Bic's 2014 AFL Season Thread

[Bic]

AFL Round 4 Review

Game Total UNDER 171.5 @1.90 x1
Carlton -34.5 @1.91 x10
Port Adelaide -36.5 @1.91 x10
Geelong -20.5 @1.91 x2.5
Essendon +6.5 @1.91 x5
Sydney -15.5 @1.92 x1

Round 4 Units Risked: 29.5 units
Round 4 Units Returned: 23.875 units
Round 4 Profit/Loss: -5.625 units

2014 Season Bet %: 13 wins/15 losses @ 46.4%
2014 Season Total: +2.765 units

[Bic]

AFL Round 5

Brisbane vs Richmond

Richmond -20.5 @1.92 x3

Richmond under the pump come against a side missing far too many players... Now missing Leuenburger and Hanley, the Lions are in big trouble. I will give them some respect that they are a different side at the Gabba and Richmond have a poor record up north.

[Haydos]

Richmond -20.5 @1.92 x3

I like it. Tigers will be looking to bounce back, and the Lions will be weakened too much to make a good contest of it.
GL.

[Haydos]

I'm also looking at Freo -4.5 @1.92
Sydney haven't proven themselves against good opposition this year (only win was against a poor Adelaide outfit), while Freo should be back on track after the impressive Essendon win.
What do you think?

[Bic]

I'm also looking at Freo -4.5 @1.92
Sydney haven't proven themselves against good opposition this year (only win was against a poor Adelaide outfit), while Freo should be back on track after the impressive Essendon win.
What do you think?

I've had my eye on it. It does look a little too good, but Sydney at home with a head start isn't something to fade. Sydney are under the pump and desperate for a win. I might wait and see where this line is going, but I'm not too sure this is a line to touch. Freo gain Fyfe back, but Sydney have a BIG midfield... The under could be something I prefer here...

[therealdealau]

Love the Tigers play, Brisbane are so injury riddled - No Hanley/Rich really hurts their rebounding abilities.

[Bic]

Love the Tigers play, Brisbane are so injury riddled - No Hanley/Rich really hurts their rebounding abilities.

They are missing a lot of players... They continue to play Jono Brown, who is next to useless (playing ability wise). Just cannot see them winning.

[therealdealau]

They are missing a lot of players... They continue to play Jono Brown, who is next to useless (playing ability wise). Just cannot see them winning.

Agreed, I've been asking myself all week - how do the Lions score enough goals to compete? Especially with a (usually) effective offensive team like Richmond.

[MiddleMan]

I like Richmond to win over 39.5. But I can understand you "playing it safely". Often a team can kick a couple of junktime goals and the 50-point margin suddenly turns into a 38 point win.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Word of warning
Milestone game for Jonathan Brown - 250th
They might not win, but they may cover

[Bic]

Word of warning
Milestone game for Jonathan Brown - 250th
They might not win, but they may cover

Yes, I did take that into consideration. They just don't have the cattle. Most of these kids were still in primary school when Jono Brown played.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Yes, I did take that into consideration. They just don't have the cattle. Most of these kids were still in primary school when Jono Brown played.

Very close game

[Bic]

Very close game

Was for majority of the game, but those young kids really will struggle to run out 4 quarters in AFL level...

Aish, Taylor etc just died in the second half.

Was a great start to round 5. Will be capping all day tomorrow.

Have a great long weekend everyone!

[Bic]

Collingwood vs North Melbourne

Collingwood -2.5 @2.18 x1

You can get Collingwood at PK @1.92 but I liked the extra few coin here... Think Collingwood at the 'G are a good thing, and think they can win this by 2-3 goals. I think North at their best will really push the Pies and could even win the game however, so only playing the 1 unit here.

[Bic]

Sydney vs Fremantle

Total Game Score UNDER 168.5 @1.91 x1

[Bic]

Geez..7 goals in a half, to 14 goals in the 3rd term... The under looks like a loss at this stage. Totals are murdering everybody in the 3rd quarter recently. Bizarre.

Onto tonight:

West Coast vs Port Adelaide

West Coast ML @1.93 x1.5

Essendon vs St Kilda

Essendon -38.5 @1.91 x1.5

[Bic]

McGlynn misses for the under to hit! wow!!

[Bic]

Port gifted the worst "mark" ever. This better not be the difference

[Bic]

Melbourne vs Gold Coast

Gold Coast HT -8.5 @1.90 x1
Gold Coast -17.5 @1.93 x1

[therealdealau]

Good luck today mate, hope the Suns come out firing.

[Bic]

Hawthorn vs Geelong

Hawthorn WIN 1-39 @2.34 x2

[Bic]

AFL Round 5 Review

Richmond -20.5 @1.92 x3
Collingwood -2.5 @2.18 x1
Total Game UNDER 168.5 @1.91 x1
Essendon -38.5 @1.91 x1.5
West Coast ML @1.93 x1.5
Gold Coast HT -8.5 @1.90 x1
Gold Coast -17.5 @1.93 x1
Hawthorn WIN 1-39 @2.34 x2

Round 5 Units Risked: 12 units
Round 5 Units Returned: 11.75 units
Round 5 Profit/Loss: -0.25 units

2014 Season Bet %: 17 wins/19 losses @ 46.4%
2014 Season Total: +2.515 units

[Bic]

Big play for ANZAC Day St Kilda v Brisbane game up shortly.

[MustWinPlease]

Omg Freo vs North

Freo HT/FT is 1.63
easy money right there

[Bic]

AFL Round 6

St Kilda vs Brisbane

Total Game Score UNDER 169.5 @1.88 x7.5

This number will not last very long. This game will be played in New Zealand. The weather and conditions will be different to what these teams are used to in Australia. Weather Forecast says showers are an 80% chance with a max of 19 and low of 14. Wind of 48-57 km/h. I just cannot see Brisbane kicking a score anywhere near what this total is indicating. Same goes for St Kilda. The amount of kids that will be playing in this game will make it a dull affair. If the total gets anywhere near 150 I would be surprised.

[Bic]

Omg Freo vs North

Freo HT/FT is 1.63
easy money right there

I agree, I am just not a fan of the price there.

Freo are missing Ballantyne and Walters, two of the key players that have really hurt North in recent times.

I have a couple of plays on this game, I will post later, just going through the various markets to find the best.

[beeeej12]

AFL Round 6

St Kilda vs Brisbane

Total Game Score UNDER 169.5 @1.88 x7.5

This number will not last very long. This game will be played in New Zealand. The weather and conditions will be different to what these teams are used to in Australia. Weather Forecast says showers are an 80% chance with a max of 19 and low of 14. Wind of 48-57 km/h. I just cannot see Brisbane kicking a score anywhere near what this total is indicating. Same goes for St Kilda. The amount of kids that will be playing in this game will make it a dull affair. If the total gets anywhere near 150 I would be surprised.

Just curious where did you get your weather forecast? I can only occasional showers nothing about chance of rain

Good call on the under though! Has already dropped to 167.5 on sportsbet

[Bic]

Just curious where did you get your weather forecast? I can only occasional showers nothing about chance of rain

Good call on the under though! Has already dropped to 167.5 on sportsbet

http://www.weatherzone.co.nz/north-island/wellington

Good to see another Aussie around these forums!

[beeeej12]

http://www.weatherzone.co.nz/north-island/wellington

Good to see another Aussie around these forums!

Cheers!

Up until 2 or 3 days ago i didn't know there was a forum for AFL so starting this round i will be starting my own thread
Lets get some wins together

[Bic]

Collingwood vs Essendon

Collingwood -9.5 @2.00 x2
Travis Cloke to kick 3 goals or more AND Collingwood to win @3.00 x1
Dyson Heppell UNDER 26.5 Possessions @1.90 x1

St Kilda vs Brisbane

-Previously posted play-

Total Game Score UNDER 169.5 @1.88 x7.5

Fremantle vs North Melbourne

Game Total UNDER 167.5 @191 x1

One of my favorite days to punt on the footy! All promotions at Ladbrokes. Cloke promotion is capped at $100, which is my unit, so can only put that much on, but actually really like this. Heppell to cop the tag from Macaffer.

Everybody on the board is on the Pies. Good luck!

[beeeej12]

Interesting thought on Heppell copping the Macaffer tag, why do you think he wont tag Watson or Stanton before heppell?

[Bic]

Interesting thought on Heppell copping the Macaffer tag, why do you think he wont tag Watson or Stanton before heppell?

He's not big enough to take Watson. Stanton isn't as creative as Heppell and they tagged him in game 2 of last years home and away, and had success, smashing essendon in the process.

[beeeej12]

He's not big enough to take Watson. Stanton isn't as creative as Heppell and they tagged him in game 2 of last years home and away, and had success, smashing essendon in the process.

Good call, no arguements here definitely worth tailing you here

[Bic]

Mcaffer has gone to Watson after all. Very surprised with that move. Perhaps the thinking is that with all the runners coming in, restrict the options inside.

[Bic]

Heppell will get 40 touches with no opponent. Essendon with the same tactics as last Anzac Day. And will get beat again. You don't tag Jobe Watson....