Yea, Sri Lanka have chased really poorly, either going too hard or too slow. As soon as Australia got back up to $2.15 when Kula had a few good overs I traded my way out of the bet (I won't be counting it, or any other live bets on this thread) - don't like the chances of Tharanga bringing this home but there's always still hope.
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Yea, was going to put half a unit back on Australia at $2.90 at the change of innings but didn't go ahead with it, but I'm happy to have got out when I did. Cricket is good like that, in that it doesn't take much towards the end of innings for the odds to swing heavily one way or the other.
Sri Lanka have just crumbled in the batting here, but I'm still hoping for just entertainment sake for a close finish - I'll take a tie!Comment -
Well, after an impressive batting performance all summer from SL, it is the batting that ultimately sees them lose the decider. ODI's are always so close these days.Comment -
I got on Sri Lanka after Australia could only manage 230. i expected the Sri Lankans to chase that down easy... cricket has ****** me. footy can't come around quick enough.Comment -
Unreal. That aussie tail wag was the difference.
well played aussie.
well choked lanka.
damn. oh well, on to the next one.Comment -
Tell me about it Gee. Sri lankans nail the bowling and bomb the batting and lee and McKay start playing like the top order - can't predict that shit!
Only one play, that does me for cricket for a while.
Plays for the weekend so far:
1.5X Manly @ $2.01
1.5X Broncs/Dragons @ $2.32Comment -
Manly is firming hard. Started at 2.24 on Tuesday.Comment -
Current record
W/P/L: 8-1-14
Profit/Loss: -$551
1.5X Sri Lanka @ $2.05
1.5X Manly @ $2.01
1.5X Broncs/Dragons @ $2.32Tough break on the Sri Lanka game, and the late try seals the deal against the Broncos. Couldn't watch the Brisbane/NQ game so not sure what to read into it - the stats from the game look pretty even - looks like a good comeback from NQ after last weekends disaster.
Very impressed with Manly again, could only watch in the background (bloody social outings getting in the way of footy watching!
), but thought both Williams, King and Cherry-evans had solid games. Tigers errors let them down.
Gotta run back with more thoughts later.Comment -
RAiders $2.00! Ride that train boys
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G'day fellas, didn't get to post my other plays for the weekend as on family duties with the little man for a lot of it. Did pretty well getting Canberra and NZ, lost with Cronulla (but happily)! Not doing so good with this threads official record but whatever, long season to go.
Have just checked the lines and agreed - raiders line seems so juicy you want to see what you are missing! But I think no need to over-analyse and is worth booking in right now.
2X Raiders vs Roosters @ $2.00
Not much else I'm liking so far ... a lean towards the Knights at home, I thought they showed some good patches against the Sharkies and will be getting better week by week, and now with nearly 3 weeks of Bennett coaching in the proper competition they'll be tough to beat in front of a sell out crowd.
Also contemplating Storm/Warriors, still not buying the Doggies yet kingsr
I think you can read as much into their victory as Brisbane's against NQ in round 1, but still a great start for them - they'll need Pritchard back this week to help compete with the size of the Warriors but the Warriors play a sometimes erratic game, and give you plenty of chances - if the Bulldogs can then keep their so far stellar defense going then they can win in NZ.
Looking at the under in the Dragons v Tigers game depending on what the line is set at - will play the line if set at 35 or higher.
Going to have a model up and running hopefully by round 5 which will break down teams by a number of different stats including completion rates, missed tackle %, offensive efficiency (metres/hitup), errors/game - nothing too fancy but hopefully will help reduce capping time for me in the long run.Comment -
I'm interested to see this. Curious to see what factors you use in your model.G'day fellas, didn't get to post my other plays for the weekend as on family duties with the little man for a lot of it. Did pretty well getting Canberra and NZ, lost with Cronulla (but happily)! Not doing so good with this threads official record but whatever, long season to go.
Have just checked the lines and agreed - raiders line seems so juicy you want to see what you are missing! But I think no need to over-analyse and is worth booking in right now.
2X Raiders vs Roosters @ $2.00
I like it and I'm on for the same amount. Like last week, I'm not over thinking it at all. Locked in.
Not much else I'm liking so far ... a lean towards the Knights at home, I thought they showed some good patches against the Sharkies and will be getting better week by week, and now with nearly 3 weeks of Bennett coaching in the proper competition they'll be tough to beat in front of a sell out crowd.
Hope you're right! New have a tough 3 rounds ahead and will miss gildey.
Also contemplating Storm/Warriors, still not buying the Doggies yet kingsr I think you can read as much into their victory as Brisbane's against NQ in round 1, but still a great start for them - they'll need Pritchard back this week to help compete with the size of the Warriors but the Warriors play a sometimes erratic game, and give you plenty of chances - if the Bulldogs can then keep their so far stellar defense going then they can win in NZ.
I'm not a blind supporter. Warriors are a great bet. We won't win. I'd be shocked if we do. Great test for us. With the dragons game I believe we outplayed them. We played them into error. We tilted them. We got in their heads and the scoreline reflects that. We outplayed them.
Looking at the under in the Dragons v Tigers game depending on what the line is set at - will play the line if set at 35 or higher.
I'm liking the tigers to win outright. To watch them almost win against manly after being down 22-8 was an amazing sight. The team is never dead and one of the best teams to watch in any sport.
Going to have a model up and running hopefully by round 5 which will break down teams by a number of different stats including completion rates, missed tackle %, offensive efficiency (metres/hitup), errors/game - nothing too fancy but hopefully will help reduce capping time for me in the long run.Comment -
Yea mate happy to share, I do financial valuations all the time so thought it about time to have a crack at some modelling for NRL. Almost considered paying someone a $1k or so to get all the historical stats for me (looking to go back last 3 seasons), but one thing you learn about markets is they change as quick as the models that try to predict them.
I'm really going to probably keep it simple, give teams an offensive and defensive rating out of 10, give a home ground advantage out of 10, and use that to see if there's value in a line.Comment -
Hey benny read my previous post. It didn't 'quote' properly. I replied to a few things you mentioned. Read through the quoted area.Comment -
Lol yep didn't see that at all.
Knights get back Tahu and Broncs are missing Parker so I call it a net net zero there - don't rate gidley as highly as others do either must say.
And doggies beat Saints well and truly, but St George also just combusted in that game, if eels had pulled off the upset on Monday night then I think we would have got a nice juicy line on the warriors.
Those Tiges are my "second team" but man they can be unpredictable - them and the warriors would make for a crazy grand final. Think I'm just going to live bet that Friday night game, lean to the under as I think St George gets there house back in order.Comment -
OK cool...even with the dragons house in order, I think the Tigers will trouble them and pull out a win. I took Tiger for 1 unit and also Knights for 1 unit. Agree with Gidley, I don't rate him as much as others do either. I think he's a better player with some classy playmakers feeding him balls for line breaks.
I can't bet on the dogs or against them. This is a major test for us. We must play VERY disciplined and VERY defensively. That Mateo scares the Sh*t out of me lolComment -
Doggies Warriors should be an epic game.
Hoping for some sun on sunday to enjoy a few brews at the game.Comment -
Only early but I like the UNDER on Dragons vs Tigers.. after leaking so many points last week the Dragons will be focussed on defense this week and apparently most of their drills at training are reflecting this.Comment -
Yep - like that under too TG, it'll be "defense, defense, defense" all week at practice for the Saints, just have to wait now and see what the line is posted at.
Looking forward to that doggies game too, hopefully I'll get more time to watch the games this weekend!Comment -
1.5X Broncos/Knights over 34.5 @ $1.90 (Sportsbet odds)
1X Saints/Tigers under 35.5 @ $2.03 (Pinnacle odds)
Usually I only use Pinnacle for my odds, but can't pass up the value Sportsbet is offering tonight on the Broncs/Knights line.
BOL tonight all!Comment -
Dropped to 1.85
dam it
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1.75 now, lucky you caught it earlier.Comment -
Not a great way to start the round, but not too unhappy with the plays. I knew Dragons would bring their A-game this week, always easy to say in retrospect but taking the under on the Tigers team total might have been the better angle.
Knights/Brisbane game should have gone WAY over, but these things happen. Back in the day nights like last night would have sent me onto tilt/chase mode, these days it's a shrug of the shoulder. Really impressed with Brisbane though, Hodges looks to be in best ever form and he makes a big difference to that side, and Civoniceva and Thaiday have to be two of the hardest working forwards in the game.
As for the Knights, well, hard to find many positives. Uate is as brilliant as ever, but I'd struggle to name another player I was impressed with. Snowden/Taia/Houston did OK I guess, but Bennett has some work to do to right the ship, and having Bulldogs at ANZ is not going to make it easy.
No plays for me today, think the lines are about right. Might have an "action wager" on Storm/NQ multi but that's about it.
I'll probably be on Warriors and Souths tomorrow, also looking at the under on Souths/Penrith depending on the weather.Comment -
Ben, we are thinking on the same wavelength for today.
The one consolation u get frm missing the over last night with the Broncos/Knights is that it was the right bet, The way it panned out was fate.
The Broncos bombed at least 6 tries and that how it goes sometimes. The positive thing is , there will be a game later on this year where it goes our way and we win one we didnt deserve, It always evens out.
Were you thinking of starting another thread for brainstorming etc soon? It would be easier to go into one and throw around all the thoughts and work to a winning conclusion with the more the merrier . Liken it to a battle and as soliders we all must formulate a plan to beat the evil Bookmakers. unity is strength.Comment -
Impressive wins by Storm and NQ, though also showing how ordinary the Eels and Titans will be again this year.
Plays for today:
Posted previously:
2X Canberra pk @ $2.00
Adding:
1X Warriors/Bulldogs over 40.5
1.5X Souths/Penrith under 44.5
Added plays are odds offered at Sportsbet. Pinny has Warriors/Bulldogs line at 43.5, and SouthsPenrith at 42.5 so they are tipping their hat on both games.
Bulldogs will know they need to score points against the Warriors and so I think this will give them an urgency in attack.
Souths defensive stats have been over-inflated by the two late miracle tries by the Roosters and playing the Storm at home, Panthers kept the Roosters scoreless last week (not necessarily the hardest feat), and had held the Bulldogs to 12 points till the 72nd minute in round 1, clouds are looming in Sydney and I wouldn't be surprised to see rain later on as well.
BOL today guys.Comment -
Ice cold at the moment, so going to be more selective and avoid totals till after week 5.
2X Cronulla +5.5 @ $2.06
Missed the crucial half a point but still like the play at this number.
BOL tonight allComment -
Thanks mate, good to at least end a shocking round on a good note. Rare that you get an NRL game where your play isn't a sweat.
I was really impressed with the Broncos I must say, and their forwards match up well with the Rabbits. Interested to see what that line is set at, good game to dissect and see where we agree and disagree. Eels will be desperate that's for sure, I'll be staying away from that game though, too unpredictable as to which Eels show up for me.Comment -
1.5X Broncos/Knights over 34.5 @ $1.90
1X Saints/Tigers under 35.5 @ $2.03
2X Canberra pk @ $2.00
1X Warriors/Bulldogs over 40.5
1.5X Souths/Penrith under 44.5
2X Cronulla +5.5 @ $2.06
2-4, -4 Units
Current record:
W/P/L: 10-1-18
Profit/Loss: -$951
Rotten round of results, but only really unhappy with the Saints/Tigers and Souths/Penrith picks. That's the way it goes. Staying away from totals till I get more games to look at how sides are performing, usually do well on these as the season progresses.
Back at it later in the week, started this season poorly so going to work hard to get it back on track. In the meantime - follow angelo and That Guy, those guys are on fire!Comment -
Currently compiling some stats for my modelling work, staying away from the Eels vs Panthers game as I think both teams are far too unpredictable. The stats for the Souths vs Brisbane game are attached as an image to this post.
I'll try copying and pasting it but I'll assume the formatting doesn't work out.
Take this with a grain of salt - it's only week 3 and they are not adjusted for the toughness of schedule. I also haven't yet got all the stats to baseline them against the rest of the comp - the % edge listed here is just in terms of the average of both teams on a given category. Never-the-less they show that both teams are evenly matched offensively but with a clear edge to Brisbane on defense. If the stats had a bigger sample size then this would have me lean towards the under on the Souths team total and/or the Brisbane team total over.Souths Brisbane %Edge Offensive efficiency Points gained/set 0.62 0.58 6.4% Metres gained/set 34 37 -9.5% Line breaks/set 0.14 0.13 9.9% Defensive efficiency Points allowed/set 0.66 0.37 -55.7% Metres allowed/set 34 30 -9.7% Line breaks allowed/set 0.13 0.08 -51.0% Error rate Errors/set 0.28 0.36 23.6% Missed tackles/set 0.76 0.51 -39.8%
Using these stats I have the total points for the match at 42, so I think it's set spot on the right number.
With the game in Perth I think this adds an extra element of unpredictability, and I'm trying to be super selective with my plays until I get back on track. So no plays tonight, will look for live betting opportunities only.
BOL all!Comment -
Short on time ... been running some numbers and like a play in all games tonight:
1X Warriors -12.5 @ $1.94
2X Manly @ $2.28
1X Cronulla @ $3.01
Strong lean also to the over 40.5 in the Sharks/NQ game.
BOL tonight all!Comment -
Add small play on GWS ...
0.5X GWS +88.5 @ $1.98Comment -
Benrama where do you get those stats?Comment
