Post best bet or follow ups of the day

Draynay · 05-02-14, 02:50 PM

Race 9 Istanford with Castellano for the win !

Draynay · 05-02-14, 03:24 PM

Normandy invasion and Castellano double with My Miss Sophia.

mikemca · 05-02-14, 03:29 PM

Normandy Invasion has been scratched for 2 days einstein

Hanger · 05-02-14, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by mikemca

Normandy Invasion has been scratched for 2 days einstein

So can't win?

mikemca · 05-02-14, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by Hanger

So can't win?

Not sure if you're kidding but scratched = not running in the race

Hanger · 05-02-14, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by mikemca

Not sure if you're kidding but scratched = not running in the race

I forgot my smiley face, my fault LOL......

harthebar · 05-02-14, 04:22 PM

KENTUCKY DERBY PROPS					Lines From:05-02-2014 17:21:59
	Cut Off	#	Type	Description		Odds
DERBY - WINNING HORSE #
KENTUCKY DERBY PROPS - May 03
WINNING HORSE NUMBER FOR 2014 KENTUCKY DERBY
	May 03 - 6:15 PM	80551	DERBY - WINNING HORSE #	ODD #		-130
	May 03 - 6:15 PM	80552	DERBY - WINNING HORSE #	EVEN #		EV
WINNING HORSE NUMBER FOR 2014 KENTUCKY DERBY
	May 03 - 6:15 PM	80553	DERBY - WINNING HORSE #	NUMBERS 1 THRU 6		+105
	May 03 - 6:15 PM	80554	DERBY - WINNING HORSE #	NUMBERS 7 THRU 13		+550
	May 03 - 6:15 PM	80555	DERBY - WINNING HORSE #	NUMBERS 14 THRU 20		+125
WINNING HORSE NUMBER FOR 2014 KENTUCKY DERBY
	May 03 - 6:15 PM	80556	DERBY - WINNING HORSE #	NUMBERS 1 THRU 5		+125
	May 03 - 6:15 PM	80557	DERBY - WINNING HORSE #	NUMBERS 6 THRU 10		+500
	May 03 - 6:15 PM	80558	DERBY - WINNING HORSE #	NUMBERS 11 THRU 15		+500
	May 03 - 6:15 PM	80559	DERBY - WINNING HORSE #	NUMBERS 16 THRU 20		+200
WINNING HORSE NUMBER FOR 2014 KENTUCKY DERBY
	May 03 - 6:15 PM	80560	DERBY - WINNING HORSE #	NUMBERS 1 THRU 10		-165
	May 03 - 6:15 PM	80561	DERBY - WINNING HORSE #	NUMBERS 11 THRU 20		+135
WILL CALIFORNIA CHROME WIN THE 2014 KENTUCKY DERBY
	May 03 - 6:15 PM	80562	CALIFORNIA CHROME WIN DERBY	YES		+200
	May 03 - 6:15 PM	80563	CALIFORNIA CHROME WIN DERBY	NO		-300

harthebar · 05-02-14, 04:26 PM

~~~~~~ NO REFUNDS ON NON STARTERS ~~~~~~
May 03 - 12:00 PM80501KENTUCKY DERBY - TO WIN - ALL IN BETTING VICARS IN TROUBLE+2500
May 03 - 12:00 PM80502KENTUCKY DERBY - TO WIN - ALL IN BETTING HARRYS HOLIDAY+5800
May 03 - 12:00 PM80503KENTUCKY DERBY - TO WIN - ALL IN BETTING UNCLE SIGH+3500
May 03 - 12:00 PM80504KENTUCKY DERBY - TO WIN - ALL IN BETTING DANZA+800
May 03 - 12:00 PM80505KENTUCKY DERBY - TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCALIFORNIA CHROME+200
May 03 - 12:00 PM80506KENTUCKY DERBY - TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGSAAMRAT+1000
May 03 - 12:00 PM80507KENTUCKY DERBY - TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGWE MISS ARTIE+7200
May 03 - 12:00 PM80508KENTUCKY DERBY - TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGGENERAL A ROD+2250
May 03 - 12:00 PM80509KENTUCKY DERBY - TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGVINCEREMOS+3750
May 03 - 12:00 PM80510KENTUCKY DERBY - TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGWILDCAT RED+2250
May 03 - 12:00 PM80511KENTUCKY DERBY - TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGDANCE WITH FATE+1750
May 03 - 12:00 PM80512KENTUCKY DERBY - TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCHITU+2750
May 03 - 12:00 PM80513KENTUCKY DERBY - TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGMEDAL COUNT+1500
May 03 - 12:00 PM80514KENTUCKY DERBY - TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGTAPITURE+1000
May 03 - 12:00 PM80515KENTUCKY DERBY - TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGINTENSE HOLIDAY+600
May 03 - 12:00 PM80516KENTUCKY DERBY - TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCOMMANDING CURVE+2250
May 03 - 12:00 PM80517KENTUCKY DERBY - TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCANDY BOY+1750
May 03 - 12:00 PM80518KENTUCKY DERBY - TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGRIDE ON CURLIN+1400
May 03 - 12:00 PM80519KENTUCKY DERBY - TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGWICKED STRONG+850

mikemca · 05-02-14, 04:27 PM

Even # at even money would be the bet if I had to choose

harthebar · 05-02-14, 04:45 PM

i hate laying money 300 to win 100 , so i like the one you picked then i like 11-20 +135

Originally posted by mikemca

Even # at even money would be the bet if I had to choose

mikemca · 05-02-14, 04:54 PM

Originally posted by harthebar

then i like 11-20 +135

Don't like that

If you put $1 on each of them the return would much better than that unless 16 or 20 win

harthebar · 05-02-14, 05:02 PM

wonder how untablable would go with the colts

harthebar · 05-02-14, 05:09 PM

or, i get it...you are talking about odds.....not so much the bet...you mean if i put 1.00 on each horse i wouild get a better payout.....
i think all theses are rips, i just mean......out of all the options, i like 11-20 the best, but the odds suck...but the odds on CC 300 TO WIN 100 .THATS WHAT IM ASKING YOU ABOUT....I CANT FIGURE THAT OUT, HOW BAD ARE THOSE.....

Originally posted by mikemca

Don't like that

If you put $1 on each of them the return would much better than that unless 16 or 20 win

mikemca · 05-02-14, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by harthebar

or, i get it...you are talking about odds.....not so much the bet...you mean if i put 1.00 on each horse i wouild get a better payout.....
i think all theses are rips, i just mean......out of all the options, i like 11-20 the best, but the odds suck...but the odds on CC 300 TO WIN 100 .THATS WHAT IM ASKING YOU ABOUT....I CANT FIGURE THAT OUT, HOW BAD ARE THOSE.....

I don't like laying chalk but that seems good.I would say he is definitely less than 30% to win the race

Easy-Rider 66 · 05-02-14, 05:56 PM

MIkeMca Looking to get your opinion on Chitu. Lightly raced Colt, but has the 5th or 6th best Timeform speed figure at 104 coming in. Can see him moving forward. I believe his sire was a sprinter but he is out of an AP Indy Mare. Should be forwardly placed. I guess the 10 furlongs is the question, but may give him a shot. Currently 26/1. Thx.

mikemca · 05-02-14, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66

MIkeMca Looking to get your opinion on Chitu. Lightly raced Colt, but has the 5th or 6th best Timeform speed figure at 104 coming in. Can see him moving forward. I believe his sire was a sprinter but he is out of an AP Indy Mare. Should be forwardly placed. I guess the 10 furlongs is the question, but may give him a shot. Currently 26/1. Thx.

This is just my take , I don't want to talk you off 20-1+.The "other" Bafferts with huge odds have won a lot and that is originally what Chitu was.I don't think the distance is a problem as stamina does come from the dam side and he wasn't neck and neck with MH/Commish, he crushed them.With only 4 starts he still has potential many of the others don't.

What worried me about him is the way Baffert talked about him.Kind of like "Oh Chitu, he is a neat little horse" and was in the race so Hoppertunity had a pace to run at.Also Midnight Hawk and Commissioner didn't exactly flatter him with their runs after the Sunland derby.

Easy-Rider 66 · 05-02-14, 06:28 PM

Originally posted by mikemca

This is just my take , I don't want to talk you off 20-1+.The "other" Bafferts with huge odds have won a lot and that is originally what Chitu was.I don't think the distance is a problem as stamina does come from the dam side and he wasn't neck and neck with MH/Commish, he crushed them.With only 4 starts he still has potential many of the others don't.

What worried me about him is the way Baffert talked about him.Kind of like "Oh Chitu, he is a neat little horse" and was in the race so Hoppertunity had a pace to run at.Also Midnight Hawk and Commissioner didn't exactly flatter him with their runs after the Sunland derby.

I did not know about the Baffert statements. Would like Chitu to have had a better foundation as a 2 year old. Will check out the coverage tomorrow, but at 26/1 may be worth a shot.

TonyP · 05-02-14, 06:48 PM

had the oaks double to chitu and california chrome

Draynay · 05-02-14, 06:54 PM

11/13 Exacta Box in the Oak was my largest Exacta bet ever.

Draynay · 05-02-14, 07:03 PM

The way the track is playing Danza will be tough to beat in the Derby.... deep closers.... forget it. Box danza with general and wildcat.

Easy-Rider 66 · 05-02-14, 07:04 PM

Originally posted by TonyP

had the oaks double to chitu and california chrome

Did some more research on Chitu's bloodlines. His dam raced once and won at 10 furlongs. His second Dam was undefeated in 4 routes on the turf. And beat the colts once in a grade 3 at 9 furlongs. Beholder is by his sire Henny Hughes. She has not showed any distance limitations. If Chitu can avoid getting in a speed duel early he may get the 10 furlongs. Good luck on your Oaks/Derby double.

TonyP · 05-02-14, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66

Did some more research on Chitu's bloodlines. His dam raced once and won at 10 furlongs. His second Dam was undefeated in 4 routes on the turf. And beat the colts once in a grade 3 at 9 furlongs. Beholder is by his sire Henny Hughes. She has not showed any distance limitations. If Chitu can avoid getting in a speed duel early he may get the 10 furlongs. Good luck on your Oaks/Derby double.

Thanks

Heppy10 · 05-02-14, 10:38 PM

Churchill Best Bets

Race 2
#7 Rockford 3-1

Race 6
#7 Ready Signal 12-1

Race 7
#5 Sherzinger 7-2

Race 10
#5 Kaigun 8-1

Who's Wise dan?

JBEX · 05-03-14, 12:27 AM

Just listened to Brad Thomas on Mike Francesa. To me one of the most astute cappers there is He had Orb on top and the triple and I believe possibly the super playing his secondary horses underneath in last year's edition. He likes MEDAL COUNT on top and I'm with him. Pedigree, running style are favorable. He's excusing him in the bc juvenile (wide post,no lasix, speed biased track). He felt the even run in the FOY wasn't bad either considering the speed biased track.Worked nice 6f at CD last Saturday

underneath horses.. commanding curve,candy boy, wicked strong, intense holiday tapiture, ride on curlin

Of these like INTENSE HOLIDAY the best and he's my secondary choice

Easy-Rider 66 · 05-03-14, 04:12 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

Just listened to Brad Thomas on Mike Francesa. To me one of the most astute cappers there is He had Orb on top and the triple and I believe possibly the super playing his secondary horses underneath in last year's edition. He likes MEDAL COUNT on top and I'm with him. Pedigree, running style are favorable. He's excusing him in the bc juvenile (wide post,no lasix, speed biased track). He felt the even run in the FOY wasn't bad either considering the speed biased track.Worked nice 6f at CD last Saturday

underneath horses.. commanding curve,candy boy, wicked strong, intense holiday tapiture, ride on curlin

Of these like INTENSE HOLIDAY the best and he's my secondary choice

Running well lately. But what concerns me is that the Derby will be his 3rd race in a month. Wheeling back in 3 weeks. And his best numbers are on the Poly. But at 20/1 ML may be rounding into good form. Good luck.

JBEX · 05-03-14, 06:00 AM

Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66

Running well lately. But what concerns me is that the Derby will be his 3rd race in a month. Wheeling back in 3 weeks. And his best numbers are on the Poly. But at 20/1 ML may be rounding into good form. Good luck.

possibly but there were 41 days between his first two races of this year and exactly the same amount of time between races two and three. That's a lot of rest and he fired big in the Bluegrass returning in 8 days breaking from the 13 post.
Not overly concerned with his activity coming into this

Easy-Rider 66 · 05-03-14, 06:09 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

possibly but there were 41 days between his first two races of this year and exactly the same amount of time between races two and three. That's a lot of rest and he fired big in the Bluegrass returning in 8 days breaking from the 13 post.
Not overly concerned with his activity coming into this

Valid point. But this will be his 3rd race in 29 days with the 10 furlongs ahead of him. Medal Count also caught a dead track at keeneland last race that strongly favored his running style. But like you said Brad Thomas is sharp and so is Medal count lately. Good luck.

JBEX · 05-03-14, 07:05 AM

Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66

Valid point. But this will be his 3rd race in 29 days with the 10 furlongs ahead of him. Medal Count also caught a dead track at keeneland last race that strongly favored his running style style. But like you said Brad Thomas is sharp and so is Medal count lately. Good luck.

Like the overall picture going in. Maybe timing's a slight negative but not enough to sway me off him

Draynay · 05-03-14, 07:36 AM

Key Danza with Wildcat, General, Medal, Intense and Wicked.

mikemca · 05-03-14, 08:51 AM

Saturday/Kentucky Derby Day

Race 1 has 3 horses that scratched out of the 4th on Friday in Trace Creek 4-1,Upkeep 5-2, and Foolhardy 10-1.I like the bookends with Nick's Pick 7-2 and Prosecution 5-1.

Race 2 is chalky between top 3 MLs and maybe 4th(Pletcher) but that is assuming he improves him considerably 1st time in the barn.

Race 3 We may actually see a Cal bred win on derby day in 1-Masochistic 4-1 instead of the more popular one in R11.4-Swift Humor 12-1 looks like a live firster and 10-Boss Gone 8-1 is the other one.

Race 4 Sometimes the 7 1/2F turf races are hard to put a figure to but if they turn out to be right with 5-Night Song's 6-1 last then she may be best bet on card.2-Faerie Queene 10-1 is the price and prefer 3-Magical Steps 7-2 of the two faves but safer to use both if possible.

Race 5 is impossible , I can make a case for literally 10 of the 11 horses.I guess 2-Twang 5-1 .

Race 6 While I don't know if 9-Centre Court is 7-5 good I do think her and 8-Effie Trinket 6-1 are the class.Trying to find an outsider to stab at with them.

Race 7 is where we get to see 8-Midnight Lucky freak and Judy the Beauty try to keep up.Looking for a price to throw in 1-Street Girl 20-1.

Race 8 Think Craftsman 12-1 got out of character last race being up front and will change to a more patient ride with the switch to great turf jock.

Race 9 With a trip finally Clearly Now can strut his stuff. Sahara Sky and Shakin It Up are the challengers.3-Broadway Empire 15-1 is a price to use.

Race 10 is the next stop in Wise Dan's victory tour.Kaigun 8-1 was reeling him in last race which is very rare.Wise Dan might finally be coming back to earth.If trying to beat him I would want a huge price and I have been on Finnegan's Wake 20-1 his last 2 turf races which teased me with 2 big late runs.Him or Moro Tap 30-1 would be my stabs

Race 11 - Kentucky Derby
6-Samraat 15-1-Changed my mind on this guy after looking closer at his Wood effort and when I tried to envision the trip of each horse.IMO he is a good bet to get a good trip ,is fast enough on figs,game, and therefore the safest key in a box.
20-Wicked Strong 6-1-Price isn't that bad if you think he should be the favorite.Post is a concern but the way Raj rides it may help.
18-Candy Boy 15-1-Liked Hopp and him more than the fave.SA played against while CD plays for them
4-Danza 8-1-Hate the price and the fact everyone and their momma is on him now .He fits on figs but going from 40-1+ in Arkansas to maybe the 2nd choice in the derby is wedding/funeral if I've ever seen one.Too many question marks to take at his likely price.He will most likely be the biggest underlay in the race.
16-Intense Holiday 8-1-He is also slow on figs and will probably be too far out of it but can grab the back end of exotics.
14-Medal Count 20-1-He ,Intense Holiday, and Danza are the hyped up horses.He is slow figurewise but sired by my 2nd favorite horse and would be nice to see the great sire Dyna get a derby winner 2 years after he passed.
19-Ride On Curlin 15-1-Just keeps on plugging no matter how wide he is.

Others

Dance With Fate - Is a possibility but pedigree screams synth
Chrome - Has some of the same ??? as Danza in most likely facing adversity off easy race(s).Has way more foundation though.Price makes him unplayable imo.
Vicars In Trouble - Really like this horse and it's not his post that is a concern.It's the pace scenario.
Chitu - Ditto as V.I.T and Uncle Sigh
Commading Curve - Could plug his way into the Tri/Super/HI5 and wouldn't argue with anyone liking the 50-1
General A Rod - Is in the picture figurewise and could be playable.He just doesn't seem to have killer instinct.

Race 12 is 9-Captain Genius 12-1, 7-Bull Dozer 3-1, and 2-Platitude 6-1.

Race 13 Party Time is an overlay at 3-1.6-Silent Ruler 15-1 and 8-Rocket Time 15-1 are the prices.

matrix1022 · 05-03-14, 09:10 AM

Again can't see hart stuff. Amazing.

JBEX · 05-03-14, 09:22 AM

CD

R2 chas's legacy (4-1)
R3 #4 swift humor (12-1)and #10 boss gone (8-1)
R4 #7 flashy gal (4-1)

more later

TonyP · 05-03-14, 10:16 AM

race 3 #1 to me is a false fave 2nd lifetime start first start on rail auto toss for me

Draynay · 05-03-14, 10:20 AM

Race 8 at Churchill looks like a 2 horse race Globa View is back on turf and Chief Barker comes in with a bullet work, 8 less pounds and FTL

JBEX · 05-03-14, 10:27 AM

CD

R5 #7 thundergram (6-1)
R6 pass
R7 #3 judy the beauty (3-1)