Coopertrooper's 2014 AFL Thread

[Coopertrooper]

I think Richmond will take this game, I like Richmond early as well - love the plays. Some great discussion in here. I am in agreement with most of the things said however one game sticks out as danger signs to me and thats the Freo/Gold Coast match. Obviously I am a huge Dockers supporter however I try to take bias out of my analysis, I really feel like the Dockers have cemented their defensive strategy and plan since Lyons arrival, it is almost second nature now for the core players to move and position themselves into the defensive scheme as well as play extremely hard and tackle ferociously. Criticized about the lack of offense I believe that is what the Dockers have been paying more attention to this preseason, I think they are looking to make a point that they can now score effectively and quickly and also take some risks. I fear that the Suns might be victim number 2 to a huge Docker surge on the scoreboard, I am extremely interested to see how the youngsters matchup away from home against the defensive pressure of Freo. Turnovers need to be at a bare minimum, either way I'll be looking forward to watching the best player of all time - always a treat to watch Gary in the flesh (doesnt come to Perth often).

Completely understand why you would take that view - The dockers were a few classes above Collingwood all around the ground, I was impressed even in the first quarter when we had dominated the clearances. When things aren't going the dockers way they can really limit the damage and then inflict it back the next quarter with interest.

I do feel though that the 40+ range is still tricky to get to. The suns have a core group of stars together now and won't get blown away in many games. Fremantle are one of the few sides who will be capable, but I'm happy to take it on. I particularly expect the dockers to be about 4 goals up at half time and for the suns to keep it at about that range. They are still learning in many areas, so a fighting loss can still do so much for their development. We shall see anyhow!

[Coopertrooper]

Play #12 - Richmond Quarter Time -2.5, $1.90 X 1 unit (Bet365) WON

Play #13 - Richmond Half Time -5.5, $1.95 X 1.5 units (Bet365) WON

Round 2: 2-0 +2.32 units

Tigers dominated the first quarter and early in the second, didn't have to sweat anything out, great way to start round 2!

[hedgejob]

Holy smokes Richmond... what a way to cover!

[Coopertrooper]

Holy smokes Richmond... what a way to cover!

Everyone on the tigers line would be pretty happy with that! You'd be filthy on the other side though. Amazing last half, ended up being a choke-a-thon!

Play #1 - Richmond H2H (ML), $1.68 x 1 unit WIN

Round 2: 3-0 +3.00 units

Thought this was gone halfway through the last quarter (Would have got money back with the special), but Carlton threw it away. 10 plays pending for the weekend, so plenty of work still to be done, but a nice buffer to start with.

[hedgejob]

I would have been very filthy if Richmond didn't cover. They stopped playing their running game after HT.

[Coopertrooper]

Have to count your lucky stars with that one hedgejob! What a way to cash it at the end!

Play #14 - Hawthorn 4th Quarter Only -3.5, $1.87 x 1 unit (Sportsbet)

I know this seems like an odd play - betting on only the last quarter result. By the time I'd looked at it, the value was already reduced, while elsewhere has -4.5. However, the hawks are a strong and fit side, up against a bombers side which could be pumped up for a while. As we saw last week, the hawks are very good at finishing off a match, and if the bombers are close or leading at 3/4 time, you know this bet is a big chance. If the hawks kick well ahead, this still has a big chance. I'm making it a play for 1 unit.

[OZnBa Fan]

Have to count your lucky stars with that one hedgejob! What a way to cash it at the end!

Play #14 - Hawthorn 4th Quarter Only -3.5, $1.87 x 1 unit (Sportsbet)

I know this seems like an odd play - betting on only the last quarter result. By the time I'd looked at it, the value was already reduced, while elsewhere has -4.5. However, the hawks are a strong and fit side, up against a bombers side which could be pumped up for a while. As we saw last week, the hawks are very good at finishing off a match, and if the bombers are close or leading at 3/4 time, you know this bet is a big chance. If the hawks kick well ahead, this still has a big chance. I'm making it a play for 1 unit.

Nice start to the round for you sir

[Coopertrooper]

Nice start to the round for you sir

Thanks mate, just hope I can keep it growing for the rest of the round!

Play #2 - Hawthorn H2H, $1.41 X 1 unit WON

Play #14 - Hawthorn 4th Quarter Only -3.5, $1.87 x 1 unit (Sportsbet) WON

Round 2: 5-0 +4.28 units

Hawks took until the last minute to get these plays up, they really had to pull everything out to get over the bombers in the end. Wasn't too surprised to see a good fight from the bombers and was happy they were leading at 3/4 time. Will be great (and somewhat strange) to have 4 games in a day tomorrow!


-----------------------------------------


Still have 9 plays pending:


Play #3 - St Kilda H2H, $2.00 X 1 unit *This has a money back special

Play #4 - Port Adelaide H2H, $1.70 X 1 unit *This has a money back special

Play #5 - North Melbourne H2H, $1.42 X 1 unit *This has a money back special

Play #6 - Port Adelaide -5.5, $1.92 X 2.5 units (Sportsbet)

Play #7 - Fremantle 1-39, $2.45 X 1 unit (Sportsbet)

Play #8 - West Coast 1-39, $2.55 x 1 unit (Sportsbet)

Play #9 - Parlay: Total Odds $6.25 X 0.5 units (Sportsbet)

-Fremantle 1-39, $2.45
-West coast 1-39, $2.55

Play #10 - Parlay: Total Odds $12.00 X 0.5 units (Sportsbet)

-Fremantle 1-39, $2.45
-West Coast 1-39, $2.55
-Port Adelaide -5.5, $1.92

Play #11 - North Melbourne First Quarter -4.5, $1.90 X 1.5 units (Sportsbet)

[MustWinPlease]

Why did you pick st kilda? dont fancy GWS?

[Coopertrooper]

Why did you pick st kilda? dont fancy GWS?

I mentioned it briefly with the bet, but the saints still have some strong bodies who can help them get on top in the middle. I think the giants are in for a bit of a let down. The money back special is what allowed me to have confidence in putting the bet on, and with GWS having some key outs the price has come in a fair way.

There was an overreaction before last week with the saints being backed for the spoon, but they still have more experience than the giants, who still need to find more consistency out of some of their senior players. It will be interesting to see how they go.

[hedgejob]

Port game total is 192.5, that's a lot of points for a ground that hasn't been played on before.

[Coopertrooper]

Port game total is 192.5, that's a lot of points for a ground that hasn't been played on before.

All I've heard is that it is a very skinny ground, so they expect some high scores there.

[MustWinPlease]

I hope port win, a lot of value there especially with the money back special but wouldnt surprise me if adelaide won, they were very good last week

[hedgejob]

No overs yet this round

[Coopertrooper]

I hope port win, a lot of value there especially with the money back special but wouldnt surprise me if adelaide won, they were very good last week

I'm still not a big wrap on the crows, but these showdowns can be funny. This port side has come on in leaps and bounds though.

Play #3 - St Kilda H2H, $2.00 X 1 unit WIN

Round 2: 6-0 +5.28 units

Saints made to work for it, but on the back of a dominant display by Nick Riewoldt (He's been a champion and his longevity has been surprising and admirable) they were just a bit too strong.

Next up is the big play on the power, hoping they can keep the ball rolling!

[MustWinPlease]

no collingwood play?

[Coopertrooper]

no collingwood play?

No, not for me. I can't trust our defence, but our record at the ground is fantastic. Our side is weakened, but the swans look wounded, how will they respond? I can't say. I don't think we'll win but not sure if we will cover. I just can't touch this one.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #4 - Port Adelaide H2H, $1.70 X 1 unit WIN
Play #6 - Port Adelaide -5.5, $1.92 X 2.5 units (Sportsbet) WIN

Round 2: 8-0 +8.28 units

Big play hits, port far too good for the crows, won by nearly 10 goals

[johno35]

Having a great round mate, keep it up

[Coopertrooper]

Thanks mate, you too!

Play #7 - Fremantle 1-39, $2.45 X 1 unit (Sportsbet) LOSS

Play #9 - Parlay: Total Odds $6.25 X 0.5 units (Sportsbet) LOSS

-Fremantle 1-39, $2.45
-West coast 1-39, $2.55

Play #10 - Parlay: Total Odds $12.00 X 0.5 units LOSS

-Fremantle 1-39, $2.45
-West Coast 1-39, $2.55
-Port Adelaide -5.5, $1.92

Round 2: 8-3 +6.28 units

The dockers were a bit too good, stretching it to 48 points after being 25 up at 3/4 time in a low-scoring game. Disappointing that the suns got run over at the end.

[therealdealau]

Great round so far, thought the wet weather would favour you heavily but the Suns just got ran out at the end. Was a great game to watch though except for being drenched.

[Coopertrooper]

Great round so far, thought the wet weather would favour you heavily but the Suns just got ran out at the end. Was a great game to watch though except for being drenched.

I was surprised too. Ablett having a quiet game didn't help my cause either on that one.

Play #5 - North Melbourne H2H, $1.42 X 1 unit (Sportsbet) WIN

Play #8 - West Coast 1-39, $2.55 x 1 unit (Sportsbet) LOSS

Play #11 - North Melbourne First Quarter -4.5, $1.90 X 1.5 units (sportsbet) WIN

North got off to a good start (albeit low-scoring), holding the dogs goalless and then being far too strong late in the game. West Coast smashed Melbourne, who were as insipid as I have ever seen. Improvement was never going to mean more wins, but like the nerdy kid at a bar they just couldn't score.

Round 2: 10-4 +7.05 units

Massive round! Plenty of profits to move forward with now, so can really have a go at a number of plays for the next few rounds!


YTD: 16-10 +7.72 units

I'll be tracking ROI after another round or 2, once the sample size is lager and the figure starts to take on more meaning.

[Coopertrooper]

Round 3

And so the attention shifts to the next round of games. Grabbing these lines from sportsbet at 3.30pm, as I've been busy this morning:

Hawthorn +5.5 / Fremantle -5.5
Western Bulldogs +19.5 / Richmond -19.5
Adelaide +7.5 / Sydney -7.5
Gold Coast -7.5 / Brisbane +7.5
West Coast -67.5 / St Kilda +67.5
Collingwood +7.5 / Geelong -7.5
GWS -20.5 / Melbourne +20.5
North Melbourne +3.5 / Port Adelaide -3.5
Essendon -14.5 / Carlton +14.5

There are again some nice early plays:

Play #1 - Hawthorn 4th Quarter Only +1.5, $1.87 X 1 unit (Sportsbet)

Play #2 - Western Bulldogs/Richmond Under 192.5, $1.88 X 1.5 units (Sportsbet)

Play #3 - Sydney -6.5, $1.91 X 1.5 units (Bet365)

Play #4 - Port Adelaide -3.5, $1.92 X 3 units (Sportsbet)

Play #5 - Parlay: Total Odds $6.93 X 1 unit (Sportsbet)

-Western Bulldogs/Richmond Under 192.5, $1.88
-Sydney -7.5, $1.92
-Port Adelaide -3.5, $.192

Hawthorn come up against Fremantle in a Grand Final re-match and likely preview for this year's Grand Final too. Similar to the play last round, the hawks are a great finishing team, who will be up against it all day against the dockers. This time, the hawks get a slight head-start, which I think makes this a viable play this week - they are a champion side who knows how to finish games off. Fairly simple play again here, 1 unit.

Next, the dogs and tigers clash at Etihad, which again gives us a high total to work with - sportsbet have put up 192.5. The dogs, despite 2 fairly sizeable losses, have shown their defensive-focus for the year - against the eagles for 3 very tight quarters and another tight game against the roos, which kept them in the match until the last 5-10 minutes. The tigers have shown that while they are at times potent, their forwardline is still largely disfunctional. The dogs still struggle to attack themselves, having scored more than only Melbourne in the first 2 rounds. This one just stinks of a being another low-scoring game, so I love this total, playing it for 1.5 units.

The swans, after a horrible start to the season, come up against the win-less crows. The crows look hapless, struggling to be competitive in last quarters, allowing both Geelong and Port to run away easily. The swans are a side who don't typically have big quarters, but rather play consistent football. For whatever reason, they were asleep against the giants and were overrun by an under-manned pies outfit. However, the pies are not a hopeless team, and the swans did lead for more than half the match. Both sides have serious concerns over their forwardlines and fitness/discipline issues in the middle. So, they appear to come in fairly evenly - why are the swans my play here giving away a start? The swans have a lot more improvement in them from what I have seen, while the crows simply had no answers, despite winning plenty of the ball (+6 disposal against the cats, -7 against port). While sydney had similar numbers overall, with a -28 against GWS and +19 against the magpies, the swans were solid for 2 1/2 quarters but just did not run the match out as well, so they still won the disposal count from their earlier display. The swans strike me as being the better quality side and should not be run down as easily. So, 1.5 units on here too.

Yet again port have been shown little respect by the books, this week being just -3.5 against the roos. While the roos do get to play this game at Etihad, port have shown the strength of their side twice, while the roos were far from convincing in either game. I'm sticking with port to keep rolling on, and I find this number just insane. Jumping on for my biggest play of the year thus far, 3 units.

I'm also putting a whole unit onto a parlay. The under and port -3.5 look like a nice multiple-builder, while I'm chucking the swans in too for a nice return. I know parlays are unpopular amongst more successful cappers, however I personally think they can provide great value for anyone who can put together a reasonable strike-rate. They were profitable last year and I am backing myself to have another good round, so that is why I am risking a full unit.

[OZnBa Fan]

Great stuff champ

[Coopertrooper]

Great stuff champ

Thanks mate.

I'm adding 1 more play for tonight, found an interesting number is still being offered:

Play #6 - Hawthorn +1.5, $2.10 X 1 unit (Centrebet)

With 2 dockers likely to be suspended after this afternoon's MRP findings, I was keen to back the hawks to win this match. I looked around to see the best head to head odds and this line caught my eye. I think Centrebet have been lazy and not adjusted this line (it should be -0.5 or -1.5 at $2.10), so getting a point in and at better odds than betting the hawks H2H anywhere else is very good value. Not going to go overboard, but will happily take the value and bet 1 unit here.

[MiddleMan]

Good bet, mate. I really like the Hawks too.

[johno35]

Hopefully Hodge and Mitchell are fit, I like Hawks here too

[MiddleMan]

Hodge won't be fit. Mitchell will be.

Sewell will come in.

[johno35]

Sewell is a big in, Dockers have a hard time shutting down the Hawks, liking it more with Sewell in

[Coopertrooper]

Barlow being added to the outs is huge. It has changed the market drastically too, with the hawks now at about -4.5 and probably going to go further at this rate.

Potential to go for a middle with no risk with the early bet, but I'm happy just to keep the value - 2 or 3 point middles are tough to get in AFL. Same goes with the last quarter line too, but am also happy to keep that play.

[therealdealau]

Good luck this week Cooper!

[Coopertrooper]

Thanks mate, same to you.


With a line of 8.5 tonight, the ability to go for a middle is now starting to look tempting, but I think I'll hold my fire here.

The swans line has come in, seemingly because the public rates the exclusion of Sam Reid as a big loss. I think the value against a weak crows team here is fantastic. Can't understand why the power are -0.0 now though, am I missing some team news (I've been out today)? They had money coming for them, but now a dramatic swing against. No idea how the roos can be close to becoming favourites for this one.

[aylukeay]

A well followed service must have tipped North is the only explanation i can think of

so weird.

[therealdealau]

Thanks mate, same to you.


With a line of 8.5 tonight, the ability to go for a middle is now starting to look tempting, but I think I'll hold my fire here.

The swans line has come in, seemingly because the public rates the exclusion of Sam Reid as a big loss. I think the value against a weak crows team here is fantastic. Can't understand why the power are -0.0 now though, am I missing some team news (I've been out today)? They had money coming for them, but now a dramatic swing against. No idea how the roos can be close to becoming favourites for this one.

Personally I think Sam Reid being omitted is a bonus for Sydney, they no longer have to try and juggle their big forwards and Buddy can do what he does best.

[Coopertrooper]

Busy weekend for me so I'll post an update at the end of the round. Just posting one more play for the weekend.

Play #7 - GWS first quarter lead 1-18, $2.10 X 1 unit (Bet365)

The giants start a match at the shortest odds they have ever been, against a weak dees side. I think both sides know that this is one of their best remaining chances for a win this year, so they'll play fairly tight football early. I'm expecting GWS to have the forward power to out score the dees, without getting well ahead, so playing this for 1 unit.