NBL season

**Coochiemudlo** · 04-07-11, 03:48 AM

Originally posted by hawley

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news...ectid=10716310

Read this article guys, should we hammer Cairns??

Surely the Crocs would rather a local playoff than playing Perth

So whats the consensus on this game? I dont follow the nbl and by the looks of the odds the bookies doesnt think they will let the game go??

However the thinking behind droping the match for a easier finals does ring true.

**hawley** · 04-07-11, 04:34 AM

Originally posted by Coochiemudlo

So whats the consensus on this game? I dont follow the nbl and by the looks of the odds the bookies doesnt think they will let the game go??

However the thinking behind droping the match for a easier finals does ring true.

the Taipans won easily in the end

I went relatively large on them both ml and spread although I was put off slightly by reading additional articles from the Croc's coach saying they wouldnt be tanking

I didnt watch the game, just checked the box score a few times so cant comment on Townsvilles effort

**Coochiemudlo** · 04-07-11, 04:43 AM

OOps my bad I thought the game was tomorrow night as its the same matchup. Thanks for the feeback hawley. I was looking at what i though was the upcoming game, drooling at the $2.95 ml

**binomial** · 04-07-11, 08:14 PM

couldn't believe how clear it looked that NZ were done about one minute into the second half after perth hit a couple of shots. nz got the fear and shat the bed. their coach is terrible. they deserve it for the beard thing anyway, hows that gimmick working out for you?

Townsville cairns under 153 2u
totals this season have been 149, 107, 155 and 144. Playoff intestity may lead to it staying under 100.
Cairns +6 1u
home team has won every match by about half a dozen, but my feeling is this will be a close game and low scoring so like getting 6.

**Gee** · 04-07-11, 11:31 PM

what a great game for wildcats. litsch just went off.

sunday is going to be fun hopefully!

the under was shot in about 8 mins. luckily i missed it - i was cursing when i realized the game was delayed... then glad when it sailed over. unlucky guys - extremely lucky for me. at least i had already punched the wildcats in (i was hoping to add to it, but would have just cancelled my under anyway).

**hawley** · 04-08-11, 03:21 PM

Originally posted by binomial

couldn't believe how clear it looked that NZ were done about one minute into the second half after perth hit a couple of shots. nz got the fear and shat the bed. their coach is terrible. they deserve it for the beard thing anyway, hows that gimmick working out for you?

Townsville cairns under 153 2u
totals this season have been 149, 107, 155 and 144. Playoff intestity may lead to it staying under 100.
Cairns +6 1u
home team has won every match by about half a dozen, but my feeling is this will be a close game and low scoring so like getting 6.

Good cash on the under last night, I took it as well and unfortunately jinxed myself and called OT right at the start of the 4th quarter. I figured with 2 minutes to go in OT the only way we cashed was if they kept missing and Cairns had the final shot to tie it up / win it to avoid fouls.

What do you make of the total tonight - 167?

I guess it could be either the game being a b2b and the game being at Cairns not Townsville?

I cant figure out why else the total would jump, although I do know the Crocs scores are always very low at home.

**binomial** · 04-08-11, 04:30 PM

think you are looking at the perth nz game two number.

i reckon they will set the cairns game around 140.

**hawley** · 04-09-11, 12:39 AM

na mate, thats the total i have for tonight

o/u 167

**Hory** · 04-09-11, 01:17 AM

I think our local made a mistake copying the line from centerbet, they have a 167.5 total for the breakers game and none for cairns, yet our local has it the other way round
I want to see another book's total for the cairns game before I hammer it too hard, but it seems no-one else has a total up

**hawley** · 04-09-11, 01:52 AM

tab.com.au has it at 152

**Hory** · 04-09-11, 03:04 AM

hmm and centerbet have finally got a total up of 150.5
I've hammered the under 167.5 now

hopefully this won't be a disaster

**binomial** · 04-09-11, 03:16 AM

some concern due to hot 3p shooting in the second half yesterday, but b2b makes this an under again for me.

all the numbers i see are 150-153 so 167 does seem a mistake and bargain.

**hawley** · 04-09-11, 06:39 AM

the under was paid out, what a gift

**binomial** · 04-09-11, 10:01 PM

ty lawson has 10/10 3ps for denver with a quarter to go.

killing my under single handed.

was thinking perth game was an under setup, but just think perth will be able to score against the joke nz defence. they got 90 in game 1 and lisch was the only player to shoot the ball decent. think they can get 90 again which makes it hard for it to go under unless NZ play like they did in G12H for the whole game.

going with Perth as well. it took basically nothing for NZ to fall apart and dont think they have the character to get back on track.

**therealdealau** · 04-10-11, 08:46 AM

Carn the breakers

**binomial** · 04-12-11, 05:59 PM

thinking travel is major factor here. NZ had to travel to perth and back and are now back in their comfort zone. perth have done the 5000+ks three times in around 7 days cant see this being good on the system.

not sure if this is enough to take -5 though.

coming from a deficit at 3Q time must also do alot for their confidence.

**Gee** · 04-12-11, 06:23 PM

I don't get these NBL lines. 10 point shifts from home/away make them very hard to take. I guess the value is always on the dog getting 5 points.

Both games were decided by the two stars going off for their respective teams - litsch in g1 and penney in g2.

after the first two games, the bookies have now caught on and total is at 169.5. (i hit the over hard in the last one).

I think this might have to be a no play. i don't trust it.

**hawley** · 04-12-11, 08:32 PM

cashed big on the over last game and got the Breakers paying 2.70 start of hte 4th quarter for a nice chunk.

I think im going to stay away from the spread and play it live, but take the over again

over 43 1q might be my biggest play

**Gee** · 04-12-11, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by hawley

cashed big on the over last game and got the Breakers paying 2.70 start of hte 4th quarter for a nice chunk. I think im going to stay away from the spread and play it live, but take the over again over 43 1q might be my biggest play

yes, i think i will be playing that too.

i think a side is just too hard here.... you couldnt justify taking the under... over all the way

**twarby** · 04-12-11, 10:21 PM

havn't posted on here for a while, here are my thoughts for tonight

they met three times in the regular season, with the home side getting the points in each match.. Breakers got up twice by very small margins, Perth blew NZ away by 40 pts.. Redhage is no longer playing so i think only the last three matches are the important ones to look back at for capping.

its the same story though, Breakers have won 2 close ones (4pts and 3pts), while Perth smashed NZ last week by 23 pts.

Perths offensive efficiency has been great in each of their matches against NZ so i feel they keep this close regardless of how good NZ play offensively

Perth +5

First Half > 85(these two average 93 pt first halfs, even during the playoffs their possessions per game continues to stay well above the league average, and both teams leak points on Defence.

the full time total also looks good, but i won't play that as their 2nd halfs only average 81, maybe wait for InPlay for something.

another bet i love is the first quarter total/TT.
Breakers average 26.7, Perth 22.3.

Kevin Lisch most points vs Wilkinson, Bruton, Braswell

Lisch averages almost 20 pts against NZ, 6 more than the next best from this group (Wilkinson), Lisch averages more field goal attempts and is 2nd to only Bruton in 3 pointers made/attempted

Lisch @ 2.80 is too good to pass up, Bruton at 7 is good value too

GL

**hawley** · 04-12-11, 11:09 PM

Has to be over or no play IMO

this is no a typical playoff battle with defense winning out, the Breakers play terrible defense and basically rely on outscoring their opponents, but also manage to commit a ton of fouls and allow plenty of points.

Hopefully the game is close enough down the stretch to see some late fouls as well.

We have not seen the best of Wilkinson this series, if the Wildcats manage to slow Penney down I wouldnt be surprised to see him score 20+

**binomial** · 04-13-11, 12:18 AM

playing under 171.5 1u

**Gee** · 04-13-11, 12:36 AM

if you want the over guys, get in on sportingbet now.

169.5.

every other site i've looked is hanging 171.5 or 171.

i watched both games carefully. both teams know they have to push it to score. neither have looked great in the half court set.

over all the way for me.

**Gee** · 04-13-11, 02:21 AM

Originally posted by hawley

cashed big on the over last game and got the Breakers paying 2.70 start of hte 4th quarter for a nice chunk. I think im going to stay away from the spread and play it live, but take the over again over 43 1q might be my biggest play

5 mins to go and i'm calling it over for the quarter

for you.

I couldnt find a 1Q line. where did you get yours from?

I have 1H over and game over to win a total of 200.

**hawley** · 04-13-11, 02:27 AM

Originally posted by Gee

5 mins to go and i'm calling it over for the quarter

for you.

I couldnt find a 1Q line. where did you get yours from?

I have 1H over and game over to win a total of 200.

Nice, my local - tab.co.nz just put up a line o/u for each quarter which they dont normally do and only occasionally do it for live NBA games.

I loved this play as soon as I saw the line with how high scoring the first quarters have been

Was going to make it my biggest play of the year but put 5x on it instead.

Lets get this game over now

edit: how good was that wilkinson buzzer beater + the and1

**hawley** · 04-13-11, 02:35 AM

Originally posted by hawley

Has to be over or no play IMO

this is no a typical playoff battle with defense winning out, the Breakers play terrible defense and basically rely on outscoring their opponents, but also manage to commit a ton of fouls and allow plenty of points.

Hopefully the game is close enough down the stretch to see some late fouls as well.

We have not seen the best of Wilkinson this series, if the Wildcats manage to slow Penney down I wouldnt be surprised to see him score 20+

11 pts so far with Penney only scoring 3

**Gee** · 04-13-11, 04:26 AM

Nice, only caught the first half in the conference room. Cash all our bets!!!!

I've tries to stop unloading on plays. Max is 5x these days. I've realised recently that picking winners is tough enough- throw in trying to calculate your edge too and it's v hard. I definitely don't trust nbl enough to Kelly bet it!!

**MatI** · 04-14-11, 11:24 PM

Any thoughts on Sunday's game, TOWNSVILLE CROCODILES vs CAIRNS TAIPANS?

O/U is at 147.5

**binomial** · 04-16-11, 06:25 PM

under seems popular, found and played 149 under.

thinking about playing cairns +4.5. nothing much between the teams 4.5 seems a point or so too much.

**Bull_Shark** · 04-16-11, 09:52 PM

IMO no value in trying to the milk the 'under' again with this matchup. The bookmakers have adjusted (at last) and 148 or thereabouts is very low.

**binomial** · 04-16-11, 10:34 PM

they have only gone over this number once in 6 games this season. an adjustment would be 133.

**MatI** · 04-16-11, 10:40 PM

Last few match ups....

Season Series

Townsville Crocodiles defeated Cairns Taipans 79-70, October 16th 2010
Cairns Taipans defeated Townsville Crocodiles 56-51, December 18th 2010
Townsville Crocodiles defeated Cairns Taipans 81-74, February 13th 2011
Cairns Taipans defeated Townsville Crocodiles 80-64, April 1st 2011

Semi-Finals Series

Townsville Crocodiles defeated Cairns Taipans 76-73, April 8th 2011
Cairns Taipans defeated Townsville Crocodiles 74-57, April 9th 2011

**Bull_Shark** · 04-17-11, 02:50 AM

Originally posted by binomial

they have only gone over this number once in 6 games this season. an adjustment would be 133.

don't know where on earth you got that stat from but anyway, the result is there to see

and NO, 133 would not have been 'an adjustment', it would've been ridiculous bookmaking to ever set the number that low

**binomial** · 04-19-11, 06:41 PM

playing Cairns +7. Cairns have match ups for most NZ players but have an advantage in quickness with the guards as Penney and Henare will struggle to keep in front of Dillon and Ubake.

**WillC** · 04-20-11, 01:19 AM

Leaning under 167.5
Might make an in play wager on Cairns if NZ gets off to a flyer