Bic's 2011 AFL Season Thread

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  • Brian891
    SBR MVP
    • 04-28-10
    • 2049

    #36
    just getting the hang of this game. wc up 8-7 early. i was hoping port adelaide would come out and hand em a whooping at home.
    Comment
    • Brian891
      SBR MVP
      • 04-28-10
      • 2049

      #37
      15-7 now. boy aussie rules just HATES me for some reason so far. i thought home field was important in afl. port adelaide looks pretty awful. any input from seasoned vets is appreciated. are these high scoring teams? last game i wathced was 47-46. if this is like that it seems it might be over already. i am of the impression that being a 14 point fav means little in afl.
      Comment
      • Brian891
        SBR MVP
        • 04-28-10
        • 2049

        #38
        24-14. seems port adelaide is getting crushed. anyone around who can tell me if this is normal to start or if power are just a bad team and bad bet?
        Comment
        • Alt75
          Restricted User
          • 07-02-10
          • 573

          #39
          It's still early in the game don't start worrying yet. I'm listening on the radio, Port got off to a bad start but they seem to be settling and getting back into it now.

          24-14 isn't a great margin in the first or second quarter. Goal = 6 points. That margin can change in 2 minutes. If it's over 20 points in the last 15 odd minutes then you should be concerned. Port should get up and run away with it in the 2nd half.
          Comment
          • Alt75
            Restricted User
            • 07-02-10
            • 573

            #40
            Originally posted by Bic
            Wow... Richmond really surprising me, or is it that St Kilda's pre season has affected there on field performance?

            (LOCKED) Port Adelaide -3.5/Carlton -7.5 @2.03 x2

            Yeah Richmond surprised me too. I wasn't expecting them to get within 2-3 goals of the Saints. I think St.Kilda just fold when they are pressured, they won't win a GF with the mentality of their current list not being able to win the close ones.

            Good luck on that punt. I changed my tip from WCE to Port after second thoughts, few bucks on Pies -40 and Port 1-39 multi.

            Eagles up by 18 just before half time.
            Comment
            • Brian891
              SBR MVP
              • 04-28-10
              • 2049

              #41
              port down 19 at half. from what u r saying that is manageable, correct? wouldnt u think a team at home should be winning against a team missing their best player? i have to believe right now i am worlds worst footy jinx. 2 favs, 1 at home against worst road team in the sport, just getting handled. really hope they come back, but if not i get it. i see the sign. im not supposed to wager on aussie. yikes.
              Comment
              • Brian891
                SBR MVP
                • 04-28-10
                • 2049

                #42
                they cut it to 1 goal and then seemed to quit again. very disappointing. hopefully they pull it together in 2nd half. i mean, wc hasnt won there in how long? wouldnt u feel like a bit of a jinx? i dont believe in that stuff, but if port loses ill start to wonder.
                Comment
                • Cobra Kai
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 06-17-10
                  • 265

                  #43
                  West Coast will win this game, they are a different team mentally to what they were last year.
                  Comment
                  • Brian891
                    SBR MVP
                    • 04-28-10
                    • 2049

                    #44
                    sorry bic. thats 2 i cost u with my tailing.
                    Comment
                    • Alt75
                      Restricted User
                      • 07-02-10
                      • 573

                      #45
                      Yeah 20 points at half time isn't a huge margin as it would be in NBA/NFL for instance. The flow of an AFL game can change quite quickly. As you saw Port got it back to within 8 points or so and then back out to 24, then to 19 within the space of 7-8 mins. With Eagles travelling, being away and the feral Port Adelaide crowd behind them, Port hopefully have the legs and the depth to come good.

                      The problem is Port were getting beat in their midfield, which is the key area teams need to control, with a few changes in position and strategy the coach could fix that you can have you best goal kicker out, but if the midfield is winning the ball and constantly feeding the forward line there are 18 other guys on the field who can kick goals.

                      You're not a jinx, this was just a bit of an iffy game to bet on despite the home ground advantage and Eagles poor record against Port at AAMI it's still a bit early in the season to see where teams are at. Any of the lower teams can upset the others.

                      Collingwood -15.5, -24.5 or even -40 was the correct play for today. I wish I had have taken the -100 line at $17
                      Comment
                      • Brian891
                        SBR MVP
                        • 04-28-10
                        • 2049

                        #46
                        yeah not getting a good vibe. unless port comes out on fire, it seems like they quit already.
                        Comment
                        • Brian891
                          SBR MVP
                          • 04-28-10
                          • 2049

                          #47
                          goal for wc. port sucks fukkk me. they arent fixing anything. they really suck. damn. guess im done with aussie for a while. sorry bic. 2 games 2 awful performances. ugh. thought port would put together some sort of effort to start 2nd half, but gave up immediate goal. sigh. luck not on my side.
                          Comment
                          • Cobra Kai
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 06-17-10
                            • 265

                            #48
                            Originally posted by Brian891
                            yeah not getting a good vibe. unless port comes out on fire, it seems like they quit already.
                            Chin up mate, 2 from 2 aint the end of the world, still early on in the season. My play for the day is Geelong straight up, I have a feeling Fremantle are going to dissapoint many this season.
                            Comment
                            • Brian891
                              SBR MVP
                              • 04-28-10
                              • 2049

                              #49
                              thanks. ill take fremantle and guarantee u a victory! hahaha. started an account to dabble with 100, so not too worried. just thought maybe id do well. whoops!
                              Comment
                              • Brian891
                                SBR MVP
                                • 04-28-10
                                • 2049

                                #50
                                14 is as close as it will get i think. exact spread port was favored by. nice kick in the pants.
                                Comment
                                • Alt75
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 07-02-10
                                  • 573

                                  #51
                                  Brian891 if you want a good tip, although not great value for this round: Western Bulldogs straight over Brisbane Lions. I'm a lifelong Lion supporter and I can tell you we have less than 0.1% of winning tommorow. We have a young inexperienced side, playing interstate, our captain and best player is out with a smashed face. We'll be lucky to win more than 2-3 games for the season. This isn't one of em.

                                  Bulldogs will most certainly win, should easily cover the -15.5 / -24.5 line, -40 and -60 are likely to pay out too.
                                  Comment
                                  • Brian891
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 04-28-10
                                    • 2049

                                    #52
                                    cut it to 9 then got smoked. i really have to stop listening to people and go with my gut. why was this such a solid pick? if i dont do my own research i deserve to get burned.
                                    Comment
                                    • Brian891
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 04-28-10
                                      • 2049

                                      #53
                                      thanks alt75. might be a little too frightened of aussie. from what bic said today i thought port would roll and they r getting annihilated at home.
                                      Comment
                                      • Brian891
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 04-28-10
                                        • 2049

                                        #54
                                        88-64 going into 4th. wow. unfreakinbelievable. at least saints were close. jesus. to lose at home like that? this port team has mailed it in for the year already. embarrassing huh?
                                        Comment
                                        • Alt75
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 07-02-10
                                          • 573

                                          #55
                                          Don't give up yet Brian, Port are still in this and there's still a quarter of football to play. 2 quick goals to Port back to 12 points, good momenetum for Port going into the last break.
                                          Comment
                                          • Brian891
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 04-28-10
                                            • 2049

                                            #56
                                            only 4 behinds seems like an awfully low total. is that the norm with port? only 4 in 3 quarters?
                                            Comment
                                            • Brian891
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 04-28-10
                                              • 2049

                                              #57
                                              im a gloomy gus. hate rooting for a trailing team. really hope they can pull it out. 10 points to everyone in this thread if they do!
                                              Comment
                                              • Cobra Kai
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 06-17-10
                                                • 265

                                                #58
                                                Don't be fooled, port still have a shot to win this game. I've seen it done countless times before from similar positions. I just wouldnt count on Port to do it, they're one of my least favourite teams to bet on seeing as some weeks they look solid and other weeks often quite close together they get absolutley smashed. In saying that though there's still a chance.
                                                Comment
                                                • Alt75
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 07-02-10
                                                  • 573

                                                  #59
                                                  Low amount of behinds is a sign of straight kicking for a goal. If the behinds are higher than goals, it usually means the forwards can't kick straight or the defenders are under constant pressure and rushing them. Although the rule on defense rushing behinds for a kickout has been changed so it doesn't happen as much.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Brian891
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 04-28-10
                                                    • 2049

                                                    #60
                                                    thanks alt. threw u a few points for your kindness in helping me follow the game.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Alt75
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 07-02-10
                                                      • 573

                                                      #61
                                                      Down to 5 points. 1 straight kick changes it.

                                                      As I said earlier, the Eagles travelling and the feral Port Adelaide crowd should factor into Port coming home strong in the last quarter.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Brian891
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 04-28-10
                                                        • 2049

                                                        #62
                                                        port chokes again. cannot keep momentum. its 11 again. very discouraging to have the crowd roaring and just get deflated like that. i almost go back to port wagering against themselves. its as if they dont want to win.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Alt75
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 07-02-10
                                                          • 573

                                                          #63
                                                          aww cheers Brian, happy to help mate
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Brian891
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 04-28-10
                                                            • 2049

                                                            #64
                                                            12. port seems to have quit again and are being dominated. if west could hit goalsit would be over, but i have a feeling it already is.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Alt75
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 07-02-10
                                                              • 573

                                                              #65
                                                              Back to 5 points. Come on Port!!!

                                                              Port aren't giving up, it's just how footy games pan out, often back and forth nailbiters like NBA.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Brian891
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 04-28-10
                                                                • 2049

                                                                #66
                                                                7 now. it seems like wc has just had more shots and they r pacing game. wish port could just get rolling dangit!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Brian891
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 04-28-10
                                                                  • 2049

                                                                  #67
                                                                  they r running out of time.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Brian891
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 04-28-10
                                                                    • 2049

                                                                    #68
                                                                    almost wouldve preferred blowout if they r going to choke this away.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Cobra Kai
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 06-17-10
                                                                      • 265

                                                                      #69
                                                                      What a game.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Brian891
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 04-28-10
                                                                        • 2049

                                                                        #70
                                                                        13. its over. fuk you port for coming back and giving me hope, then kicking me in the nuts. i hope they lose EVERY game. man that pisses me off. what a despicable, choke effort.
                                                                        Comment
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