MrXYZ's NBL thread

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 26 November
ADELAIDE 36ers vs GOLD COAST BLAZE
GOLD COAST -1.5 @1.91

Blaze cruise past the 36ers & cash this one with an easy 92-85 win.

Round 8: 2-0
NBL season record: 13-9-1

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 27 November
PERTH WILDCATS vs SYDNEY KINGS
Game Total OVER 165.5 @1.90

Going with the over in this one. With 12.5 points on offer, I don't see much value on either side. We should see a fast-paced shootout, but with the Kings you never know what's in store & it might come down to the last minute to see this one home.

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 27 November
PERTH WILDCATS vs SYDNEY KINGS
Game Total OVER 165.5 @1.90

Wildcats overpower the Kings 103-92 for another easy winner to sweep the weekend!



Round 8: 3-0
NBL Season: 14-9-1

[StevoS]

Congrats on the weekend sweep and on a very nice season record so far. Keep it up

[MrXYZ]

Congrats on the weekend sweep and on a very nice season record so far. Keep it up

Thanks Stevo. Good luck with your plays. I'll try to keep the momentum going this week. .

[MrXYZ]

Friday 2 December
CAIRNS TAIPANS vs GOLD COAST BLAZE
BLAZE -2.5 @1.85

Blaze should continue their winning streak tonight against the Taipans. I'm expecting them pull away in the 4th quarter to easily cover the points, though not without some tense moments.

[MrXYZ]

Friday 2 December
CAIRNS TAIPANS vs GOLD COAST BLAZE
BLAZE -2.5 @1.85

The Taipans score a 87-78 win thanks to a terrible Blaze 4th quarter. They gave away the game with Adris Delon's dreadful 27% shooting summing up a lacklustre effort. I was on the wrong side this time, my apologies to anyone who tailed.

0-1
NBL Season: 14-10-1

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 3 December
TOWNSVILLE CROCODILES vs WOLLONGONG HAWKS
Game Total OVER 160.5 @1.90

Going with the over in this one, this is a tough number but it's worth a shot as there's a good chance of it going into overtime.

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 3 December
TOWNSVILLE CROCODILES vs WOLLONGONG HAWKS
Game Total OVER 160.5 @1.90

Cash it! This one was in danger at 79-72 with one minute to go, then the Cats hit 3 straight 3s to virtually send it into OT. Finally a last second foul gets the Crocs home 82-81. Most punters pounded the under & got killed. Thanks to them I got another 1x at 159.5 just before tipoff.



Round 9: 1-1
NBL Season: 15-10-1

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 4 December
SYDNEY KINGS vs CAIRNS TAIPANS
Game Total OVER 155.5 @1.90

This one's been set very low - the Kings have a terrrible home record this year & Taipans could slow it down to grind the game out. However I'm expecting a much better performance from the Kings, and the Taipans to come out strong after toppling the Blaze. There's always a risk with these two hit & miss teams but a number like this offers excellent value.

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 4 December
SYDNEY KINGS vs CAIRNS TAIPANS
Game Total OVER 155.5 @1.90

Taipans shoot bricks all night and the Kings do just enough to scrape home for a 69-64 win. This league loves to embarrass itself. Maybe they should start broadcasting games on the Comedy Channel. Can't wait for the NBA.

Round 9: 1-2
NBL Season: 15-11-1

[benrama]

I can't wait for the NBA either, NBL is like watching amateur hour at the local. That said, I did enjoy that Breakers v Crocs game, even if I was only following it degenerately on Bet365

I make all my money from the NBA in live betting, basically look to get good teams at close to even ML's (at home), and at 2-3+ points above the closing line on the road. Works pretty well but means you have to be watching the games a lot which I can't do as often as I'd like.

What was your record like in the NBA last year?

[MrXYZ]

I did quite well in the NBA last season, but it would be false to claim any real merit for it. My own capping was average at best and it was mostly through tailing Sweetjones55 on the NBA thread (my comment's on his website, I honestly made $12k thanks to him). I also learnt a lot from the other top cappers like LTA & LakerCrazy. Did see a ton of games though, and it was a 24/7 operation at times. What made a big difference in my profits was much smaller/less frequent betting in the playoffs, I knew it would be unpredictable and stuck mostly to futures plus a few action plays on pivotal games. I was dead wrong on Dallas/Lakers but had the Celtics/Knicks. Couldn't help myself & lost a couple of units on game 6 Dallas/Heat game lol.

That's a great use of live betting, I hope it continues to cash for you this season. Did a bit of it, mostly to hedge out big plays at half time. It saved me when the Heat blew those leads against Magic & the Bulls.

[MrXYZ]

Thursday 8 December
NEW ZEALAND BREAKERS vs GOLD COAST BLAZE
Game Total OVER 176.0 @1.90

It's a very high number & this kind of NBL total is always risk on the over, however I'm expecting one of these teams to score 100. We'll see if they can do it & cash this one for us.

[MatI]

Every preview and article of the game is saying its going to be a run and gun, big scoring game. I think the over will be the public play. (as public as you can get for NBL). It makes me want to stay well away.

[hawley]

Might be a public play but I still think it will be a high tempo game.

As is often the case it will depend on whether these gumps actually hit their shots.

[MrXYZ]

Thursday 8 December
NEW ZEALAND BREAKERS vs GOLD COAST BLAZE
Game Total OVER 176.0 @1.90

As expected, the Breakers scored 106 & the Blaze poured in 85 to send this one home a winner. I didn't give much thought to it being a public play, just a higher probability one given the situation. I would never take the under with these two teams unless the total was set above 180 or if it was a playoff game.

Easy money tonight, let's see if the books start setting higher totals next week. There's definitely a trend towards the over during this part of the season. Good luck everyone with your plays.

1-0
NBL Season: 16-11-1

[MatI]

I was sceptical, experting a little more D after the previous run and guns. Well done!

[MrXYZ]

I was sceptical, experting a little more D after the previous run and guns. Well done!

Thanks & good luck this weekend.

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 10 December
CAIRNS TAIPANS vs MELBOURNE TIGERS
Game Total OVER 155.5 @1.95

The under seems the more obvious play in this one & the books are juicing it, but I expect a higher scoring game that most punters predict. Of course I could be dead wrong, but see real value at this number tonight.

[hangtime]

Saturday 10 December
CAIRNS TAIPANS vs MELBOURNE TIGERS
Game Total OVER 155.5 @1.95

The under seems the more obvious play in this one & the books are juicing it, but I expect a higher scoring game that most punters predict. Of course I could be dead wrong, but see real value at this number tonight.

100% agree. though i do think tigers+5.5 is a stronger play. gl.

[MrXYZ]

I'm sticking with the total, however Tigers +5.5 is a great play, good luck tonight!

[hawley]

I am going to take the over in some form (1q / 1h / game)

It has dropped a long way at pinnacle. It concerns me

[hawley]

I am going to take the over in some form (1q / 1h / game)

It has dropped a long way at pinnacle. It concerns me

We got lucky here with OT. Pinny lean was sharp

Cash is cash though.

[hangtime]

nice hit. on to tmrw

[hawley]

nice hit. on to tmrw

Big card tomorrow too.

[MrXYZ]

What a game, even with OT the play only scraped home. Gotta thank the gambling gods for this one. Looks like we all cashed tonight, well done guys!

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 11 December
ADELAIDE 36ERS vs NEW ZEALAND BREAKERS
NZ BREAKERS ML@1.88
Game total UNDER 179.5@1.90

TOWNSVILLE CROCODILES vs SYDNEY KINGS
SYDNEY +5.0 @1.91

No time for writeups, tail or fade, good luck everyone

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 10 December
CAIRNS TAIPANS vs MELBOURNE TIGERS
Game Total OVER 155.5 @1.95

Sunday 11 December
ADELAIDE 36ERS vs NEW ZEALAND BREAKERS
NZ BREAKERS ML@1.88
Game total UNDER 179.5@1.90

TOWNSVILLE CROCODILES vs SYDNEY KINGS
SYDNEY +5.0 @1.91

Threw a few bucks at Perth Wildcats but it won't be included in my record as I dint post it here. 2-1 for the day. Cashed both NZ plays but the Kings again let me down. If Kazzouh does get signed up by Golden State, NBL in Sydney is finished. Overall though, I'm very happy with the result of this week's picks. .

Round 10: 4-1
NBL season record: 19-12-1 61.29%

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 17 December
GOLD COAST BLAZE vs PERTH WILDCATS
PERTH ML @1.98

A tough game that will have lead changes throughout. The Wildcats should take this one though. If Blaze shoot well they could run away early & kill the play. But it's worth a shot as it's not often you get Perth at these odds.

[MatI]

GL mate. Let's get it.

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 17 December
GOLD COAST BLAZE vs PERTH WILDCATS
PERTH ML @1.98

Wow. Wildcats could only manage 22 points in the second half, unbelieveable collapse after we had this one in the bank. I went way too big on the cats +3.5 @1.58 in a degen play with Centrebet's Pick Your Own Line and came within a half point of a massive loss. Got greedy & almost paid the price. Cashed that one but nothing to be proud of. Might post the ticket.

Perth are done for the Championship, they'll never come back from this disaster.

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 18 December
MELBOURNE TIGERS vs TOWNSVILLE CROCODILES
Game Total OVER 164.5 @1.90

Going with the over, let's close out the round with a winner .

[MrXYZ]

Adding:
MELBOURNE TIGERS -3.5 @1.85

[MatI]

GL tonight, I am not super confident on this game, will lay off.