AyLukeAys Aussie Horse Racing Thread.

[aussieH]

Good work. How is your staking plan worked out

[snufflyjoe]

...........

[aussieH]

Good pick up Tab also are offering 101. Very strange they have the same odds.

[aussieH]

Is that top 4 after finals or home and away

[snufflyjoe]

Is that top 4 after finals or home and away

EDIT: Sorry Lukeay for hijacking your thread mate I'll stop now

Hey Mate I deleted my post as I wasnt sure I understand the market and didn't want to lead anyone astray. TBH i know next to nothing about AFL! I checked with a mate who said the below. I saw a few books had the $101 for the top 4 and $41 to win the flag. My mate said that the to win the flag gives a good chance of hedging. I'm way too ignorant on the AFL do you know who the AFL sharps are about these parts? I would really like to hear their thoughts

"I've done some research on top 4 and while it most likely doesn't come in $101 is worth the bet here's why.

North Melbourne should win all 3 games handily (hardest game is Adelaide).

That gives them 56 points

Fremantle are currently on 52 but.

They have hawthorn this week (very hard game for them)
2nd game is easy so they should win this which puts them on 56. Brisbane lions

Last game........... PORT ADELAIDE!!

So that means that it could come down to the last game and you can hedge if NM have won by big and all 3 games.

Port Adelaide have

GC suns away (not as hard as when Gary isn't there).
Carlton (who knows what they'll show up.
Last game freo....

So really port should win those 2 but have died in the ass lately.

It's worth a go I'll probably throw $10 or $20 on it. Crazier shit has happen!"

[aylukeay]

All good w/ the hyjak i enjoy it, it is very unlikely North make top 4, but at $101 that goes with out saying. Cant see it really happening but at those odds you cannot go wrong with a small bet. especially with sound logic.


To Answer your question Aussie. Staking is second nature to me but is really hard to put down in words how I choose it. I have a sort of normalised standard range of the amount I generally bet per race. Around the $150 mark. Some races i bet to return a certain amount others I bet within this limit and then the size of staking per race the best answer is really "it depends" Sometimes I bet up to $250 a race some races as low as $50.

All has to do with the confidence in the race/the confidence in the competition/ the horses running style (e.g get back horse less confidence) The estimated fitness of the horse and its competitors.
For example the 1 bet yesterday i thought it was set to resume anywhere near last prep it would be a good thing against these horses. The only problem was since it was the first start for the prep only the Moody camp really knows how fit is it so there is some guesswork based on its last prep and the trial it had. If i had seen it have a start or 2 and then it came up against that same group of horses all others things being equal i would have cert increased my staking size.

Its also hard to put in words what im looking for when picking a winner, its self taught i had no one i know irl who is anygood at betting horses to seek advice from or bounce idea's off. I know what works for me and im still trying to get better but there are just so many variables that every race is unique.

[aylukeay]

Wed Outlay $950
Tawteen wins and returns $383.69
Yesterdays song wins and returns $305
Top Sight wins and returns $500

Return $1188.69 for a profit of +238.69


Thur Outlay $120
Brillaint bisc wins and returns $340.79

For a profit of +220.79


Midweek profit +459.58


Well it has been a good ride the last 2 weeks, since 2 saturdays back have managed to scrape a profit of +4982.38.
There is of course no way that winning % can continue, but hopefully we can manage to just chip away and keep making that circa 10% PoT.
Tomorrow is another tricky day just like Wed was with good horses resuming against medium horses who have a stronger fitness base means you can be very right or very wrong. Hopefully can keep my nose on the right side of the ledger. whatever happens gotta enjoy the ride

[aylukeay]

Eaglefarm.

Race1.
#10 Cut Up $30 @ 18.00
#11 Lily my Girl $20 @ 21.00

Race 2
#5 Sleep Tight $100 @ 3.00

Race3
#4 L'entrecote $130 @ 2.40
#1 Tail and All $20 @ 7.00
Race4
#1 Play it straight $50 @ 6.00
#6 Romanarma $100 @ 5.00




Caul


Race1
#2 Atlantis Dream $120 @ 2.50
#5 Spirit of Heaven $30 @ 4.00


Race2
#1 Bagman $150 @ 2.80

Race8
#1 Foreteller $40 @ 8.00
#5 Lidari $70 @ 5.50
#6 Zamorar $40 @ 10.00



Outay so far $450 flem and $450 efarm. rest coming in morning.

[aylukeay]

Romanaria scratched at eagle farm reinvesting that $100
Efarm.
Race 4
#1 Play it straight $50 @ 4.20
#2 Villamil $50 @ 6.00


Race5
#5 That's Pops $48 @ 3.20
#6 Explore the world $102 @ 5.50

Race6
#3 Markout $60 @ 7.00
#7 Samsiili $90 @ 5.00

Race7
#5 Harada Bay $150 @ 2.60

Race8
#14 Avaladyluck $50 @ 9.00
#8 Choose a saga $50 @ 9.00


Efam outlay 1k

[aylukeay]

Only bet at Morp will be over the jumps. which leaves only the 6 races at caul left for the day...

Race2
#4 Redevelop $114 @ 3.20
#3 King Triton $36 @ 4.00

[aylukeay]

Caul 3
#9 Digatilism $80 @ 6.00
#5 Good Value $20 @ 9.00

[aylukeay]

another scratching at efarm in race 3 lentrocote out going to reinvest some of that $130 refund


Race3
#1 Tall and All $80 @ 4.40


Efarm day outlay now down to $950

[aylukeay]

Caul race4
#9 Are there any $50 @ 4.40
#12 Charmed Harmony $100 @ 4.00 (tomw/lad)

[MustWinPlease]

tailing

[aylukeay]

Annnnddddd another scratching at eaglefarm. Race 7 Harada bay is out will reinvest that $150

Race7
#4 Burbero $150 @ 2.10


also adding to Race8
#14 Avaladyluck $25 @ 5.50
#8 Choose a saga $25 @ 5.00


efarm outlay back to $1k

[MustWinPlease]

Caul 3
#9 Digatilism $80 @ 6.00
#5 Good Value $20 @ 9.00

I LOVE YOU
too bad i only had a little stake on it

[aylukeay]

well efarm called off for the day so all about caul from her.

caul 5
#1 Moment of change $80 @ 4.20
#2 Pillar of Creation $20 @ 12.00

Caul 6
#10 Kalabek $30 @ 9.00
#3 Royal Snitzel $120 @ 2.70

[aylukeay]

Race7 Caul
#6 Nordic Empire $106 @ 3.80
#5 Jabali $44 @ 3.40


Only leaves race 9 to go

[aylukeay]

Caul rc9
#2 Greggers $180 @ 2.00

[aylukeay]

Adding
Caul 9
Greggers $40 @1.90

[snufflyjoe]

Went big on gregers thanks for the bankroll booster

[aussieH]

Bagman won so you at least broke even I am guessing

[aylukeay]

Will work out exact p/l for yesterday later, looks like it will be roughly +$220 ish. Was a strange day with Efarm being called off early and an interesting day at caul, was well up early but only got 1 winner from the last 5 races. 2x 2nds in photos could have made it a much more profitable day.

Only two races worth looking at Geelong today and in race 6 cannot find any value in a very open small field will watch the market and maybe bet in the last few minutes if at all.

[aylukeay]

So only one bet for Sunday.

Geelong Race7
#7 Wairoa $60 @ 6.00
#6 Kinesthetic $90 @ 4.60

[aylukeay]

So only one bet on sunday for one photo finish 2nd (-150)

Saturday-

Caul Outlay $1320
Spirit of heaven returned $138
good value returned $200
greggers 1st bet returned $360
bagman returned $390
greggers 2nd bet returned $76

for a loss of (-156)



Adelaide outlay.$150
King Trito wins and returns $194.40

for a profit of $44.40


Eagle Farm outlay after the day was called off after race 3 total outlay was $250

return of tall and all first bet returned $108
tall and all second bet returned $432

for a profit of $290


weekend profit +28.40


Tiny winning weekend, 3 photos all went the wrong way could have been anything. Annoying on sunday did form for 2 races and had 1 bet. the bet loses in a photo the selection in the other race where i did not pull the trigger salutes. #standard.
but even a tiny win is a win, onwards and upwards.

[aylukeay]

Sandown.

Race1
#3 Big Bear Rock $72 @ 6.00
#4 Hard Romp $48 @ 9.00


Race4
#8 Catherine Louise $125 @ 2.60
#5 Truffle $25 @ 6.00

Race6
#10 Paddys Gem $150 @ 3.00

Race 7
#8 Mahician $75 @ 4.40


Will add to race 7. Plus Races 2 and 5 to come in morning and maybe bets in race 3 and 8.

[aylukeay]

Race2
#2 Stich me up $80 @ 3.50

Race3
#18 Out of Grange $30 @ 10.00

Race 5
#3 Laconic Lad $30@ 8.50


Race8
#6 Nordic Duke $66 @ 6.00
#9 Kim Command $44 @ 8.00
#12 Bono Vox $40 @ 9.00



Outlay so far for the day $785 will probably add to race 5 and 7 during the day.

[snufflyjoe]

Thanks mate tailing

[aylukeay]

Race5
#1 contact $120 @ 3.10

Race7
#4 oltre finito $95 @ 5.00

[aylukeay]

Complete horror day. some horror rides and a picks that looked like they would run them down on the outside but cant get the job done. then we have horses on inside cue backmarkers running them down. placed in 4 races and 4th in another 2 for 0 winners for a complete strip.

Will do the replays again after i vomit.

[snufflyjoe]

Complete horror day. some horror rides and a picks that looked like they would run them down on the outside but cant get the job done. then we have horses on inside cue backmarkers running them down. placed in 4 races and 4th in another 2 for 0 winners for a complete strip.

Will do the replays again after i vomit.

LOL! chin up mate. It was bound to go pear shaped eventually

[aylukeay]

Mildura rc7
#2 tennessee lad $100 @ 3.60

#4 magic consol $100 @ 4.00

Think its down to a 3 horse race.

[aylukeay]

So i narrow it down to a 3 horse race and the danger wins with my picks coming 2nd and 3rd. eh. standard.

[aylukeay]

Doomben.

Race 1
#1 Lucky To $90 @ 3.60

Race2
#10 Gun Case $200 @ 1.75

Race3
#3 Lanieri $128 @ 2.50
#12 Grantly Miss $22 @ 126

Race4
#3 Hi Son $80 @ 3.60
#5 Volkhere $80 @ 4.20


Outlay so far $600

[aylukeay]

Morphetville.

Race 1 and 5 no bets.

Race 4
#1 Eclair Samba $200 @ 1.75

Race 7
#1 Riziz $200 @ 1.75


That's it for Ade, outlay $400.