Ed Bain Discussion Thread

[daoilman]

I've been a couple 2-3 hours trying to get into Ed's site w/o much luck, I sent Ed an email notifing him of same, hopefully it will be up and running soon.

Here's what I got from looking at stats last night...

The #5, Paleo Native in the 5th race at Parx is trained by Anthony Dutrow, and ridden by Kendrick Carmouche, Dutrow is well over 30% in 3 of the four categories, track, class, distance and surface, and in the high 20's in the 4th category, Carmouche is also high % and combined the trainer/rider are high %.

Looks like a solid bet, demand odds of at least 3/2, anything less is no bet, good luck.

Bad racing luck noted, Paleo Native placed on DRF watch list.

"PALEO NATIVE broke slowly, moved up near the inside under a rating hold and stopped"

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/PRX040212USA5.pdf

[daoilman]

Lets watch the first two races at Parx today, see how the stats are running...

In the first the stats point to the #2 and #5, in the second the stats make the #1 stand out.

All three of the above selections are favorites or co-favorites, so caution is advised.

A small daily double may be the right play, although the expected return for both combinations will more than likely be short.

Also on today's card trainer Anthony Dutrow has three entered, it should be interesting to see how he fares.

[MrBrown]

Asmussen going against Dutrow in 7th, 36% @ Parx plus a 3rd race off layoff

Dutrow vs the trainers #1 and #5 in 5th
In 9th he's up against 2 Lynch horses and Calderon who's sneaky good, usually at a price.

in 10th beware, on Ed's site R. Allen the stats are incorrect, he is 8 for 75 this year with career going back to '88 winning 1 out of 8.6 races

Interesting card

[MrBrown]

Will Rodgers, i like these minor tracks, these trainers get extra looks, you can find value often in exacta boxes with these trainers

FERRELL,PADILLA,BRAVO, GRIGGS, ENGEL,OBERLANDER, GLADD, PRUITT, W.L. BROWN, T.G. WILLIAMS, CASTER, TEEL, NOLAN, TRETT (who had a $88 first time starter yesterday)

[daoilman]

Some nice value in the first from Parx, the public made the #3 the favorite and the #2 and #5 went off as overlays, the #2 winning the race and paying $7.00, now if the #1 wins the second race we get a fair return on the daily double bet.

Edit: The #1 in the second opens at 1-9, the last time I saw the double price it was $13.00.

[Easy-Rider 66]

#1 is the prohibitive favorite right now. Going to try and beat him, probably with the #4. I will also cover with the #1.

[MrBrown]

yes Pino/Carmouche good hit in 1st, Maymo #4 in 2nd looks like the one to beat the #1 if is beaten

[Easy-Rider 66]

yes Pino/Carmouche good hit in 1st, Maymo #4 in 2nd looks like the one to beat the #1 if is beaten

Playing the #5 to win longshot #3 for place.

[daoilman]

#1 is the prohibitive favorite right now. Going to try and beat him, probably with the #4. I will also cover with the #1.

Nice call on the #4.

[Easy-Rider 66]

yes Pino/Carmouche good hit in 1st, Maymo #4 in 2nd looks like the one to beat the #1 if is beaten

Good call. Switched late from the 4 to the 5. Bad move.

[MrBrown]

Maymo under rated imo, the Petro type, usually a threat on under 10-1 M/L ones

[daoilman]

#4-#2-#5 in the 3rd? Tough race to cap.

[Easy-Rider 66]

#4-#2-#5 in the 3rd? Tough race to cap.

Going to box 2, 3 , 4

[MrBrown]

is tough, Klesaris stable heating up, Goldberg #5 a threat it seems, good trainers on all, i'll pass, hoping over to Will Rodgers, lol

[MrBrown]

Going to box 2, 3 , 4

Bingo, good job

[Easy-Rider 66]

Race #4 2/3 box 2/6 box, 6 to win

[MrBrown]

Will Rodgers, i like these minor tracks, these trainers get extra looks, you can find value often in exacta boxes with these trainers

FERRELL,PADILLA,BRAVO, GRIGGS, ENGEL,OBERLANDER, GLADD, PRUITT, W.L. BROWN, T.G. WILLIAMS, CASTER, TEEL, NOLAN, TRETT (who had a $88 first time starter yesterday)

race 2 WR, Padilla takes it, lone trainer in race on watchlist

[Easy-Rider 66]

Parx Race #5 4 to win, 6/4 exacta

[daoilman]

Dutrow goes 0 for 3 today at Parx, watch for this guy to string wins together very soon.

[MrBrown]

Asmussen going against Dutrow in 7th, 36% @ Parx plus a 3rd race off layoff

Dutrow vs the trainers #1 and #5 in 5th
In 9th he's up against 2 Lynch horses and Calderon who's sneaky good, usually at a price.

in 10th beware, on Ed's site R. Allen the stats are incorrect, he is 8 for 75 this year with career going back to '88 winning 1 out of 8.6 races

Interesting card

10th won by R.Allen at $11.60, I've found a few on Ed's site that are incorrect, I know because I keep my own stats which very few do, not knocking the site at all cause there's tons of free info, just saying if you see a trainer with 0 or just a few starts, it's best to check it, equibase is a quick and easy reference check

[MrBrown]

Dutrow goes 0 for 3 today at Parx, watch for this guy to string wins together very soon.

He will kick butt the first few weeks when Delaware park opens, watch

[daoilman]

Had to take a day for business, tune in tomorrow, we'll get this thread going again.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Bain has got a lot of plays for the opening day of Keeneland Friday. It will take some handicapping to separate them.

[Poppa Catfish]

Bain has got a lot of plays for the opening day of Keeneland Friday. It will take some handicapping to separate them.

Keeneland strikes me as the kind of meet where stats like these are worth their weight in gold.

[joeyp1222]

I have been trying to figure out what ed bain is doing and after looking at his thursday automatics if i got this right, i decided to try a few plays at 4 different tracks today on thursday the 5th

GUFSTREAM
RACE-9 DOUBLE 2-6/5

AQUADUCT
RACE-8 DOUBLE 4/9-6-2

PILMICO
RACE-1 PICK 3--7/4-5/2-7
RACE-6 DOUBLE 7-3/2-7

OAKLAWN
RACE-2 EXBOX 2-7
RACE-8 EXBOX 2-6

INVESTING $26 AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS

[MrBrown]

Keeneland strikes me as the kind of meet where stats like these are worth their weight in gold.

I agree, take note if playing the Keenland meet, as of now there are 2 incorrect trainer stats on Ed's site which involve 2 very good trainers
JL JONES is 22 for 68 in this year alone
JM RODGERS is 7 for 39 this year

also fyi, WARD CALHOUN CATALANO HESS C.BROWN among Ed's 4/30,auto's that seem to point strongly for Keenland
GORDER stable can heat up fast and pop at prices also

[MrBrown]

I have been trying to figure out what ed bain is doing and after looking at his thursday automatics if i got this right, i decided to try a few plays at 4 different tracks today on thursday the 5th

GUFSTREAM
RACE-9 DOUBLE 2-6/5



AQUADUCT
RACE-8 DOUBLE 4/9-6-2

PILMICO
RACE-1 PICK 3--7/4-5/2-7
RACE-6 DOUBLE 7-3/2-7

OAKLAWN
RACE-2 EXBOX 2-7
RACE-8 EXBOX 2-6

INVESTING $26 AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS

g/l today, I'll also be playing CT tonight, those smaller tracks have some pretty mediocre trainers that are bet against the really good ones.
Not sure why S.Beattie isn't an auto but she can be a big force out there.
2 other woman trainers often overlooked out there are VIANDS and PICKETT that are often good add in's in the exotics as their prices are often decent.

[joeyp1222]

Aquaduct 2nd race ed hits his automatic #5 two moons at 7-1
payouts were $17.00, 7.40 and 3.10

Gulfsteream Race-9 he had the winner #6 revenue and the place horse #2 for a $38 exacta

At aquaduct he had the winner od the 8th and in the 9th is horse ran 2nd paying $14

At pilmico, in the 6th he had #7 as the winner and he had many 2nd places at different tracks today

[daoilman]

Nice of you to join us Joe, I was called out again today on business, and I was just going to ask if anyone had any Bain winners today. I'm already looking at the Keenland card for tomorrow, and I'm fairly sure I'm taking the day off.....

No service calls on Friday's.

[joeyp1222]

theres a card game at the eagles in bing tonight at 7 small game 20 players $15 buy in

[joeyp1222]

I looked at ed's automatics for friday at keeland and here are the horses which i came up with hope i did this right.

Keeland

r1-----#5 fire your boss------out
r2-----#3 spoiled rotten------out
r2-----#5 gentlemans code---winner 9.20, 5.00
r2-----#4 red maserati-------out
r3-----#5 reputa the beautah---place--4.60
r4-----#1 honey chile
r5-----#5 perfect afleet
r5-----#3 grip hands
r7-----#1 funny proposition
r7-----#9 sing it out
r8-----#9 successful dan
r9-----#5 montastic
r9-----#2 watward sailor
r9-----#1 state of play
r10----#4 sokituni samurai
r10----#7 smile daddy



might play a pick 3 in the 1st to start the day with
5 with 3-4-5 with 5


lets see how many 1sts and 2nds he pulls out today on a $2 base and see what kind of roi he ends up with

starting win-place bets is $64

[brucedenton]

Hey Joey, are the 4 +30s as important as the automatics with Ed Bain?
Thanks.

[MrBrown]

I agree, take note if playing the Keenland meet, as of now there are 2 incorrect trainer stats on Ed's site which involve 2 very good trainers
JL JONES is 22 for 68 in this year alone
JM RODGERS is 7 for 39 this year

also fyi, WARD CALHOUN CATALANO HESS C.BROWN among Ed's 4/30,auto's that seem to point strongly for Keenland
GORDER stable can heat up fast and pop at prices also

the spelling i gave is incorrect on trainer it should spell JM ROGERS, really nice score in Pimlico 10th yesterday at $27, he's now 8 for 40 this year.

one thing I don't understand is if a trainer has the "stats" to be an automatic then why isn't that trainer listed in the automatic section in all races he's in, not just 1 or a few?
anyone know?

[Easy-Rider 66]

the spelling i gave is incorrect on trainer it should spell JM ROGERS, really nice score in Pimlico 10th yesterday at $27, he's now 8 for 40 this year.

one thing I don't understand is if a trainer has the "stats" to be an automatic then why isn't that trainer listed in the automatic section in all races he's in, not just 1 or a few?
anyone know?

The way I read it is that the trainer is an automatic specifically for the type of race being run.

[MrBrown]

The way I read it is that the trainer is an automatic specifically for the type of race being run.

gotcha, thanks