NBA Season Thread With Matchup Analysis

**Goat Milk** · 12-15-12, 09:00 PM

PLAY 121: MEMPHIS +2 -103 RISK $103 TO WIN $100

The Grizz are just a bad matchup for Utah in my opinion. Utah definitely has the size to hang with them down low but in an earlier game this year Marvin Williams really went after Gay and defended him well. I expect Gay to be sharp after he missed that game tying 3 last night. Randolph didn't get too many touches either and he is a big mismatch for Milsap. Corbin will have to tweak his lineup in-game tonight to adjust because I really don't see Milsap being able to hold his ground down low. Jefferson is a beast but Gasol is a solid post defender and Gasol always gets up for these matchups when he's playing an elite Center. Bayless should be able to work Watson off the dribble, and Ellington Pondexter should play well because other than Hayward, Utah doesn't really have any g/sfs that can do damage. Favors and Kantor are big guys off the bench and imo they are going to have to have big games on the glass for Utah to win this game.

**Bbr** · 12-15-12, 09:02 PM

Gasol and randolph will clean up the paint tonight. Gay to bounce back. Got a no call last night which prooved costly. Gay will be up and about.

**Goat Milk** · 12-15-12, 09:03 PM

BBr i wouldn't pound it bro. It's a rough spot for Memphis on a b2b just coming from Denver and now in Utah. If it was any other circumstance I would pound memphis.

**Bbr** · 12-15-12, 09:14 PM

Ive got 2.5x ATS and .5x ML. SO yeah, I didnt pound.

**MexicanStallion** · 12-15-12, 09:36 PM

Will post updates on both nights at the end. Didn't have computer access yesterday.

**Capybara** · 12-15-12, 09:40 PM

Originally posted by MexicanStallion

Will post updates on both nights at the end. Didn't have computer access yesterday.

**Goat Milk** · 12-15-12, 09:42 PM

Duncan missed like 4 5 bunnies in the 1st half. not sure he'll be able to hit 17 but he's getting clean looks

**mvanja** · 12-15-12, 10:07 PM

WTF is wrong with T Dancan, 3 pts, 5:36 left in third Q??? Nice one on D Williams dough...

**Goat Milk** · 12-15-12, 10:10 PM

Originally posted by mvanja

WTF is wrong with T Dancan, 3 pts, 5:36 left in third Q??? Nice one on D Williams dough...

wide open looks. nothing you can do. have a feeling it's gonna be a losing day today.

**Goat Milk** · 12-15-12, 10:12 PM

PLAY 122: MEMPHIS -2 (2ND HALF) -105 (HERITAGE) RISK $105 TO WIN $100

SO MEMPHIS +8 FOR THE GAME.

GASOL got in early foul trouble and never found a rhythm. Gay is somewhat off but he's getting some good looks. Look for Memphis starters to really put their imprint on this second half. I really think Memphis will come back in this game but the way the Jazz bench has been playing makes me think Jazz will still win. I think it'll be a close game though.

**mvanja** · 12-15-12, 10:14 PM

Actually I'm doing fine with nba, covered 5 units lost on both football games..

**Goat Milk** · 12-15-12, 10:39 PM

Bucks get blown out Ellis doesn't even play the 4th that's the only thing that could have kept that prop from cashing

Let's go memphis one time

**Bbr** · 12-15-12, 10:48 PM

Griz D stepping up big time. Only thing that will cost us here is if jazz start lighting up from beyond the arc...

**JM92** · 12-15-12, 10:48 PM

wow tyrone corbin is disapointing me right now. no way caroll and tinsley can be on the floor at the same time against the grizz starting 5. what the hell was he thinkin.

**BigDofBA** · 12-15-12, 10:51 PM

I'm with you on Memphis -2 second half.

**Goat Milk** · 12-15-12, 11:04 PM

Gasol has been huge this half so far defensively. He is single handedly keeping Memphis in this game despite what the stats may show

**Goat Milk** · 12-15-12, 11:12 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Randolph didn't get too many touches either and he is a big mismatch for Milsap. Corbin will have to tweak his lineup in-game tonight to adjust because I really don't see Milsap being able to hold his ground down low.

Randolph is straight abusing Milsap down low. The Jazz are done. They look defeated.

**MexicanStallion** · 12-16-12, 01:22 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

FRIDAY DECEMBER 14TH

PLAY 109: MAVERICKS -5.5 -110 RISK $55 TO WIN $50

Originally posted by Goat Milk

play 110: Lakers ml/mavs ml parlay +115 risk $200 to win $230

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY 111: LAKERS ML/PACERS ML +102 RISK $100 TO WIN $102

PLAY 112: LAKERS -3 1ST HALF -110 RISK $55 TO WIN $50

PLAY 113: PISTONS +8 -110 RISK $55 TO WIN $50

PLAY 114: VINCE CARTER OVER 12.5 POINTS (-120) RISK $36 TO WIN $30. HERITAGE.

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY 115: DENVER PK -110 RISK $220 TO WIN $200

December 14th
3-3-1 (+$61.00)

NBA Season
68-44-4 ($3483.25)

Parlays: 9-3 ($1110.00)
Spreads: 22-14 ($1263.00)
Moneylines: 11-3 ($917.50)
Props: 9-4-1 ($229.00)
Alt. Spreads: 2-1-1 ($248.75)
Totals: 1-1 ($45.00)
Halves: 12-12-1 ($40.00)
Live: 0-2 (-$160.00)
TT: 2-4-1 (-$210.00)

**hawley** · 12-16-12, 01:36 AM

Keep printing that cash boss.

**MexicanStallion** · 12-16-12, 01:40 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY 116: BOBCATS -1 -110 RISK $165 TO WIN $150

PLAY 117: TIM DUNCAN OVER 16.5 POINTS -120 RISK $36 TO WIN $30. HERITAGE.

PLAY 118: D. WILL OVER 17.5 POINTS -120 RISK $36 TO WIN $30. HERITAGE.

PLAY 119: MONTE ELLIS OVER 17.5 POINTS -140 RISK $42 TO WIN $30. HERITAGE.

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY 120: MIAMI HEAT TEAM TOTAL OVER 105.5 -110 RISK $55 TO WIN $50

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY 121: MEMPHIS +2 -103 RISK $103 TO WIN $100

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY 122: MEMPHIS -2 (2ND HALF) -105 (HERITAGE) RISK $105 TO WIN $100

SO MEMPHIS +8 FOR THE GAME.

December 15th
3-4 (-$68.00)

NBA Season
71-48-4 ($3415.25)

Spreads: 23-15 ($1198.00)
Parlays: 9-3 ($1110.00)
Moneylines: 11-3 ($917.50)
Alt. Spreads: 2-1-1 ($248.75)
Props: 10-6-1 ($181.00)
Halves: 13-12-1 ($140.00)
Totals: 1-1 ($45.00)
Live: 0-2 (-$160.00)
TT: 2-5-1 (-$265.00)

**dmtrader** · 12-16-12, 02:03 AM

Pretty damn good numbers by Mexican Stallion

**Goat Milk** · 12-16-12, 02:55 AM

horrible run last 2 days

**bgdog** · 12-16-12, 03:07 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

horrible run last 2 days

My bad that's on me, 2 days ago is when I started Tailing. The bad luck is infectious

**Goat Milk** · 12-16-12, 03:09 AM

Originally posted by bgdog

My bad that's on me, 2 days ago is when I started Tailing. The bad luck is infectious

-$7 last two days. too much thinking involved for no profit. let's get it back this week.

**h3da** · 12-16-12, 03:18 AM

I think you do better when you have one play per day rather than multiples. Not sure if it's a good method but that's what I do. I choose only one game even though I may like a few and aim to profit 1 unit a day.

**boondoggle** · 12-16-12, 04:59 AM

I love all the suggestions from people who do NOT have their own winning thread...lol. Advice is free for a reason......

**MTM** · 12-16-12, 07:06 AM

Goat milk, love your matchup analysis. I like to read your thoughts cos often I see stats but can't really read into a players strengths and weaknesses.

Ps.
If -$7 is a bad run then you're doing better than the rest of us.

**alamo** · 12-16-12, 07:22 AM

Thanks for your time and thoughts posted GM. Keep up the good work buddy.

**Seto** · 12-16-12, 07:35 AM

you like the lakeshow today?

looks like decent be it spotwise or matchupwise. considering a large play

**alepeviani** · 12-16-12, 08:00 AM

Any thoughts on why Trail Blazers line is so low?? Hornets suck hard, especially on the road

**elPkay** · 12-16-12, 08:41 AM

Originally posted by MTM

Goat milk, love your matchup analysis. I like to read your thoughts cos often I see stats but can't really read into a players strengths and weaknesses.

Ps.
If -$7 is a bad run then you're doing better than the rest of us.

Well I guess you have to think of it as a job.
When you go to work, spend hours doing what you do (In this case - gather information about all possible picks)
I guess every Break even or loss day is bad.

I don't know if GM does that for a living but I know it from playing Poker. If you grind 10 or 12 tables for a few hours,
as concentrated as possible, you feel bad when you end up with a break even day after playing 3k hands.
Even if the bigger picture is more important, just imagine you go to work, work your ass off and then
don't get paid for it because something happened

**mlb** · 12-16-12, 10:45 AM

What....?? It is not possible to win every day, what are you talking about comparing it to work?

**sando** · 12-16-12, 11:22 AM

Goat = The match up king.

**Ralphie1412** · 12-16-12, 12:18 PM

you are trying way too hard Goat. Make a bet or two. Quit betting like a 15 year old. Props? C'mon man.

**Tommy_de1st** · 12-16-12, 12:24 PM

Goat knows what he's doing.
Btw, do you know if SoV is still around?