Ed Bain Discussion Thread

[singgooner]

HI,

I think using the Automatics with the last time par is a good idea.

Has anyone thought about cross referencing with Brisnet - so if the automatic - is also top Brisnet or beyer
figure - then it may narrow down fewer and more targetted selections - that are stronger for your betting
bank - just a thought !

Anyhow, this thread is the best and most thought provoking for a long time - well done for the person that started it.

PS How does Ed Bain make money by giving the product out for free ?

[Easy-Rider 66]

Took the #7 in Race 6 at Tampa Bay Downs. $4 to win.

[MrBrown]

Bain trainers in 6th 6 2 5 9, 6 first time starter so hard with PAR stats, i'd go 5 6 9 box with a few bucks on #2 win, tough race

[MrBrown]

Auto's after you do this awhile you'll see are not always sure things. you'll get to know the trainers yourself better and see the auto triners race against lesser trainers which can inflate their record. not saying they aren't very good, they are but this is a "feel" thing, it gets inside your head it gets easier

[MrBrown]

Bain sells his picks and makes a ton on ads with tons of hits, thats how he does it

[MrBrown]

BIG score in 6th! #6 $23.80 ex $70 6/5 P3 8/3/6 pays $222 STRING 'EM

[daoilman]

Anyhow, this thread is the best and most thought provoking for a long time - well done for the person that started it.

Thanks for the kind words, but credit should be given to Easyrider, we kinda conspired to start this thing.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Got the #1 and a 1/7 exacta box race 9 from Tampa.

[daoilman]

Can we bet the #8 in the 10th race from Gulfstream?

[Arletta]

Can we bet the #8 in the 10th race from Gulfstream?

Be dumb not to

[daoilman]

No bet at even money.

[daoilman]

I'm looking at race 9 from Gulfstream today, utilizing Bain stats as a reference it looks like the #1 and #8 are the hot horses.

The #1 trained by Pletcher will in all likelihood will be the post time favorite, as a post time favorite at odds of 3/2 or better this would be a bet.

The #8 trained by Ness could also be very competitive in this grouping, chances are good that the #8 will not be the favorite. The #8 shows several very good stats and has a very good par time profile.

I would like to hear additional input with regards towards this race, have I missed anything?

Should the #8 bet flat bet as a non-favorite?

Should #1 and #8 be keyed in exotic bets?

How can we best exploit this situation?

1 5/2

Horse Shared Heart 4Y F Forestry/Seeking the Gold RR 6-2-2-2 33% 66% 100% DST 1-1-0-0 100% 100% 100% TRK 3-2-1-0 66% 100% 100%

Jockey Castellano, Javier Weight 121 DST 163-34-29-22 20% 38% 52% W/Trn 336-98-49-42 29% 43% 56%

Owner Wertheimer Farm LLC & Frere S/OC 8-1-3-1 12% 50% 62%

Trainer Pletcher, Todd A S/OC 132-28-19-23 21% 35% 53% W/Own 204-52-36-30 25% 43% 57%

Date

Trk

Surface

Dist

Odds

Class

Purse

Jockey

Weight

1 ST 1/4

2 ND 1/4

3 RD 1/4+

ALL 1/4

10Feb12

GP

D-SLP

6 1/2f

1.00*

ALW

53.5K

Castellano J

119

3 - 22.77

4 - 23.22

1 - 32.02

1 - 1:17.75

11Dec11

GP

Turf-GD

1 1/16M

2.20*

ALW

53.5K

Castellano J

116

3 - 24.63

2 - 23.81

2 - 56.01

2 - 1:44.42

05Nov11

CD

D-GD

1M

1.60

ALW

48K

Velazquez J

114

2 - 22.92

2 - 23.19

2 - 51.37

2 - 1:37.30

28Sep11

BEL

D-FST

1M

2.10

STKS

60K

Velazquez J

118

2 - 23.17

2 - 23.48

3 - 50.82

3 - 1:37.28

Workouts:

Aug 8 5f CD 1:02.20 6/17

Aug 1 4f CD 50.60 7/10

Jul 4 4f CD 49.20 12/62

L1S 45+D 243-57-40-38 23% 39% 55% L1S 45+D If Fav 99-35-19-13 4+30 35% 54% 67% L1S 45+D W/Own 16-7-4-3 4+30 43% 68% 87%

WLR1S 227-70-36-37 4+30 30% 46% 62% WLR1S If Fav 106-51-18-14 @ 48% 65% 78% WLR1S W/Own 13-4-4-2 4+30 30% 61% 76%

TRN LAYOFF 4 RACE FORM CYCLE:	TRN CLAIM 4 RACE FORM CYCLE:	TRN WLR 4 RACE FORM CYCLE:	TRN DEBUT 4 RACE FORM CYCLE:
L4 R/S 36% 44% 55% 45 Days +		WLR4 R/S 26% 43% 64%
L3 R/S 33% 44% 61% 45 Days +		WLR3 R/S 18% 36% 53%
L2 R/S 30% 50% 64% 45 Days +		WLR2 R/S 23% 38% 54%
L1 R/S 23% 39% 55% 45 Days +		WLR1 R/S 30% 46% 62%

8 5/1

Horse Lady Of Greatness 6Y M Greatness/Belong to Me RR 31-7-7-5 22% 45% 61% DST 1-1-0-0 100% 100% 100% TRK 2-0-2-0 0% 100% 100%

Jockey Goncalves, Leandro Weight 119 DST 178-29-31-28 16% 33% 49% W/Trn 154-63-28-13 @ 40% 59% 67%

Owner Midwest Thoroughbreds, Inc. S/OC 147-42-22-25 28% 43% 60%

Trainer Ness, Jamie S/OC 171-50-26-33 29% 44% 63% W/Own 1553-486-295-214 4+30 31% 50% 64%

Date

Trk

Surface

Dist

Odds

Class

Purse

Jockey

Weight

1 ST 1/4

2 ND 1/4

3 RD 1/4+

ALL 1/4

14Mar12

TAM

D-FST

5 1/2f

1.00*

CLM 20K

19.7K

Goncalves L

118

1 - 22.04

1 - 23.15

1 - 17.60

1 - 1:02.79

03Mar12

TAM

Turf-FRM

1M

4.00

OC 32K

21.4K

Goncalves L

118

4 - 23.46

5 - 23.69

7 - 48.74

7 - 1:35.50

23May11

PEN

D-SLP

6f

2.20

CLM 25K

27K

Otero W P

119

4 - 22.68

4 - 22.67

4 - 26.35

4 - 1:11.63

23Apr11

TAM

Turf-FRM

1M

0.90*

SALW 10K

14.4K

Villa G H

118

2 - 24.09

2 - 24.27

2 - 50.49

2 - 1:38.65

Workouts:

Sep 23 3f FP 38.80 2/3

Aug 19 4f FP 54.00 10/10

Jul 10 5f FP 1:05.00 6/8

L3S 45+D 91-36-12-9 4+30 39% 52% 62% L3S 45+D If Fav 51-24-9-6 @ 47% 64% 76% L3S 45+D W/Own 57-20-9-7 4+30 35% 50% 63%

WLR1S 452-161-103-56 4+30 35% 58% 70% WLR1S If Fav 261-116-60-32 @ 44% 67% 79% WLR1S W/Own 237-93-53-33 4+30 39% 61% 75%

TRN LAYOFF 4 RACE FORM CYCLE:	TRN CLAIM 4 RACE FORM CYCLE:	TRN WLR 4 RACE FORM CYCLE:	TRN DEBUT 4 RACE FORM CYCLE:
L4 R/S 36% 59% 70% 45 Days +		WLR4 R/S 35% 49% 63%
L3 R/S 39% 52% 62% 45 Days +		WLR3 R/S 28% 44% 56%
L2 R/S 34% 51% 64% 45 Days +		WLR2 R/S 30% 51% 67%
L1 R/S 31% 45% 59% 45 Days +		WLR1 R/S 35% 58% 70%

[Easy-Rider 66]

Assuming the odds stay close to where they are, I would bet the #8 to win and cover with the #1. It looks like both are automatics. Also the #1 is coming off a 6 week layoff, while the #8 just raced 2 weeks ago. Not sure who has the advantage there.

[balls2wall]

Great thread guys. I will plan on following and learning.

I had never heard of Bain until I found this thread. It looks like a great site. Thanks for the heads up on him. I am looking forward to incorporating his site into my capping.

[MrBrown]

GP race 9 I'll also use Mott's #3 in the DD's and P3/P4

[daoilman]

GP race 9 I'll also use Mott's #3 in the DD's and P3/P4

Thank you for the input MrBrown, I was hoping you would show up and I'm glad you did.

3 3/1

Horse Anecdote 4Y F First Samurai/Arch RR 8-3-1-0 37% 50% 50% DST 1-0-0-0 0% 0% 0% TRK 2-0-0-0 0% 0% 0%

Jockey Castanon, Jesus Weight 119 DST 140-18-15-14 12% 23% 33% W/Trn 81-14-5-6 17% 23% 30%

Owner James S. Karp S/OC 4-0-1-1 0% 25% 50%

Trainer Mott, William S/OC 65-13-5-16 20% 27% 52% W/Own 86-21-6-9 24% 31% 41%

Date

Trk

Surface

Dist

Odds

Class

Purse

Jockey

Weight

1 ST 1/4

2 ND 1/4

3 RD 1/4+

ALL 1/4

14Mar12

GP

Turf-FRM

5f

12.10

OC 62.5K

66.1K

Castanon J

119

6 - 21.61

8 - 22.19

10 - 11.46

10 - 55.07

27Nov11

CD

D-SLP

6f

6.20

ALW

48K

Castanon J

117

2 - 21.55

2 - 24.14

1 - 25.04

1 - 1:10.68

02Nov11

CD

D-FST

6f

1.20*

CLM 30K

20K

Castanon J

119

1 - 22.03

1 - 23.59

1 - 24.67

1 - 1:10.29

17Sep11

TP

SYN-FST

6 1/2f

1.90

OC 20K

24K

Canchano A

116

1 - 23.26

2 - 23.29

4 - 32.86

4 - 1:19.52

L2S 45+D 61-10-8-10 16% 29% 45% L2S 45+D If Fav 15-4-3-2 26% 46% 60% L2S 45+D W/Own 4-2-0-0 50% 50% 50%

WLR2S 45-9-6-9 20% 33% 53% WLR2S If Fav 11-6-1-2 4+30 54% 63% 81% WLR2S W/Own 2-0-0-0 0% 0% 0%

TRN LAYOFF 4 RACE FORM CYCLE:	TRN CLAIM 4 RACE FORM CYCLE:	TRN WLR 4 RACE FORM CYCLE:	TRN DEBUT 4 RACE FORM CYCLE:
L4 R/S 23% 38% 46% 45 Days +		WLR4 R/S 23% 38% 69%
L3 R/S 20% 34% 48% 45 Days +		WLR3 R/S 17% 32% 42%
L2 R/S 16% 29% 45% 45 Days +		WLR2 R/S 20% 33% 53%

[MrBrown]

the #3 scratched, Mott probably saving him for Keenland, can't wait for Keenland to start!

[MrBrown]

anyone experiment with Bain @ Penn and/or CT last night ?, just me but this trainer stuff works better at the mid/small tracks even better than the SA/AQUA/GP types cause there are so many very mediocre trainers at the smaller ones going up against a few very good ones.Kreiser, Gory had nice scores at Penn and Salvaggio had 3!!
Even Pletcher showed up there and won, low odds but keeps you in the string with the DD's and P's.

I'm pretty anal with this trainer stuff and have records going back a few years so if anyone is like me, the Bain info on KS Patterson (who won the 7th at CT)is incorrect in reading 1-0 lifetime, he is a very nice 317-42 and great 8 for 28 in 2012

[singgooner]

Just looking at the wealth of info on the web-site - I have been trying to weed out some angles.

But do it manually - is a nightmare to go through the whole cards.

Even the 4+30 tomorrow - look for Friday - 146 horses - way too much time to shift through all those.

So, after 2 days of trying to get things sorted in my excel spreadsheet - I think I will have to stick to
just AUTOMATICS

the angles I am looking for are CLAIMED HORSES IN LAST RACE THAT RACE A SECTOR PAR (early, late, mid or all)
LAST TIME LAY OFF HORSES that posted a MID pace PAR on dirt or LATE PAR for turf
and another angle is a AUTOMATIC that posted a MID pace PAR with another PAR posted.

Those 3 angles should be interesting - but it is the amount of time - you have to sift through.

I am not complaining - it is great that it is free and it is upto us to find some easy solutions to the holy grail -
how to consistently hit profit from using a handicapping tool !

To infinity and behind with Ed Bain !

[Easy-Rider 66]

Just hit the 6/1 exacta in the 2nd race at Santa Anita. Both were 4+30's. The 1 was 26/1, lost by a nose to the 1/2 shot.

[daoilman]

The #8 beats the #1 in the 9th at Gulfstream, and I'm not even a little bit surprised.

To the public the #8 probably looked cheap compared to the #1, when using Bain stats and putting emphasis on trainer %'s and not putting so much clout in class ratings it's not difficult to bet the longer of what appears to be two evenly matched horses that layover their respective field.

[daoilman]

Again today we will focus on racing at Gulfstream, the 6th race in particular.

In the 6th we have two automatics, those being the #4 and the #6.

Both horses sport attractive morning line odds, albeit the #4 is the morning favorite at odds of 7-2. The question begs, which one is the play? Or, is there another who deserves our support?

4 7/2

Horse It's Never to Late 7Y G Repent/Jose Binn RR 26-11-2-4 @ 42% 50% 65% DST 9-5-0-2 4+30 55% 55% 77% TRK 8-4-1-2 4+30 50% 62% 87%

Jockey Battula, Aparna Weight 112 DST 55-7-5-3 12% 21% 27% W/Trn 18-9-3-1 @ 50% 66% 72%

Owner Brooklyn Farm S/OC 16-4-0-5 25% 25% 56%

Trainer Cartagena, Julio S/OC 24-4-1-6 16% 20% 45% W/Own 130-34-18-25 26% 40% 59%

Date

Trk

Surface

Dist

Odds

Class

Purse

Jockey

Weight

1 ST 1/4

2 ND 1/4

3 RD 1/4+

ALL 1/4

28Jan12

GP

D-FST

6f

28.70

STKS

150K

Jara F

117

8 - 22.71

7 - 22.52

5 - 25.35

5 - 1:09.56

07Jan12

TAM

D-FST

6f

1.60*

STKS

60K

Rocco J Jr

120

7 - 22.14

7 - 23.02

5 - 25.67

5 - 1:10.08

04Dec11

GP

D-FST

7f

3.00

STKS

60K

Gonzalez S

117

7 - 22.70

7 - 22.68

3 - 37.00

3 - 1:21.73

13Sep11

DEL

D-FST

6f

2.20

OC 60K

42K

Gonzalez S

122

3 - 22.01

2 - 22.58

1 - 24.80

1 - 1:09.35

Workouts:

Aug 27 3f DEL 38.00 9/11

Aug 27 3f DEL 38.00 9/11

Aug 20 3f DEL 36.40 3/5

L1S 45+D 52-8-10-7 15% 34% 48% L1S 45+D If Fav 9-1-3-2 11% 44% 66% L1S 45+D W/Own 29-5-4-5 17% 31% 48%

WLR4S 8-1-1-1 12% 25% 37% WLR4S If Fav 2-1-0-0 50% 50% 50% WLR4S W/Own 2-0-1-0 0% 50% 50%

TRN LAYOFF 4 RACE FORM CYCLE:	TRN CLAIM 4 RACE FORM CYCLE:	TRN WLR 4 RACE FORM CYCLE:	TRN DEBUT 4 RACE FORM CYCLE:
L4 R/S 50% 66% 66% 45 Days +		WLR4 R/S 12% 25% 37%
L3 R/S 10% 26% 47% 45 Days +		WLR3 R/S 29% 41% 41%
L2 R/S 34% 45% 54% 45 Days +		WLR2 R/S 32% 46% 64%
L1 R/S 15% 34% 48% 45 Days +		WLR1 R/S 30% 51% 61%

6 6/1

Horse Afleet Lass 5Y M Northern Afleet/It's Freezing RR 24-10-4-3 @ 41% 58% 70% DST 7-4-1-1 4+30 57% 71% 85% TRK 5-2-0-1 40% 40% 60%

Jockey Velazquez, John Weight 114 DST 716-157-116-105 21% 38% 52% W/Trn 1064-287-165-137 26% 42% 55%

Owner Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck) S/OC 0-0-0-0 0% 0% 0%

Trainer Pletcher, Todd A S/OC 132-28-19-23 21% 35% 53% W/Own 1-1-0-0 100% 100% 100%

Date

Trk

Surface

Dist

Odds

Class

Purse

Jockey

Weight

1 ST 1/4

2 ND 1/4

3 RD 1/4+

ALL 1/4

25Jan12

GP

D-FST

6f

0.10*

OC 25K

32K

Velazquez J

121

1 - 22.73

1 - 22.73

1 - 24.47

1 - 1:09.93

24Dec11

GP

D-FST

6f

1.30*

OC 80K

60K

Bocachica O

121

1 - 22.67

1 - 23.01

1 - 24.27

1 - 1:09.95

05Nov11

CRC

D-FST

6f

0.10*

SALW 16K

17.8K

Bocachica O

123

1 - 22.03

1 - 23.27

1 - 25.62

1 - 1:10.92

14Oct11

CRC

D-FST

5 1/2f

0.60*

SALW 20K

18.9K

Bocachica O

120

1 - 22.69

1 - 23.68

1 - 18.51

1 - 1:04.87

Workouts:

Sep 15 5f CRC 1:03.60 1/1

Jul 29 5f CRC 1:02.20 2/5

May 22 4f CRC 49.80 20/78

L1S 45+D 243-57-40-38 23% 39% 55% L1S 45+D If Fav 99-35-19-13 4+30 35% 54% 67% L1S 45+D W/Own 0-0-0-0 0% 0% 0%

WLR1S 227-70-36-37 4+30 30% 46% 62% WLR1S If Fav 106-51-18-14 @ 48% 65% 78% WLR1S W/Own 0-0-0-0 0% 0% 0%

TRN LAYOFF 4 RACE FORM CYCLE:	TRN CLAIM 4 RACE FORM CYCLE:	TRN WLR 4 RACE FORM CYCLE:	TRN DEBUT 4 RACE FORM CYCLE:
L4 R/S 36% 44% 55% 45 Days +		WLR4 R/S 26% 43% 64%
L3 R/S 33% 44% 61% 45 Days +		WLR3 R/S 18% 36% 53%
L2 R/S 30% 50% 64% 45 Days +		WLR2 R/S 23% 38% 54%
L1 R/S 23% 39% 55% 45 Days +		WLR1 R/S 30% 46% 62%

[Easy-Rider 66]

Tough race. A lot of horses with similar running times at 6F. The #6 has won 4 in a row, while the #4 has 1 win. Can't see the #6 going off at 6/1 based on his track record. However, it looks like there is a lot of early speed in the race, so it may set up for a closer. Tough call.

[daoilman]

The 6th race at Gulfstream, 3/30/12. Lets look at specifics on the #4, then compare them to the #6. Below the individual stats for the #4 horse. Tracks (6)

Gulfstream 8-4-1-2 50% 62% 87%

Classes (4)

Claiming 8-4-1-0 50% 62% 62% Optional Claiming 12-5-1-3 41% 50% 75% Stakes 5-1-0-1 20% 20% 40% Starter Allowance 1-1-0-0 100% 100% 100%

Distances (7)

Route races removed 5 Furlongs 2-1-0-0 50% 50% 50% 6 1/2 Furlongs 1-1-0-0 100% 100% 100% 6 Furlongs 9-5-0-2 55% 55% 77% 7 Furlongs 2-1-0-1 50% 50% 100%

Surfaces (2)

All Weather 4-2-1-0 50% 75% 75% Dirt 22-9-1-4 40% 45%

[daoilman]

And now the stats for the #6 horse. Tracks (2)

Calder Race Course 19-8-4-2 42% 63% 73% Gulfstream 5-2-0-1 40% 40% 60%

Classes (7)

Allowance 3-0-0-0 0% 0% 0% Claiming 7-2-1-3 28% 42% 85% Maiden Claiming 3-1-1-0 33% 66% 66% Maiden Special Weight 1-0-0-0 0% 0% 0% Optional Claiming 4-3-1-0 75% 100% 100% Stakes 3-1-1-0 33% 66% 66% Starter Allowance 3-3-0-0 100% 100% 100%

Distances (3)

5 1/2 Furlongs 3-1-1-0 33% 66% 66% 5 Furlongs 14-5-2-2 35% 50% 64% 6 Furlongs 7-4-1-1 57% 71% 85%

Surfaces (2)

Dirt 12-6-2-2 50% 66% 83% Turf 12-4-2-1 33% 50% 58%

[daoilman]

It appears that the #6 would like to race at Calder verses Opt. Claimers or Starter Allowance company, the #4 on the other hand likes straight Claimers at Gulfstream. Please keep in mind that this is only one category of stats we looking at, but that in this view it seems that this race is tailored for the #4.

If we were to look at other categories we might look at the stats for the connection of both horses.
The connections on the #4 look encouraging, they're 21% win rate at the track, 27% in Claiming races, 29% at 6 furlongs, and 27% on a dirt surface, as for the #6, well, we really can't tell how they fare because we have no stats on them.

Not trying to tout the #4, just saying that as a fair priced favorite he may offer value.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Good points. According to e-ponies and looking at Bain's running lines there is plenty of horses who like to be on the front end. Looks like the #4 may be more of a closing type, so it may set up nice for the 4.

[daoilman]

Friday, March 30, 2012
Track Condition:FastTurf Condition:Firm
Results for Race 6

1st	4	IT'S NEVER TO LATE	$8.60	$3.80	$2.40
2nd	5	RAGING SIX		$6.20	$2.60
3rd	6	AFLEET LASS			$2.40
4th	8	BLACK DIAMOND CAT

[daoilman]

What do you think folks, should we try to dutch out another winner today using Bain stats?

[Easy-Rider 66]

Bain's got a lot of 4+30's and automatics for The Gulfstream card today. Could make for some interesting handicapping.

[daoilman]

I would like to get away from posting graphics of the different horses stats, instead I would like to post a link to the race in question and then a short write up of what looks good and what doesn't, I'll leave it to the reader to investigate further...

Lets start with the 8th race today at the Fairgrounds, the following link should center on the only "automatic" in the race, Sunday's Child trained by Albert Stall.

http://edbain.com/pp/Fair Grounds/3-31-2012/8#4

If stats are examined with regards towards the connections and the horse itself it appears this horse holds a distinct advantage over the competition. Items to examine would be the individual stats for the trainer, rider and horse, and to be more specific how each of the afore mentioned fared in the following four categories, track, class, distance and surface. Add to those stats the 4+30 stats and we might have a bet.

The best scenario would be if the #9 takes money based on it's high Beyer numbers from sprints, thus creating co-favorites at odds of 3/2 or above, in this case the #1 would be the bet (any odds below 3/2 is no bet).

Good luck punters.

[daoilman]

The following would be a balls move by my modest standards, but using the #1 Sunday's Child as a single in the last leg of a pick3, I would play 1$ tickets that would read..

race #6- - the 3,6,7,8,9
race #7- - the 3,5,6,7
race #8- - the 1
total cost 20$

As a back up, for another 10$

race #6- - the 3,6,7,8,9
race #7- - the 3,5
race #8- - the 1

Total cost for bet 30$

Lets see how this works out.

[Arletta]

What do you think about the 2 horse in that race?

[daoilman]

What do you think about the 2 horse in that race?

Bellamy's Fire, trained by Edward Johnston?

[Arletta]

Bellamy's Fire, trained by Edward Johnston?

yes