MrXYZ's NBL thread

That Guy · 02-26-12, 01:06 AM

cheers mate..
any plays for the other games tonight?
Looking at the O154 on the Blaze v Hawks game if they can back it

MrXYZ · 02-26-12, 01:44 AM

I'm on the over in the Blaze/Hawks. Posting it soon.

MrXYZ · 02-26-12, 01:57 AM

Sunday 26 February
Gold Coast Blaze vs Wollongong Hawks
Game Total OVER 154.5 @1.90

Rolling with the over. The books have set it 2 points under Friday's game with the expectation of fatigue and & both teams making adjustments slowing down the pace. I still think this game goes over though it'll be a close call.

MrXYZ · 02-26-12, 02:17 AM

Perth Wildcats vs Cairns Taipans
Taipans +8.5 @1.91

Although Perth are near impossible to beat at home, the Crocs dropped today's vital game against the Kings. Taipans can leapfrog them into the top 4 with a win, ensuring they'll be very competitive & giving them a good shot at covering the points. It still could end up a blowout to the home side, making it the riskiest play of the round.

MrXYZ · 02-26-12, 08:03 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Sunday 26 February
Sydney Kings vs Townsville Crocs
game total under 165.5 @1.90

Gold Coast Blaze vs Wollongong Hawks
Game Total OVER 154.5 @1.90

Perth Wildcats vs Cairns Taipans
Taipans +8.5 @1.91

Another clean sweep to finish of the round! Kings were able to grind out low scoring win, Taipans with a huge upset & Blaze/Hawks over hit by 2.5 points.

Updated Record: 31-28-1 52.5%

garygroundwork · 02-27-12, 03:51 AM

top work mate

garygroundwork · 03-02-12, 02:27 AM

like anything this weekend???

MrXYZ · 03-02-12, 09:29 PM

Originally posted by garygroundwork

top work mate

Thanks! I'll have one or 2 plays this round.

MrXYZ · 03-03-12, 02:48 AM

Saturday 03 March
GOLD COAST BLAZE vs CAIRNS TAIPANS
Game Total OVER 151.5 @1.90

That Guy · 03-03-12, 03:28 AM

Cheers mate.
Could only get 153 at my book but took it.
Good luck!

garygroundwork · 03-03-12, 06:23 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Saturday 03 March
GOLD COAST BLAZE vs CAIRNS TAIPANS
Game Total OVER 151.5 @1.90

hawley · 03-03-12, 06:27 AM

That over was almost too easy

That Guy · 03-03-12, 08:21 AM

good work!
made up for a dog night on the NRL.. much appreciated

MrXYZ · 03-03-12, 09:33 AM

Thanks for the kind words, it's awesome to see you guys cashed the easy money on the total.

This play just about rescued my night after a shocker on the NRL. lol.

That Guy · 03-04-12, 12:19 AM

Any plays tonight mate?

MrXYZ · 03-04-12, 02:19 AM

Originally posted by That Guy

Any plays tonight mate?

I got a couple of leans, not sure if I'll play them.

MrXYZ · 03-04-12, 02:37 AM

Sunday 4 March
PERTH WILDCATS vs NZL BREAKERS
Game Total OVER 160.5 @1.90

It's a sharp number and hopefully both teams will shoot reasonably well enough to get this over the line. I could see this going into OT so I'm laying off picking a side. The game of the round, it deserves to be broadcast live in this country.

GOLD COAST BLAZE vs SYDNEY KINGS
KINGS +9.5 @1.91

b2bs are rare in the NBL, and although it's possible the Blaze win this by double digits, the Kings have shown enough since Heal's arrival for me to take a shot at them covering the points.

MrXYZ · 03-04-12, 07:37 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Saturday 03 March
GOLD COAST BLAZE vs CAIRNS TAIPANS
Game Total OVER 151.5 @1.90

Sunday 4 March
PERTH WILDCATS vs NZL BREAKERS
Game Total OVER 160.5 @1.90

GOLD COAST BLAZE vs SYDNEY KINGS
KINGS +9.5 @1.91

As predicted Wildcats/Breakers went into OT with a 101-99 scoreline easily cashing the total. Then the Kings put on a brave performance, surviving Kazzouh's injury & Deleon's blitz to go down 90-83 to the Blaze.

Another perfect round in the NBL, very happy with the turnaround in fortunes.

Updated Record: 34-28-1 54.8%

That Guy · 03-04-12, 08:39 AM

thanks mate.. appreciate your work!

garygroundwork · 03-05-12, 03:54 AM

here here !

MrXYZ · 03-08-12, 06:48 PM

Friday 9 March
SYDNEY KINGS vs WOLLONGONG HAWKS
Game Total OVER 158.5 @1.90

Both teams are out of the playoff race for the year, making it a good opportunity to take the over. A reasonable shooting % should see enough points to get it home with room to spare. However this is the NBL and we've seen some shocking displays all year.

Good luck.

garygroundwork · 03-09-12, 06:57 AM

u r on a roll mate

MrXYZ · 03-10-12, 11:40 PM

Sunday 11 March
PERTH WILDCATS vs CAIRNS TAIPANS
Game Total OVER 151.5 @1.90

A crucial game for both teams & I'm expecting a fairly low scoring game, though at this number we have an excellent chance to cash the over by 4-6 points.

That Guy · 03-14-12, 10:35 PM

any action on NZ vs GC tonight?
Over / under looks really sharp at 164.5

MrXYZ · 03-16-12, 03:05 AM

I passed on that game, too much of a coin toss. We had a run of great value over plays but it looks like the books are starting to adjust their totals. Playoffs around the corner so we might see some lower scoring games this round.

MrXYZ · 03-16-12, 11:04 PM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Friday 9 March
SYDNEY KINGS vs WOLLONGONG HAWKS
Game Total OVER 158.5 @1.90

Sunday 11 March
PERTH WILDCATS vs CAIRNS TAIPANS
Game Total OVER 151.5 @1.90

2-0
Updated Record: 36-28-1 56.25%

The streak continues! Let's try to keep it going today.

MrXYZ · 03-16-12, 11:22 PM

Saturday 17 March
SYDNEY KINGS vs CAIRNS TAIPANS
Game Total OVER 152.5 @1.90

Their last encounter was a low scoring game with neither team cracking 70 points. Since then Heal's coaching has revitalized the Kings while Taipans are fighting for a playoff spot. They should be too much for the visitors & jump out to an early lead. If so we'll need them to carry the load to get this one over the line.

MrXYZ · 03-17-12, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Saturday 17 March
SYDNEY KINGS vs CAIRNS TAIPANS
Game Total OVER 152.5 @1.90

I had this one being close & the over was dead until the Taipans went for quick scoring & fouls to get them back in the game with less than a minute to go. Got lucky this time & winning the streak lives on.

Books are putting out sharp numbers this week. It's been fun to smash them for setting their totals too low for the past few weeks but it looks like they've woken up. I scraped home by 1.5 points and over backers in the 36ers/Blaze game got one of the toughest beats in a while when a 83-84 score killed their 167.5 play.

garygroundwork · 03-17-12, 08:47 PM

well played again.

Shifty107 · 03-18-12, 01:52 AM

Any play for Melbourne v Wollongong tonight bro. Was thinking of taking the Hawks on the money line but both teams really have nothing to play for.

MrXYZ · 03-18-12, 02:06 AM

Thanks.

No play on the Tigers/Hawks. Two crap teams with nothing to play for. The books have the total set at 155.5. A sharp number as they know we expect both will struggle to get to 80, tempting under backers, yet at the same time a good shooting effort and some relaxed defense could sneak the over home.

MrXYZ · 03-18-12, 02:11 AM

Agree with you Shifty, the value play is Hawks ML. Though it's a pointless game, the Tigers could decide to go all out for a win to entertain the home fans.

hawley · 03-18-12, 03:04 AM

Hey pal you been actively following the NBL.

Just wanted to look ahead to next weekend and get your thoughts on this. The Breakers basically can choose their first round playoff opponents IMO as I think they can take the Crocs on the road on friday.

With that being said who do you think they want to play first round?

I think the Breakers would rather play the Crocs as the Blaze are much more dangerous and capable of scoring in bunches on any given day. That being said the way the Breakers dismantled the Blaze the other night makes me wonder if they even mind who they face.

Basically what I am thinking is the Breakers win against the Crocs on friday then take it easy / rest players against the Blaze on sunday to ensure the Blaze face the Wildcats in the first round.

There is a pretty good chance the Breakers just play hard both games and take whatever result happens but I think this is worth thinking about.

It blatantly happened in the final round last season when the Crocs rested in the final game against the Taipans but that was a different scenario slightly.

Let me know your thoughts anyway. Being the NBL it is hardly worth a big play regardless but I am interested to see what you think

hawley · 03-19-12, 01:27 AM

this article explains what I tried to explain with that massive dribble last night

NZ games to define final order

http://www.theage.com.au/sport/basketball/nz-games-to-define-final-order-20120318-1vdnf.html

MrXYZ · 03-19-12, 07:02 AM

Thanks for the heads up Hawley. NZ Breakers would much rather face the Crocs in the opening round as they are the weakest of the finalists. Taipans deserved that 4 spot. But as we saw, their season ended thanks to an epic fail against the Kings. Of all teams. Typical lol moment in the NBL.

Gold Coast are the dark horse this year & I think they have a genuine shot at a first round upset. The Breakers would me far more confident about retaining the champtionship if Perth was knocked out of the race.

I'm expecting a few high scoring games this week and it'll be interesting to see what the books come up with.