Easysaid - Rugby Union Picks

[easysaid]

Where is this on bet365???
All i see is australia vs South africa & New zealand/argentina?

Rugby union, correct?

Honestly as far as the SA vs AUS games goes it would be hard to make pick, deans will under ridiculous pressure after getting thrashed by the AB's and will look for redmeption. Not to mention South Africans drawing against the Pumas last week(huge upset) and dont think they are playing their best rugby right now.. maybe due to their lineup (few players were missng) Im not sure. However Id only bet on this game if Jacques du Plessis is out and if cooper is in the starting in the backline.

Oh and not to mention the weather would have to be good!

If this were the case id probably lay a small wager on AUS -4 as this line is pretty sharp.

Cheers

[TheCalculator]

The line is -1 today in Bet365. Any news come out that made the line move?

[benandjerry]

The line is -1 today in Bet365. Any news come out that made the line move?

Are you referring to the 3way handicap with draw as an option? Pretty sure they opened -1.5, and now they seemed to have moved it to -2.5.

[easysaid]

Are you referring to the 3way handicap with draw as an option? Pretty sure they opened -1.5, and now they seemed to have moved it to -2.5.

Yeah, bet365 seem to most of their ITM cup lines from TAB (except their totals), so obviously their opening line was a bit low.

[TheCalculator]

Ok -- then I should be good. I scooped 4 units at -1.5.

[brettels]

-3 manukau still good?

[maroona]

Brettels hows the AFL season treating you, there seems to be no AFL talk here any more, what happened..

[brettels]

Brettels hows the AFL season treating you, there seems to be no AFL talk here any more, what happened..

I was having a terrible season but cut it off a couple months ago when the old man discovered he had cancer, he has passed away since and I've only recently came back.

Might make a thread for finals for everyone else to fade

How has your season treated you?

ITM cup is new to me but I liked the look of it over the weekend so here's to something new.

[hawley]

I was having a terrible season but cut it off a couple months ago when the old man discovered he had cancer, he has passed away since and I've only recently came back.

Might make a thread for finals for everyone else to fade

How has your season treated you?

ITM cup is new to me but I liked the look of it over the weekend so here's to something new.

Sorry to hear about your old man

[hawley]

Counties have gone from 1.75 to 1.57 at TAB today

[brettels]

Sorry to hear about your old man

Thanks.

I went safe on Counties and took the ML in the 1.6's just to be safe as my luck would be they win by 2 points and the line is out to 3.

[TBsp75]

another easy win. north harbor jst playin really bad rugby. why they keep kickin the ball back when u losin by 2 trys. if its not rainin counties will win by at least 20.

[easysaid]

Got a bit worried this morning after seeing the forecast, knew the counties backline would dominate with the likes of Nanai-Williams & Halai but wasn't 100% convinced with their foward pack. For those that dont watch much rugby when the weather is bad rugby turns into more of a strength game (better foward pack tend to win). Luckly harbours front row had a mental collapse tonight and let us walk all over them. YAY 9-0 baby!

[maroona]

I was having a terrible season but cut it off a couple months ago when the old man discovered he had cancer, he has passed away since and I've only recently came back.

Might make a thread for finals for everyone else to fade

How has your season treated you?

ITM cup is new to me but I liked the look of it over the weekend so here's to something new.

Yeah sorry to hear that, been fairly quiet myself lately but I'll make an effort during the finals, ITM cup is good for midweek action..

[maroona]

Got a bit worried this morning after seeing the forecast, knew the counties backline would dominate with the likes of Nanai-Williams & Halai but wasn't 100% convinced with their foward pack. For those that dont watch much rugby when the weather is bad rugby turns into more of a strength game (better foward pack tend to win). Luckly harbours front row had a mental collapse tonight and let us walk all over them. YAY 9-0 baby!

Good stuff mate, looks like your on fire..

[TBsp75]

For those that dont watch much rugby when the weather is bad rugby turns into more of a strength game (better foward pack tend to win).

any thoughts on AB v Puma game this weekend easy?(u should change ur name to easywin haha). according to forecast its gonna be decent rain n 50km wind in wellington. puma has a good forward pack u reckon they can keep the score close?

[easysaid]

Yeah even with the weather good i was leaning towards the +27.5 PUMAS.
But the safer bet would be the under on this game, Argentina aren't going to score much (never do with their limited attack) and i cant see the AB's racking up 35+ points (With wet weather this is extremely hard for any team). Im going to play this for -

5 Units if the projected is total 40 or more
2 Units Argentina +27.5

[easysaid]

Laying off the game tonight, northland are playing awesome rugby at the moment and have beaten last years grand finalist in their opening matches, on the other hand manawatu returns from a heavy beating and will look to keep the games in their reach. If the line wasn't so steep I would have taken northland minus the points but -13 is a lot to cover, so no play tonight sorry guys.

[TBsp75]

bet365 has it at 45.5, tab 46, looks like an other easy win $$ cheers mate,
prob jst gonna wait for another day to c the line up and made sure the forecast still da same(nz forecast cannot be trusted) b4 i decide how many units gonna bet.

[hawley]

You may not have given it much thought yet but do you like BOP -2.5 /$1.70 ML against Counties on friday?

I can see them battling with that short turnaround.

I don't know these teams very well but was that a full strength Counties team last night?

[easysaid]

Current Pick - Otago -1 over Southland for 3 Units

This line is only this low because the bookmakers think Southland are a strong home team (when they feed off the crowd they play well i'll admit) but they are no way near as good as they were last season (not to mention they peak late). Id say 8/10 times Otago should win this game as they are definitely the better side, so for the great value im going to lay 3 units. Goodluck all!

TBsp id jump on that AB's/Pumas under 46, lines going to drop closer to kickoff.

[Mase of Base]

You may not have given it much thought yet but do you like BOP -2.5 /$1.70 ML against Counties on friday?

I can see them battling with that short turnaround.

I don't know these teams very well but was that a full strength Counties team last night?

The side that started was. They subbed alot of guys early in the second half with this game in mind I assume so they get a decent rest and Harbour hardly test them physically, should be a decent game.


Easysaid you're killing it mate, keep it up! Southland have been screwed by these new rules and haven't adopted a game plan to counter this yet. They were a side that ground out victories up front but with the five second rule it's just too hard to make massive ground this way now as a guy will eventually be isolated and the opposition will get a turnover.

[easysaid]

The side that started was. They subbed alot of guys early in the second half with this game in mind I assume so they get a decent rest and Harbour hardly test them physically, should be a decent game.


Easysaid you're killing it mate, keep it up! Southland have been screwed by these new rules and haven't adopted a game plan to counter this yet. They were a side that ground out victories up front but with the five second rule it's just too hard to make massive ground this way now as a guy will eventually be isolated and the opposition will get a turnover.

Well put and they will struggle against an otago team that is used to a faster style of rugby. Cant see them adapting for a while after years of playing the "grind-it-out" style.

and Hawley id probably lay off that game as the counties side is full of young & fit players (most of their backline played in the sevens competition) and shouldnt have a huge problem with turnaround, this is going to be a tight game infact i would even be favoured towards counties slightly. Cheers!

[easysaid]

Current Record 9-0-0 +27 Units

Current picks -

Otago -1 over Southland - 3 Units
New Zealand/Argentina game total under 45.5 Points - 4 Units

So annoying how the ITM Cup lines come out 24 hours before kickoff on Bet365, there are some lines at the TAB that deserved to be pounded :/

[TBsp75]

dan injured, aaron start xv, beauden on bench. u think gonna affect much to AB & taranaki match?

[easysaid]

Woah thanks for the update will definitely keep away from the taranaki game now, barret might look like frodo but when he plays well he can carve apart any ITM cup (even the mighty cantabs). This is good news for our bet cruden is not on the the same level as DC this game wont be a blowout, most defnitely not. Id definitely recommend going big on the AB/Pumas under.

[RobertPaulson]

Hey easy, i'm going with you on Otago. You got any concerns bout the line move?

[TBsp75]

i like otago as well, just tat i already made my bet b4 the line moved
oh well, can't predict the line anyway

[easysaid]

Nah no concerns, the sqaures are just living off southlands success last year.

Line movement is because of torrential rain (southland are usually better at this style of rugby).

[sweepem]

10-0

[nosaij]

bloody nice mate

[TBsp75]

gonna be 11-0 pretty soon

[easysaid]

exactly ^ under 45.5 should really be a 10 unit play but im not one to go huge, guys seriously this is an easy winner.

[TheCalculator]

What's the weather forecast?

[hawley]

That total for the Taranaki game seems quite low? Something I am missing?