

Glad you stayed off the Lakers too.

**therealdealau** · 11-08-12, 12:59 AM

Originally posted by hawley

Solid day bro nice!

Glad you stayed off the Lakers too.

Thanks pal, appreciate the chat previous to the games helped me out. Might try and get frequent discussions going here. I'm glad too. How did you go today>?

**hawley** · 11-08-12, 01:01 AM

Originally posted by therealdealau

Thanks pal, appreciate the chat previous to the games helped me out. Might try and get frequent discussions going here. I'm glad too. How did you go today>?

I don't have a thread so will keep posting my thoughts in here.

Pretty rubbish finish to the Dallas game. they were the play for sure, just opened the door for the Raptors.

Had a pretty solid but quiet day. Had Kings 1h and 2h team totals and a ML parlay of Kings, Warriors, Mavs and Suns.

Kicking myself for not playing more of my leans but this early in the season it is good to sit back and get a good look at all the teams.

**WillC** · 11-08-12, 01:02 AM

well done.. nice parlay too!
Great to see an Aussie killing it

**therealdealau** · 11-08-12, 01:06 AM

Originally posted by hawley

I don't have a thread so will keep posting my thoughts in here.

Pretty rubbish finish to the Dallas game. they were the play for sure, just opened the door for the Raptors.

Had a pretty solid but quiet day. Had Kings 1h and 2h team totals and a ML parlay of Kings, Warriors, Mavs and Suns.

Kicking myself for not playing more of my leans but this early in the season it is good to sit back and get a good look at all the teams.

Great would love your continued input, you are a highly valued poster bro. Dallas was sick, some really dumb turn overs by Carter. Missed FT. Nice ML parlay hit that's sweet.

Yeah I know, I usually do the same but pulled the trigger. I'm really happy about the Grizz/Sixers - they looked too easy and they were.

Twolves was a nice play, missed the boat on that one completely just too many games to analyze.

**therealdealau** · 11-08-12, 01:07 AM

Originally posted by WillC

well done.. nice parlay too!
Great to see an Aussie killing it

thanks mate, i wish you all the best!

**hawley** · 11-08-12, 01:12 AM

Lets keep grinding bro...Still a long season to go

**sando** · 11-08-12, 01:19 AM

Your a beast! What a day for you mate.

ps - Where in Aus? Let me guess... Geelong or Gold Coast?

**therealdealau** · 11-08-12, 01:22 AM

So we're back on the grind, I'll have a little celebration tonight but my eye is on the prize.

My ramblings/thoughts on the following games and my heavy leans. Most probably going to play both of these but I don't lock things in until later in the evening/early morning.

OKC ML/-1.5

Haven't decided which i'll take maybe the ML. Firstly OKC absolutely killed it ATS last season on TNT, I don't have the exact numbers but part of my research preseason was looking at the public wins/losses on TNT thursday and although the public lost more than they won on TNT a safe bet for the public was always OKC they were a covering machine. This is not the sole reason for this play, I believe OKC are ready to roll here against the Bulls in a statement game. Sure the Bulls are missing their star but they are still a tough team and a well respected team, a win here boosts OKC's confidence and also starts digging the bullet deeper into silencing all this media rubbish about OKC vs Harden. Westbrook will have a field day, Hinrich will not be an issue and neither will Nate. Durant will have a big game here, he was rested against the Raptors and has generally been quiet by his standards but that will change. OKC will record their first road win, they have had a enough games together now the rotations are becoming more familiar. Martin will have a field day against the second string guards of Chicago whom I have not been impressed with thus far. This is the first elite team the Bulls will face and I think they will be exposed by OKC's offensive weapons.

Portland +1.5

Love this spot for Portland as home dogs, there isn't many teams I would take as a dog in Portland and I don't think Clippers will this team. Sure they are deep but I believe their bench will struggle in a hostile road environment like Portland. Coming home for the second time this season after 3 straight road games the Blazers will be motivated to collect a win over not only a conference rival but a well respected side. Lillard gets another opportunity to lead his team and continue to wow critics and this time he gets to do it against one of the best if not the leading PG in the NBA, he will be up to the task and have a stellar game. For Portland to cover here we need the sharp shooters Matthews/Batum to fire. Matthews has been fairly consistent and his defense has been great but Batum has been hit and miss. I think he will be much more comfortable at home and will knock down some big shots. I'm not worried about the starting 5, the bench is the key here if they can produce productive minutes then they will be in this, I'm basically putting my wager in the hands of the bench. I believe they will contribute as bench players usually perform better with the crowd behind them. I know during the preseason many of Portlands bench played decent at home so I hope this carries over.

**therealdealau** · 11-08-12, 01:24 AM

Originally posted by sando

Your a beast! What a day for you mate.

ps - Where in Aus? Let me guess... Geelong or Gold Coast?

Thanks pal, and thanks for the tennis last night. Damn Lakers struggled again today, what was Pau doing?

I actually live in the one and only amazing Perth city. I'm actually a stone cold Dockers fan but I also support the Suns - I lived on the Coast for a couple years and have family there that I visit regularly. Gary is just an idol, greatest of all time to me and brings me luck.