matrix im going to, ill try to see you up there ...ill send message thru sbr site..right here
Originally posted by matrix1022
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belmont day 6-7-14.pdf PP'SG W HAMMER BELMONT RACE 7 HAS BEEN GETTING BETTER FINDING HIS FORM
STARDOM RACE 6 BELMONT LIKE LAST RACE
ANOTHER BLUE CHURCHILL RACE 8TH
GREEN TAG SANTA ANITA 8TH
Legally Bay is scheduled to run on 6/5/2014 in Race 2 at Belmont.
ALPA SLEW DELAWARE RACE 6
Grit and Grace and
Marathon Lady is entered today at CHURCHILL DOWNS. 7thComment -
Mike i was looking, and looking, i think goldenscents has a really good chance, i know you like palice malice but the odds on goldenscents morning line 10-1 i'm sure he wont stay there..but i have to believe a mile is his race..or he just totally loves calif track...Comment -
Belmont
Saturday June 7th
Race 1
#1 Away Game
#4 Lieutenant Seany O
#8 Wabbajack
Race 2
#1 Life in Shambles
#4 Kid Cruz
#8 Pass the Coffee
Race 3
#3 Micromanage
#2 Ground Transport
#4 Cat Burglar
L/S Bomb #7 Bigger Is Bettor 30-1
Race 4
#9 Positive Side
#10 Marchman
#8 Ben's Cat
? #3 Marriedtothemusic First time turf could get a nice price
Race 5
#3 Havana *BB
#10 Kobe's Back
#4 Meadowood
Race 6
#8 My Miss Sophia // Tried to beat her but i cant
#3 Fiftyshadesofgold
#6 Tiz So Sweet 20-1
Race 7
#1 Close Hatches
#5 Beholder
#6 Princess of Sylmar
#3 Belle Gallantey 30-1 Best chance out of the others to hit exotics
Race 8
Such a hard race feel like a longshot is going to get in the money
#6 Stephanie's Kitten
#4 Somali Lemondade
#10 Better Lucky
L/S Hopefuls #1 Ready Signal 30-1
#7 Unlimited Budget 20-1
Race 9
#10 Clearly Now
#1 Palace Malice
#4 Goldencents
#5 Moreno
Race 10
#7 Five Iron 15-1 Not much speed in here can he repeat his last race and go wire to wire?
#4 Grandeur
#5 Boisterous
Race 11
Cant pick California Chrome on top no value
#4 Commanding Curve- Really like this horse here, hes gotten better every race, always closing, should be able to handle to extra distance. Is fresh and working great
#7 Samraat- Great value here not sure why he is 20-1. He has the best last three races besides CC. Great chance to hit the board IMO
#3 Matterhorn- Showed great promise his first race beating fellow first time starter Tonalist. Has had bad trips since. If you like Tonalist at 8-1 you can get Matterhorn at 30-1 Tonalist is not that much if any better then him.
My ticket for belmont
4,7/2,4,7/1,2,3,4,7
Race 12
#12 Mr. Jenny
#4 North Star Boy
#7 Ghurair
Race 13
This race is a crap shoot
#9 Slan Abhaile 30-1 Has not impressed so far as a 4 year old, but if he can run back to his form last year (which not be so far fetched because hes working like a champ) Definitely a player here
#14 Dighton 20-1 Never worst then second
#11 Celebrator 10-1 Got better every race minus the last when he hit the gate and still won
Or the two faves #5 In Trouble and #8 Pazolini could blow them away but that's no fun right?Comment -
bel
R1 #3 sunset glow (3-1)
R2 #3 reggie d (4-1)
#2 patriotic duty (20-1) smaller
R3 #1 whatabouthonor (3-1)
R4 #4 magma (15-1)
R5 #5 confessa (10-1)
rest tomorrowComment -
bel R7 #12 wine burglar (7-2)R8 #4 father johns.. (5-1) #7 bluegrass springs (20-1)R9 #7 palace (8-1)R10 #6 irish mission (8-1Comment -
Sky Blazer is entered to run on June 6, 2014, at BELMONT PARK.10th steal bad ride last
Nola Girl is entered on June 6, 2014 at EVANGELINE DOWNS.8th
Sam's Sonic is entered to run on June 6, 2014, at PIMLICO.7th
Tru Greek is entered to run on June 6, 2014, at PIMLICO.7thComment -
Dark Timbers is scheduled to run on 6/6/2014 in Race 6 at Santa Anita been geting better and better
Captain's Game is scheduled to run on 6/6/2014 in Race 5 at Calder. will make amends
Dynamite Wind is scheduled to run on 6/6/2014 in Race 3 at Los Alamitos bad out of gate
Discreetly Elusive is scheduled to run on 6/6/2014 in Race 8 at Monmouth Park
belmont day 6-7-14.pdf PP'S
BELMONT DAY PPS
Comment -
Saturday First Post 11:35 AM EST
Belmont
Race 1
8-Wabbajack 8-1 - Ran a race that would probably win this breaking his maiden in almost an identical situation last year.Off a few month break ,moving from Gulfstream to Belmont ,switching from Rosario to Maragh, and it was at this distance.
1-Away Game 12-1 - Might be the biggest overlay in the field at his ML.Ran a race that would be competitive 2 starts back and then tried turf to no avail.Violette is excellent turf to dirt.
7-Forever Thing 7-2 - Is the wild card off such a long break but Pletcher always seems too have them ready in spots like this on big race days.
Race 2
3-Effinex 20-1 - Goes for bad connections and a so so jock or he would be 4 or 5-1 instead of 20-1.If you block out the trainer this guy is a huge overlay.
8-Pass The Coffee 12-1 - Gets a big switch from Arroyo to Cornelio after original jock gave him no chance to win last race by diving to the inside instead of getting a clear run outside.Finished that race best of all once clear and nothing between him and Life In Shambles who is 4-1.
5-Misconnect 4-1 - Another Pletcher and this one trying a route for the first time.However the 1 1/16 races at Belmont are only 1 turn so it is just a really long sprint.That is the reason I am against Kid Cruz here as the favorite.He looks like a 2 turn horse to me.
Race 3(Brooklyn)
1-Eriugena 10-1 - After 11 OK runs on turf/synth this one really turned into a race horse when put on dirt 2 starts back.
4-Cat Burgler 5-2 - This marathon is just as much a guessing game as the Belmont Stakes with only 1 of these horses having run this distance on dirt in Ever Rider and he seems slow.This one is fastest it's just a matter of if he can go this far.
3-Micromanage 7-2 - Really tossing between him and 8-Norumbega 6-1 as both seem about equal.Will see how the race gets bet but will go with Micro preliminary.
Race 4(Jaipur)
9-Positive Side 8-1 - Has been closing fast at up to a furlong shorter than this the last 3 races.Getting lasix again for the first time since the middle of 2012 which was 14 starts ago.Nakatani and Forster haven't teamed up in a while but they are 7 for 18 together.
6-Undrafted 5-1 - Was also closing fast with Positive Side last race at 5f and could be real good at 6f.
5-Anyriderill Do 20-1 - Along the same lines as the 9 and 6 should appreciate step up to 6f but this guy was going best of all late in his 5f race.
8-Ben's Cat 5-2 and 10-Marchman 3-1 look formidable but a case can be made against.Ben's Cat hasn't seen a field like this in a while and Marchman has gotten used to going all out for 5 or 5 1/2 furlongs.Maybe he hits a wall going 6f.
Either 9,8,10 or 9,6,5 or 9/5,6,8,10
Race 5(Woody Stephens)
1-Bayern 5-1 - With all the hype on Social Inclusion this race has good prices everywhere.Baffert is arguably the best trainer there is at turning horses back from a route to a sprint.He also has great results blinkers on .
3-Havana 6-1 - Was one of the best 2 year olds last year and now goes 2nd off a long break.
Then you have a bunch of bombs like 7-Tonito M. 20-1 , 13-Pure Sensation 30-1 , 8-Favorite Tale 12-1 , and 12-Top Fortitude 20-1.
Race 6(Acorn)
8-My Miss Sophia 6-5 - It would be pretty unreal if she gave Pletcher his 5th win on the card through the first 6 races but he really is stacked and this one is his most likely winner.Would be superstar status if not for Untapable.
6-Tiz So Sweet 20-1 - Is just about as fast as anyone minus MMS and Mott is very good 2nd time lasix.Just looking for new shooters as MMS has already dominated the obvious alternatives Sweet Reason and Unbridled Forever.
9-Artemis Agrotera 5-1 - Was looking at this one as a possible chance to beat the favorite before the MLs came out and thought I was going to get a big price.As the 2nd choice it's not really worth it but she has to be doing phenominal for Hushion to enter in this race off 217 day break.
2-House Rules 12-1 - Steadily improving filly might get the same bumb for Jerkens that Wicked Strong did getting back home after a trip to Florida for the winter.
Race 7(Ogden Phipps)
A horrible betting race as I will be stunned if 1-Closed Hatches, 6-Princess Of Sylmar , or 5-Beholder don't win and probably fill out the exacta too.I would put them 6-1-5 in order of preference giving Pletcher his 6th good shot in 7 races.
Race 8(Just A Game)
6-Stephanie's Kitten 4-1 - Take the price and run if you can get the ML.She is by far the best horse in here off last years form.Is being disrespected because of her last race where she had no where to run in the stretch.
3-Dame Marie 20-1 - Had to swing wide while the winner Coffee Clique got a rail trip under Castellano last out.Despite being wide she still made the lead in the stretch making her move into the teeth of some very fast internal fractions.If I make a win bet she is it.
5-Coffee Clique 10-1 - Picking her mainly because I don't like the 2 favorites.Dame Marie had a much tougher time last race.
2-Strathnaver 20-1 - Can go 4 deep trying to beat 2 faves.Worth a look cutting back to her shortest distance in a very long time.
Race 9(Met Mile)
1-Palace Malice 8-5 - His last race makes him very tough in here.IMO he is the best horse in the country right now.If he gets beat it's likely to be because of a rough trip from the rail.Yet another in an amazing line up for Pletcher on the card.
4-Goldencents 10-1 - A lot of speed in the race so will have to have some luck pacewise.
13-Shakin' It Up 6-1 - He ran argiably the best race of anyone on Kentucky Derby Day andis one of very few in here fast enough on his best to push the fave.
3-Scarly Charly 50-1 - Again I am a sucker for Hushion horses and no way this one only has a 50-1 chance.Hushion is excellent with all applicable angles and as for the horse he has faced some decent competition in California before switching barns before this race.
10-Clearly Now 10-1 - Not recommending going 5 deep unless keying the fave in straight exotics but I just know the one time I toss this horse he is going to beat me.Think I have been on him for just about every one of his dirt races.
Race 10(Manhattan)
8-Real Solution 5-1 - Last time he ran at this distance he won the Arlington Million via DQ over a very good foreign invader in The Apache.It was also 3rd from a layoff which is the same today.
4-Grandeur 5-1 - Also a deep closer in a pretty paceless race but not sure Five Iron wants to go this far and he might just muddle the pace enough to wear out Imagining.
2-Hey Leroy 12-1 and 9-Kaigun 15-1 get no respect after running just as good as anyone their last few turf races.
3-Rookie Sensation 12-1 - Would need him to drift up in price a little but he caught my eye originally when looking at the pps first glance because of his pace figs.Not sure how to play this yet maybe just pick 4 of them and box of key the 8,4 on top.
Race 11(Belmont Stakes)
1-Medal Count 20-1 - Don't think we've seen how good he is yet after 2 eventful trips in the Derby and Bluegrass.He will stay 1 1/2 miles and has a perfect grinding style clicking off :24s.Drosselmeyeresque.
9-Wicked Strong 6-1 - Have literally been on this horse since his very first start and would be again if not for the price discrepancy between him and Medal Count.All my tickets will have 1,9/ABCD though.He is a beast and if not for the 20 draw followed by a terrible trip would have made Chrome look mortal at the least.
2-California Chrome 3-5 - Frankly I don't give a shyt if he wins the Triple Crown and even worse that would mean I lose money.I am a figures guy and he isn't even in the same zipcode as Smarty Jones and Big Brown let alone the horses who did complete the Triple Crown.I also don't think it will do anything for the popularity of the game.As long as the stooges who run the sport state by state are in charge the downward spiral will continue.They need to have complete transparency by disclosing all vet records, adopt a testing protocal to eliminate move up drugs, reduce take out , provide free pps , have a universal governing body , etc...etc...
4-Commanding Curve 15-1 - Back to the horses and hard to envision this one not running late but probably too late.
Also Matuszak 30-1 and Commisioner 20-1 are the others for clunk up 3rd or 4th.Ride On Curlin and General A Rod figure but willing to stand against them trying their 3rd race in 5 weeks.Think Tonalist is a big underlay and will let him beat me too.
1,9/2,4,6,8
Race 12
3-Inchcape 12-1 - Fits as good as anyone in a very tough race to handicap.He has been facing some tough horses last few starts and finishing just behind a couple that show up in graded stakes.
11-Shining Copper 8-1 - Has been off a while and was pretty good when he left so he could demolish this field if he improved during his time away.
4-North Star Boy 10-1 - Seems like he doesn't like to win but always runs Ok enough to hit the board since coming to America.
2-Arctic North 10-1 - Also coming from a pretty long layoff and could be tough if he improved.I can't really separate these top 4 and could flip flop any of them.
8-Developer 20-1 - Might just go 4 deep but if I go 5 with a key I'll throw this one in.His synthetic form could win this and being by Dynaformer I have to think his one bad turf race can be forgiven.
Race 13
8-Pazolini 3-1 - McLaughlin not represented that much on the card but this one is the most likely winner in this race imo.He is the best trainer at getting horses to progress every single race they run.If this one progresses then it's a race for 2nd.
1-Kingsford Drive 15-1 - Will be overlooked on the step up in class from a 40k claimer to a optional claimer but he ran ok at this level before and might inherit an easy pace setting trip.B. Brown has been on fire at this Belmont meet too.
2-Eastwood 8-1 - Also figures to be up around the pace through easy fractions and could still be getting better in only his 5th start and 2nd from a layoff.Is the final Pletcher on a card where he has a horse in every single race and a good chance at winning in at least 10 of them.WOW!!!
GL
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^Thx Mike. Are you doing any DW contests tomorrow?Comment -
Thnx mike, we have a couple same thoughts and some totally different lol but that's what makes picking horses fun right.Comment -
Yeah probably but don't let me stop you.When playing a contest I could use anyone of the 3-5 horses I picked per race.Fields are wide open and the ones that aren't I'll still probably try and beat the chalk.Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66
Yeah I saw yours beforehand and agreed with a lot.Many ways to go though on this card.Originally posted by Heppy10
I liked Slan Abhaile too at 30-1 a little just wanted to get done and didn't go 4 deep last race.Comment -
^ Sounds good. Probably will do the $1500 game and use TF to narrow down your picks. GL.Comment -
Mike.......well as far as your comment on calif.chrome .......goes.......where is Cal Ripken when you need him, i,m sorry but that was the first thing i thought of, when i read your comment on CC...i hope you get what i mean...and again thanks so much for the input and timeOriginally posted by mikemcaSaturday First Post 11:35 AM EST
Belmont
Race 1
8-Wabbajack 8-1 - Ran a race that would probably win this breaking his maiden in almost an identical situation last year.Off a few month break ,moving from Gulfstream to Belmont ,switching from Rosario to Maragh, and it was at this distance.
1-Away Game 12-1 - Might be the biggest overlay in the field at his ML.Ran a race that would be competitive 2 starts back and then tried turf to no avail.Violette is excellent turf to dirt.
7-Forever Thing 7-2 - Is the wild card off such a long break but Pletcher always seems too have them ready in spots like this on big race days.
Race 2
3-Effinex 20-1 - Goes for bad connections and a so so jock or he would be 4 or 5-1 instead of 20-1.If you block out the trainer this guy is a huge overlay.
8-Pass The Coffee 12-1 - Gets a big switch from Arroyo to Cornelio after original jock gave him no chance to win last race by diving to the inside instead of getting a clear run outside.Finished that race best of all once clear and nothing between him and Life In Shambles who is 4-1.
5-Misconnect 4-1 - Another Pletcher and this one trying a route for the first time.However the 1 1/16 races at Belmont are only 1 turn so it is just a really long sprint.That is the reason I am against Kid Cruz here as the favorite.He looks like a 2 turn horse to me.
Race 3(Brooklyn)
1-Eriugena 10-1 - After 11 OK runs on turf/synth this one really turned into a race horse when put on dirt 2 starts back.
4-Cat Burgler 5-2 - This marathon is just as much a guessing game as the Belmont Stakes with only 1 of these horses having run this distance on dirt in Ever Rider and he seems slow.This one is fastest it's just a matter of if he can go this far.
3-Micromanage 7-2 - Really tossing between him and 8-Norumbega 6-1 as both seem about equal.Will see how the race gets bet but will go with Micro preliminary.
Race 4(Jaipur)
9-Positive Side 8-1 - Has been closing fast at up to a furlong shorter than this the last 3 races.Getting lasix again for the first time since the middle of 2012 which was 14 starts ago.Nakatani and Forster haven't teamed up in a while but they are 7 for 18 together.
6-Undrafted 5-1 - Was also closing fast with Positive Side last race at 5f and could be real good at 6f.
5-Anyriderill Do 20-1 - Along the same lines as the 9 and 6 should appreciate step up to 6f but this guy was going best of all late in his 5f race.
8-Ben's Cat 5-2 and 10-Marchman 3-1 look formidable but a case can be made against.Ben's Cat hasn't seen a field like this in a while and Marchman has gotten used to going all out for 5 or 5 1/2 furlongs.Maybe he hits a wall going 6f.
Either 9,8,10 or 9,6,5 or 9/5,6,8,10
Race 5(Woody Stephens)
1-Bayern 5-1 - With all the hype on Social Inclusion this race has good prices everywhere.Baffert is arguably the best trainer there is at turning horses back from a route to a sprint.He also has great results blinkers on .
3-Havana 6-1 - Was one of the best 2 year olds last year and now goes 2nd off a long break.
Then you have a bunch of bombs like 7-Tonito M. 20-1 , 13-Pure Sensation 30-1 , 8-Favorite Tale 12-1 , and 12-Top Fortitude 20-1.
Race 6(Acorn)
8-My Miss Sophia 6-5 - It would be pretty unreal if she gave Pletcher his 5th win on the card through the first 6 races but he really is stacked and this one is his most likely winner.Would be superstar status if not for Untapable.
6-Tiz So Sweet 20-1 - Is just about as fast as anyone minus MMS and Mott is very good 2nd time lasix.Just looking for new shooters as MMS has already dominated the obvious alternatives Sweet Reason and Unbridled Forever.
9-Artemis Agrotera 5-1 - Was looking at this one as a possible chance to beat the favorite before the MLs came out and thought I was going to get a big price.As the 2nd choice it's not really worth it but she has to be doing phenominal for Hushion to enter in this race off 217 day break.
2-House Rules 12-1 - Steadily improving filly might get the same bumb for Jerkens that Wicked Strong did getting back home after a trip to Florida for the winter.
Race 7(Ogden Phipps)
A horrible betting race as I will be stunned if 1-Closed Hatches, 6-Princess Of Sylmar , or 5-Beholder don't win and probably fill out the exacta too.I would put them 6-1-5 in order of preference giving Pletcher his 6th good shot in 7 races.
Race 8(Just A Game)
6-Stephanie's Kitten 4-1 - Take the price and run if you can get the ML.She is by far the best horse in here off last years form.Is being disrespected because of her last race where she had no where to run in the stretch.
3-Dame Marie 20-1 - Had to swing wide while the winner Coffee Clique got a rail trip under Castellano last out.Despite being wide she still made the lead in the stretch making her move into the teeth of some very fast internal fractions.If I make a win bet she is it.
5-Coffee Clique 10-1 - Picking her mainly because I don't like the 2 favorites.Dame Marie had a much tougher time last race.
2-Strathnaver 20-1 - Can go 4 deep trying to beat 2 faves.Worth a look cutting back to her shortest distance in a very long time.
Race 9(Met Mile)
1-Palace Malice 8-5 - His last race makes him very tough in here.IMO he is the best horse in the country right now.If he gets beat it's likely to be because of a rough trip from the rail.Yet another in an amazing line up for Pletcher on the card.
4-Goldencents 10-1 - A lot of speed in the race so will have to have some luck pacewise.
13-Shakin' It Up 6-1 - He ran argiably the best race of anyone on Kentucky Derby Day andis one of very few in here fast enough on his best to push the fave.
3-Scarly Charly 50-1 - Again I am a sucker for Hushion horses and no way this one only has a 50-1 chance.Hushion is excellent with all applicable angles and as for the horse he has faced some decent competition in California before switching barns before this race.
10-Clearly Now 10-1 - Not recommending going 5 deep unless keying the fave in straight exotics but I just know the one time I toss this horse he is going to beat me.Think I have been on him for just about every one of his dirt races.
Race 10(Manhattan)
8-Real Solution 5-1 - Last time he ran at this distance he won the Arlington Million via DQ over a very good foreign invader in The Apache.It was also 3rd from a layoff which is the same today.
4-Grandeur 5-1 - Also a deep closer in a pretty paceless race but not sure Five Iron wants to go this far and he might just muddle the pace enough to wear out Imagining.
2-Hey Leroy 12-1 and 9-Kaigun 15-1 get no respect after running just as good as anyone their last few turf races.
3-Rookie Sensation 12-1 - Would need him to drift up in price a little but he caught my eye originally when looking at the pps first glance because of his pace figs.Not sure how to play this yet maybe just pick 4 of them and box of key the 8,4 on top.
Race 11(Belmont Stakes)
1-Medal Count 20-1 - Don't think we've seen how good he is yet after 2 eventful trips in the Derby and Bluegrass.He will stay 1 1/2 miles and has a perfect grinding style clicking off :24s.Drosselmeyeresque.
9-Wicked Strong 6-1 - Have literally been on this horse since his very first start and would be again if not for the price discrepancy between him and Medal Count.All my tickets will have 1,9/ABCD though.He is a beast and if not for the 20 draw followed by a terrible trip would have made Chrome look mortal at the least.
2-California Chrome 3-5 - Frankly I don't give a shyt if he wins the Triple Crown and even worse that would mean I lose money.I am a figures guy and he isn't even in the same zipcode as Smarty Jones and Big Brown let alone the horses who did complete the Triple Crown.I also don't think it will do anything for the popularity of the game.As long as the stooges who run the sport state by state are in charge the downward spiral will continue.They need to have complete transparency by disclosing all vet records, adopt a testing protocal to eliminate move up drugs, reduce take out , provide free pps , have a universal governing body , etc...etc...
4-Commanding Curve 15-1 - Back to the horses and hard to envision this one not running late but probably too late.
Also Matuszak 30-1 and Commisioner 20-1 are the others for clunk up 3rd or 4th.Ride On Curlin and General A Rod figure but willing to stand against them trying their 3rd race in 5 weeks.Think Tonalist is a big underlay and will let him beat me too.
1,9/2,4,6,8
Race 12
3-Inchcape 12-1 - Fits as good as anyone in a very tough race to handicap.He has been facing some tough horses last few starts and finishing just behind a couple that show up in graded stakes.
11-Shining Copper 8-1 - Has been off a while and was pretty good when he left so he could demolish this field if he improved during his time away.
4-North Star Boy 10-1 - Seems like he doesn't like to win but always runs Ok enough to hit the board since coming to America.
2-Arctic North 10-1 - Also coming from a pretty long layoff and could be tough if he improved.I can't really separate these top 4 and could flip flop any of them.
8-Developer 20-1 - Might just go 4 deep but if I go 5 with a key I'll throw this one in.His synthetic form could win this and being by Dynaformer I have to think his one bad turf race can be forgiven.
Race 13
8-Pazolini 3-1 - McLaughlin not represented that much on the card but this one is the most likely winner in this race imo.He is the best trainer at getting horses to progress every single race they run.If this one progresses then it's a race for 2nd.
1-Kingsford Drive 15-1 - Will be overlooked on the step up in class from a 40k claimer to a optional claimer but he ran ok at this level before and might inherit an easy pace setting trip.B. Brown has been on fire at this Belmont meet too.
2-Eastwood 8-1 - Also figures to be up around the pace through easy fractions and could still be getting better in only his 5th start and 2nd from a layoff.Is the final Pletcher on a card where he has a horse in every single race and a good chance at winning in at least 10 of them.WOW!!!
GLComment -
Originally posted by harthebar
I just see everyone saying how the sport needs a Triple Crown winner.If he wins Joe public still isn't going to be interested in the Belmont card next Thursday and ESPN will go back to treating it like the red headed stepchild shortly afterward.
Anyone that reads the board knows I have a passion for the game not many others do.I just find it very aggravating that instead of really trying to fix what is wrong with the appeal of horse racing , they would rather pretend a Triple Crown winner will do it.Knowing full well it won't.Comment -
Belmont 10th today = Isn't Twilight Eclipse a major go-against even though he outclasses this field? He ran in the big Dubai race 2 months ago and now they put him into a 2 mile race???!!!! I don't get it.
Trying Eagle poise and reflecting for a priceComment -
Nice try ...I had Reflecting too...Thought he was home free but seemed to hangComment -
What a burn! If a horse is over 20-1 I have the show$ covered, not this race and he lost the place by an inch. 12.80
Right mike, usually when they are advancing late like that they keep going, he downshifted once he caught up.Comment -
I like tonalist to place but having difficulties calculating odds.
Let's say I bet a horse to place that's 8/1 and bet 100.
Now I would win if he condoned in top 3 correct?
Buy how bad would my odds go for that?
Not a horse guy but will be getting jiggy with it tomorrow
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i agree with you totally, thats what i was referring to cal ripken, he reall helped baseball get back somewhat after the strike. not sure ifyou follow baseball ,but i assume you do, , i really believe ,that a lot of people would like to see it just go away, ....... all the casino's for one, what they did in atlantic city last jan 1 was just so wrong....and unfair.....the deal is there is just to few big days , and they are so far apart basically you only have 4 days of racing that really shows racing nationally..........if cc wins the triple crown., it will be in the headlines tomorrw,, ,,the back to the heat/spurs series .....no one will care next weekend......all this is ...is just a bunch of hype so people will turn there tv's on.......to charge millions for commercials,......sorry...buts that how i feel.......and jersey is the worse.....they can give two shits about racing....or anything else, they are just letting the casino fall apart.......enough said.........Originally posted by mikemcaComment -
it all depends who the other horse is in the place pool, if cc comes in you would be looking at 5-6 if he is out....10-12 thats if he is 8-1....you have to look at pools, the final odds have nothing to do with show and place payouts, it just depends who finishes in top 3....and how much those horses have have on them in place and show pool.....Originally posted by justafishI like tonalist to place but having difficulties calculating odds.
Let's say I bet a horse to place that's 8/1 and bet 100.
Now I would win if he condoned in top 3 correct?
Buy how bad would my odds go for that?
Not a horse guy but will be getting jiggy with it tomorrowComment -
Lot's of hating on Chrome lately in here past few days. I'd sure like to see a triple crown winner before I die. Watched the 2002 through 2004 Belmont's on NBCSN last night. Heartbreaking stuff. I dont care what anyone says a triple crown winner can only help the sport of horse racing.Comment -
Why not bet to win? Betting to place and show generally sucker bets. Good Luck.Originally posted by justafishI like tonalist to place but having difficulties calculating odds.
Let's say I bet a horse to place that's 8/1 and bet 100.
Now I would win if he condoned in top 3 correct?
Buy how bad would my odds go for that?
Not a horse guy but will be getting jiggy with it tomorrowComment -
I'm guessing you are somewhere outside of America?Originally posted by justafishI like tonalist to place but having difficulties calculating odds.
Let's say I bet a horse to place that's 8/1 and bet 100.
Now I would win if he condoned in top 3 correct?
Buy how bad would my odds go for that?
Not a horse guy but will be getting jiggy with it tomorrow
In the USA the place pool is 1st and 2nd place so your horse has to finish top 2
The show pool is 1st ,2nd,and 3rd
It's not like elsewhere being just a win pool and a place poolComment -
i have to object to you on that one.......i agree bridge jumping.. sucker....1-1 money shots sucker, i think if the pool is in your favor, and you can get 5.00 i think its a safe play, i always thought superfectas..were a fools plays,.........but i think if cc is 3/5 if i were to play him, which im not, id rather play him to show, get a few less pennies.......but i think betting any horses in that race to show is a good play......because c c is not going to be in the money....he is going to fall apart like a soup sandwichOriginally posted by SlimpickensComment -
Yea, different people have different approaches I guess. I guess history is on your side saying that Chrome will flop here but I just dont see him not hitting the board. Competition here is quite light. He is the most athletic horse in the race by a large margin. We'll see. I will be mostly betting against him too but will be happy if he wins.Originally posted by harthebar
In general Im not to exited about collecting 3/2 odds on a place or show bet.Comment -
mike riddle me this ,, just watching some replays of preakness,, as in running...............general a rod was running 2 4¹ 4¸¡ 6¹ 6¶^ 4¾ look at that line but watch the race, you dont see this much...a horse running 4th, then loses ground, then comes back again, with a strong finish....to you read anything into that,...he didnt get cut off,Comment -
Really, Hart, you don't think CC will not even hit the board?? Why do you say that?? He is 3/5 ML for a reason, I know that there are time where you have a false favorite. Looking at the form, I think it would take quite a bit for him not to hit the board. Who are your top 3 then?? What do you see in the other horses??Comment -
just my point is , that we all get to greedy, we all want the big score,......lets face it..its human nature, just my point was or is.....you seem to be a pretty good capper, and you know the game......but answer this honestly....if you went to the track or just stayed home and played.....and just played only show bets.....no favorites......do you think you would be a winner for that day......if you just tried to grind out 5/2 3/2 pay outs even bet 50 win 50 really ..what is wrong with that.....except our nature is to win the big one....think about it......i bet you would......some times you have to to look at things ..as its not how much you win,its how much you dont lose......Originally posted by SlimpickensComment -
History says Chrome doesn't win but he hits the board.Forgot where I read it but just about all the horses going for the triple crown that failed at least hit the board.Of the 10 horses that finished the race only War Emblem 8th missed the Super ,Alysheba got 4th, and the 8 others finished 2nd or 3rdComment -
sorry about some spelling, my keyboard is messed up.....and im going to belmont tomorrow,is anyone else going......i knew i have should have never said that....., i think there are too many variables for him.........first one is history........the next its a mile and half....then there are fresher horses.....the odds maker has no choice in making him 3/5....he cant make the odds on gut feelings..just facts............i'm looking at calif chrome s first 5 races,,,they were average.......even right now,,,yea he won the first two legs, but if you look at the history of other winners of the triple crown, he isnt even close to most of them.....mike mentioned that also.....i just think he had it too easy his last two, he won,,,i give him all the credit,....he had two perfect trips......he never raced this track, i think 5-6 have....i think there is 5-6 horses that can beat him....even general a rod look at his last race...ride on curlin....medal count ...you can topss out his last race.............i just cant explain it.....i just look at the other horses....i dont see 3/5 and remember 3/5 horses lose too...........i like ride on curlin ill post my official horses soon.........you asked me what do i see in the othere horses........my question is....what dont you see.........with 3 year olds ....2 months time can make a difference...Originally posted by mrginandtonicComment -
2 of the horses you mentioned that can beat him havent even won a dirt route race in there entire career. Medal Count may end up being the most talented horse to come out of the Belmont but he is a poly/turf horse. You really think he's gonna be able to eat dirt for over a mile on the rail and then be able to make and sustain a prolonged move? If he does good for him but I cant see it.
As to your betting to show question no I have never done that or even thought about it. I am more of a multi race exotic player. The pick 5 is the best bet in racing by a large margin with the low takeout.Comment -
IMO Wicked Strong is not going to hit board, he won by default in the Wood already been beat by Tonalist,Chrome, and Curve.find it hard to believe CC wont hit board.Comment -
i agree with you 100% except the pick 5 i love the 50 cent pick 4 the pick 5 at santa anita is the best bet out there.....they have giant payouts.....you get one chaulk out...its going big.......... im just saying...being to greedy...does in everyone.........and my point was......the guy who asked the question..about show betting,, someone said its for suckers...yes i agree ..bridge jumpers...suckers fools.....,,my point was you can bet a 50 show bet...and make 70...thats it......i never play favortes to show.....the other point i was making....to that guy was why bet a 3/5 to win,,, when the show price is just about the same....i never figure why people bet a ton of money on a horse that is 1/9 to win..when they can bet to show and get same odds.......now back to other question.........i understand what your saying about this horse never did this ..or that.....those horses i mentioned ..maybe never won....but they have to win sometimes.....and cc has to lose som etimes.......you have to admit...cc had to perfect trips........dream trips........well pick me out a pick 4 tomorrow..........Originally posted by SlimpickensComment
