Bic's 2012 AFL Season Thread

garygroundwork · 03-24-12, 05:53 AM

unlucky mate, sydney had all the play and coudn't put the damage the scoreboard (with the excpetion of the 3rd quarter.) they are a frustrating side.

Bic · 03-24-12, 06:21 AM

Was a shocking last quarter. 1 goal 8 behinds.

garygroundwork · 03-24-12, 06:25 AM

14 16 they kicked..shithouse

Bic · 03-29-12, 01:14 AM

Carlton Blues -12.5 @1.952 x3

Classic Richmond hype. They lose by 4+ goals.

Coopertrooper · 03-29-12, 01:22 AM

Agree on taking the blues at the line, think they should be too good, and around 2 goals in is good value.

Bic · 03-30-12, 01:48 AM

A good win last night, what are peoples thoughts on tonight? I think both back lines are a little weak, in which case I see a high scoring affair in what would otherwise be a defensive battle. I think there is also value with Collingwood at the line, but this game has too many unpredictable factors to it.

garygroundwork · 03-30-12, 02:04 AM

Originally posted by Bic

A good win last night, what are peoples thoughts on tonight? I think both back lines are a little weak, in which case I see a high scoring affair in what would otherwise be a defensive battle. I think there is also value with Collingwood at the line, but this game has too many unpredictable factors to it.

agree 100 per cent and as a reult I don't think i will get involved. Hodge is a big out for the Hawks and don't be fooled by Collingwood's pre season form. Should be a very good game.

Bic · 03-30-12, 03:12 AM

Hawthorn/Collingwood OVER 175.5 @1.85 x1

Bic · 03-30-12, 04:09 AM

Wow... Kick straight!? Couldn't have missed easier shots at goal.

Bic · 03-30-12, 04:18 AM

Collingwood 2 goals 7..

Bic · 03-30-12, 06:00 AM

Good to know the players are hearing me

another good win.

Bic · 03-30-12, 06:56 PM

Adelaide -24.5 x5

I know it's the first round and my units this week are getting big, but I back my judgement and capping.

Adelaide's pre season form has been fantastic, and I think they carry this over against the inexperienced suns. With Bock out, they have nobody up forward. They will struggle to kick goals, whereby Adelaide have been free flowing. I think the line is showing too much respect to gold coast, they need to earn respect first.

Bic · 03-30-12, 09:40 PM

Sorry this is late, but I couldn't resist this one.

J.Trengove more disposals than J.McKenzie @1.90 x0.5

Like this one a lot. I think Trengove takes another step this year as he proves his no.2 draft pick. McKenzie is tricky though because he does rack up the handballs but Trengove has far more class and think he wins this by 2-5 possessions.

Bic · 03-31-12, 12:39 AM

Trengove, although rested most of the 4th, finishes with 1 more possession than McKenzie, closer than I would have liked but a win is a win. Nice streak starting here. 3-1 for the season, +1.627 units.

(I know to 3 decimal places sounds silly, but I like to keep it accurate)

Will post my bets for tonight's matches soon.

Get behind Adelaide!!

Bic · 03-31-12, 03:29 AM

Woo! Big 5 unit win

Liking a couple of underdogs tonight...

Fremantle +6.5 @1.99 x1

North Melbourne +3.5 @1.91 x1

Let's make it 5 and 6 in a row!

Bic · 03-31-12, 06:43 AM

Boom! Boom!

Another 2 wins taking both underdogs tonight

Takes our streak to 6 in a row!!

garygroundwork · 03-31-12, 08:48 AM

nice work mate!

Brian891 · 03-31-12, 08:48 AM

nice start! i was too nervous so early in the year after saints burned me in my first season last year, but congrats on the awesome start!!

Bic · 04-01-12, 01:23 AM

Thanks fellas.

Not going to touch today's games. Will take this momentum into next week. Might jump early on a few lines.

Will conclude round 1 when I get home.

Bic · 04-01-12, 05:22 PM

Round 1 Summary

BET	ODDS	UNITS RISKED	WIN/LOSS	PROFIT/LOSS
Sydney -88.5	@1.91	2.5	LOSS	-2.5
Carlton -12.5	@1.952	3	WIN	+2.857
Hawthorn/Collingwood OVER 175.5	@1.85	1	WIN	+0.85
Adelaide -24.5	@1.909	5	WIN	+4.545
J.Trengove more disposals than J.McKenzie	@1.90	0.5	WIN	+0.45
Fremantle +6.5	@1.99	1	WIN	+0.99
North Melbourne +3.5	@1.91	1	WIN	+0.91
				= +8.102

What a great start to the season!

Bic · 04-04-12, 08:19 AM

Round 2

Carlton -20.5 x2 @1.91

Collingwood -35.5 x1.5 @1.91

Bic · 04-05-12, 06:32 AM

Carlton dominating this game. Really happy with the output. On track for 7 in a row

Bic · 04-05-12, 07:08 AM

Another easy win!

Takes the streak to 7 in a row and over 10 units in the year

Bic · 04-06-12, 10:39 PM

Late money on Freo.

Fremantle +4.5 @1.952 x1

garygroundwork · 04-06-12, 11:36 PM

good luck mate

Bic · 04-07-12, 12:24 AM

Freo still a tease of a team. Streak is broken.

Bic · 04-07-12, 02:55 AM

Adding for tonights game:

Collingwood -35.5 @2.00 x1
Collingwood H/T -18.5 @1.91 x1
Luke Ball more DT points than Dustin Martin @1.87 x1

Bringing the total for tonight:

Collingwood -35.5 @1.91 x1.5
Collingwood -35.5 @2.00 x1
Collingwood H/T -18.5 @1.91 x1
Luke Ball more DT points than Dustin Martin @1.87 x1

Bic · 04-08-12, 01:17 AM

St Kilda -51.5 @1.909 x1

Bic · 04-08-12, 01:24 AM

St Kilda -25.5 half time @1.91 x2.5

Bic · 04-09-12, 12:07 AM

Good win last night.

Today's game is all about value.

Geelong +12.5 @2.02 x1

Too much value here. Geelong play Hawthon well and ye conditions will suit Geelong and hinder the hawks kicking style. This is going to be a ripper game.

garygroundwork · 04-09-12, 01:25 AM

good bet. this game was too tight for me to touch. geelong need to be at their best to not let hawthorn run away with this... a free kick in their forward 50 might help too, considering hawthorn have had about 5

Bic · 04-09-12, 02:53 AM

Great win with the Cats!!! Everything as predicted. The day suited the Cats.

This makes it 2 rounds in the green in a row.

Back soon with summary.

garygroundwork · 04-09-12, 02:55 AM

good work mate!!

Bic · 04-09-12, 03:20 AM

Round 2 Summary

BET	ODDS	UNITS RISKED	WIN/LOSS	PROFIT/LOSS
Carlton -20.5	1.91	2	WIN	+1.82
Fremantle +4.5	1.952	1	LOSS	-1.00
Collingwood H/T -18.5	1.91	1	LOSS	-1.00
Collingwood -35.5	1.91	1.5	LOSS	-1.50
Collingwood -35.5	2.00	1	-	-1
Luke Ball more DT points than Dustin Martin	1.87	1	WIN	+0.87
St Kilda H/T -25.5	1.91	2.5	WIN	+2.275
St Kilda -51.5	1.909	1	WIN	+0.909
Geelong +12.5	2.02	1	WIN	+1.02
				= +2.394

Season Total for 2012: +10.496 Units @ 11-4 = 73.33 %

I am counting the same bet (with different odds) as one bet in the win/loss column for obvious reasons.

Not as profitable as last week, but you would take this every week for 24 weeks.

Most disappointing result was Collingwood letting a winning lead slip in the last, and being half a point short for the half time line. Learning a lot about Fremantle, still struggling to travel.

Can't wait for next week!