dRavidC's NRL 2012

[dRavidC]

NRL Friday 26/7 27/7

Have taken a 2 week layoff but am now back and ready to hopefully come away with a few winners from this week's NRL.

2* St George vs Melbourne UNDER 37.5 LOSS

We kick off the round with a team that's been winning games on the back of their defence against a side that was unstoppable early in the season and have quietly lost 4 of their past 5 games. The past 5 St George games have averaged 36 points and the past 5 Melbourne games have averaged 37.2 points so as you can see the 37.5 set by the bookmarkers is just about spot on. Melbourne welcome back Slater which will really help their attack which was only able to muster 10 points against the lowly eels. This game is equally important and crucial for both sides, Melbourne to stay in touch with the dogs at the top of the ladder and St George who are just 2 points out of the top 8 but have a poor differential. Hence, I see this game being a tough and tight battle and both teams should be desperate in defence. It's hard to back either sides with any real confidence so going with the UNDER in this one.

2* Sydney vs Gold Coast -2.5 WON

The Sydney roosters are pretty much out of finals contention and have nothing to play for really other than pride and they face a Gold Coast side that absolutely need to win this clash to stay in touch with the 8. Barring that dismal 55% completion rate against the warriors, the titans have actually been in decent form with back-to-back wins over in-form teams in Canberra and Brisbane. Sydney have been hit-and-miss as seen by their 14 pt win over the tigers but then a 38 point thrashing at the hands of manly and most recently a 12 point loss to the lowly panthers. Sydney might hang in there for a while but I expect a pretty full strength Gold Coast side to grind out the win and cover the short number.

NRL 2012 Record: 28 - 29

+ 18.97 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Saturday 28/7

The dragons storm game went completely off-trend there so nothing you can do about that. Titans looked a bit fishy after down 10-0 but managed to outscore the roosters 32 - 6 in what was a pretty impressive performance on their part. Now onto Saturday with potnetially two games of the round.

2* Canterbury 1-12 Margin vs North Queensland LOSS

This has to be the match of the round, two teams that have been in great form playing against one another. On one hand you have a bulldogs team that quietly won 8 straight games and on the other you have a cowboys team that have won 4 of their past 5 games. The bulldogs are a little undermanned with form forward of the comp Kasiano still suspended and Keating most likely out but they still have Barba, Reynolds and a decent enough team to compete. The cowboys are pretty much at full strength missing their strike winger in Graham. The bulldogs have shown time and time again that their performances have been no fluke, as evident in their 8 game winning streak and I just think the bulldogs will sneak away and win in an absolute thriller of a game!

added:

Live in-game 2nd half: 3* Canterbury vs North Queensland Over 46.5 WON

2* Manly vs New Zealand +5.5 WON

The grand finalists of 2011 lock horns again in what could potentially be another game of the round. Both teams have been patchy at best but warriors have probably been the bigger disappointment, having been in winning positions on so many occasions only to let it slip at the end. The warriors have one of the best line-ups of the comp but they just haven't been able to put it altogether for the full 80 minutes. Manly will most likely not have the services of Brett Stewart and the warriors lose inspiration and defensive workhorse in Mannering. This game is extremely crucial to the warriors as if they lose this, they will be even further behind the 8 ball and you can almost count their finals campaign over. On desperation and motivation alone, I think the warriors can bounce back and either snatch this game or at least keep it close. Let's also remember that this game is being played in Perth and that the Manly form has been patchy at best. This is Vatuvei's first game as captain and I think the troops rally behind him and pull the upset here to keep their finals campaign alive.

NRL 2012 Record: 30 - 30

+ 21.52 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Monday 30/7

2* Brisbane -10.5 vs Paramatta LOSS

2* Brisbane vs Paramatta UNDER 40.5 LOSS

NRL 2012 Record: 30 - 32

+ 17.52 units

[dRavidC]

extremely silly plays by myself to ruin what was an already average weekend. sorry to anyone who followed. I'll make it up to you guys next week with proper analysed and thought through plays.

[dRavidC]

NRL Saturday 4/8

3* Newcastle vs Canterbury O 42.5 (didn't post it in time for kick-off so won't count this in my records) LOSS

3* North Queensland vs Manly O 42.5 LOSS

NRL 2012 Record: 31 - 33

+ 14.52 units

[Coochiemudlo]

Did the dogs have one or two tries on the board by the time you posted that over

[dRavidC]

Did the dogs have one or two tries on the board by the time you posted that over

yeah sorry just realised my internet's being lagging big time. took 5 minutes to post that up. i won't count it in my plays.

[Coochiemudlo]

All good mate, just having an easy dig

[dRavidC]

NRL Sunday 5/8

1* New Zealand +9 1st half vs Cronulla @ 3.15 LOSS

New Zealand have been playing some pretty decent footy, their only problem has been finishing off games. In their past few games, they have started really well jumping to big leads and against a Cronulla side that looks a little out of form, I think they will stamp their authority and come away with a comfortable lead at least after 40 minutes. Obviously this isn't a regular or high percentage play so i'm playing it for a solitary unit. I may have regular line/total plays later in the day.

added:

3* New Zealand -2.5 1st half vs Cronulla LOSS

Live-in game @ 2nd half:

3* New Zealand vs Cronulla -13.5 WON




3* Canberra vs Brisbane UNDER 21.5 1st half WON

NRL 2012 Record: 33 - 35

+ 15.95 units

[Vinnie Paz]

What book is this at?
And is that + supposed to be a -?

[dRavidC]

What book is this at?
And is that + supposed to be a -?

that's not a line, it's a margin play. this is at sportingbet. it's like a 13+ full game margin except it's a half time version of it. So the New Zealand warriors have to lead by 9 or more by half time in order for this to cash.

[Vinnie Paz]

So should be -9 then correct
Get it now, hope it comes through for ya man

[dRavidC]

So should be -9 then correct
Get it now, hope it comes through for ya man

yeah that's right i guess. Cheers mate.

[dRavidC]

Playing warriors -2.5 1st half line. BOL!

[dRavidC]

made a couple of poor plays and have been lucky to be the positive with some live bail-outs and secondary plays. Thought my warriors play was the poorest of the weekend. Have got a play for tonight's game, just waiting for the final confirmed line-ups.

[dRavidC]

NRL Monday 6/8

2* Wests vs Parramatta +3.5 1st half WON


edit: bumped up the play by 1 unit.

NRL 2012 Record: 34 - 35

+ 17.77 units

[dRavidC]

thank god i played the eels at the half time line rather than full game line woulda been smoked!

[dRavidC]

NRL Friday 10/8

2* Manly -2 + Melbourne M/L Parlay WON

NRL 2012 Record: 35 - 35

+ 21.71 units

[h3da]

GL on your play.. I'm on manly + melbourne 13+

[dRavidC]

NRL Saturday 11/8

2* New Zealand +8.5

[dRavidC]

NRL Saturday 11/8

2* New Zealand +8.5

LOSS


NRL 2012 Record: 35 - 36

+ 19.71 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Sunday 12/8

2* Penrith M/L LOSS

added: 3* Canterbury -6 2nd half WON

NRL 2012 Record: 36 - 37

+ 20.41 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Monday 13/8

2* Cronulla +2.5 LOSS

2* UNDER 40.5 WON


NRL 2012 Record: 37 - 38

+ 20.23 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Friday 18/8

0.5* melbourne -4 LOSS

0.5* bulldogs -5.5 (bought 2 points) LOSS


NRL 2012 Record: 37 - 40

+ 19.23 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Sunday 19/8

2* Newcastle/Manly UNDER 41.5 + Warriors M/L Parlay LOSS

The Newcastle knights certainly made a statement last week and showed everyone that their season is not over just yet as they make a last final surge to the finals. The only problem with that is that they face arguably one of the form sides of the competition in Manly. The knights know that the only way they're gonna even have a shot at this game is if they play defence. Knights showed they are capable of that when they absolutely strangled the sharks offence. On the other hand you have a Manly team that also rely on their defence to get them across the line and playing a quality side. Manly do tend to have days where they just turn on their offence and absolutely pile on the points but I just don't see it against a desperate and much improved Newcastle side. I am expecting a low scoring tight game with manly possibly pulling away in the the end. I see this game being a 24-10 type scoreline and am rolling with the UNDER here.

The warriors have been playing the worst footy of the competition, I'd say even worse than the panthers have been playing but this is their home game and they are now officially out of finals contention so I think they'll play a bit more freely and relaxed and I can't see the talents of this side going down to the Panthers. Adding them in a parlay with the above play for just some more extra value.

2* Gold Coast/Parramatta UNDER 47.5 WON

decided to go against my initial write-up after the parlay loss.

2* Manly/Newcaslte OVER 41.5 WON

NRL 2012 Record: 39 - 41

+ 20.87 units

[dRavidC]

i think this warriors team is even worse than the one that had stacey jones coming back from retirement.

forget the roosters, panthers and eels - this team deserves to be the wooden spooners...

[dRavidC]

NRL Monday 20/8

2* St George/North Queensland UNDER 40.5 LOSS

1* St George +4.5 LOSS

NRL 2012 Record: 39 - 43

+ 17.87 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Friday 25/8

2* Canberra/Bulldogs UNDER 43.5 WON

2* Manly/Brisbane UDNER 38.5 WON

NRL 2012 Record: 41 - 43

+ 21.51 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Satuday 26/8

2* Penrith/Gold Coast UNDER 42.5 LOSS

2* St George/New Zealand UNDER 43.5 LOSS

NRL 2012 Record: 41 - 45

+ 17.51 units

[jbart28]

Thanks for the picks. BOL-

Do you think Gold Coast covers the 4.5 ?

[Astros148]

do you just flip a coin ?

[Astros148]

well that gold coast under isnt hitting oh well.

[dRavidC]

Thanks for the picks. BOL-

Do you think Gold Coast covers the 4.5 ?

Sorry mate just saw this now. Personally, I think they can but I liked the UNDER better given Penrith's recent offensive struggles. But it looks like they've remembered how to play offense again...

[dRavidC]

do you just flip a coin ?

haha no i didn't. I did a bit of analysis and my model had the game just a tick under 40 and was presuming penrith's offensive struggles would continue. Doesn't look like it right now though.

[Astros148]

lol damn sorry bro i tailed only for degen action but all good