Johno's 2013 AFL Season Long Thread

[johno35]

How did you put ur hard earned on the giants with such a small spread Johno. That's just asking for trouble brother. I am with you on Collingwood though so good luck mate.

It was a lack of respect for Port unfortunately, GWS were impressive against the cats last week and I was expecting an upset. You win some you lose some

[johno35]

I have a dubious degenerate multi with Pies -37.5, Pies/Doggies under190.5, Port/GWS under 195.5, and some netball game from another thread. Will be devastated if that kills the 17:1 odds haha. Also on pies -37.5 as a straight bet. I would have thought the line would be closer to -50.

Good luck with that mate, nice odds. The line isn't as high because of Collingwoods so called lack of desire and poor form. They are responding to the negative media though, all over the dogs so far

[Libert1ne]

Yeah good call on the Pies. Class will always shine through when the opposition is as poor as the doggies. It's a shame because I kinda like the dogs haha.

[pulledclear]

Dead as a hammer

[Shifty107]

Miserable second half from the pies to lose by two points. Unreal.

[johno35]

Miserable second half from the pies to lose by two points. Unreal.

Yeah was looking like a 100 point win at half time, but you get bad beats and lucky wins, it usually evens out. Doesn't make it any easier though

[gimps_77]

ive learnt that it doesnt also help to throw say 0.2 or 0.1 unit even on the original handicap in order something like this happens.

I also got burnt today on the end handicap but didnt hedge. Some dont believe it but I think it helps you come out on top

[johno35]

Updated Record:

1 unit plays -17.67
3 units plays +26.48
5 unit plays +13

Overall +21.81 units

Had my best round for the year! 1 unit bets still disappointing but hopefully they start to turn around, had some bad beats on those

[johno35]

ive learnt that it doesnt also help to throw say 0.2 or 0.1 unit even on the original handicap in order something like this happens.

I also got burnt today on the end handicap but didnt hedge. Some dont believe it but I think it helps you come out on top

I've never been one to hedge, I say back your judgment

[johno35]

Wonder how the Stephen Milne news will affect the saints this weekend. And on the flip side the sacking of Neeld

[sando]

I'm thinking the D's very well might cover the line against the Saints this w/e?

Apparently Craig is a lot more popular with the boys than Neeld was?

[Gee]

Yes, I've heard that about Craig too and he always had the respect of the players at Adelaide. He's a good manager.

I think it is safe to predict Melb will come out harder than than they have this season, but will that be enough?

You'll also remember that in 2010 after the schoolgirl saga, the Saints made the GF! They were obviously a better side then, but many of the senior players are the same.

Throwing darts on Sat IMO predicting how these external events are going to affect form. Capping where teams are at is hard enough without the complete unknown.

[johno35]

Hawks/Eagles under 191.5 - 3 units
Hawks -31.5 - 3 units

I expect Eagles to be exposed tonight, for some reason their form has been poor this year. They have some important ins but Hawks are on fire at the moment and will do this easy

[johno35]

Amazing start, poor defense from both teams

[johno35]

Bugger!

[johno35]

Port/Sydney under 163.5 - 3 units
Port +37.5 - 1 unit

[johno35]

Saints/Melbourne over 178.5 - 3 units
Melbourne +38.5 - 1 unit

[johno35]

Richmond -40.5 - 3 units

[johno35]

Boyd more SC than Martin $1.95 - 1 unit

[johno35]

Made up for last night with some good wins today, could have been better with the saints game going under to what looked like an easy over going into the last term.

[johno35]

Plays for Sunday:

Freo/North under 164.5 - 5 units
Freo -20.5 - 3 units

Geelong -28.5 - 3 units

[Vinnie Paz]

Damn this already at 158.5, still playable?

[the tross]

Where's this freo total at Vin?

[Vinnie Paz]

Bet365

[hedgejob]

Freo total is now 148.5 at bet365. Other books haven't opened the market yet.

[Vinnie Paz]

Damn it keeps dropping, I saw 160 an hour or 2 ago.

[hedgejob]

142.5

[sando]

142.5

Damn it keeps dropping, I saw 160 an hour or 2 ago.

Let it keep dropping, if it gets below 140 then the over becomes the smart play (if any) in my opinion. Only problem is the weather (showers predicted) also supports an under play, however you have to draw the line somewhere. Regardless of their position on the ladder, the Roos remain one of the highest scoring teams in the league averaging 104.5 ppg. Any total over 155-160 and the under looks like a great play.

[johno35]

That's why I got in early, Freo's squeeze along with the rain should make a low score, I wouldn't touch 140 though

[hedgejob]

Agree Sando but if ground gets wet it won't dry the whole game and ball will be hard to control.

[johno35]

North did not handle the wet conditions at all well against GC, they are a running team, Freo should dominate this game

[johno35]

Geelong WOW! I thought after being 52 points up late in the third it was all over but awesome comeback from Lions

[DHB]

WTF happended in the last quarter.
cats fell asleep or something.
thought they would easily cover the 28.5 line.

[johno35]

I watched it and its like they flicked a switched and stopped. Lions just seemed to win all the clearances

[johno35]

Updated Record:

1 unit plays -14.67
3 units plays +22.52
5 unit plays +18

Overall +25.85 units

Up 4 units for the round, nice recovery after being down 6 units on Friday night. Looking forward to 9 games next week, I hate byes