^ Yeah CC had good trips, but part of the reason is the way he runs imo. He moves easily when the Rider asks him to. And Slim question for you? Are you still sold on Tonalist being the best 3 year old? You were pushing him heavy a couple of weeks ago, but have not seen you mention him recently.
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to quote you Harthebar only giving my Opinion and ask question
i'm looking at calif chrome s first 5 races,,,they were average
realy 4 out of 5 was on the polly. he was also only 2
if you look at the history of other winners of the triple crown, he isnt even close to most of them
How many years ago was this? IMO none of the stock today is close to what it was then.
i just think he had it too easy his last two, he won,,,i give him all the credit,....he had two perfect trips
Could it be his ability that put him in a position to do this?
i think 5-6 have....i think there is 5-6 horses that can beat him....even general a rod look at his last race...ride on curlin....medal count
A Rod I like think he can pick up the pieces for sure , as I think he had trouble in last 2. What happend in the Preakness to ROC that will be different this time?
2 months time can make a difference
sure can they can improve by several lengths overnight that makes them tough to cap.Comment -
If you want to see it you can watch the Kentucky Derby replay where he ate dirt for a mile and made a sustained prolonged move after getting squeezed and shuffled and before getting cut off by Danza.
As for the rail that is a huge plus.Saving every inch of ground is paramount.He is faster early than the 4 horses outside of him after CC .I see CC clearing him rather easily with Samraat in post 7 and Medal Count on the rail in the next wave.
Why do you think he is just a turf/poly horse?Clockers have an eye for it and every one of them says he gets over dirt beautifully.
I'm not saying he is a cinch ,he is going to be a big price but I try to find horses that are better than they look and I am 99% sure he is better than he looks on paper.Comment -
Sure I have to admit Chrome has had perfect trips, he has because he is such a handy horse.
I dont know I dont play California racing, I know they were the 1st to offer the early pick 5 low takeout wager. Dont think you can say the SA early pick 5 is superior to the Belmont Pick 5. The key to the bet is defeating favorites. A few months ago I hit a pick 5 with the 2nd choice winning every race in the sequence and it paid nearly 700-1. Look at pick 5 payouts as opposed to the pick 4 payouts. Massive difference almost always.Comment -
i think thats a little unfair ,, saying tonalist beat wicked strong ....come on..that was in feb...and at gulfstream, wicked strong was gone had no shot once they made the turn....and i mean the first turn...any race at gulfstream..you have to toss.....thats like me saying chrome got his ass kicked by kobes back, i dont think you can judge any horse off a performance 4 months ago, do you know how much changing they do, growing up, so much can change in 4 months......and how did he win by default, social ran a hell of a race..........not one of these horses ever ran this far, so to make a horse 3/5 was so much unknown.....is crazy............i'm not knocking your thinking.....but dont you think chrome had the perfect trips.....did you see roc trip in the derby...? yea chrome can win......but i'm saying he wont be in the money....top 3 not 4.....every race at gulfstream..in feb jan i just cant count,,,,,Comment -
i dont play santa anita pick 5 much either, ,,,but i really believe ..they pay better of what i saw.......a few months ago i hit belmont pick 5 races 1-5..lol then hit late pick 4 races 6-9 9 straight.....i thought todays pick 5 paid great ..didnt do the math but it was 733 for 1.00 i really like to compare........i take that back...belmont i agree ..i was thinking aqueduct.........i want your pick 5 tomorrow,,, and i will send you mine....ok .Comment -
Your right I shouldnt have bashed him, I dont like knocking longshots in general because theres no point in it. If someone likes a longshot they should bet it. Only reason I did is because hart mentioned him. But since you asked....
Turf/Poly runners take to the Churchill surface much better than a track like Big Sandy. The best races of his career were on turf overcoming a extremly slow pace, the fig wasnt great but still quite impressive. Also the Grade 3 win at Keenland was strong where he got a 94 beyer. Next race got the same fig at Keenland while finishing 3rd.
His 3 dirt races just dont level up with these. 86 beyer in the Derby. 84 at Gulfstream. 59 last year. So I have come to my assesment that he is a better turf/poly horse based on what he has done on the racetrack. If you want to make excuses for his Derby performance that is fine.That's what happens in horse racing closers pass tiring front runners. It was what it was, not like he was the only one with a poor trip. The Belmont generally doesnt play well to deep closers.
Certainly wouldnt be the 1st time Im wrong. If he wins or even hits the board I will congragulate you and move on.
Easyrider I will answer your Tonalist question in a bit.Comment -
yes Harthebar when I refer to hitting the board it is in top 3 and I find it hard to believe chrome wont be in it.Comment -
Yea, I hit the pick 5 today paid giant considering what came in. 4-1 shot was the biggest price. Singled the big favorite on the end in the 5th race. 733-1. Amazing payout really.
I dont have a planned pick 5 right now for tommorow. The key is to find a single regardless of the price, sometimes 2 singles if possible. I usually make multiple tickets. Looks very difficult no clear cut standout in any race unless you consider Social Inclusion a standout in the 5th. No point in posting a ticket I dont feel that great about.Comment -
im just curious, you said your looking for a single, i hope you dont do what so many do.......they find a single that is a lock....or seems to be...like a 2/5 horse or 4/5........i never do it......i wont toss it, but i will put another horse in there......i just think its a waste keying a 3/5 in a pick 4 or 5, im not asking now....im sayuing if you like one tomorrow then post it........maybe i will combine.........Comment -
TONALIST!!!!
I am pretty much married to taking him here. He was my early KY Derby horse back in January. Ended up having a slight setback the week of the Wood Memorial so he didnt have a chance to get in. Who knows if he didnt have that setback he may be the one going for the Triple Crown tommorow. Tonalist has the best jockey in the country as well as the best long distance trainer in the country. He is bred to thrive at the distance. He has only raced 4 times but has never had a horse come from behind and pass him in the stretch. Pretty sure no other horse can claim that. To me he is the clear 2nd likliest winner of the Belmont Stakes.
I guess the knocks are he won the Peter Pan over an off race track. My counter to that is the connections really didnt know if he would even handle it. He also ran 2 90+ beyers on fast tracks at Gulfstream Park. What concerns me the most is his unexperience and the wide post draw. I am hoping Rosario sends out of the gate to gain position and then settles.
Regardless of his result here I think he will have a brilliant career as he continues to progress. He is one of the few Non "Made" horses today the sky is indeed the limit for him!!Comment -
I have no problem whatsoever singling a favorite. You seen how well these pick 5's can pay with a big favorite in the sequence. I look for a single so I can afford to go deeper in the other legs. Im not looking to single the biggest favorite though no. I take it on a case by case basis. The pick 5 has become my favorite and main wager over the past few months, best value bet in racing.Comment -
I'm skeptical of the "Turf/Poly horses take to Churchill Downs " that was never heard of until Animal Kingdom won the Derby.He ran pretty damn good at Pimlico too and OK at Belmont considering.Before he won it was so and so can't win the derby because he is a poly horse.
Medal Count is not a deep closer.The few times R Albarado took him back was because of a far outside post draw.I mean he tracked the pace in 3rd behind Wildcat Red and General A Rod at GP no less.He is way more tactical than he gets credit for.
Don't want to get into Beyers
He is fast enough on what I useComment -
Ok guys on parkway. Mile marker. 72. That's a jersey thing. So anyone else going up .
Over. Or down....to belmont.park.Comment -
How about Moreno in 9th ?Comment -
Undrafted in 4th is Wards only entry today?Comment -
I think its going to be goldenscents guys.....I really feel they primed him right for this... I can see him going super fast....think palace will lay off him ..... And hope he quits. ..if so palace wins.Comment -
bel R1 #2 bernardo (3-1)R2 #7 legend (3-1)R3 #8 norumbega (6-1)Comment -
OK guys, I don't know what to do anymore. I really really like CC in the Belmont. I think that Victor will give him a super ride. He is also riding the 5-Ever Rider in R3 at 1 1/2. Hopefully, he will gain some sense in terms of timing. I read somewhere before that the Belmont Stake is as much a rider's race as a horse race. Victor has ridden in the Belmont Stakes before and he is riding Ever Rider in race 3. On paper I really don't see a horse that can beat him. So if I have to pick a horse that might beat him, I would have to pick a horse that doesn't make any sense at all. That is the 6-Matuszak. I mean why is this horse even running in a triple crown race?? He barely broke his maiden in his first race and hasn't won since. Why in the world is he competing for the biggest race of his life so far with that form?? So I am gonna pick him as the shocker if CC doesn't win. My reasons to back him are: 1-trainer Bill Mott, 2-jockey Mike Smith, 3-sire and dam Bernardini (out of AP Indy) and Golden Sonata (out of Mr. Prospector), 4- odds ML 30-1, will probably go off at 90-1. Matuszak will more than likely to run last, but if anything is gonna shock CC, might as well be a complete surprise!! Key: 2-CC, with 1-Medal Count, 9-Wicked Strong. $20W on 6-Matuszak.Comment -
Good start
Race 1
#1 Away Game
#4 Lieutenant Seany O
#8 Wabbajack
$2 Exacta Paid 75.00Comment -
Santa anita race 7 little proffesor
Woodbine race 4 tesseron
Gulfstream race 7 valid concept
Monmouth rogue last race 12
Delaware snuggly bear race 7
Santa anita w Giles race 11Comment -
bad ride on the 3 in race 2 however not realy a big day jockComment -
MTH race 10 #9Comment -
Belmont
Race 4
Upgrade.
Race 5
Kobes back.
Race 6
House rules
Race 7
Closed hatches and beholder
Race 8
Somali lemonade
Race 9
Goldenscents
Race 10
Real solutionComment -
Wow, SI is bet down to 1-1Comment -
binkComment
