[5mike5]

Alright fellas we are off and running for the 2018 NASCAR season and after a long few weeks at Daytona we are now moving on to the real handicapping for the new season at ATLANTA motorspeedway...hopefully we can keep up the winning after a good 500 showing on picks...There is always a lot to still learn from every new season so there is still a "feeling out" period to see how the teams and drivers react to any off-season changes and this week is when that really starts..

All 3 series will be in action this weekend, and Saturday is a Xfinity and Truck series race double-header starting early Saturday afternoon...The Cup race will be held Saturday afternoon at 2pm

ATLANTA is a uniquely shaped 1.54 quad oval...The banking in all 4 of the turns is 24 degrees and the straightaways are just 5 degrees...This racetrack's surface is VERY OLD and worn out, which means it eats tires for breakfast, lunch and dinner...every caution they will pit for tires because the fall off with even a few laps on tires is too much not to...its always a interesting and fun race and 1 of my fav racetracks on the whole circuit and dont get why we race here only 1 time a year....The track was suppose to be repaved after last years race, but drivers threw a fit and they postponed the repave til this spring...so this should be the last race on this surface...which is sad

This is a drivers racetrack, with as many different racing lanes as any track on the circuit...drivers can go anywhere they choose but the preferred lane is usually against the wall, and there are several guys who love the live up there...


As always, everybody's picks,thoughts, and opinions are always welcome here every week...started reviewing past Atlanta Cup races and my track/Driver notebooks this morning so just need to wait on the Opening #s to post-up...heres to another successful weekend!

[5mike5]

odds should post up tonight or in the morning...

My plan is to not box myself in with many early picks this week, just looking for the best value early with a lot of question yet to be answered on a standard cookie cutter track...practices are never a must see for me, and i don't put near as much emphasis on practices as most cappers do...current form and past track history are WAY more important to me...

and ill also be using open parlays on at least 1 lower series winner, because there is a lot of Cup drivers racing in the 2 lower series races and odds will be very low..It is just a tool i have used for years...and close with a Cup play on sundays (if they make it)

[Auto Donk]

this week will be easier....

look for the penske boys (2 and 22), bush brothers, elliot or harvick to win....

1 of those six should bring home the checkers

[5mike5]

this week will be easier....

look for the penske boys (2 and 22), bush brothers, elliot or harvick to win....

1 of those six should bring home the checkers

I'll add Larson to that group

[5mike5]

I'll add Larson to that group

but his driving style he may also be in the wall too much by the end lol

I am anxious to see the opening odds

[Heltah Skeltah]

Looking forward to your picks Mike!! Let's get that money

[5mike5]

Looking forward to your picks Mike!! Let's get that money

[Auto Donk]

this week will be easier....

look for the penske boys (2 and 22), bush brothers, elliot or harvick to win....

1 of those six should bring home the checkers

forgot truex; he'll probably show up big as well.... one of those 7 should be bring it home

[mikejamm]

Nice write up Mike.

[5mike5]

odds are posted

[CarolinaDaze]

Dm didn't see much value with the favorites on openers. Gonna have to get creative later this week to get a couple of them on my card. Took a stab at 2 long shots ( Kurt Busch +3300 & Erik Jones +2250).

[Optional]

NASCAR Cup Series Folds of Honor Quiktrip 500

Kyle Larson +500
Kevin Harvick +500
Martin Truex Jr +650
Kyle Busch +650
Chase Elliot +650
Jimmie Johnson +850
Brad Keselowski +1350
Denny Hamlin +1650
Joey Logano +1650
Erik Jones +2250
Ryan Blaney +2750
Clint Bowyer +3300
Kurt Busch +3300
Alex Bowman +3300
Jamie McMurray +6600
William Byron +6600
Daniel Suarez +6600
Aric Almirola +6600
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +10000
Austin Dillon +10000
Ryan Newman +10000
Paul Menard +20000
Trevor Bayne +30000
Darrell Wallace Jr +30000
Ty Dillon +30000
Kasey Kahne +50000
AJ Allmendinger +50000
Chris Buescher +100000
Michael McDowell +500000

Those 7 Dutched = +107


Xfinity Rinnai 250
Fri 2/23 1:05PM
Joey Logano +275
Kevin Harvick +300
Christopher Bell +750
Cole Custer +850
Elliott Sadler +1350
Justin Allgaier +1350
Kyle Benjamin +1650
Tyler Reddick +1650
John Hunter Nemechek +1650
Brandon Jones +1650
Ty Dillon +2750
Daniel Hemric +3300
Austin Cindric +3750
Chase Briscoe +6600
Ryan Truex +10000
Kaz Grala +10000
Matt Tifft +10000
Ryan Reed +20000
Michael Annett +30000

Those 3 Dutched = +186


Trucks Active Pest Control 200

Kyle Busch -160
Johnny Sauter +550
Matt Crafton +1150
Ben Rhodes +1350
Noah Gragson +1350
Brett Moffitt +1650
Justin Haley +2150
Grant Enfringer +2150
Spencer Davis +2150
Dalton Sargeant +3300
Parker Kligerman +3300
Stewart Friesen +5500
Myatt Snider +5500
Joe Nemechek +5500
Cody Coughlin +10000

[reigle9]

Ugly.

Only bet across the board is small on rhodes.

Xfinity will be fun once cup guys aren't running. Lot of potential winners this year.

[5mike5]

crazy part is some have even got worse

maybe some of the worst odds i can ever remember seeing on openers

jesus

[5mike5]

i expected terrible odds for Kyle in trucks, figured id parlay him at -125 or so\

opening -150 and now -200?! dont see that happening now

not good

[Optional]

I think Kyle will come back to -150 or better for trucks at some stage

[Optional]

We won't have 5 drivers at +650 or worse after practice.

Need to pick out the one who will emerge fave to bet now and leave the rest until later I think.

[5mike5]

We won't have 5 drivers at +650 or worse after practice.

Need to pick out the one who will emerge fave to bet now and leave the rest until later I think.

yeah i mean you cant bet more than 1 at the most without boxing urslf in pretty bad....

im planning on trying 1-2 parlays with lower series and use with cup fav or combo but shit that kyle B price for trucks is brutal....guessing ill use logano for sure in xfinity....maybe a matchup parlay but not sure on that

Pretty sure harvick is in the #98 and not a SHR car this week for xfinity....

[5mike5]

I think Kyle will come back to -150 or better for trucks at some stage

i hope so, i cant use -200 but maybe i can -150 lol

[5mike5]

Dm didn't see much value with the favorites on openers. Gonna have to get creative later this week to get a couple of them on my card. Took a stab at 2 long shots ( Kurt Busch +3300 & Erik Jones +2250).

I like Kurt's odds too

[Optional]

"Truex’s average finish last year in 11 races at 1.5-mile tracks was 2.4. In the last six 1.5-mile races of the season, he had five victories and one runner-up. The four 1.5-mile races he didn’t win last year were Atlanta (finished 8th), the first Charlotte race (finished 3rd) and the two Texas races (finished 8th and 2nd)."

From Micah Roberts

[5mike5]

Not sure that I will be betting any of the crazy low favs early...will be looking at open parlaying 1-2 things from the lower series, Like Logano in xfinity...not sure about Kyle b in trucks yet, just depends if the risk is worth it depending on is odds... thing i know is i will probably have my man Larson for sure...

[CarolinaDaze]

I like Kurt's odds too

A driver who's averaged a 8th place finish (7th & 4th last 2 years) & led a few laps each race (89 total) the last 3 times he raced in Atlanta. So win or lose I'll take a 33 to 1 stab on him, especially after seeing opening favorites odds.

[Brick]

Can anyone point me in the right direction for the book that has best odds on the most consistant basis? Usually isnt bookmaker, but they had surprisingly good odds compared to others for the 500.

I havent placed any wagers yet but will be with you on Larson this week Mike, there isnt one guy faster than him when his car is dialed in up on the wall. Wont have much time to check anything out this week so look forward to you guys insight.

[Brick]

Trucks Active Pest Control 200

Kyle Busch -160
Johnny Sauter +550
Matt Crafton +1150
Ben Rhodes +1350
Noah Gragson +1350
Brett Moffitt +1650
Justin Haley +2150
Grant Enfringer +2150
Spencer Davis +2150
Dalton Sargeant +3300
Parker Kligerman +3300
Stewart Friesen +5500
Myatt Snider +5500
Joe Nemechek +5500
Cody Coughlin +10000

Holy shit Busch opened -160 and up to -200 now? How can anyone bet that? Guarantee if i lay those odds on him a piece of debris punctures his gas tank on the 2nd to last lap and he gets passed up right before the line.

[Optional]

Can anyone point me in the right direction for the book that has best odds on the most consistant basis? Usually isnt bookmaker, but they had surprisingly good odds compared to others for the 500.

I havent placed any wagers yet but will be with you on Larson this week Mike, there isnt one guy faster than him when his car is dialed in up on the wall. Wont have much time to check anything out this week so look forward to you guys insight.

You need a few books as odds vary a fair bit between books over the week.

For openers 5Dimes is pretty much always best. But they get bet down pretty fast. Greek has early openers and decent odds. 5D pretty much follows their lead but offers a little better on most for openers. But Greek slower to adjust so if you cant stay up all night sweating 5D to get the best odds, then Greek usually a good place to look.

Betonline has a lot less options but you can often bet the ones that moved most from openers on 5D there at better odds. And they also offer trucks and Xfinity whihc a lot of books don't.

Bovada sounds like it is useful too but I can't use them from Australia. Bookmaker a bit limited and never best odds.

With access to UK/Aussie books, I can often find wild differences in odds, especially later in the week. Could get Blaney at 25/1 on day of Daytona 500 when he had been bet down to 10/1 at all the US facing books for example.

[5mike5]

im gonna look over some matchups today, may find an early 1 that I like

[Optional]

im gonna look over some matchups today, may find an early 1 that I like

Once you start getting hot on head to heads I plan to tail them straight. So the earlier you let us know your H2H leans this year the better by me.


Has everyone noticed we can now bet Head 2 Heads in the SBR Book too?

https://sportsbook.sportsbookreview....nes.aspx?lg=83

[Optional]

And speaking of Head 2 Heads.

Would be good if we could get a few more players in the Weekly Head to Head Contest too

[5mike5]

And speaking of Head 2 Heads.

Would be good if we could get a few more players in the Weekly Head to Head Contest too

im gonna play again this week

i like that contest

[5mike5]

Once you start getting hot on head to heads I plan to tail them straight. So the earlier you let us know your H2H leans this year the better by me.


Has everyone noticed we can now bet Head 2 Heads in the SBR Book too?

https://sportsbook.sportsbookreview....nes.aspx?lg=83

yeah gonna take a few races to get tuned in bit ill post them as soon as i decide

[CarolinaDaze]

Quick question for you Mike, I opened a 3 Team/Leg open parlay yesterday, first 2 legs I picked Basketball games (Both -110), when I won both I went to take one of the Race Favorites for leg 3, BUT it would not let me , it only offered me The Match Ups. Why would it not offer me the chance to use one of the race favorites ??? I was thinking this was how you used it last year?

[5mike5]

Quick question for you Mike, I opened a 3 Team/Leg open parlay yesterday, first 2 legs I picked Basketball games (Both -110), when I won both I went to take one of the Race Favorites for leg 3, BUT it would not let me , it only offered me The Match Ups. Why would it not offer me the chance to use one of the race favorites ??? I was thinking this was how you used it last year?

Race winning parlayables wont post until the morning of raceday

In cup it will offer u about the top 5-8 favorites by themselves, then offer several combos of 2-3 guys, whole teams ect...

In the 2 lower series, its after qualifying on raceday they will offer top 2 favs usually for parlayable winners

[CarolinaDaze]

Race winning parlayables wont post until the morning of raceday

In cup it will offer u about the top 5-8 favorites by themselves, then offer several combos of 2-3 guys, whole teams ect...

In the 2 lower series, its after qualifying on raceday they will offer top 2 favs usually for parlayable winners

Gotcha I had the feeling it might be the ones posted later in the week. Oh well I did play another CBB game and hit it, so those winnings will help out this weekend. Thanks for the info Bro.

[5mike5]

NP CD

u can also parlay most matchups with race winners (single or 2-3 combos offered from the same race)..they sometimes wont let u say use a h2h with Logano winning and Keslowski winning the race.....and u can use parlayed race winners from lower as well with any Cup parlayable which is what i like doing along with just matchups from lower series....The thing u can not do is parlay anything with a Team or car manu. in the same race (u can from different races) and u can use to close any parlay on its last-leg