Ben's Aussie Sports Picks 2012: NRL, AFL, Rugby, A-league and Cricket

[benrama]

One of the most awful displays of football I've seen - and I've seen some barry crockers in my time!

Wonder what the odds were of NQ being held scoreless for a full game at DF against the Titans? 100:1?

[MatI]

I dont even want to know! I will be staying away from them for a loooong time.

[kingsr]

Wow something like 7/35 sets complete, considering penalties are counted as a completed set! WTF? Is that a record???

[benrama]

24 mistakes by NQ, actually Thurston just threw it over the sideline, make that 25! That's one every 3 minutes give or take

Clearly they all smoked some quality Afghani hash before hitting the field tonight

[benrama]

Well at least Thurston is honest, "disgraceful for a first grade footy side, probably the worst game of footy as a whole we've ever played." lol

[kingsr]

Someone tell him that it was the worst performance, by any footy team, in the history of rugby league! Even Rugby League in Uganda!

[angelo63]

I will be on the Cowboys against the broncos next friday, They will play a lot better, they must have read the press about how good they were. Lui will make a difference qnd he looked like he has fitted in. Lets remember the Warriors lost their first three games last season.

[benrama]

You're a game man then Angelo, I'm a believer in "buy low, sell high" in football picks, but only when the time is right. NQ played one of the worst games of Rugby League in the clubs history - how do you recover from that in one week. Unless the line is set crazy high, like +10 or more I don't see how you'd want to back NQ in this spot.

All of Warriors losses were narrow ones and two were to St George and Tigers, I woudn't compare the two - but yes one game does not a season make.

[hawley]

Broncos / Cowboys under anything

[angelo63]

I have faith in Thurston he is the best player in the NRL ( Slater of course is in a class all of his own) His body language and then his after match comments showed me enough to know he will make sure the Cowboys will perform close to their best. Many a season i have seen teams start of with a howler and then come back to form right away. The Cowboys will be a decent price and they may lose but it will be close and an in play bet may be the go as the Cowboys start of slowly . The last 3 meetings of these two at Suncorp has seen the broncos win by 1 by 2 and by 6 The Cowboys seem to enjoy the fight when the travel to Brisbane and i expect some fight from them this time as well if the bookies give out a price of 4.00 and plus 8.5 i will take them early and trade.

[hawley]

You really think we will get 8.5?

[angelo63]

One model has them at 6.40 and the Broncos 1.19.

Bookies like setting a very short priced fav early in the season and taking all the punters on.

I can see 1.30 for the Broncos being realistic at this stage but who knows if the Bookies think the Cowboys are that bad they will have the Broncos 1.25. The Broncos were very impressive and they only played well for 20 or so minutes. Time will tell . Shame the Tigers won if they had lost they would have been around 2.90 for the game against Manly. I like backing the Tigers when they are the Dogs.

[hawley]

I think the heap of travel for Manly may finally catch up to them against the Tigers.

[angelo63]

The travel and the bruising the Warriors gave them , it was a very physical match an Stewart and Matai may be out on Friday

[benrama]

Line will probably be +7.5 or so for NQ, I don't think the books will over-adjust this early in the season and they know the history and rivalry aspect to this matchup. That will put Brisbane at about $1.30. Thurston will indeed be wanting a quick redemption from that shocker, but I could hardly find one positive they can take into the Brisbane game. That Titans didn't win 40-0? It's one thing having a shocker away and then returning for home cooking, it's another doing it the other way around.

If you want to then do a live bet, I think you'd still be best to wait for live in-play, pretty sure Brisbane gets the lead at least in some point in this game and you'll get a better line than the $3.10 or so it will probably open up as.

I don't think Tigers would have been $2.90 against Manly if they'd lost - maybe at Brookvale, but not at a "neutral" venue like Bluetongue. Tigers played a physical game too, and in the hottest Sydney day we've had in what feels like years. With an extra day rest I don't think the travel aspect will be that important. Let's see what the line comes out on that one.

[angelo63]

I will see how the teams are named and how the lines open up and go from there, I do believe both games will be close and In play is certainly the way to go, In tonights game i wanted to back souths all week and all through the game but at the 60 miinute mark with the score 20-12 to souths i had a small bet on the roosters at 6.00 and the draw at 25.00.

I watched Betfair trade Souths @ 1.02 and the Roosters at 26.00 from about the 72 min mark onwards. What happened tonight may not happen again all season but if I had backed Souths i would of layed them back at 1.02 as there was plenty of time to do so. Hopefully some people who did back Souths can know for next time to trade out and not suffer the pain of what happened tonight.

I feel a little guilty collecting on the Roosters as i don't like them at all and they are my pick for the spoon. Lots to like about Souths though and the pain of tonight will teach them new lessons, going to Melbourne will be a daunting task but their pack can get over the top of the Storms , I watched the Storm close up on Saturday and the Raiders pack finished well on top of the

[benrama]

Yea saw that live bet on the Roosters - nice catch. I never thought Souths were safe there, they just have a habit of keeping games close or finding a way of letting other teams in. I honestly think live betting in the NRL could be a full time living if one was disciplined enough. Unlike the NFL in the US which has very sophisticated algorithms for live betting - anyone who's used Pinny to live bet NFL will know how tricky they are at not allowing you to middle/hedge, or get "value" odds in play. Aussie books on NRL are not like that at all, so you can easily get these wild swings in odds that allow you to lock in guaranteed profits. Bet365 used to be a cash cow for that in all sports actually - sadly it's all phone betting now too - not an option for me.

As for Melbourne, I was unimpressed with them as well, but they just have a knack of finding a way to win. Their pack is new and will take time to find it's feet, once they do I'm sure they'll be top 4 or thereabouts at the end of the year.

Can't wait to see what the titans vs Canberra line is set at though.

[angelo63]

I like the Raiders at this stage, Campese and Dugan struggled and the pressure is on to win. The club is under extreme pressure to perform this year and they showed enough on Sat that they can win. Mcrone was very good as were all the front rowers, Berrigan gives them an edge in some leadership and Fensom is a machine, i feel he should of been given the captaincy because he plays with his heart all the time. They will be up for it against the Titans who were ok against the Cowboys . The Cowboys lost that game . Jamal scored two tries but he also was average i thought. In play again unless there is a generous line to the Raiders of around 6.5

[MrXYZ]

Looking forward to Manly against the Tigers on Friday. I'm expecting a line of -1.5.

[angelo63]

The -1.5 is what i also have rated the game, I would be looking to back the Tigers at plus 3.5 , not sure how much the heat took out of them , also have to take into account Manly injuries etc , I certainly will be looking at the Draw option on a few games this week. It is so close that golden point is going to get a a lot of play this year.

[benrama]

Draw on Tigers/Manly in particular is a really value play IMO, I see this being a very close game and reasonably low scoring - interested to see what the over/under is set at as well.

Posted this in angelo's thread but current leans for the weekend:

Cronulla
Canberra
Saints/Broncos
Manly

[benrama]

Have been looking into the last ODI tomorrow, and at odds of $2.05 I have to take the Sri Lankans. Look at how the sides (likely sides) match up:

1 David Warner, 2 Matthew Wade (wk), 3 Shane Watson (capt), 4 Peter Forrest, 5 Michael Hussey, 6 David Hussey, 7 Daniel Christian, 8 Brett Lee, 9 Nathan Lyon/Ben Hilfenhaus, 10 Clint McKay, 11 Xavier Doherty.

Warner played a really strange innings in the 2nd ODI (was he trying to throw the match? I mean, who scores 100 in 140 balls in this day and age??) and I think he must be much more injured than letting on. Even though he's scored centuries the last two innings he's given plenty of half chances and been putting shots in the air all over the place that have just fallen short. Wouldn't be surprised to see him either get out early or waste balls like he did in the 2nd ODI.

Wade is flakey and - still - hasn't translated his T20 form. Watson is still struggling back from injury and is also looking to use up quite a few balls before getting going. Forrest is still all new to playing at this level, but shows promise. Hussey's are solid, but are being left with too much to do. Christian hasn't put together any impressive knocks and Lee and the tail don't wag like they used to.

On the bowling Lee is carrying a broken foot, Doherty and McKay have been expensive and posing little threat to the batsmen.

Australia is struggling to have more Aussies than Lankans/Indians at home grounds this series.

And yet this side is favoured against?

1 Mahela Jayawardene (capt), 2 Tillakaratne Dilshan, 3 Kumar Sangakkara (wk), 4 Dinesh Chandimal, 5 Lahiru Thirimanne, 6 Upul Tharanga, 7 Chamara Kapugedara/Angelo Mathews, 8 Farveez Maharoof, 9 Nuwan Kulasekara, 10 Lasith Malinga, 11 Rangana Herath.

Sri Lanka basically bat 9 deep given what Kulasekara showed in the 1st ODI. Malinga's bowling has been first class - his ability to hit that yorker length at his speed is incredible, Herath can keeps things tight, Dilshan is probably the premier ODI all-rounder right now.

Getting Sri Lanka at $2.40 odd in the 2nd ODI was a steal, and I think getting them at >$2 odds for this match is also the value play:

1.5X Sri Lanka @ $2.05

[angelo63]

Have to agree with you on more Lankans and Indians at the grounds, 1 day cricket is dead RIP.
I picked up a good bet on the Lankans last night after the 7th over in their innings they were 0-45 or something like that and were 1.85 on Betfair which i though was generous.

Good Luck with the Bet , I will make a play 'In play" on the Lankans as the odds fluctuate so much.

[MatI]

I just put a bet on Sri Lanka a few minutes ago as well. Agree with your views for sure ben. Crazy that SL are opening as dogs!

Good luck.

[benrama]

Angelo - I was at the Aus vs Sri Lanka game at the SCG, one of the best day outs I've had in a long time. We were right in the section with the predominant Sri Lankan fans and they were good value with the drums and singing and wild cheering. I sure hope ODI's aren't dead, but certainly I expect T20's to increasingly dominate. You're right about live betting - again I just wish we didn't have a backwards nanny government that tells us we can only do it by phone. If Australia bats first and can put on a quick fire opening stand or if Sri Lanka bat first and lose a wicket early I think you'll get some generous odds.
Matl - good to hear mate! Generally we do pretty well when on the same game, let's hope it continues

[benrama]

Just put another unit on Sri Lanka at $2.35 now Watson is out. I expect Wade and Watson to grind things out and give Sri Lanka a chance of chasing a total under 290-300.

[MatI]

2/115 after 21 now.

Books are still juicing Aus, this should be PK at the moment. As long as the Lankans keep getting regular wickets they will be fine I think. Only run scores left for Aus are Wade & Hussey. These two go and the rest will struggle IMO.

[kingsr]

Sri Lamka 2.05 after Hussey wicket....nice bet Ben just in time

[benrama]

Books had Australian at pick-em even when down 4 wickets (!!), still sucking in those crazy homer betters. Even if Australia goes on to win this, that is a highly -EV bet.

Christian is over-rated in my opinion, and if he does stay in I expect him to eat up a lot of balls in the process, only Hussey can get them a decent total from here.

[Gee]

Nice play.

How did you only get $2.05.

I don't think I saw them that short at any book.

I got them at $2.10 at bet365 and was annoyed I didn't shop around more....

Massive RLM game this one. You just needed to look at betfair to realize that Sri Lanka had to be the play...

So far, so good.

[benrama]

Hey Gee, yea massive RLM, I actually got it better than that but I only post lines available at time of play.

Ended up playing a centrebet, Pinny didn't list the game for some reason?? Strange.

[Gee]

Yeah, I couldn't find the game on oddsportal, so it made shopping around a lot less appealing.

I dunno what was going on there.

Bloody McKay and Lee making some runs. Unreal.

[benrama]

First time tail has wagged since, well forever. I get the suspicion this game will still end up close ... I'm out for the evening. BOL fellas!

[MatI]

Not looking too promising at the moment.

[angelo63]

A trader mate had a future bet on Sri Lanka and traded at at 1.29 earlier. Still anything can happen.