AyLukeAys Aussie Horse Racing Thread.

[aylukeay]

Will be posting bets working with a $10,000 bank. so for those of you following at home, then obv bet more or less depending on your situation.

Average size of bets per race will be around $150

all bets unless stated otherwise will be on bet365 where you either get the best price of starting price, top tote or the fixed odds you locked in.
For meetings where you have to choose which two of the three totes you would like i will 100% of the time choose tatts, and the choice between stab and nsw will depend on where ever the race meeting is not. For example. If the race is in SYD then i will choose Stab/Tatts whilst if the race is country Vic i will choose NSW/Tatts

I only bet on three sports Cricket, AFL and horse racing. 12 months ago i would have told you that horse racing was my worst and I was still a newbie, but my results over the last 12 months show that Horse racing is clearly my best and the others are not even close tbh.

I focus 99% on Victorian racing but will of course venture outside the state for the feature meetings, the more I follow NSW racing the more I appreciate it.

[aylukeay]

Going to try and hit and run with one race at Syd...will Update bets in the morning after scratchings and will also be having a look at five major races across ade/bris in the morning. Remember these bets are based on a $10,000 bank roll and all placed on 365.


Hawkesbury
Race 6:
#4 Leebaz $200 @ 1.70




Caulfield- Will advise in morning regarding scratchings and post race8 after scratchings.

RACE 1
#3 Consorting $110 @ 4.00
#4 Hard stride $40 @ 7.50


Race2
#4 Mujadale $21 @ 9.50
#8 Tooleybuc kid $179 @ 2.25

Race 3
#2 River Delta $200 @ 2.40


Race4
#3 Pressing $100 @ 3.00
#6 Armada $50 @ 11.00


Race5
#4 Crucial $70 @ 4.50
#2 Bec Said no credit $80 @ 6.00


Race6
#5 Cosmic Causeway $16 @ 19.00
#11 Hannaford $24 @ 21.00
#8 Coronation Shallan $60 @ 7.00


Race7
#2 Freshwater Storm $70 @ 6.00
#9 Zuma Rock $20 @ 17.00
#10 Digitalism $60 @ 9.00


Race8 to be posted in morning.


Outlay so far.
$200 Hawkesbury
$1100 Caulfield.

[aylukeay]

Morphetville

Race6
#3 Classy Jack $24 @ 13.00
#4 The Quarterback $126 @ 3.00

Race7
#5 Alpha Beat $30 @ 5.00
#7 Tango's Daughter $120 @ 2.90

Race8
#4 Order of the sun $80 @ 5.00
#16 Scratchy bottom $70 @ 5.50




Gold Coast

RACE 5

#1 Platnium Rocker $66 @ 5.00
#16 Srikandi $84 @ 4.00


Race7
#10 Streema $38 @ 4.00
#6 Junoob $112 @ 3.20

Race8
#11 Costa Viva $100 @ 5.00


Caul Race8

#5 Synthetic $124 @ 3.25
#9 Pinstripe lane $26 @ 15.00


so total outlay for the day.
morp $450
hawks $200
GoldC $400
Caul $1250

[aylukeay]

From Caul Race8 #9 Pinstripe lane has been a late scratching going to reinvest that money into the same race. Obv will receive a refund from pinstripe lane so total outlay for the day is the same as the numbers above.

Caul Race8
#3 Carillo $26 @ 17.00

[Dr.Gonzo]

Goodluck with the thread, also turnover a lot on the horses myself but I focus on Sydney and carnivals.

[aylukeay]

Thanks mate. Please feel free to share when you really like something Really enjoyed the recent syd carnival and will be keeping an eye over that state for at least the short term. Getting to run on a dry track would help my turnover at syd though lol!!


So results for the weekend.
Sydney Outlay $200
Lebaz wins return $340

for a $140 profit.

Morp outlay $450
Alpha beat returned $204

for a loss of (-$246)

GoldC outlay $400
Srikandi returned $336
Streema returned $152

For a profit of $88

Caul Outlay $1250

Crucial returned $385
Pressing returned $294 (slight deduction from scr)
Tooleybuc kid returned $402.75

For a loss of (-168.25)


Total for the day is a loss of ($-186.25)

so a small losing day considering the outlay, not bad when you consider that scratchy bottom looked to have won the photo (jockey celebrated at the line and im still trying to work out how it lost) was worth about $350 to us so would have turned it into a win of a 170 or so.

[aylukeay]

Was up over $450 with 5 races left in the day and looked like it could be a really good one but then went 0/5 to make it a small losing day. so I guess it is what it is. cant win them all.

Pretty horrible day of racing at mornington tomorrow but might look at race8 depending on how the track is playing. Will def be betting on Wed at Sandown and really looking forward to Flemington on Saturday as it has been my most profitable track by far for the past 6 months.

[aylukeay]

Going to try and hit and run at the last at Mornington

Mornington Race 8 (nsw/tatts)
#8 Seguro $23 @ 6.50
#3 Emergency Ward $127 @ 2.50

[aylukeay]

Well betfair knew that one was dead before the race started. not good enough to beat betfairitus (-150) loss

[aylukeay]

Sandown.
No bets race 1 or 2. Other bets to be posted later.

Race3
#9 Native Land $60 @ 5.00
#2 Tips and Beers $40 @ 8.00

Race4
#6 Mokoro $40 @ 4.00
#1 Il Cavallo $110 @ 3.80


Race5
#1 The Minister $22 @ 15.00
#2 Johnnydrama $44 @ 7.50
#5 Kuaima $54 @ 6.50

[aylukeay]

Sandown cont.

Race6
#8 Penisula Dane $30 @ 11.00
#10 Klishina $120 @ 3.00


Race7
#1 Alrouz $40 @ 8.50
#4 Hero Master $80 @ 4.60

Race8
#3 Bachelor Royal $40 @ 8.00
#4 Paratte Pat $20 @ 17.00
#11 Red Corner $100 @ 4.00



Total outlay for the day $800.

[aylukeay]

Outlay $800

Native Land returned $330
Kuaima returned $351
Hero Master returned $368

Total Return $1049


Profit $249

[Dr.Gonzo]

Good job today.

I took 51 about Riziz in the Goodwood and 13 about Tiger Tees in the BTC Cup for the weekend group 1s. I'll back more runners but they're overs I wanted to lock in at the moment.

[aylukeay]

Top gets on both. $51
Should be a good day 2moro looking fwd to it, hopefullly we can get some good results to go our way!

[aylukeay]

Last weekend did a successful hit and run in Sydney and going to try our luck again. Remember all bets on 365 where you get the best of 3 totes/sp or the fixed odds at time of placement unless otherwise specified. One bet on a ladbrokes promo at Doom.

Sydney

Race6
#2 Im Imposing $150 @ 2.90



Doomben

Race4
#8 Eloping $60 @ 5.50

Doom Race5-nobet.

Race 6
#2 Pheidon $50 @ 4.50 (fixed-ladbrokes promotion)
#2 Pheidon $50 @ 3.70
#1 Vilanova $50 @ 11.00

Race7
#1 Buffering $190 @ 1.95


Morphetville

Race1
#1 Bull Pit $150 @ 2.30

Race2
#12 Kept Woman $20 @ 26.00

Race6
#4 Rythm to Spare $96 @ 3.70

Race7
#5 Unpretentious $50 @ 11.00
#7 Sistene Demon $40 @ 8.50
#13 Ready to Rip $10 @ 34.00
#20 Greggers $50 @ 11.00

Race8
#16 Miss Steele $84 @ 4.20



Outlay
Sydney-$150
Doomben-$400
Morphetville $500

[aylukeay]

Flemington - Will be betting through the afternoon at Flemington now that some rain has come over night dont want to have all bets confirmed before we know how the track might play in case of any bias, not betting race one but have confirmed bets for race 2. Playing it by ear after that. Will post either before race 2 is run or straight away after race 2 for race 3 and beyond.


Race1-nobet.

Race2
#6 Good Thinking $50 @ $6.50
#7 Baluch $40 @ 8.00

Race3
#1 Awasita $30 @ 11.00
#2 Scatcat $40 @ 8.00
#3 Miracle to Me $30 @ 13.00


Outlay so far $190

[aylukeay]

Awful start to the day.


Flemington Cont.

Race4
#2 Wish Come True $50 @ 5.50


Race5
#1 Written up $60 @ 6.00
#2 Gracious Prospect $50 @ 7.00

[aylukeay]

flem finished:

Race 6
#4 Lonhspresso $200 @ 2.00

Race 7
#7 Unchain my Heart $120 @ 3.50
#1 Shoream $80 @ 4.00

Race 8
#4 Henwood $70 @ 6.00
#9 Tried and tried $130 @ 3.65


Flem total outlay 950

[aylukeay]

done my ass today, couldnt pick a winner to safe my life. Great at picking horses to lose by a head though.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Thought Riziz was a sneaky chance in the straight, did a good job to hold on for the place.

[aylukeay]

Yep, did a very good job.
The more I think about it $40s + on Smoking Joey was a big price that I should have had something on, considering its spring form and Starting Price theory from the group1 in Perth...Did not play the race ideally. so much easier after the race is run. but still learning. and the best way to get better is to work out where we went wrong and improve from it i guess.
Wins at the end of the day got out of the hole somewhat but still a largeish losing day will work out exact figure 2moro.
Will def be betting in the latter half of the day at Sandown Sunday.

[aylukeay]

Sandown.

Race 5
#11 Kerthos $90 @ 4.00
#10 Soaked $30 @ 11.00


Race 6
#4 Bens Advice $34 @ 4.60
#11 Little Bubula $116 @ 3.00

[aylukeay]

Sandown cont.

adding to race5 posted above:
Race5
#11 Kerthos $20 @ 4.00
#10 Soaked $10 @ 11.00



Race7
#8 Star Impulse $50 @ 8.00
#10 Deeming $50 @ 7.00
#13 Road to Fatima $50 @ 7.50


Race8
#8 Wild Fire $62 @ 6.50
#10 Majestic Artie $58 @ 7.00
#18 Its a thrilla $30 @ 14.00


Outlay $600 for the day.

[aylukeay]

Results- Saturday


Sydney
Outlay $150. 1 race for 2nd. loss of (-150)

Doomben
outlay $400 no returns for loss of (-400)

Flemington
outlay $950.
Henwood wins and returns $420 for a loss of (-530)


Morp
outlay $500
Rhythm to spare wins and returns $355.20
Miss Steele wins @ $8.00 and returns $672

for a return of +527.20


Overall for the day (-552.80)

[aylukeay]

Sunday at Sandown. bit annoying day because in race 5 and 7 the ones i had pegged as the dangers and 'the next best' saluted in both, obv we cant back them all and have to fade some live chances but annoying when you are almost picking them correctly but losing money on said races. still backed 2 winners for a profitable day.

Outlay of $600
Little Bubulu wins and returns $348
Wild Fire wins and returns $465

for a win of $213



overall (-427.05)

[Dr.Gonzo]

Yep, did a very good job.
The more I think about it $40s + on Smoking Joey was a big price that I should have had something on, considering its spring form and Starting Price theory from the group1 in Perth...Did not play the race ideally. so much easier after the race is run. but still learning. and the best way to get better is to work out where we went wrong and improve from it i guess.
Wins at the end of the day got out of the hole somewhat but still a largeish losing day will work out exact figure 2moro.
Will def be betting in the latter half of the day at Sandown Sunday.

The SP from Perth is a bit of a myth as it was very easy late on Betfair, so much so that I wasn't surprised when it tailed off. Hadn't produced anything this prep that was better than OK but did come out of a race where you found two runners so I can understand why you might feel that.

I backed Famous Seamus last start and have a bit of an opinion of him so was dirty when he got up at big odds without having anything on him. Predicted rain didn't eventuate so the race looked less suitable for Tiger Tees than I had envisioned.

[aylukeay]

These are very good points. Def had not produced anything this prep. But I remember sitting in the grandstand getting kicked out of the last leg of the quaddie when Our Smoking Joey came from doing nothing to win flying home down the middle of the track - albeit in a G3 and in a first start for new stable at a similar price to Saturday. hard horse to get a hold off.

Almost nothing worse than being on a horse most of a prep and having an opinion of them to then not be on the start they win. same thing happened to me when Eloping won at sydney a few weeks back, leaves a bitter taste in the mouth for sure! must say in that race I was glad that spirit of boom didnt salute as I had been on him the last two starts but jumped off this time.


Will not be able to bet during the day tomorrow since I have started a new job so will be locking in odds tonight. Obv as the market winds out might get some better prices on some of the runners closer to start time for those that get the chance to shop around better than me, but if the horses to drift we will still get the best tote or sp and have the benefit of Undersgod, who is always much kinder than OVERSgod lol.

[aylukeay]

So have won the last two "mid week" fields at Sandown so hopefully that run continues, just need to improve the Saturday results.
Going wide in a few races and quite a few races have a lot of "non chances" imo so hopefully i have nailed it down to the best chances.


Race1-no bet.

Race2.
#1 King of Dudes $70 @ 5.50
#8 Zuhayr $70 @ 5.50

Race3-no bet.

Race4
#3 Darney Gub $74 @ 5.50
#4 Emira $116 @ 3.60

Race5
#6 Suite Success $70 @ 6.00
#10 Bridie O' Reilly $80 @ 5.00

Race6
#4 Live for Today $88 @ 4.60
#5 Lonrockstar $92 @ 4.20


Race7
#3 Esprit's Choice $60 @ 7.00
#4 Quicksilver lass $30 @ 13.00

Race8
#7 New York $25 @ 13.00
#9 Schuamarker $30 @ 10.00
#14 Stratumsphere $25 @ 15.00
#4 Eight Bells $20 @ 11.00


outlay $850

[aylukeay]

Have not seen replays yet so cannot comment on the races til i have done those but can confirm the results are not pretty without being a horrible day just needed one more Winner to try and get something out of the day.

Outlay $850.

returns-
stratumsphere $25.
Espirits Choice $60
Schuamacher (big deductions from last nights fixed odds) returns $217.20


total returns $302.20 for a loss of (-$547.80)

[aylukeay]

Trying to hit n run race 7 bendigo
#1 gallant harmony $120@3.60
# 4 written intent $80@5.5

[aylukeay]

Hopefully we can turn the luck around with a good Saturday. would be nice if the 'dangers' stopped winning every race lol. mixed results lately with 1 million form lines coming together from all over the country has not made it easy. but thats what makes this game the biggest/best mental challange. Betting on a lot more fav's early at caul than i would normally, but i guess it is what it is think the competition they are facing is very medium (at best)

Caulfield

race1-no bet.

Race2
#1 Griante $100 @ 3.40

Race3
#7 Onpicalo $150 @ 3.20

Race4
#1 Vain Queen $150 @ 2.60

Race5
#5 Hard Stride $64 @ 5.50
#1 Church hill Dancer $86 @ 4.20

Race6
#16 Lord of the Sky $200 @ 2.60

Race7
#6 Tear Gas $85 @ 5.00
#7 Word of Mouth $20 @ 15.00
#8 Lady Tatia $45 @ 8.00

Race8
#1 Corregio $44 @ 9.00
#8 Alrouz $32 @ 13.00
#14 Mightiest $24 @ 21.00


Outlay1k

[aylukeay]

Need to sleep now, will look at last race at Doom closely tomorrow morning, and potentially a couple of races at Scone.


Doomben.
Race1-no bet
Race2-nobet
Race3-nobet

Race4
#3 Srikandi $150 @ 2.40

Race5
#3 Hucklebuck $150 @ 2.80


Race6
#1 Arabian Gold $150 @ 2.50

Race7
#9 Floria $30 @ 34
#4 Azkar $90 @ 5.00
#3 Mr O'Ceirin $30 @ 10.00


Outlay$600

[Dr.Gonzo]

I took 7.5 about Aeronautical in the last at Scone, will also be backing Ichihara but didn't feel there was an advantage playing early on her, quite confident about this race.

[aylukeay]

I think that is a very good call. $7.50 great buy. but still looks quite a bit of value considering how much of the market barbed is taking up who has been hardly going, going to be following you in on that race for sure! good luck to us

[aylukeay]

Doom cont.

Race8
#1 Solzhenitysn $50 @ 12.00
#4 Dances on Stars $50 @ 6.50



Scone-
Rc.5 no bet

Race6
#1 Aerobatics $60 @ 6.00

Race7
#1 Chatauqua $144 @ 2.90
#13 Cosmic Endeavour $56 @ 3.70

Race8
#1 Aeronatical $100 @ 4.80
#4 Ichihara $100 @ 5.00


Doomben outlay $700
Scone outlay $460
Caul outlay $100
#allthebest