Great stuff mate.. love the write ups, all have great reasoning. what are your thoughts on totals early on in the season? As we have seen in previous years totals have flown over but with a lot of teams looking to handball more then ever I believe we may see more games going under. Thoughts?
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Thanks mate.
I still think there will be a few high scoring games early, particularly with a side like Hawthorn who looks dominant heading into round 1. Not sure how many teams will seriously change their kick to handball ratio, but think there will only be a handful at the most, so I don't see it changing totals all that much early on (a team like Melbourne being one of the handful who will have a radical change, with Collingwood also potentially brining it in to the season proper, but we will have to wait and see whether that was purely experimental over the pre-season). The interchange cap also looks like only having a minor influence on the number of rotations. How that will affect last quarter scoring is hard to say - many defenders already play a large percentage of game time, so they may still hold their defences together, while midfielders get less of a last quarter break, but there is also a train of thought that a large portion of a team may fatigue and open the scoring floodgates. There is probably going to be a drop from the overall trend of scores on average, and I expect it to be on 2-3 games per week, with the rest showing similar scores as the first month of games last year did.
Also, I forgot to mention in my post about Sportsbets money back special on Head to head (ML) bets. I've now updated that into the post (I will keep a record for bonuses/specials which is separate from my overall record. So, if Port lose but the money back special gets up, I will record it as a loss in my overall record, but add $100 to my bonuses/specials record. Last year I just wrote them off as losses in my record).Comment -
Yep I agree sides like Hawthorn will still be very offensive, a side that didn't impress me to much in the pre season was North they didn't look to have improved to much defensively as the conceded over 100 in both Nab challenge games..
I love the freo pies game over especially at the dome. Anyway good luck on the season champ!!Comment -
Pies injuries have caused a drift. Still won't be betting the line on this match, but -8.5 on freo will tempt a few. There could be some late changes for the pies though, I don't think Witts is up to it and Lynch at least has the body to contest. That and Witts can't kick over 40m, which is atrocious. Regardless, there are a lot of talls in our side, and our defence is clearly light-on. Confident on the over with the sides that are named.
I also still think the suns can be reasonably competitive, while port have named a reasonable side against the blues, who are missing some good players. Confident that the first weekend will be a positive one!Comment -
Good luck this season Mr. TrooperComment -
Thanks sando, same to you.Comment -
Spewing that we played so badly that it sunk the over. Was expected a loss, but not that ugly, and not one where we kicked 5 goals from 26 shots. Only needed that to be 7 of 26 and that hits. Still think it was the right play, the pies were just so inaccurate when they had earlier opportunities.
Round 1: 0-2 -1.5 unitsComment -
Play #6 - Gold Coast 1st quarter margin 1-18, $2.75 X 1 unit (Bet365)
The suns need to make an early statement that last year wasn't a fluke, while wanting to push for finals football this year. They go into this match with a very strong line-up, against a tigers outfit which has plenty of questions over it coming into 2014. With some minor off-field distractions, the tigers have been a bit pre-occupied and may not come out as sharp as they would like. I think this combines into the gold coast playing good footy in the first 10 minutes, and I like them to hold onto the lead by the end of the first stanza (without kicking too far ahead). I feel there is great value in this play, so willing to stake a full unit on it.Comment -
I was very confident on the over as well mate as I had 2u on... It wasn't just the behinds it was also the number of out of bounds on the full as well, soooooooo pain full to watch.. I locked in freo ML at $1.77 on Monday so that made the over not hitting not all bad. But like u said I would also make that play on the over againComment -
Play #7 - Port Adelaide 1st quarter margin 1-18, $2.75 X 1 unit (Bet365)
Very similar to the last play on the suns. Port want to be playing finals again and will be aiming for top 4 and have a strong line-up, while the blues have big questions over their upcoming season and do not look as solid coming into round 1 as the blues. I think port win this game, as my longer write-up suggests, I can't really add too much more to it than that. Great value here again, so on it again for a unit.Comment -
Port Adelaide just didn't get out of the blocks at all, but ended up being the far better side after that.
Round 1: 2-3 +0.55 units
A positive first week, but probably should have been better, having tipped the winner of each match I've bet on. Hopefully the second weekend of round 1 will provide some very nice profits.Comment -
Went to the game tonight mate and I'm going to totally agree with your prediction on port, boy are they some team..Comment -
Play #8 - Geelong 1-39, $2.20 X 1 unit (Sportsbet)
The cats host the crows in a game which has neither side running in at 100%. The cats have clouds hanging over Selwood's fitness, while a host of smalls are also out injured for a number of weeks (Christiansen, Motlop, Smedts). The crows are without a number of key players, including their captain van Berlo, Douglas, Otten and the big man Walker, while replacement Tom Lynch is also missing. Both sides are missing some firepower, but both still have reasonable line-ups. If not for that and the warm conditions, the under (187.5) would also be a consideration. I think Geelong have the better 22 going into tonight's match and have the advantage of playing at home, but are missing too many players to really whack Adelaide, so I like the 1-39 play. The cats may be less competitive this year, with a number of their ageing champions retiring, but I am not predicting a big year for the crows. Both sides will be unknown factors early in the year, so not going too hard on this match, just staking 1 unit.
I think port had a lot of improvement to come out of that game too. They still have plenty to work on but are one of the fittest teams in the competition by quite a margin.Comment -
Round 1: 3-3 +1.75 units
Geelong in control all match. Threatened to blow the crows away for sections of it, but they just held in there. Was surprised just how high-scoring the first term was, but warm weather always brings the possibility of high scores.
Just a reminder of my 2 pending bets, both of them were locked in early as my favourite plays of the round, with 2.5 units staked on both. There are similar numbers still available, so both are still solid plays in my view.
Tonight's match between the roos and bombers has been interrupted again by the Hird's, this time an interview by himself and then last night by his wife, trying to cause trouble and focus the attention of the club and onto themselves. Even some of the most rusted-on Hird supporters are questioning their motives now, as they continue to play the victim role in the spotlight. As one reporter has said, they should have copped the whack (especially when he still got paid for the year, what a joke that is) and shut up. Taking the focus off the club the day before they launch their campaign shows how selfish they are. I feel sorry for supporters of the club who just want to move on. Paul Little has done a fantastic job helping the club move on, and I for one hope he sacks Hird after tonight's match so that he can attempt to bring stability to one of the largest and proudest clubs in the AFL.
Pending bets:
Play #4 - North Melbourne -5.5, $1.92 X 2.5 units (Sportsbet)
Play #2 - St Kilda/Melbourne Under 175.5, $1.91 X 2.5 units (Bet365)Comment -
Ouch. Despite locking in what turned out to be a great number very early, the roos got belted all over the field and probably should have lost by more than 6 1/2 goals. Never nice to lose the first big play of the year. The roos simply aren't good enough, while the bombers players admirably find something extra as they did early last year. North Melbourne's season was built up in the media (many journos had them as top 4 material?! ), but that quality of football to start the year is very worrying.
Round 1: 3-4 -0.75 unitsComment -
Play #9 - Hawthorn 1st Quarter -11.5, $1.95 X 2 units (Bet365)
The hawks are traditionally fantastic out of the blocks in Tassie, having played enough home games there to know the conditions from the start (Last year they won their first quarter against Fremantle (30 points), GWS (24 points), Brisbane (18 points, despite being very inaccurate) and Western Bulldogs (15 points)), whether they are playing good, reasonable or poor quality opposition (Of the games mentioned, 2 games had margins significantly increase while 2 had little change after quarter time). The hawks look hungry and come into this season with the mantle of being the best side. The lions have lost a number of players and are looking to gain some structure. The hawks have a good opportunity to blow this game apart early. This is another play that I like, so risking 2 units on it.Comment -
I tail this one with youComment -
also tailing hawks 1st quarter playComment -
Melbourne showed their new defensive-focus, while they had no forwardline to score with, making for an easy winner.
Round 1: 4-5 -0.48 units
To finish off round 1:
Play #10 - West Coast 1st Quarter lead 1-18, $2.20 x 1 unit (Bet365)
Play #11 - West Coast/Western Bulldogs Under 195.5, $1.88 X 1 unit (Sportsbet)
Play #12 - West Coast/Western Bulldogs 1st Quarter Under 47.5, $1.95 X 1 unit (Luxbet)
I've spread my plays here, which is something I don't normally do, however I want to spread some of the risk out here. The games at Patersons Stadium were low-scoring for a number of years, however last year the eagles had a lot of high-scoring matches (in particular, they had some high scores against them), which has inflated the number for this years opening match. However, despite the eagles having a reasonable attack, the dogs look like building themselves on their defence, so I feel they will not be able to compile a massive score at tonight. At the same time, the dogs forwardline looks to be a problem again this year, so I don't see a big score from them either. This leads me to have a unit on the under for the match (195.5). I also feel that these sides are not in for a big year - I just don't see the skill levels being up to finals standard. As such, I think both sides will come out playing some sloppy football, so I am expecting a low-scoring start, leading to the 1 unit on the 1st quarter under (47.5). Finally, given I expect a low-scoring start, I think the 1-18 margin is very likely to be in play, with West Coast the better side than the dogs at home, so another unit goes on there.
Taking a risk with 3 units, but I'm not expecting all 3 of these to miss.Comment -
Good luck, Cooper.
I'm personally staying away from totals. Everything you say does make sense, but West Coast/Bulldogs games at Pattersons have had some big scores lately, despite the Bulldogs improving their defensive side of their game (they have slightly improved their offense to balance it out).Comment -
I am on the over here, this might end up over 210.Comment -
Game went roughly as I thought for 3 quarters, despite the dogs defence not holding up well (Happily cashed the 1Q under and 1-18), with the total at 117 after 3 quarters. Surely, with 78 points in hand, the total was in the bank, but no, they pile on 88 points in a quarter!!!!! Worst beat I've had in a total in a very long time.
Round 1: 6-6 +0.67 units
MiddleMan, I think I'll be considering steering clear of totals after that result tonight! I can certainly understand the aversion to totals, the variance can be insane. The previous high-scoring games between these 2 made me really consider the play, but I thought I was on the right play. Can't help but feel I was for almost the entire match too, but that is totals betting I guess. It doesn't take much to create a lot of variance.Comment -
That is a sick beat. They scored a 10 goals in 10 minutes obscene.Comment -
Round 2
Monday lines (could only get the lines now at 2pm, although quite a few have been up for days):
Richmond -7.5 / Carlton +7.5
Essendon +17.5 / Hawthorn -17.5
St kilda +2.5 / GWS -2.5
Port Adelaide -5.5 / Adelaide +5.5
Fremantle -40.5 / Gold Coast +40.5
Sydney -17.5 / Collingwood +17.5
Brisbane +25.5 / Geelong -25.5
Melbourne +41.5 / West Coast -41.5
Western Bulldogs +17.5 / North Melbourne -17.5
I'm putting a lot of bets on in one hit, a lot of them taking advantage of sportsbet's money-back offer.
Play #1 - Richmond H2H (ML), $1.68 x 1 unit *This has a money back special
Play #2 - Hawthorn H2H, $1.41 X 1 unit *This has a money back special
Play #3 - St Kilda H2H, $2.00 X 1 unit *This has a money back special
Play #4 - Port Adelaide H2H, $1.70 X 1 unit *This has a money back special
Play #5 - North Melbourne H2H, $1.42 X 1 unit *This has a money back special
I won't write too much about some of these plays, as there will be bigger write-ups below. Richmond, Hawthorn and North Melbourne are playing sides that I think each of them is a class above, so I think these 3 plays combined should be netting a profit. It is hard to see any of them not leading for large sections of the match, and I expect all 3 to win. St Kilda go in as underdogs, after both teams come off good round 1 wins (before which they were equal favourites to finish the season in last position), with the GWS hype starting to build quickly. I still think GWS has a long way to go, while the saints continue to be quite a good team at playing dour football. I think they keep this tight, so I like the value here. See below for more on port, I have them to win and love the value on this one too.
Play #6 - Port Adelaide -5.5, $1.92 X 2.5 units (Sportsbet)
Play #7 - Fremantle 1-39, $2.45 X 1 unit (Sportsbet)
Play #8 - West Coast 1-39, $2.55 x 1 unit (Sportsbet)
Play #9 - Parlay: Total Odds $6.25 X 0.5 units (Sportsbet)
-Fremantle 1-39, $2.45
-West coast 1-39, $2.55
Play #10 - Parlay: Total Odds $12.00 X 0.5 units
-Fremantle 1-39, $2.45
-West Coast 1-39, $2.55
-Port Adelaide -5.5, $1.92
I really like Port again this week. They are still going to continue improving in my eyes, and the line is tiny against an Adelaide outfit which continues to look awkward. Showdowns do tend to bring out competitive games between the 2 sides, but port look far too classy. The crows will still be missing many of the same players as last week (van Berlo, Walker, Otten, Douglas, Lynch), while port are again pretty much full-strength. I am shocked the books are not treating them with respect yet (Bet365 have opened at a more reasonable line of 7.5, but even that is still too little)! This looks to be the best play of the week.
Fremantle play the Gold Coast, whom I think are also in for a good season. They set the tone for their season last week, while the dockers pummelled Collingwood. The dockers are a very strong outfit and will lose few games this year, especially at home, so they should win here, but after their win last week, opposition sides will be wary that they need to focus on defence against the dockers. With the suns still improving and learning with each game, I would not be surprised to see them slow the game down, particularly if they are getting blown away early. I think there is good value with the 1-39.
Similarly, the eagles go in as clearly the superior side to Melbourne. The dees have been focusing on their defensive side under Roos, so I see this being a fairly simplistic play - the dees should keep it tight enough that they won't get blow away, but don't have the firepower to take down the eagles. $2.55 is excellent value. I've then coupled the 1-39 plays together in a parlay, and again in a parlay with port at the line.
10.5 units is definitely a lot to outlay on a Monday, but 5 of them are to take advantage of the money back special available. I'm hoping for a big 2nd round after round 1 went close to some nice profits, but could not quite get a couple of important plays over the line.
It was just crazy, especially when they had not scored 20 goals in the previous 60 minutes!Comment -
Really like port and freo 1-39 glad to be on the same side palComment -
Good luck, hopefully a good week is coming up!
Have found one more play I want to jump on early:
Play #11 - North Melbourne First Quarter -4.5, $1.90 X 1.5 units
The more I think about this game, the more I think that I have to forget about the insipid start from the roos for just this week. Brad Scott was filthy on his side being belted around the ground and they are due for a rocket. Coming up against the dogs, after a trip west, and who look like they will struggle to improve in the short term. We saw last year that the roos are capable of starting games well, just not good at finishing them, and after such a slow start against the bombers they will be fired up early. Giving less than a goal in the first quarter is going to be huge value, so I'm going against my longer-term thoughts on the roos and taking them here for 1.5 units. It took a couple of hours of thought to override my initial disdain for the roos round 1 performance, so don't think this play has been made lightly!Comment -
Hi mate,
Hope you don't mind a bit of discussion - hopefully helping both of us.
Richmond vs Carlton- I am finding this quite difficult to get a good read, Carlton's record against Richmond speaks for itself. Hopefully the money comes in for Richmond, because I quite fancy Carlton at the +
St Kilda vs GWS- Agree with value, to an extent, but GWS have a first rate ruckman against Hickey... I think that will be the difference. I think it will be a dour low scoring affair.
Showdown- All over Port. Totally agree with your statement and think they run out comfortable winners. Already played the early line by Sportsbet, just don't like going too big in Showdown's! Port should be 4-5 goal winners.
Melbourne vs West Coast- My biggest play to date, and I think the Eagles will smash them. Here is why:
- Melb have no talls down back, WCE have JJK, Darling, Cox, NN and Sinclair roaming + LeCras
- WCE pressure up with 2012 KPIs – e.g. 38 intercepts in the midfield area (20 in the attacking midfield), went inside forward 50 on 70% of these occasions for a result of 6.2.
- In total they kicked 14 goals from turnovers Sunday night – the most of any team in rd 1.
- Melbourne's high possession, chip chip chip game plan will come unstuck against any half decent team
- Only thing going for Melbourne is West Coasts record at the 'G. It is quite terrible. But they do Melbourne there, then again, who hasn't!
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne- The damning stat was North Melbourne's contested possession count. This is where the Doggies have improved in leaps and bounds. Hoping Griffen is named, because I see Liberatore tearing them a new one. Not sure the Dogs have the quality up forward to necessarily win the game, but I think they will keep it close. I am hoping their effort on Sunday turns punters onto North, because I see tremendous value at the +. Hoping it can get near 4 goals.Comment -
Sensible discussion is always welcome!
I can't get a really strong read on the tigers or blues either. If not for the special, I would just steer completely clear of this game. I think the tigers will be the stronger side, but couldn't unload on the line or try and work a total out of it at this stage.
Saints/GWS - The saints midfield seemed to perform quite well, so I think they can nullify the effects of Mumford. We'll have to wait and see with that one.
Melb/WCE - I wasn't willing to unleash a really big play on the dees keeping it close, but I do rate their new defensive gameplan, even against a strong attack. The eagles do have a size mis-match up forward with the 3rd and 4th talls, but I feel that may help the dees to get some run going from the backline too. I wouldn't be surprised to see Melbourne score a bit more this week too. We'll have to wait and see on this one too, but I hope for your big bet's sake the eagles can do enough. We'll both take 37-39
Dogs/North - That was definitely the big stat, after they were so good in the contested possessions last year. I'd be surprised to see them lose it in this match, especially early, that is why I like the 1Q play. I found it hard to read how the game would play out after that, both sides were confusing last week, although I was leaning toward the roos running away with it by 5-6 goals.Comment -
Hi Coopertrooper, I'm looking at Richmond - Carlton over 183.5 Total. Their last 15 games have gone over this score just concerned about the weather in melbourne. Do you live in melbs? any leans on the weather? any thought appreciatedComment -
The ground hasn't been used for a while so it should be in great condition, but the radar has rain coming right down the east coast, set to hit here tonight. Not sure how much will hit, but forecasts for today were for late thunderstorms that could last all night. Haven't heard anything concrete about how much rain might fall tomorrow though, so can't give you anything certain about the rainfall within 2-3 hours of the game and during the game, which are usually the key.
After my totals play in the pre-season where 2-3mm clouds dropped 35mm in 15 minutes about an hour before the game, I'm more hesitant to take on any rain until I know what the conditions should be like for the game. I'd wait until tomorrow to see how the clouds are rolling in closer to game time. With rain to come overnight, it will probably only cause the line to drop as the public notice it and think it will be wet, so I would personally wait.Comment -
^^sound advice coopertrooper thanks for reply.Comment -
No worries. The total was 180.5 this morning, looks like it has moved a point or 2 up. Rain is still a bit patchy so might be best to avoid this one. No downpour, but it could be slippery.
I think that with these line-ups, the blues look much weaker. Kreuzer would have to be very unlikely to play tonight, I don't think anyone expects him to play with his injury. A couple of plays for tonight:
Play #12 - Richmond Quarter Time -2.5, $1.90 X 1 unit (Bet365)
Play #13 - Richmond Half Time -5.5, $1.95 X 1.5 units (Bet365)
I would not have liked risking much on tonight's game before seeing that Carlton look to be without Kreuzer, while Richmond get Grimes back in (as well as King). Walker out for the blues with suspension won't help their cause and as mentioned, it is likely Sam Rowe will have to somehow try and replace Kreuzer. Recent history suggests Carlton wins these contests against the tigers, although I do think that will change. But, more recent history also says the tigers start well against the blues, having won the first quarter in all 3 of their clashes last year and leading at half time in every game (38 points, 5 and 26). They have high expectations this year and should come out fired up again, while Carlton only seem to be going through the motions to me - I don't think Malthouse knows where to take them this year, as they don't appear serious premiership contenders. Some would argue the blues will know all of this and want to make an impact early, but I doubt their capabilities here. Whether they can run over the top of the tigers again remains to be seen, but I do think they will struggle to keep pace based on the teams named and doubt they can do it again. So, to go with the head to head money back play, another 1 unit on the 1Q line and 1.5 units on the 1H line.
This game usually signals the real start of the passionate debates and gets plenty of attention, hopefully it starts some good debate in here too (but most of all, it hopefully turns out to be a profitable game
).
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I think Richmond will take this game, I like Richmond early as well - love the plays. Some great discussion in here. I am in agreement with most of the things said however one game sticks out as danger signs to me and thats the Freo/Gold Coast match. Obviously I am a huge Dockers supporter however I try to take bias out of my analysis, I really feel like the Dockers have cemented their defensive strategy and plan since Lyons arrival, it is almost second nature now for the core players to move and position themselves into the defensive scheme as well as play extremely hard and tackle ferociously. Criticized about the lack of offense I believe that is what the Dockers have been paying more attention to this preseason, I think they are looking to make a point that they can now score effectively and quickly and also take some risks. I fear that the Suns might be victim number 2 to a huge Docker surge on the scoreboard, I am extremely interested to see how the youngsters matchup away from home against the defensive pressure of Freo. Turnovers need to be at a bare minimum, either way I'll be looking forward to watching the best player of all time - always a treat to watch Gary in the flesh (doesnt come to Perth often).Comment
