Coopertrooper's 2014 AFL Thread

[Coopertrooper]

Play #1 - Hawthorn 4th Quarter Only +1.5, $1.87 X 1 unit (Sportsbet) LOSS

Play #2 - Western Bulldogs/Richmond Under 192.5, $1.88 X 1.5 units (Sportsbet) LOSS

Play #3 - Sydney -6.5, $1.91 X 1.5 units (Bet365) WIN

Play #4 - Port Adelaide -3.5, $1.92 X 3 units (Sportsbet) LOSS

Play #5 - Parlay: Total Odds $6.93 X 1 unit (Sportsbet) LOSS

-Western Bulldogs/Richmond Under 192.5, $1.88
-Sydney -7.5, $1.92
-Port Adelaide -3.5, $.192

Play #6 - Hawthorn +1.5, $2.10 X 1 unit (Centrebet) WIN

Play #7 - GWS first quarter lead 1-18, $2.10 X 1 unit (Bet365) WIN

Round 3: 3-4 -2.93 units

Tough round. The dogs winning goal killed the over, the hawks big start helped to cover the game line, but meant they switched off in the last quarter and port were well below their best against the roos, despite leading for large parts of the match and being run over (very unlike port) despite looking to have it covered. Frustrating that it happened on the biggest play of the year to date.

YTD: 19-14 +4.79 units

Will try and put some plays up soon, but I've been very busy and unable to look at the markets yet.

[Coopertrooper]

Round 4


Looking at a fairly quiet week for me - have not had a chance to look at the markets at all. I likely will be low on plays for the next month or so, but will still be putting a few through. I didn't see much value when I did look this week anyway.

Play #1 - Fremantle H2H, $2.00 X 1 unit (Centrebet/Sportingbet)


Think I'll be alone with this play, but the dockers are still clearly the second best team in my eyes. They may be missing a number of players, but they get to play the bombers at home, which is a huge advantage. Essendon have been playing an impressive brand of football, but I'm not sure they are up to the top 2 (Hawks and Freo), even when Fremantle are missing the quality that they are at the moment. $2.00 is juicy enough to have a nibble at, so playing for 1 unit.

[therealdealau]

Damn, love the confidence on the Dockers - wish I could be as confident as you are. The big loss last week however will be a determining factor in whether the Dockers can turn it around and play our usual fierce style. I hope we can do it for you!

[Coopertrooper]

Thanks mate. I think your boys will be pretty fired up at home after last week!

[OZnBa Fan]

I'm with u on this 1 coop, I quite fancy the dockers.. GL sir

[Bic]

Essendon midfield is too big. Fyfe/Barlow is a huge loss... Hocking tags Mundy. Don't see it happening! Best of luck though

[Gee]

Mate, did you or anyone else that is reading this thread get the openers this week? I was under the pump on Monday/Tuesday and missed them.

[MustWinPlease]

take collingwood line good odds should win tigers suck

[Coopertrooper]

Cheers guys.

Mate, did you or anyone else that is reading this thread get the openers this week? I was under the pump on Monday/Tuesday and missed them.

Not me I'm afraid, I've been swamped this week.

take collingwood line good odds should win tigers suck

I'm leaning Collingwood at -10.5, but I like a different play:

Play #2 - Collingwood 1st Quarter lead 1-18, $2.20 X 1.5 units (Bet365)

Play #3 - Richmond/Collingwood Under 172.5, $1.91 X 2 units (Bet365)

Play #4 - Western Bulldogs 1st Quarter lead 1-18, $2.30 1 unit (Bet365)

Play #5 - Western Bulldogs 1-39, $2.30 X 1 unit (Sportsbet)

Play #6 - Parlay: Total Odds $25.50 X 0.25 units (Bet365)

-Collingwood 1-18 1Q, $2.20
-Western Bulldogs 1-18 1Q, $2.30
-Hawthorn 1-18 1Q, $2.10
-Adelaide 1-18 1Q, $2.40

Not really confident on that many lines this week, but think that games will be quite tight and low-scoring, particularly early, so I am mostly going with the 1-18 margins at quarter time. To start with, I think the pies will be the better side tonight, but not by all that much - Witts in the side never leaves me feeling confident that the forwardline won't leak the ball out easily, however support in the ruck will be needed (and frees up Jesse White). Consistent rain over the past few days should keep things low-scoring, with a small amount of rain expected to come down before and during the game, making what already looked like being a low-scoring affair even lower scoring. So, I like the number being offered by Bet365 of 172.5 and will take the under, as well as Collingwood to nudge their way in front at quarter time, for 2 units and 1.5 units respectively.

I also think the bulldogs will do enough to get the job done against GWS. The dogs have been underrated in the past couple of weeks, while the public is getting on the GWS bandwagon, wanting to see them do well. However, they still lack the experience to run with the dogs here. I think they will come out playing some reasonable football and keep it tight, but not well enough to lead the dogs, hence the play at 1-18 for the bulldogs. I also think the dogs will hold onto any lead they get and will not succumb to any challenge from the giants.

Lastly, a small parlay. Not many are willing to take them at these odds, but I see great value. If my thoughts on the first 2 hold true, then the hawks and crows will be a big chance of pulling this one off. Hawthorn are playing the Gold Coast, who are playing some good football - you'd expect the hawks to be up early, but for the suns to stick with them. Meanwhile, the saints are playing better than most expected, while the crows have been very poor. They are the better side and should come out with some fire, but don't be surprised to see the saints dig in for the fight.

Will be busy for the rest of the weekend, so may not make any more plays and will likely update at the end of the round. Good luck all!

[benrama]

Value bet for tonight: Richmond / collingwood @ $6.50

[Coopertrooper]

Play #2 - Collingwood 1st Quarter lead 1-18, $2.20 X 1.5 units (Bet365) WIN

Play #3 - Richmond/Collingwood Under 172.5, $1.91 X 2 units (Bet365) LOSS

Had to come and post after that one. Had a terrible bad beat with a total earlier this year and now another absolute shocker. Went from being a big winning night to a losing one with scores almost doubling in the last quarter. Unbelievable.

Round 4: 1-1 -0.20 units

[MustWinPlease]

will carltom destroy melbourne?

[aussieH]

Unlucky on the over play last night. I actually had the over and was pissed I did not play the under in those conditions throughout the game.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #1 - Fremantle H2H, $2.00 X 1 unit (Centrebet/Sportingbet) WIN

Play #4 - Western Bulldogs 1st Quarter lead 1-18, $2.30 1 unit (Bet365) LOSS

Play #5 - Western Bulldogs 1-39, $2.30 X 1 unit (Sportsbet) WIN

Play #6 - Parlay: Total Odds $25.50 X 0.25 units (Bet365) LOSS

-Collingwood 1-18 1Q, $2.20
-Western Bulldogs 1-18 1Q, $2.30
-Hawthorn 1-18 1Q, $2.10
-Adelaide 1-18 1Q, $2.40

Round 4: 3-3 +0.85 units

Frustrating round. The shocking beat on the total starting things off, then the dogs started poorly which was the only leg of the parlay to miss. The dogs proved too good in the end, while the dockers smashed the bombers after losing a couple of key players on match day. The round at least ended in a profit.


YTD: 22-17 +5.64 units


I'll be adding an ROI figure when I get some time, but I've been super busy. I think it should be around 12-15% so far.

[Coopertrooper]

Round 5

Very late Monday lines:

Brisbane +21.5/Richmond -21.5
Collingwood -1.5/North Melbourne +1.5
Sydney +4.5/Fremantle -4.5
West Coast -1.5/Port Adelaide +1.5
Essendon -47.5/St Kilda +47.5
Adelaide -30.5/GWS +30.5
Melbourne +23.5/Gold Coast -23.5
Western Bulldogs -12.5/Carlton +12.5
Geelong +10.5/Hawthorn -10.5


Play #1 - Fremantle -4.5, $1.92 X 3 units (Sportsbet)

Play #2 - Port Adelaide H2H/ML, $2.00 X 1 unit (Sportsbet)

Play #3 - Parlay: Total Odds $14.16 X 0.5 units (Sportsbet)

-Richmond -21.5, $1.92
-Fremantle -4.5, $1.92
-Port Adelaide H2H, $2.00
-Carlton +12.5, $1.92



I'm flat out for time right now, so write-ups will have to come later in the week. I will say that I think Fremantle are being seriously underrated even with a weakened side, while Port are just being flat out underrated (despite the poor effort they showed in round 3, which was redeemed in round 4).

[hedgejob]

Why are Pies only -1.5? They had 2 days extra rest too.

[MiddleMan]

Maybe because North beat Collingwood last year and are in slightly better form with three straight wins.

[Coopertrooper]

Not sure about the last couple of years, but a 6 day break V an 8 day break was +EV backing the 6 day sides to win for the 3 years before then. The travel home will add in another factor with that short break, but their form looks good now, after their shocking start (the bombers formline looks pretty good) against the bombers.

However, I won't be betting against Collingwood this week.

Play #1 - Fremantle -4.5, $1.92 X 3 units (Sportsbet)

Play #2 - Port Adelaide H2H/ML, $2.00 X 1 unit (Sportsbet)

Play #3 - Parlay: Total Odds $14.16 X 0.5 units (Sportsbet)

-Richmond -21.5, $1.92
-Fremantle -4.5, $1.92
-Port Adelaide H2H, $2.00
-Carlton +12.5, $1.92

Fremantle come up against the swans... while the swans are at home, how did this sit at -4.5 (It has currently moved to -6.5 at most books, -5.5 is up at Luxbet)? The dockers are definitely below full strength at the moment, but have lost to only one side (clearly the best side in the comp) and are playing an out-of-sorts swans outfit that doesn't look like clicking in the short-term. Franklin isn't clicking, the midfield looks slow and key players are unable to have an impact. Why would this suddenly change, just because they face a dire situation of 1-4? The dockers are the major contender to challenge the hawks for the flag, so they aren't going to accept a 3-2 start. They have the better side on paper and the better form. This line was crazily low, I would have set it closer to 15.5, and would not be surprised to see it hit double figures (provided there are no massive team shocks).

Next up is port... who come in as underdogs? The power have played 1 poor game (a small loss to the roos, which is also looking like a favourable form reference) and were sluggish at times in 2 of their 3 wins, but have rebounded with hunger. Their form is good and they play the eagles, who also sit 3-1 - however, their run has been easy thus far. 3 wins against the dogs, dees and st kilda does not suggest much more than the eagles being a middle of the table side. They were dismantled last week by Geelong (who, despite doing little wrong, haven't been blistering in all of their games either) completely. They get to travel home to try and re-group, but there is a big question on their form. Taking port at even money ($2 is still available with some books) is too tempting to refuse, so playing 1 unit.

Lastly, the parlay bet. 2 of the legs have been explained above. I like the tigers here, and if I had had more time I would have likely made them a play too. The -21.5 locked in for the parlay is no longer available (-26.5 is now the line). Richmond are clearly better than the lions, who are losing players to injury after losing players to trades over the off-season. With brown appearing to struggle on his last legs, the lions are ripe for the picking. This type of match-up comes at the perfect time for the tigers, who desperately need a good win. this could get ugly. The last leg is on the blues at +12.5, which has trimmed slightly to 11.5. The blues form is horrid, with little going right. However, they are likely to bring some key players back in (Waite and Garlett should play). The dogs have rebounded strongly from a heavy round 1 defeat, but this match-up screams of being a let-down spot for the dogs to me. Their defensive style has not been all that effective thus far (conceding 83 in a low scoring game, 98 and 83 to GWS in their past 3 games), and their leaders have had to bring them from behind to win games. I don't think Carlton will let one go, but an extra 2 goals insurance at $1.92 looks to be the play.

[aussieH]

Like the under in the tigers v lions game. Lions will struggle to score and both teams on a six day back up


agree with the port Adelaide pick as well.

[hedgejob]

A very high total for 2 underish teams is a giveaway imo.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #1 - Fremantle -4.5, $1.92 X 3 units (Sportsbet) LOSS

Play #2 - Port Adelaide H2H/ML, $2.00 X 1 unit (Sportsbet) WIN

Play #3 - Parlay: Total Odds $14.16 X 0.5 units (Sportsbet) LOSS

-Richmond -21.5, $1.92
-Fremantle -4.5, $1.92
-Port Adelaide H2H, $2.00
-Carlton +12.5, $1.92

Round 5: 1-2 -2.5 units

Tough round, with Fremantle not showing up until it was too late. Another big play goes down, not having much luck with them this year. Hopefully Fremantle will only cost us the 3 units and not be the only leg of the parlay to fail. Getting sick of getting 3/4 legs very quickly.

[Coopertrooper]

Sure enough, Fremantle were the only leg to miss. Near on being a 13 unit turnaround if they cover, damn.

YTD: 23-19 +3.14 units

[Coopertrooper]

Round 6

I am going to struggle to get any early lines up for a while now. With the extended round for easter and early games for ANZAC day, there isn't much point now anyway.

Play #1 - West Coast -5.5, $1.91 x 3 units (Centrebet/Sportingbet)

Play #2 - Port Adelaide 1-39, $2.70 x 1 unit (Sportsbet)

Play #3 - Parlay: Total Odds $5.18 x 0.5 units (Sportsbet)

-West Coast -6.5, $1.92
-Port Adelaide 1-39, $2.70

Hoping luck turns around this week and the first 3 unit play can hit. West Coast pushed port at home, who are a very good side. While they have to travel to Melbourne for this game (and lose Glass to suspension), they come with much better form than the blues, who won their first match against fellow straggler the dogs. Carlton lose Judd and Curnow (Bell is said to be injured too) and simply look a much weaker side, so I'm surprised the line is this low. Unlike the dockers last week, the West Coast should not fail us here, not against such poor opposition.

The other match is port hosting the cats. While undefeated, history says the cats will be fatigued from another epic battle with the hawks. Port managed to get a good grinding win out in the west, where they were able to outlast their opponents. Back at home, where they are playing some good football, port should be very competitive. The cats are not going to roll-over, so I see very good value in the 1-39 margin, with port playing good football. Much of my fortunes this year will lie with the power standing up in these types of games, but as with the season bet for them to make the top 4, I expect them to be doing so!

[beeeej12]

Round 6

I am going to struggle to get any early lines up for a while now. With the extended round for easter and early games for ANZAC day, there isn't much point now anyway.

Play #1 - West Coast -5.5, $1.91 x 3 units (Centrebet/Sportingbet)

Play #2 - Port Adelaide 1-39, $2.70 x 1 unit (Sportsbet)

Play #3 - Parlay: Total Odds $5.18 x 0.5 units (Sportsbet)

-West Coast -6.5, $1.92
-Port Adelaide 1-39, $2.70

Hoping luck turns around this week and the first 3 unit play can hit. West Coast pushed port at home, who are a very good side. While they have to travel to Melbourne for this game (and lose Glass to suspension), they come with much better form than the blues, who won their first match against fellow straggler the dogs. Carlton lose Judd and Curnow (Bell is said to be injured too) and simply look a much weaker side, so I'm surprised the line is this low. Unlike the dockers last week, the West Coast should not fail us here, not against such poor opposition.

The other match is port hosting the cats. While undefeated, history says the cats will be fatigued from another epic battle with the hawks. Port managed to get a good grinding win out in the west, where they were able to outlast their opponents. Back at home, where they are playing some good football, port should be very competitive. The cats are not going to roll-over, so I see very good value in the 1-39 margin, with port playing good football. Much of my fortunes this year will lie with the power standing up in these types of games, but as with the season bet for them to make the top 4, I expect them to be doing so!

Pretty sure port played away last week??
Bell won't play either he is having surgery on his hand. Having said that west coast's tall forwards will be too much for our small and poor back line.

I do like the port pick and considering the cats are only going to have a 6 day break compared to ports 8. Port should be too fresh for the cats

[Coopertrooper]

The 'at home' refers to West Coast, but I can see how it looks fairly ambiguous.

I heard the confirmation about Bell, had only heard a suggestion of it last night, it seemed like he wouldn't play with it surgery or not. It looks like it will be pretty tough to stop Kennedy, Darling and co, I'm surprised the line is looking solid at -5.5 now (although Bet365 have the line at -7.5).

[beeeej12]

Oh yeah gotcha!

Westhoff and Schulz kicked 7.1 between them in Round 1
Vickery kicked 4 goals in Round 2
Chapman, Winderlich and Hardingham kicked 11 goals between them in round 3
Dawes and Frawley although only kicked 4 between them smashed our defenders around the ground

I don't want to even think about what Kennedy and Darling will do to us i am just glad that Lecras isn't playing

[Bic]

I understand and can see the reasons as to why West Coast are favorites and the reasons as to why they should beat the Blues, but West Coast are poor at Etihad Stadium. There midfield is very slow, and that is where Carlton will look to exploit them. Carlton play against the Eagles very well and have a good record against them. Expect to see Garlett return this week to add to the pace of the Carlton team. I think the game will be won and lost in the middle. Carlton need to dominate clearances, and when not, really need to execute on the counter/turnover. Think this is a lot closer than people think.

In saying all this, it wouldn't surprise me to see Eagles win by a lot

Glass out is huge. Carlton need Jamison back if they are going to win though I reckon.

[therealdealau]

Love Port in this spot, I love the style of football they play and aside from the Dockers I am always watching their games and cheering for them (unless ofcourse I've wagered against them which I don't plan on doing for awhile).

[Coopertrooper]

Seems to be plenty of mixed opinions on the blues and eagles. No doubt that is what keeping the line so solid.

Port's football is definitely exciting to watch, they play with a lot of flair at their best.

---

Been looking around at the ANZAC Day specials available. I am not confident in any prediction on the match, however there are some promotions giving a free shot at some profits:

Play #4A - Collingwood H2H, $2.00 X 1 unit (Sportingbet)
Play #4B - Essendon H2H, $2.20 X 1 unit (Sportsbet)

Both specials allow up to $100 bets, so betting up to the limit here. First, the $2 on offer from Sportingbet is very generous. It allows us free shot at 0.2 units of profit by betting the same amount on the bombers. Additionally, the bet at Sportsbet has it's own promo - If any player kicks 4+ goals, losing bets on the match result are refunded (up to $100). So, if someone kicks 4+ and the bombers lose, the total profit from this match jumps to 1 unit. It is a free shot so may as well take it up!

[Bic]

Very nice.

I would love to be on this, but I have literally been cut off at Sportingbet

[Coopertrooper]

That sucks Bic. I didn't even have an account there all that long ago, just had one with Centrebet, but their specials like this one can be pretty good.

[hedgejob]

I'm on Carlton big. Malthouse has had the wood over his old WC for years. Last time they beat one of his sides was Collingwood in R2 2007. Plus WC played a tough game against Port mostly without a sub and their forwards frankly can't kick.

[Coopertrooper]

Hedgejob, I started to question what Mick really brought to the coaching table since his last year at Collingwood. Carlton are a very different side, I'm not sure if he can extract enough of his previous advantages. West Coast's results last year were horrible, I personally am not reading all that much from that formline.

Play #4A - Collingwood H2H, $2.00 X 1 unit (Sportingbet) WIN
Play #4B - Essendon H2H, $2.20 X 1 unit (Sportsbet)

Swan kicks 4, so money back at sportsbet, leaving a 1 unit profit from the match.

Round 6: 1-0 +1 unit

Looks like the Carlton/WCE game is pretty solid at around -3.5. Missed some value with the 3 unit play, but hopefully it won't matter!

[Coopertrooper]

Play #1 - West Coast -5.5, $1.91 x 3 units (Centrebet/Sportingbet) LOSS


Play #3 - Parlay: Total Odds $5.18 x 0.5 units (Sportsbet) LOSS

-West Coast -6.5, $1.92
-Port Adelaide 1-39, $2.70

Round 6: 1-2 -2.5 units

Geez, feel like I've been on the end of every bad beat this year. No idea how this didn't cover when the eagles had a 4 goal lead with more than half of the final quarter played. West Coast still scored 4 more times after then too, finishing with 7 more scoring shots. Unreal...

[MustWinPlease]

Had a lot riding on west coast too

hat last qtr killed me