Ben's Aussie Sports Picks 2012: NRL, AFL, Rugby, A-league and Cricket

[benrama]

Just updating my record so it's under control from the last 4 plays.

0.5X Adelaide @ $2.42
0.5X St George -2 @ $1.83
0.5X Jets/Glory over 2.5 goals @$1.90
0.5X GWS +35.5 @ $1.98


Current record
W/P/L: 6-1-7
Profit/Loss: -$43


Bloody A-league has been 4 of my losses - did well earlier in the season but dropping that sport for this thread. Have made some hedge bets in live play but obviously not going to post them here - I always get the shi.ts when people count live plays towards their record.

Plays so far have been small and will remain small till a good 4-5 weeks into footy season. I'm aiming for 20 units this year and $2,000 for the $100 better, and am pretty confident I'll get there.

Also interested to see the line on Australia vs Sri Lanka on Friday, the Sri Lankans are coming into a bit of form and if the Aussies are $3 type favourites like last time I'll probably have a value play on the Lankans.

[MatI]

Hi Beni,

Did you watch the Sri Lankan's these evening? I was on them for the win, but far out, they gave me a heart attack! I wouldn't touch them against the Aussie's. But depends how much they juice it of course.

[benrama]

I only watched them bat and followed the Indian innings loosely via cricinfo - agreed it looks like they were trying snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory there

Don't get me wrong I think they deserve to be underdogs against the Aussies, but the $3+ odds the SL have been at just makes it a "value" play on the Lankans. I watched Australia and Sri Lanka play live last Friday and the SL bowling and fielding was on the money, as was their batting which looks like it is gaining form.

It's a two horse race and the Aussie team is quite fragile if you really look at it: Wade's struggling to translate T20 form, Forrest still looking for a good innings, Watson (assume he comes back to replace Ponting) is returning from injury, Mike Hussey not as reliable as he used to be - really only Warner and D Hussey are the stars right now. And the highest wicket taker in the Aussie side for the first games was Michael Clarke so that tells you something. So this is not a Steve Waugh team of old and they should not be $3+ against a Sri Lankan team that has a lot of great talent also.

What odds would you put on the Aussies for Friday? I'd have them at $1.60-1.65, but if they open up more like $1.50 or below I'm on Sri Lanka for sure.

[MatI]

I pretty much agree with you assessment, but from what I have read they will just swap in Clarke for Ponting. No other changes. Not sure though?

Sri Lanka were VERY average in the field though. They should have had it over and done with a lot earlier. I think Aussies should be about 1.60-1.70 but I think I would be willing to take them at anything up to 1.50.

From what I saw though, I wouldn't take SL though, no matter the odds. Very average in the field. The only reason thy won that match was the absence of MS Dohni from the Indian squad.

[benrama]

Clarke is fit - you're right, so he'll be in as will Watson. In fact the Aussie team for Friday looks far stronger now as Hilf is back too:

Michael Clarke (captain), Shane Watson (vice-captain), Dan Christian, Xavier Doherty, Peter Forrest, Ryan Harris, Ben Hilfenhaus, David Hussey, Michael Hussey, Brett Lee, Clint McKay, Matthew Wade, David Warner.

I'm going to assume Wade or Forrest is left out, as is McKay or Harris - that's more like a solid team. Odds came are $1.57 for them at Centrebet. If they bat first and odds remain close to that I think they might be worth a play.

Lankans are so inconsistent I agree - I actually thought they were great in the field when I watched them at the SCG last Friday (then again - this was about 6 beers in ), but they don't do it game after game.

[MatI]

Yep, with that squad i would take Aus to win. I would go down to $1.50. Any lower and no play for me.

And yes, Friday was good for Lankans in the field, but very bad last night. Like you said. Very inconsistent.

[Shifty107]

Any thoughts on NZ in the 20-20 fellas?

Want to put some on the game and like the dog here.

[MatI]

T20 = coin flip

if you want action, take the home dog.. havent been following the two teams closely enough to know what their form is like..

[Shifty107]

My thoughts exactly. Cheers MatI.

[benrama]

Sorry didn't check in time, basically the only edge in these t20's when sides are closely matched is to see how much the books adjust towards the team that wins the toss - statistically I think the team first wins close to 60% IIRC

[benrama]

1X OKC (NBA) / Australia (ODI) @$2.10

Keeping these mixed plays to a minimum but I like both these plays and don't want to pay the juice.

[MatI]

I like it ben...

[MatI]

Lankans batting well. We are going to need some quick wickets...

[garygroundwork]

Australia ****** me tonight. How can you not defend 280. great run chase by the sri lankans...not easy chasing that score. still im done with cricket....****

[benrama]

I agree guys - WTF Australia! Didn't watch the second innings but Lankans must have played really well - and Australia bowled poorly - to chase that total down. You'd take that 99% of the time though, a bet at even money when you have the home team with 280 on the board - it happens. Just like Poker when you get your Aces cracked by some dude going all in with deuces

Hope you didn't go too big gary - there'll be plenty more good spots in cricket in the year to come!

[garygroundwork]

mate i went big but too bad. like u said after australia made 280 i jumped on. they should never of lost after posting that total.

[Beniphone]

You guys been following the nz vs sa matches? First ODI kicks off in an hour or so

[Shifty107]

Hey Ben, get it back today bro.

Do you like anything for the SA/NZ match?

[benrama]

Yea been following the NZ/SA T20 games - good entertaining contests, I think these two teams are pretty much evenly matched in that format. I really like the NZ top 5 batting (assuming Franklin plays), but they are light on experience in the bowling with all the new guys. Surprised they are $2.51 though - I know South Africa is strong (though surprised it looks like they've found no room for Levi or Morkel), but NZ are in good ODI form too and of course beat SA in the world cup.

If I was to make a play it would have to be on NZ on home soil and given their strong showing in the T20's, particularly if you can wait and see if they win the toss.

[Shifty107]

Cheers Ben. Was hoping you would say that. Gotta put it at the TAB so don't know if I can wait till the toss. Do you know if they have been leaving these one dayers open for live betting?

Good luck with you plays mate. Hope you're profitable.

PS: Footy's back next week. FUKKKK YEAAHHH

[Beniphone]

If its NZ tab they will have it live for sure

[benrama]

Good luck fellas, NZ batting first so hopefully they put up a nice score!

[benrama]

Current record
W/P/L: 6-1-8
Profit/Loss: -$143


Bloody SBR forum! Obviously won't count in this thread but had a good opening night money wise even if my team lost - Dragons +4 was really a gift from the bookmakers in my opinion, as was the under - wet weather and two solid defensive sides is almost an automatic under play if the points are set at 32+.


Interested to see what the over/under line is set at tonight - any books posted it yet? I can't see on it Centrebet, Sportsbet or Pinny. On a wet field without the Origin stars last year the game ended up 16-12. If the line is set at 36+, I'm playing the under.


I was initially leaning towards the Broncs, but still can't be sure how they'll function is a post Lockyer world. Without Hayne and Tonga, Eels will be seriously under strength. I expect a lot of kicking from Sandow in this game - and I think that could be the Eels best chance of scoring. Eels were also shocking under the high ball last season so I expect the a lot of high balls also from the Broncos.


With the Eels getting now +4.5 on a wet field, at home, in what I expect to be a closer game that some expect given the weather, I think the line is unplayable, so I'm going to go with the Broncs and combine them with the Reds - not making any plays less than $1.80 this season.


1.5X Broncos/Reds @ $1.83

[hawley]

Pinny total for tonight is 33.5. Opened at 36.5 but obviously got pounded pretty quick

[benrama]

Broncos have 4 tries in them tonight, pretty convinced of that, and Eels just need two then for the total to go over - I think this has been pounded too far the other way, late small play for me:

0.5X O32.5 Eels/Broncos @ $1.93

[MrXYZ]

Good luck tonight. I'm on the over as well. An early try by the Eels is a good sign.

[benrama]

Over was still the right play last night IMO, but broncos kept bombing chances in 1st half.

Going with both home teams tonight and the under in the panthers game - panthers defense is under rated and of course weather is still pouring rain here in Sydney, wet capital of the world.

1X panthers @ $2.00
1X panthers U34.5 @ $1.91
1X cowboys -5.5 @ $1.94

[benrama]

This Panthers vs Bulldogs game has been a cracker - and that hit that Pritchard got on Simmons was brutal. Panthers should have wrapped this up for all money, how many sets of 6 did they have on the Bulldogs try-line - lost count. That late fluke try to blow the under hurts ...

Hopefully cowgirls come through now.

[MatI]

Skipped the Panthers game, but on the girls as well. Let's get it.

[benrama]

Well, good game to choose to skip! Right pick, wrong result.

Not the best start with GC going in early, and NQ not completing a single bloody set, but long way to go, COME ON NQ!

BOL to both of us!

[kingsr]

That hit on Simmons will be in the highlight reel for years to come!

[rumple]

Cowboys look absolutely dreadful, wtf are they doing?

[kingsr]

It's the first game of the season, they're just warming up! We should be happy it's 6-0, it should be 28-0!

[benrama]

1.5X Broncos/Reds @ $1.83
0.5X O32.5 Eels/Broncos @ $1.93
1X panthers @ $2.00
1X panthers U34.5 @ $1.91
1X cowboys -5.5 @ $1.94

Current record
W/P/L: 7-1-12
Profit/Loss: -$368

Couldn't have asked for a better start to the season

It's only 3.5 units though and I'm keeping all my plays below 2 units for the time being.

If I back NQ to win again once this year can someone please slap me?

Tigers/Sharks game tomorrow should be a ripper of a game to watch, no more plays for me this weekend though, gotta' know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em.

[MatI]

Cowboys. What an embarrassment.