dRavidC's NRL 2012

[dRavidC]

Hey guys! I hope everyone is doing well.

Decided to come back for more after a profitable 2011 in the NRL.

My first play of the season.

2* St George @ Newcastle -3.5 LOSS

Unfortunately no time for a proper analysis/write-up but I will say that I'm banking on the "Bennett" factor here and think Newcastle will open their season account with a comfortable win.

NRL 2012 Record: 0 - 1

- 2 units

[Bazz27]

They say the knights have been flat during their trial games but that was Bennetts comments. Saints may be solid @+3.5. plus it may be a tight game as today is so stinking hot a newy

[dRavidC]

They say the knights have been flat during their trial games but that was Bennetts comments. Saints may be solid @+3.5. plus it may be a tight game as today is so stinking hot a newy

good call mate. but nonetheless what a game to kickstart the season. not the greatest of spectacles but still a closely fought match throughout.

[dRavidC]

2* Gold Coast @ North Queensland -5.5 Didn't actually play it. but for some reason sbr wouldn't let me edit the post at the time.

3* Manly @ New Zealand -2.5

[dRavidC]

2* Gold Coast @ North Queensland -5.5 Didn't actually play it. but for some reason sbr wouldn't let me edit the post at the time.

3* Manly @ New Zealand -2.5 LOSS

NRL 2012 Record: 0 - 2

- 5 units

[dRavidC]

3* West Tigers @ Manly +2.5 WON

NRL 2012 Record: 1 - 2

- 2.15 units

[kingsr]

Manly are at home. Not at Manly, but it is their home game.

[dRavidC]

Manly are at home. Not at Manly, but it is their home game.

yeah thats what i meant thanks for correcting me

[dRavidC]

3* St George @ Canterbury +4.5

Dragons surprised all last week beating the Knights in golden point 15-14 in what was a sluggish but entertaining match. Bulldogs played even uglier with a 64% set completion rate and 15 errors yet were still able to beat a Panthers side that are always tough to beat at home 22-14 - that has to be some positive from a bulldogs perspective. Despite the win, i'm sure Hasler would of given them a earful about ball handling and completing their sets and I think they'll rectify that tonight especially in perfect conditions. Dragons definitely hold the advantage in terms of their attacking ends but I think the bulldogs have an advantage in the forwards department. Form and statistics point towards a comfortable dragons win but I feel like it will be a lot closer than what everybody thinks. As you can see I don't really have any concrete analysis for the play i'm making, it's more an instinct play more than anything. I probably won't have concrete analysis until I see these teams play a few more matches.

3* Newcastle @ Cronulla +2.5

[dRavidC]

St George Canterbury Analysis (not the greatest but better than nothing i guess )

[dRavidC]

3* St George @ Canterbury +4.5 WON

Dragons surprised all last week beating the Knights in golden point 15-14 in what was a sluggish but entertaining match. Bulldogs played even uglier with a 64% set completion rate and 15 errors yet were still able to beat a Panthers side that are always tough to beat at home 22-14 - that has to be some positive from a bulldogs perspective. Despite the win, i'm sure Hasler would of given them a earful about ball handling and completing their sets and I think they'll rectify that tonight especially in perfect conditions. Dragons definitely hold the advantage in terms of their attacking ends but I think the bulldogs have an advantage in the forwards department. Form and statistics point towards a comfortable dragons win but I feel like it will be a lot closer than what everybody thinks. As you can see I don't really have any concrete analysis for the play i'm making, it's more an instinct play more than anything. I probably won't have concrete analysis until I see these teams play a few more matches.

3* Newcastle @ Cronulla +2.5 LOSS

NRL 2012 Record: 2 - 3

- 2.42 units

[kingsr]

Bulldogs!!! God it was sooo good beating the Dragqueens ! Our performance was brilliant and we showed class all over the park.

[ultrasouth]

Bulldogs!!! God it was sooo good beating the Dragqueens ! Our performance was brilliant and we showed class all over the park.

[dRavidC]

4* NRL Rd 3 Parlay (paying 5.76x)

Leg 1: Sydney vs Canberra M/L

Leg 2: Gold Coast vs Melbourne M/L

Leg 3: North Queensland M/L vs Parramatta

Leg 4: New Zealand M/L vs Canterbury-Bankstown

x = number of units put in

[dRavidC]

4* NRL Rd 3 Parlay (paying 5.76x) LOSS

Leg 1: Sydney vs Canberra M/L

Leg 2: Gold Coast vs Melbourne M/L

Leg 3: North Queensland M/L vs Parramatta

Leg 4: New Zealand M/L vs Canterbury-Bankstown

x = number of units put in

NRL 2012 Record: 2 - 4

- 6.42 units

[Bazz27]

Dessies Doggies

Hi Kingsr,
Long time bud, mate nice win against those warriors yesterday, your dogs look real solid this year all over the park, I also had them in Last Man Standing. Only 13 of us had picked the dogs so onto next week.
Cheers Bazz27

Bulldogs!!! God it was sooo good beating the Dragqueens ! Our performance was brilliant and we showed class all over the park.

[kingsr]

Hi Kingsr,
Long time bud, mate nice win against those warriors yesterday, your dogs look real solid this year all over the park, I also had them in Last Man Standing. Only 13 of us had picked the dogs so onto next week.
Cheers Bazz27

Damn that's ballsy taking the Dogs in LMS this week I must say, they have exceeded my expectations! What a huge difference a good coach can make on a team.

Warriors are also a fantastic team. Feliti Mateo has to be up there amongst the best players in the world. He can be the difference between winning and losing a game. Great Player!

It's so good to have the NRL and AFL seasons back. I feel normal again
Good luck this season Bazz, let's crush the books

[dRavidC]

2* NRL Rd 3 Parlay (paying 26.43x) LOSS

Leg 1: Parramatta M/L vs Panthers

Leg 2: New Zealand -12.5 vs Gold Coast

Leg 3: St George M/L vs Manly

Leg 4: North Queensland M/L vs Cronulla

Leg 5: Melbourne -12.5 vs Sydney

Leg 6: Bulldogs M/L vs Newcastle

5* Souths vs Brisbane U 43.5 WON

5* Parramatta vs Penrith O 42.5 WON

NRL 2012 Record: 4 - 5

+1.08 units

[dRavidC]

4* St George M/L vs Manly

2* New Zealand 13+ vs Gold Coast

2* North Queensland vs Cronulla O 44.5

[dRavidC]

4* St George M/L vs Manly WON

2* New Zealand 13+ vs Gold Coast WON

2* North Queensland vs Cronulla O 44.5 LOSS

NRL 2012 Record: 6 - 6

+ 3.08 units

[dRavidC]

5* West Tigers vs Canberra U 40.5 LOSS

Throughout these first 3 rounds, both the tigers and raiders have been playing decent defence but not so much on the offensive end. I see this game being a tough and physical defensive battle especially with Canberra's attacking superstar Dugan and West Tiger's captain not playing.

NRL 2012 Record: 6 - 7

- 2.08 units

[rohan22no]

Unlucky David, the under was looking good midway through second half. Looking forward to your picks this week. Are you doing AFL too?

[That Guy]

Tough break mate... UNDER was the right play last night despite 80% public being on the over.
No one could have predicted such a crap showing from the Tigers

[dRavidC]

@ rohan22no:

YES i will be!!!

@ That Guy:

Yeah NRL is turning into the NBA a little bit in terms of unpredictability. Yeah i did not see that coming from the Tigers - terrible terrible defence.

[dRavidC]

3* Parlay (pays 2.38x): WON

Leg 1: Brisbane M/L vs St George

Leg 2: Melbourne M/L vs Newcastle

NRL 2012 Record: 7- 7

+ 2.06 units

[dRavidC]

both high scoring and exciting nrl games.

what a night of footy!

[dRavidC]

3* Sydney vs New Zealand -4.5 LOSS

NRL 2012 Record: 7 - 8

-1.06 units

[dRavidC]

4* Sydney @ Gold Coast +2.5

4* St George @ Cronulla +2.5

4* New Zealand -2.5 @ Canberra

[dRavidC]

4* Sydney @ Gold Coast +2.5 LOSS


4* St George @ Cronulla +2.5 WON

4* New Zealand -2.5 @ Canberra LOSS

NRL 2012 Record: 8 - 10

-5.42 units

[dRavidC]

5* Manly -12.5 vs Gold Coast LOSS

Manly wins this game no doubt. The only question is by how much. And Manly are the sort of side that like to dismantle weak opposition by how ever much possible. Manly beat a Penrith side 30-0. See a similar scoreline in this one.

5* Sydney vs North Queensland -2.5 WON
The sydney roosters have really struck me as a streaky scrappy team that do ONLY what's required to win a game. They currently have 4 wins and 2 losses which i think is flattering considering they have not strung together an 80-minute performance all year. The cowboys played a lot better than the 42 - 18 scoreline suggested. they played brilliantly for 60 minutes and really matched the storm blow for blow until they lost their composure and the premiership favorites just kept piling on the points from then onwards. Initially i was leaning the roosters given how their forwards have terrorized their opposition but they are missing Nuuausala, which i think is a big big loss. I think the cowboys win this and cover the short number.

NRL 2012 Record: 9 - 11

-5.87 units

[dRavidC]

10* South Sydney vs North Queensland O 40.5 LOSS

Two sides that are both leaking in points and are equally explosive in attack. In addition, they will be playing under perfect sunny conditions. Not sure who takes this game but I do think they'll be plenty of points in this game.

added:

15* South Sydney vs North Queensland -3.5 2nd half WON

NRL 2012 Record: 10 - 12

-2.22 units

[dRavidC]

5* Parramatta vs Canterbury U 40.5

5* North Queensland 1-12 Margin vs St George (@ 3.00)

[dRavidC]

5* Parramatta vs Canterbury U 40.5 LOSS

5* North Queensland 1-12 Margin vs St George (@ 3.00) LOSS

NRL 2012 Record: 10 - 14

-12.22 units

[dRavidC]

5* New Zealand M/L vs Brisbane

This might be a crazy play but I feel as though the Warriors can spring an upset to arguably the form team of the comp (other than melbourne) in Brisbane. I don't really have any statistics or records to back me up here but it's just a hunch that I have. Should be one of the games of the round - Warriors in a thriller!

5* Gold Coast vs Wests U 41.5

Sheens was absolutely filthy with the tigers finish last week against the eels even though they still won. Expect them to play with a lot better defence this time round and for the full 80 minutes. With Prince and Sezer (most likely) out of the team, don't see a lot of points coming out of Gold Coast.

[dRavidC]

5* New Zealand M/L vs Brisbane WON

This might be a crazy play but I feel as though the Warriors can spring an upset to arguably the form team of the comp (other than melbourne) in Brisbane. I don't really have any statistics or records to back me up here but it's just a hunch that I have. Should be one of the games of the round - Warriors in a thriller!

5* Gold Coast vs Wests U 41.5 WON

Sheens was absolutely filthy with the tigers finish last week against the eels even though they still won. Expect them to play with a lot better defence this time round and for the full 80 minutes. With Prince and Sezer (most likely) out of the team, don't see a lot of points coming out of Gold Coast.

NRL 2012 Record: 12 - 14

-1.67 units