Bic's 2012 AFL Season Thread

[Bic]

Tough game tonight, no point trying to find an edge. Sit back and enjoy.

Lean is either team under 15 points

[benrama]

the 1-39 both ways looks like free money doesn't it - which usually means it isn't!

[Bic]

Second thoughts. Love fading heavy money on a Friday night. A lot of late money on the pies. They are now favourites. Value is with Carlton now, will try and get them close to 2.00 as possible

[Crowing Capers]

Spot on Bic... Flip a coin on tonights game and total score.
Sitting back Getting on the tubes backing blues 1-39 for a bit of interest.
Big weekend on the punt , let's get em

[MatI]

Second thoughts. Love fading heavy money on a Friday night. A lot of late money on the pies. They are now favourites. Value is with Carlton now, will try and get them close to 2.00 as possible

Yeah, early money was going on Carlton but it seems lots of public money going onto Pies.

I don't think it will move from PK though, id be very surprised if you can get Carlton @ 2.00 by game start. I took blues ML a couple of days ago, so i've missed out on some value. GL.

[Bic]

Carlton ML @1.952 x0.5

Good luck guys

[Pride]

nice hit. hard to see the pies coming back in this one. blues are just too strong

[Bic]

Woohoo! Fade those pies!

[benrama]

Good call mate, Carlton are in for a big year, Pies maybe not so much

[Bic]

This may sound crazy, but I am really liking Melbourne with the points...

Also leaning Sydney.

[Bic]

Melbourne +31.5 @1.909 x1

Sydney -13.5 @2.020 x1

[Bic]

St Kilda -12.5 @1.926 x1

[Bic]

Oh yeahhhh!

[Bic]

Round 3 Summary

BET	ODDS	UNITS RISKED	WIN/LOSS	PROFIT/LOSS
Carlton ML	1.952	0.5	WIN	+0.476
Melbourne +31.5	1.909	1	LOSS	-1
Sydney -13.5	2.020	1	WIN	+1.2
St Kilda -12.5	1.926	1	WIN	+0.926
				= +1.602

Season Total for 2012: +12.098 Units @ 14-5 = 73.68 %

Didn't place as many bets this round, but 3/4 you will take every week

Have been keeping a close eye on the odds this round, and it is shaping to be another tougher week. Make sure you keep an eye out

[kingsr]

Nice job bic...great record keep it up!

[Bic]

Round 4


Carlton -40.5 @2.03 x1


Tough spot for Essendon here. Look for Carlton to runaway with this one late as Essendon look to ANZAC Day.

[Bic]

Michael Johnson more DT points than Sam Fisher @2.20 x0.5
Nick Riewoldt more DT points than Matthew Pavlich @1.95 x0.5

These can be made at Centrebet

[Bic]

2 from 2 to start the round! Both underdog bets.

Looking for Carlton to continue their dominance over a look ahead Essendon who will rest players if the deficit grows large.

Really want to take the Eagles against hawthorn, really angry
I didn't pull the trigger sooner, I hate missing a better line!

[Bic]

West Coast -6.5 @1.91 x1.5
Greater Western Sydney +90.5 @1.91 x1

[Bic]

Really like this play for today!

Joel Selwood more disposals than Trent Cotchin @1.85 x2

[Bic]

Selwood delivers another win. I think I'm 100% so far this season with DT/possession bets.

Last one for the round:

Melbourne/Western Bulldogs UNDER 185.5 @1.88 x1

[johno35]

Good stuff Bic, good to see you show how many units and keep the record up to date. I've never really looked at player vs player as far as disposals and D/T points, which sportsbook do you use?

[Bic]

Good stuff Bic, good to see you show how many units and keep the record up to date. I've never really looked at player vs player as far as disposals and D/T points, which sportsbook do you use?

Hey mate, for player vs player and dt points I use Centrebet. They're not bad, and have a lot of special offers, free bets etc. they're odds could be better for game totals though.

Good to see another win with the under cashing. Will summarize the round sometime during the week. Another winning week though

[Degenerate]

Nice round mate, pity with west coast just not covering.

[Coopertrooper]

I think all of the books are pretty tight on the points markets now. Most places don't want to give more than 1.88

[Bic]

Round 4 Summary

BET	ODDS	UNITS RISKED	WIN/LOSS	PROFIT/LOSS
Michael Johnson more DT points than Sam Fisher	2.20	0.5	WIN	+0.6
Nick Riewoldt more DT points than Matthew Pavlich	1.95	0.5	WIN	+0.475
Carlton -40.5	2.03	1	LOSS	-1
Greater Western Sydney +90.5	1.91	1	WIN	+0.91
West Coast -6.5	1.91	1.5	LOSS	-1.5
Joel Selwood more disposals than Trent Cotchin	1.85	2	WIN	+1.7
Melbourne/Western Bulldogs UNDER 185.5	1.88	1	WIN	+0.88
				= +2.065

Season Total for 2012: +14.163 Units @ 19-7 = 73.08 %

The grind continues. All that matters is it is another positive round. Look out for a play in the next couple of days, with the ANZAC day game. Always fun playing that game.

[kingsr]

Collingwood is too much value to pass up! $1.75 WTF?

Note* Sportingbet have a promo.... 40% bonus payout if your team wins by 30+

[Bic]

I think it's Sportsbet that have a bonus, if your team is winning at HT and lose, you get your money back.

[Bic]

Round 5

ANZAC DAY GAME

Collingwood/Essendon UNDER 176.5 @1.91 x2.5

Essendon +5.5 @2.11 x1

The rain!

[Bic]

What a great game! Thought Essendon stole another win there....

Oh well, another 2 bets won! Handy 3.5 units worth

[Bic]

Mitch Robinson more disposals than Greg Broughton @1.70 x1.5
Carlton win between 1-39 points @2.42 x0.5

I missed this at a better price, still like it. Get on it. Broughton to play back pocket on one of Carlton's smalls.

[Bic]

Pretty poor game, but another 2 from 2! Makes it 4 from 4 for round 5

[Bic]

Western Bulldogs H/T -32.5 @1.91 x1.5

[Bic]

Jack Ziebell 26 disposals or over @1.90 x2

(Centrebet)

[Bic]

Melbourne/St Kilda UNDER 170.5 @1.88 x1