Ed Bain Discussion Thread

[daoilman]

What do you think about the 2 horse in that race?

My interpretation of the stats for the #2 let me think that the trainer Johnston is competent enough, on the jockey side, John Jacinto stats are sub par, beyond those two items very little info is available, I would rate #2 iffy at best.

You got some inside info that makes you think the #2 is alive today?

[daoilman]

The 2$ pick3 is coming back 68.80$ for 2$ with the #1 winning the 8th race, by far the shortest of all possible returns. Needed the #8 to get by the #6 in the 6th race, at 8-1 we would be sitting some value right now, alas, it's not to be, so we root for the #1 hope for the best.

[daoilman]

The #6 comes up giant and the #1 flounders, and down the tubes we go.

[MrBrown]

where the money to be made by following trainers is are at the mid/small tracks, too many good trainers going up against each other at the SA/AQU/GP types, why make it harder than it is imo.
At the smaller ones there are so many mediocre trainers that are almost auto throwouts going up against good to very good trainers.
The Penn double looked like 4-3 in 1st and 4-10 in the second, DeMasi the 4, Wells the 10, they made Wyners 3 the 8/5 fav, a mediocre trainer at best.DeMasi one of the best around, female or male.
the Maker/DeMasi dd 3-4 pays an overlay $72
The big races might be fun to watch, smaller tracks build bankrolls, with this trainer method

[edbain]

Hi Guys, daoilman invited me to post because of the above thread. One of the great things about betting with statistics is it's an understanding of why I made the bet. I know what a percentage means. I can relate a percentage to that odds table that was set up. I was a speed player for a really long time. Couldn't figure it out and I had my own speed figures. Betting with percentages when you understand the context which are rules that You or I have to set up and then follow that routine on every singe Automatic or 4 + 30. The biggest thing anybody can do for themselves is record keeping in an excel spread sheet. Today I had 5 bets. I went 0 for 4 on my first 4. My next bet is a minute to Post at Penn, Race 4, the 2 Dede's Mouse.

[edbain]

The trainer is Jamie Ness. The last year and 1/2 I've made 112 bets on his 4 + 30s or Automatics, I hit 32 and have a 28% win rate. My average win mutuel is $7.08. He's at 4/1. Just watched the race, he came in 4th. 0 for 5 today. That's the life of a win bettor. I'll post tomorrow what my plays are and I'll discuss the plays. I'd like to add that you guys seem to have a good grasp of what and how to bet and if you do, don't change anything. Let it work for a time before you change. I normally have my plays ready around 11 AM EST. Good luck today and this evening. Ed

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey Ed- You have a great website, and I look forward to your contributions.

[Arletta]

Awesome! I would love to be able to hear and to try and understand myself just what I am looking for when picking a horse above the others. I have been trying to use it for 3 days and so far not much luck. I think because I zone in on the purple highlights too much.

I am going to go back and watch the you tube videos this evening and refresh my memory a bit.

I sift out beyer/speed numbers mostly regularly in my handicapping, but so do most and I would love to find something that just helps me tweek my picks just a tad bit more.

[daoilman]

A warm welcome and big thank you to Ed for joining us, hopefully we all gain from these interactions, having Ed here to help us along sure can't hurt.

[bort]

The trainer is Jamie Ness. The last year and 1/2 I've made 112 bets on his 4 + 30s or Automatics, I hit 32 and have a 28% win rate. My average win mutuel is $7.08. He's at 4/1. Just watched the race, he came in 4th. 0 for 5 today. That's the life of a win bettor. I'll post tomorrow what my plays are and I'll discuss the plays. I'd like to add that you guys seem to have a good grasp of what and how to bet and if you do, don't change anything. Let it work for a time before you change. I normally have my plays ready around 11 AM EST. Good luck today and this evening. Ed

Hi Ed,

Thanks for joining this thread. I'm interested in the past performance of your 5 daily picks that you sell on your website, and I'm sure that many others here are as well. Can you please post your stats?

[MrBrown]

Ed, I've followed you many years and can say you are a top-notch class act.
I started following horses all the way back in 1958 as a 10 year old.
In around '70 I finally came to the conclusion the way to consistently beat the ponies was by keeping trainer stats and almost exclusivity betting trainers, relying very very little on the horses stats.
In the following 40 years I can say I might have had 2 or 3 losing years and that was near the beginning.
You are one of the very few that seem to rely so heavy on trainers and it's a breath of fresh air for sure.

One question, do you agree that the mid to small tracks offer more opportunity's for this type of betting than the large tracks?
And Welcome to the site!

[singgooner]

Dear Ed Bain, As an Englishman - we have betting forums like Betfair and people go on these public discussion sites to help - but very often - idiots try to run them down and slag them off.

So, after seeing what happens on English betting forums - please may I say - it takes a true gentleman to get in touch with "the great unwashed" and stand up and be counted for his work - that is a sign of a great man - to stand infront of the rabble and be taken to account !

Thus a personal thanks for contacting us on this forum and I hope everyone respects your input.

Is it possible to provide a quick way to use your data - as there's a lot of it.

Do we look at the horses that have great early & mid pace pars for sprints & late & overall pars for route races.

Do we focus on these kind of horses when they are coming back from a layoff - or having 1st run for a new trainer after claim ?

What's the difference between 4+30 and Automatics !

I am sure everyone will really appreciated any positive directions you can push us to !

many thanks once again for your time.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Website down. Anyone else having same problem?

[Arletta]

Website down. Anyone else having same problem?

yes

[Easy-Rider 66]

I checked the site earlier and the #6 in the first race at Parx is a 4+30/automatic. Was 9/2 on morning line, now at 8/5 17 minutes before post. Might take a shot.

[Easy-Rider 66]

The #6 started well, but faded fast. The #7 at 35/1 won.

[daoilman]

I just recieved the following EMail from Ed, he asked me to forward it to this thread.

We are experiencing server errors.
I am also doing an update to some of the programs to eliminate all other issues with the stats.
I have 3 plays today

Gulfstream Race 4 # 7 Return to What-Trainer Daniel Pita Claimed back this horse

Oaklawn Race 9 # 6 Sue's Sweet Sue-Trainer Steve Hobby Hits Lay1 Sprint 33% in the 4 race form cycle.

Fair Grounds Race 13 # 8 Su Casa G Casa-Trainer William Bret Calhoun Lay 3 Sprint 33% Horse is 7 for 4 in Stakes Races.

You can post these plays on the message board.
Unfortunately I am really tied up with the site today.

I apologize I know they can not get on the site yet however I am working on it with the server techs.

I will line up another day next week

Thanks

Ed

[daoilman]

The site is back up.

[daoilman]

An interesting horse in the 6th race at Tampa Bay, the #12, Kirbinator, Trainer Ness has no stat under 30% in the four categories, track, class, distance and surface, with the odds hovering in the 5-2 range this could be a very good bet. Add to this he puts up his hot rider, together they are 4+30.

http://edbain.com/pp/Tampa%20Bay%20Downs/4-1-2012/6

[MrBrown]

Good hit with the #7 in GP 4th, also nice O'Connell/Pita r3/4 dd for $94.60

[daoilman]

4th race - Gulfstream Park - April 01, 2012
Off at: 2:37 Race Type: Claiming
Age Restriction: Four Year Old and Upward
Purse: $29,250
Distance: Five Furlongs On The Turf
Track Condition: Firm
Winning Time: 55.30
7	Retire to What	Jesus Lopez Castanon	10.40	5.60	4.60
6	Car Thief	Jose C. Ferrer		8.00	6.60
9	Love Who	Chris Landeros			11.60

[MrBrown]

An interesting horse in the 6th race at Tampa Bay, the #12, Kirbinator, Trainer Ness has no stat under 30% in the four categories, track, class, distance and surface, with the odds hovering in the 5-2 range this could be a very good bet. Add to this he puts up his hot rider, together they are 4+30.

http://edbain.com/pp/Tampa%20Bay%20Downs/4-1-2012/6

Nice score on your #12

[daoilman]

Nice score on your #12

TY, there's a lot to be said for stat type haddicapping, sometimes the choices jump off the page at you.

6th race - Tampa Bay Downs - April 01, 2012
Off at: 2:56 Race Type: Maiden Claiming
Age Restriction: Three Year Old
Purse: $11,500
Distance: Seven Furlongs On The Dirt
Track Condition: Fast
Winning Time: 1:25.25
12	Kirbinator	Huber Villa-Gomez	5.20	3.80	3.40
3	Wokeuponhomeplate	Ronald Dale Allen, Jr.		3.60	2.80
9	Francis Marion	Dean P. Butler			6.00

[daoilman]

I've been a couple 2-3 hours trying to get into Ed's site w/o much luck, I sent Ed an email notifing him of same, hopefully it will be up and running soon.

Here's what I got from looking at stats last night...

The #5, Paleo Native in the 5th race at Parx is trained by Anthony Dutrow, and ridden by Kendrick Carmouche, Dutrow is well over 30% in 3 of the four categories, track, class, distance and surface, and in the high 20's in the 4th category, Carmouche is also high % and combined the trainer/rider are high %.

Looks like a solid bet, demand odds of at least 3/2, anything less is no bet, good luck.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Looking to play Parx/Turf Paradise today. Hopefully, there are some good plays from Mr. Bain. Paleo native is 2/1 on the morning line.

[daoilman]

I still haven't gotten the Bain site to open, am I the only one, or are others having issues too?

[Easy-Rider 66]

I still haven't gotten the Bain site to open, am I the only one, or are others having issues too?

Just got back on. Try it now. He's got about 5 plays from Parx today.

[daoilman]

Just got back on. Try it now. He's got about 5 plays from Parx today.

Thank you.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Race #2 Parx (7) to win, (5/7) eaxacta box

[Arletta]

Race #2 Parx (7) to win, (5/7) eaxacta box

Can't believe he's holding at 5/2!

[Arletta]

eeewwwy..... that sucked.

[Easy-Rider 66]

#7 did not run at all. Try again race #3.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Last race if I do not hit. Win on the #7, place on the #3.

[Arletta]

Last race if I do not hit. Win on the #7, place on the #3.

I was looking at that 7 as well as the 2... Glad I didn't make a wager though now.

I need to study more

[Easy-Rider 66]

Parx race 4 #4 to win, exacta 1/4