5-1 (+23.705 units) so far in the WNBA Playoffs

kneighfe · 09-29-12, 12:16 AM

Game 2 of the San Antonio Silver Stars - Los Angeles Sparks series.

INJURY UPDATE:

LA Sparks
06/13/12	G	Sharnee' Zoll	ACL	out indefinitely

Game 2 is scheduled to be played in San Antonio at Freeman Coliseum and not at the AT&T Center because of a Red Hot Chili Peppers concert.

Game 1 went to Minnesota, 93-86. As expected, it was a high octane game. The combined score in 3 out of the 4 quarters were more than 40 pts, only the 2nd was below 40 with a total of 35.

As expected, the Silver Stars will put up a fight, they were close to winning if it weren't for a 19-28 fourth quarter and if it weren't for giving up so many freethrows. The freethrows are expected because it is the playoffs and no easy 2 points will be given up but for the Silver Stars to give up 32 freethrows, that's an awful lot.

Freethrow shooting plays a big factor everytime they play against each other. Looking at their regular season games, when the Silver Stars make more freethrows than LA, they win; but when it's even or LA has more, it's LA who wins the game. It continued in game 1 and it might continue until the end of the series.

Freethrow shooting is also important to us punters as it either widens or tightens the gap between two teams and an X-factor in the over/under aspect.

In their 4 regular season encounters, the average total points per game is an astounding 174.25. The average number of freethrows made per game? 24.00!!! If you will remove the freethrows, their average will dip down to 150.25; if half will be removed, it will be 162.00 and that is a half point loss for Game 1's Over 162.5 line.

It seems that from start until the last paragraph, I am leaning towards the over but make no mistake as I AM NOT!!! Thanks to Game 1's very high score, the over was inflated and is now at 166.5. Law of averages? Combined made made freethrows in Game 2 will just be what the average tells you, at 24 a game; more or less it will be 23-27.

In Game 1, the combined score was 179 (93-86) and both teams converted a total of 36 freethrows. If they were just on average? 179-12 = 167; therefore, my bet for Game 2 is under 167.5 @ 1.925.

What tells me that it will go under? It was Hammons himself, "It was kind of foul central at the end.'' Now that they are aware, they will pay more attention in defending honestly, without fouling. Remember, the playoffs is a game of adjustments. The more the series gets deeper, the more they know each other and the more they get to learn how to defend each other and with the scoreline going up on Game 2 and the game not at the AT&T Center, it is the perfect time to take the under.

As to which team will win? It is hard to tell as there is really no clear home court advantage but with San Antonio's season on the line, they will be more eager and hungrier to win BUT MORE PRESSURED as well. And for the Nth time, no clear home court advantage. At the moment, the public is pounding the handicap in favor of San Antonio so I will wait for the LA +4.5 to go up to around 1.900 then I'll bite on it.

FINAL VERDICT:
Under 167.5 @ 1.925 for 10 units
Los Angeles Sparks +4.5 PENDING as I am waiting for its odds to reach 1.900

kneighfe · 09-29-12, 12:48 AM

Game 2 of the New York Liberty - Connecticut Sun series.

INJURY UPDATE:

Connecticut Sun
09/28/12	G	Danielle McCray	Knee	probable Saturday vs. NY Liberty

NY Liberty
05/19/12	C	Quanitra Hollingsworth	Personal	out indefinitely

On Game 1, Connecticut actually brought me down. Although they won, they only won by 5 and they had a good sizeable lead in stretches of the game.

Tale of the game? Tina Charles was her usual dominant self. Cappie Pondexter? 3 out of 16 from the field? But still, she finished with 14 points. What more when playing in the comfort of your home and the season on the line? Remember that Pondexter ups her game whenever there is more pressure and more meaning in the game.

Tina Charles to dominate? Her last game at New York was a forgettable one but the rest, the Liberty will want to forget as she is crushing them on the boards and in the score sheet.

With Cappie Pondexter definitely upping her game and Tina Charles certain of putting up decent numbers, the scoreline will not be too far from what Game was. My take? Not sure if the Liberty WILL win, but they CAN plus Pondexter shooting just 3 for 16 but losing by just 5? Come on, you very well know that I will take the plus points for the Liberty.

FINAL VERDICT:
New York Liberty +4 @ 1.892 for 10 units

nosaij · 09-29-12, 12:57 AM

nice brother!

kneighfe · 09-29-12, 01:11 AM

Originally posted by nosaij

nice brother!

Thanks, man! I hope we can continue cashing in.

kneighfe · 09-29-12, 06:32 AM

Under 167.5 no longer on offer in pinnacle.

ninos · 09-29-12, 08:52 AM

don't you think that conn has the best away record. they covered more away games than home. just a thought

kneighfe · 09-29-12, 11:48 AM

Originally posted by ninos

don't you think that conn has the best away record. they covered more away games than home. just a thought

Yep, aware of it but this is the playoffs and when it matters most, Cappie always shows up. Sticking with my pick but still BIG THANKS for the reminder.

kneighfe · 09-29-12, 12:04 PM

LA Sparks +4.5 is currently @ 1.877.

I will wait until it reaches 1.900 but if it goes down to 1.85, I will take it.

kneighfe · 09-29-12, 12:42 PM

Originally posted by kneighfe

LA Sparks +4.5 is currently @ 1.877.

I will wait until it reaches 1.900 but if it goes down to 1.85, I will take it.

Taken LA Sparks +4.5 @ 1.884 for 5 units

Now it's just @ 1.787

kneighfe · 09-29-12, 12:44 PM

If the Sparks lead at the half and we get generous odds for the Silver Stars, I will take it. Let's see how the game goes.

kneighfe · 09-29-12, 05:15 PM

Good Morning SBR! I fell asleep and missed LA SA Game 2. It's 6 AM here now. I was very much surprised to see the scoreline. Not because SA lost but by the total score.I thought Hammon was already aware that they would have to play good and honest defense in order for them to win a game against the Sparks but what a mess was Game 2? You simplycannot outgun the Sparks because they have 3 great offensive optin and a 1 woman wrecking crew in Parker. Oh well, bye bye Silver Stars.

Under 167.5 @ 1.925 for 10 units (-10.000 units)
LA Sparks +4.5 @ 1.884 for 5 units (+4.420 units)

kneighfe · 09-29-12, 05:32 PM

No writeups as for now as I will be out today and will be beack late. If I'll be back early, I will postmy thoughts.

Seattle Minnesota Series Game 2

FINAL VERDICT:
Seattle +4.5 @ 1.885 for 10 units
Under 149 @ 1.847 for 10 units

Best of luck to all who will tail.

bleek88 · 09-29-12, 05:41 PM

I'll give you some advice rook

your good plays dont give them out, there's leaches all over this board like parasites feeding off each other to make $. Make the $ yourself, who cares about online reputation. And all the trolls are going to come out after I say this.

bleek88 · 09-29-12, 05:43 PM

and another word of advice

always always beat your meat to taj mcwilliams franklin

kneighfe · 09-30-12, 12:12 PM

Atlanta Dream - Indiana Fever Game 2

Indiana Fever +5.5 @ 1.806 for 10 units

From +23.705 units, I am down to +8.125 units.

BryanBarina · 09-30-12, 06:35 PM

Good call on fever

kneighfe · 09-30-12, 07:40 PM

New York Liberty - Connecticut Sun
Game 1
Connecticut Sun -10.5 @ 2.38 for 10 units (-10.000 units)
Game 2
New York Liberty +4 @ 1.892 for 10 units (-10.000 units)

San Antonio Silver Stars - Los Angeles Sparks
Game 1
San Antonio Silver Stars +8.5 @ 1.751 for 5 units (+3.755 units)
Over 162.5 @ 1.819 for 10 units (+8.19 units)
Game 2
Under 167.5 @ 1.925 for 10 units (-10.000 units)
Los Angeles Sparks +4.5 @ 1.884 for 5 units (+4.42 units)

Atlanta Dream - Indiana Fever
Game 1
Atlanta Dream +4 @ 1.934 for 5 units (+4.67 units)
Game 2
Indiana Fever +5.5 @ 1.806 for 10 units (+8.06 units)

Seattle Storm - Minnesota Lynx
Game 1
Seattle Storm +13 @ 1.757 for 10 units (+7.57 units)
Under 149.5 @ 1.952 for 10 units (+9.52 units)
Game 2
Seattle +4.5 @ 1.885 for 10 units
Under 149 @ 1.847 for 10 units

kneighfe · 09-30-12, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by kneighfe

New York Liberty - Connecticut Sun
Game 1
Connecticut Sun -10.5 @ 2.38 for 10 units (-10.000 units)
Game 2
New York Liberty +4 @ 1.892 for 10 units (-10.000 units)

San Antonio Silver Stars - Los Angeles Sparks
Game 1
San Antonio Silver Stars +8.5 @ 1.751 for 5 units (+3.755 units)
Over 162.5 @ 1.819 for 10 units (+8.19 units)
Game 2
Under 167.5 @ 1.925 for 10 units (-10.000 units)
Los Angeles Sparks +4.5 @ 1.884 for 5 units (+4.42 units)

Atlanta Dream - Indiana Fever
Game 1
Atlanta Dream +4 @ 1.934 for 5 units (+4.67 units)
Game 2
Indiana Fever +5.5 @ 1.806 for 10 units (+8.06 units)

Seattle Storm - Minnesota Lynx
Game 1
Seattle Storm +13 @ 1.757 for 10 units (+7.57 units)
Under 149.5 @ 1.952 for 10 units (+9.52 units)
Game 2
Seattle +4.5 @ 1.885 for 10 units
Under 149 @ 1.847 for 10 units

1 additonal bet:
Seattle Storm +6 @ 1.926 for 10 units

kneighfe · 09-30-12, 08:24 PM

Live Bet:
Seattle Storm +9.5 @ 1.813 for 10 units

Seattle will definitely make a come back as it is their season on the line.

Halftime score:
Minnesota 37 @ Seattle 36

Hold on tight Seattle. Play tight defense and win the game so we can have game 3.

Second Half Bet:
Seattle Storm +5.5 @ 1.769 for 10 units

kneighfe · 09-30-12, 08:59 PM

Stay away from the 2nd half over under betting because it's a close game and with it, there is a tendency that if it is still too close in the 4th quarter, the team who is down will foul just to buy some time.

kneighfe · 09-30-12, 09:19 PM

Originally posted by kneighfe

Live Bet:
Seattle Storm +9.5 @ 1.813 for 10 units

Seattle will definitely make a come back as it is their season on the line.

Halftime score:
Minnesota 37 @ Seattle 36

Hold on tight Seattle. Play tight defense and win the game so we can have game 3.

Second Half Bet:
Seattle Storm +5.5 @ 1.769 for 10 units

Second half is getting scary... Minny is trying to break away.

IMPENDING DOOM!!!

Looks like they are Keeping Lauren Jackson fresh for the deciding quarter. Let's hope their defense will hold up and Seattle to pull through.

Live Bet:
Seattle Storm to win @ 2.070 for 10 units
Current Score: 65 - 65

Live Bet:
Seattle Storm to win @ 3.500 for 5 units
Current Score: 75 - 75

bleek88 · 09-30-12, 09:25 PM

Playing SEA looked too easy, i stayed away and im glad.

bane · 09-30-12, 11:44 PM

Nice hit! Tailed you on Seattle +4.5. Thanks for sharing your picks.

kneighfe · 09-30-12, 11:56 PM

CURRENT RECORD: 13W - 4L +63.315 UNITS

New York Liberty - Connecticut Sun
Game 1
Connecticut Sun -10.5 @ 2.38 for 10 units (-10.000 units)
Game 2
New York Liberty +4 @ 1.892 for 10 units (-10.000 units)

San Antonio Silver Stars - Los Angeles Sparks
Game 1
San Antonio Silver Stars +8.5 @ 1.751 for 5 units (+3.755 units)
Over 162.5 @ 1.819 for 10 units (+8.19 units)
Game 2
Under 167.5 @ 1.925 for 10 units (-10.000 units)
Los Angeles Sparks +4.5 @ 1.884 for 5 units (+4.42 units)

Atlanta Dream - Indiana Fever
Game 1
Atlanta Dream +4 @ 1.934 for 5 units (+4.67 units)
Game 2
Indiana Fever +5.5 @ 1.806 for 10 units (+8.06 units)

Seattle Storm - Minnesota Lynx
Game 1
Seattle Storm +13 @ 1.757 for 10 units (+7.57 units)
Under 149.5 @ 1.952 for 10 units (+9.52 units)
Game 2
Seattle +4.5 @ 1.885 for 10 units (+8.850 units)
Under 149 @ 1.847 for 10 units (-10.000 units)
Seattle Storm +6 @ 1.926 for 10 units (+9.260 units)
Seattle Storm +9.5 @ 1.813 for 10 units [placed after 1st qtr with score at 18-27] (+8.130 units)
Seattle Storm +5.5 @ 1.769 for 10 units [placed at halftime with score at 36-37] (+7.690 units)
Seattle Storm to win @ 2.070 for 10 units [placed with score tied at 65] (+10.700 units)
Seattle Storm to win @ 3.500 for 5 units [placed with score tied at 75] (+12.500 units)

clting08 · 10-01-12, 05:48 AM

Originally posted by kneighfe

CURRENT RECORD: 13W - 4L +63.315 UNITS

New York Liberty - Connecticut Sun
Game 1
Connecticut Sun -10.5 @ 2.38 for 10 units (-10.000 units)
Game 2
New York Liberty +4 @ 1.892 for 10 units (-10.000 units)

San Antonio Silver Stars - Los Angeles Sparks
Game 1
San Antonio Silver Stars +8.5 @ 1.751 for 5 units (+3.755 units)
Over 162.5 @ 1.819 for 10 units (+8.19 units)
Game 2
Under 167.5 @ 1.925 for 10 units (-10.000 units)
Los Angeles Sparks +4.5 @ 1.884 for 5 units (+4.42 units)

Atlanta Dream - Indiana Fever
Game 1
Atlanta Dream +4 @ 1.934 for 5 units (+4.67 units)
Game 2
Indiana Fever +5.5 @ 1.806 for 10 units (+8.06 units)

Seattle Storm - Minnesota Lynx
Game 1
Seattle Storm +13 @ 1.757 for 10 units (+7.57 units)
Under 149.5 @ 1.952 for 10 units (+9.52 units)
Game 2
Seattle +4.5 @ 1.885 for 10 units (+8.850 units)
Under 149 @ 1.847 for 10 units (-10.000 units)
Seattle Storm +6 @ 1.926 for 10 units (+9.260 units)
Seattle Storm +9.5 @ 1.813 for 10 units [placed after 1st qtr with score at 18-27] (+8.130 units)
Seattle Storm +5.5 @ 1.769 for 10 units [placed at halftime with score at 36-37] (+7.690 units)
Seattle Storm to win @ 2.070 for 10 units [placed with score tied at 65] (+10.700 units)
Seattle Storm to win @ 3.500 for 5 units [placed with score tied at 75] (+12.500 units)

9fives · 10-01-12, 11:41 PM

I'm going with a 4-team parlay for GAME 3:

Fever -4 + OVER 154.5
Lynx -10.5 + OVER 147.5

kneighfe · 10-02-12, 12:08 AM

Originally posted by 9fives

I'm going with a 4-team parlay for GAME 3:

Fever -4 + OVER 154.5
Lynx -10.5 + OVER 147.5

If you're decided about it, you should only put your 2 cents. I think the Fever will win and CAN cover but nothing is certain as it is a do or die game and because of that, it might also be a low scoring game. Remember Game 1 finished with only a total of 141 (75-66) and Game 2 with a total of 103-88 so you can't really tell.

For the Lynx game, I think the Lynx will win but -10.5 will be a tough cover. Lauren Jackson played only a portion of the 3rd quarter and the Storm were outscored 22-17 but what happened in the 4th? She played the whole quarter and the result was a low scoring quarter and a quarter won by the Storm, 17-11.

I still have not decided on my bets for both of these do or die games. If I were you try to dig more and think about your bet. Better put it on singles. One loss in a parlay will cost you money but 1 loss in 4 single bets will give you GREEN.

9fives · 10-02-12, 12:45 AM

I figure both of these do or die games will go toe to toe in the first 3 quarters, then Fever and Lynx will go full throttle in the 4th to make a statement at home. I am only risking 1.0 units on this parlay just to enjoy a couple games on my day off of work. I suppose I am do-or-die on these games as well! Thank you very much for your input and I am interested in where you put your money on these Game 3's.

kneighfe · 10-02-12, 09:36 AM

Atlanta Dream vs Indiana Fever Game 3

The Eastern Conference Finals and their respective seasons on the line, it's either they realize a Dream or keep the Fever burning.

Making this plain and simple, the Fever will win this game right from the get go. It won't be as lopsided as it was on Game 2 but they will do enough to cover. They have more than enough motivation, they won't allow themselves to get eliminated for the 2nd straight time in 2 years at home and against the very same team.

I don't want to touch the scoreline because you can see in their matchups even in the regular seasonthat they can either burn the hoops or lock each other down.

FINAL VERDICT:
Indiana Fever -4 @ 2.010 for 10 units
Indiana Fever -3.5 @ 1.925 for 10 units

kneighfe · 10-02-12, 09:56 AM

Seattle Storm vs Minnesota Lynx Game 3

Can the Lynx weather the Storm?

For me, there is no doubt that the Lynx will win this game as they have a better team and homecourt advantage but to cover the 11 point spread against a defensive Storm team with a Lauren Jackson who has yet to show up on offense? I'm telling you, even forthe Champion Lynx it will be tough.

The line for the score is too sharp and with the game being played at Minnesota which is team loaded on offense, you can expect that they will put up points andwith the gamemost likely going to be decided in the 4th quarter, the scoreline will bevery hard to predict as it can easily go over with a flurry of fouls just to buy time but then again,youcannevercountout the Storm's defense so I amstaying away from the scoreline.

I think Sue Bird summarized not only what happened in Game 2 but theseries itself:

"Everybody who plays basketball knows it's a game of runs. That was their run, and we knew we were going to get ours,'' Bird said. ``At that point, it would be very easy to put your head down and go, `Oh, we're down, there they go,' and let them go up by 20 or 25 points. But we never hung our heads and knew we would have an opportunity to do it.''

FINAL VERDICT:
Seattle Storm +11 @ 1.800 for 5 units

kneighfe · 10-02-12, 10:04 AM

PARLAY:
Indiana Fever @ 1.571
Minnesota Lynx @ 1.61
1 double @ 1.823 for 10 units

SaMSoLeeT · 10-02-12, 12:01 PM

So your playing storm and lynx.........confused

kneighfe · 10-02-12, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by SaMSoLeeT

So your playing storm and lynx.........confused

Only playing Lynx on the moneyline for a parlay. Lynx will win but I don't think they will cover.

talbotia · 10-02-12, 12:43 PM

Yea. Seattle will be hungry but IMO will still come up short. Like the parlay for a little extra value