fall racing

**JBEX** · 11-07-22, 11:49 AM

laurel

R4 #1 bettheover (6-1)

R6 #8 creative cadence (4-1)

been attending very fast paces and might be a little softer here..outside posts and speed have been working well in sprints here

R7 #1 scarlett sky (6-1)
R9 #5 west newton (8-1)

half brother to listed stakes winner fig
newton..naahh

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**JBEX** · 11-07-22, 12:24 PM

added 6

**JBEX** · 11-07-22, 12:40 PM

added 7 9

**JBEX** · 11-11-22, 11:53 AM

[time posted]

aqu

R1 #3 barry the builder (8-1)
R2 pass
R3 pass

cd

R1 #4 you're avoiding me (15-1)[1204]

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**JBEX** · 11-11-22, 12:07 PM

added cd 1

**JBEX** · 11-12-22, 11:07 AM

aqueduct

R1 #2 bustino santino (8-1)
R5 #3 will e sutton (6-1)

churchill

R3 #2 bolt for allison (5-1)

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**JBEX** · 11-12-22, 11:18 AM

added aqu 5 and cd 3

**JBEX** · 11-15-22, 11:13 AM

IND

R2 #6 skyline (6-1)

**JBEX** · 11-16-22, 12:20 PM

churchill

R6 #2 valiant praise (7-2)

**JBEX** · 12-08-22, 01:11 PM

aqu

R5 #5 sharpaz (10-1) 2:14

fairgrounds

R7 #4 phileas fog (9-2) 5:15

steady ,solid works going back to mid september..lots of them 5f and they are going 2 turns today..trainer having a solid meet early on..not a scary field

R8 #6 lead me (2-1) 5:45

probably half this but looks tough

gulfstream

R9 #9 pawky (9-2) 4:05

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**JBEX** · 12-08-22, 01:49 PM

added fg 7

**JBEX** · 12-08-22, 02:10 PM

added f8 and gp 9..probably it

**JBEX** · 12-09-22, 01:12 PM

fg was write-up/?? I did in str thread so putting it here also..added an oaklawn play

mike stidham is having an excellent early part of the meet
at fg ..caught a fts who won easy going 2 turns today..pedigree was modest on that one and he's got an ultra expensive filly going 2 turns first out friday..bred to do just that top and bottom

fg R8 #5 cushee (9-2) 5:45

always like when trainers are hot at a meet and have a horse like this running ..steady works at fair hill training center and fg..was wondering if the 39 day break in works bothers you? another (positive) point you've made to me is happening here also as this horse was purchased as a yearling vs as a 2yo..you can't see the horse work and/or before it's fully developed and willing to plunk money down i believe is the logic ?

a "may" foal but maybe that starts to matter a little less now .. can't have everything in line lol

jockey won only time he rode for stidham..think lower and if 6-1 or higher wouldn't touch her

oaklawn 2:26

R3 #6 madly dancing (10-1)

fts same sire ,auction and very expensive like the fg horse ..going 2 turns also..trainer an under the radar guy and offers excellent value with maidens..big difference is here you have a legit odds-on favorite but outside of her the field doesn't seem very tough

R6 #2 indian Irish (3-1) 3:50

think will be half this

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**JBEX** · 12-09-22, 01:53 PM

added op 6

**JBEX** · 12-09-22, 06:36 PM

turfway park

R5 #8 royal vicky (10-1) 7:55
R7 #11 carom (8-1)
R8 #6 tap the candy (6-1)

**JBEX** · 12-09-22, 06:48 PM

added R7

**JBEX** · 12-09-22, 07:33 PM

added R8 (last)

**JBEX** · 12-16-22, 11:07 AM

oaklawn

3 picks starting with R5 in pigpen's thread

fairgrounds

R6 #8 midnight pranks (12-1) 4:45

really tough call between this one and #5 golden nugget (6-1) who is an expensive fts by mendelssohn (if mrgnt happens to look at this)
..8 post out is also disadvantageous in sprints at this track but at least it's borderline and possibly they'll be a scratch. like the fact his 1st 2 starts were against much better horses at churchill and showed some life there..a very expensive horse and could see him waking up in this spot vs lesser..one of the better midwest trainers has him and he's on fire in the early part of the meet..definitely would like to see him lower than ml to signal he's live and think he will be

gulfstream

R3 #1 silver n black (5-1) 1:06

R8 #8 miss new york (9-2)

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**JBEX** · 12-16-22, 11:34 AM

added gp 3 8

**JBEX** · 12-26-22, 11:39 AM

fairgrounds

R5 #5 hey jackson (8-1)

lots of expensive well bred fts in here..this one's high 5 figures but cost a lot for the pedigree..some lively moves and a 5lb bug aboard (right to the front?)..factoring roi trainer has nice numbers with msw's

**JBEX** · 12-30-22, 03:52 PM

santa anita

R5 #3 valiancer (6-1)

R8 #8 economical (8-1) 888

trainer has amazing combo of percentage and roi #s over a large sample..this horse is usually competive at this level and surface..returns in 13 days and drops off a 51 day rest .. so far outside posts doing well at 2 turns here
s

**JBEX** · 12-30-22, 04:22 PM

added R8

**JBEX** · 12-30-22, 08:52 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

santa anita

R5 #3 valiancer (6-1)

R8 #8 economical (8-1) 888

trainer has amazing combo of percentage and roi #s over a large sample..this horse is usually competive at this level and surface..returns in 13 days and drops off a 51 day rest .. so far outside posts doing well at 2 turns here
s

R5 is tomorrow

**JBEX** · 12-31-22, 11:51 AM

gulfstream

R5 #8 jungfrau (3-1)

factoring roi mott has amazing numbers 2nd off layoff and with shippers (huge sample also)..
nice race at aqueduct last out and with solid works at payson park tc following should be primed for this..big pedigree juddmonte homebred and outside posts been doing very..jose ortiz..lots to like

fairgrounds

R7 #9 spartan queen (10-1)

R10 #7 grapes for eloise (8-1)

santa anita

R5 #3 valiancer (6-1)

oaklawn

R2 #5 tough legacy (20-1) 1:58

R3 #7 foxpass (15-1)
R4 #8 the heights (7-2)

be at least 1 more from R5,8 or 10 at op

R8 #6 goldenshuga (6-1)
R10 #1 ben's legacy (8-1)

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**JBEX** · 12-31-22, 12:29 PM

added 1 @ sa and fg

**Pigpen** · 12-31-22, 12:46 PM

Happy New Year JBX!!!!! Hope you find many winners in 23

**JBEX** · 12-31-22, 01:05 PM

Originally posted by Pigpen

Happy New Year JBX!!!!! Hope you find many winners in 23

thanks pigpen and same to you !! hopefully starting today lol

**JBEX** · 12-31-22, 01:06 PM

added another fg and Oaklawn 2..be more at latter

**JBEX** · 12-31-22, 01:17 PM

added op 3 4

**JBEX** · 12-31-22, 02:05 PM

added op 8 10

**JBEX** · 01-04-23, 12:35 AM

gulfstream

R5 #3 vai bella (6-1)

this is a race for fillies who have started for a tag of $35k or less and are eligible for n1x alw conditions OR are willing to be up for sale for $35k

ny horse fits this very nicely as she debuted for $35k (eligibility)
but since then has run in 3 alw races and last out in a listed stakes ..the effort last out would make her very tough at this level ..irad steps aboard to ride

i could see her being the favorite and wouldnt touch her at over 7-2

tampa bay

R9 #1 volatility (9-2) 4:20

trainer having a good meet early on ..one of those under the radar guys who is flat bet profitable over large samples with good percentages..in his debut (last start) broke from the 11 post on the inner turf at aqu and ran a wide and even
race going 2 turns..the figure was actually very good despite finishing 9th (by < 5 lengths)..the rail is very good here and ridden by one of the best jocks at the track..with 2 chad browns..2 clements and a few other big time trainers may offer some value

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**JBEX** · 01-04-23, 10:39 AM

added tam 9

**Pigpen** · 01-04-23, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

gulfstream

R5 #3 vai bella (6-1)

this is a race for fillies who have started for a tag of $35k or less and are eligible for n1x alw conditions OR are willing to be up for sale for $35k

ny horse fits this very nicely as she debuted for $35k (eligibility)
but since then has run in 3 alw races and last out in a listed stakes ..the effort last out would make her very tough at this level ..irad steps aboard to ride

i could see her being the favorite and wouldnt touch her at over 7-2

tampa bay

R9 #1 volatility (9-2) 4:20

trainer having a good meet early on ..one of those under the radar guys who is flat bet profitable over large samples with good percentages..in his debut (last start) broke from the 11 post on the inner turf at aqu and ran a wide and even
race going 2 turns..the figure was actually very good despite finishing 9th (by < 5 lengths)..the rail is very good here and ridden by one of the best jocks at the track..with 2 chad browns..2 clements and a few other big time trainers may offer some value

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Great info. JBX, thank you for your continued contributions and knowledge!!!!!

**JBEX** · 01-04-23, 11:23 AM

Originally posted by Pigpen

Great info. JBX, thank you for your continued contributions and knowledge!!!!!

thanks and no problem pigpen..hopefully get at least one good effort between them

**JBEX** · 01-05-23, 12:58 PM

gulfstream

R8 #4 american prince (5-1)

think the drop and cutting back a furlong suits him well..trainer offers value off short layoffs
and in claiming races..Irad aboard for the first time

R9 #9 garmento (15-1)

as a 2yo 3 starts back debuted in a route at kentucky downs which is an incredibly tough spot
..returned 3 weeks later to break his maiden in a turf route at indiana..off for a year (ok not good) but runs a credible 2nd on the dirt at the kee fall meet..given to a different trainer (from wes ward) who I've never heard of but has incredible numbers over a large sample in multiple applicable categories ..think he's not a bad fit with this group

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