Saratoga Meet

[mikemca]

He was the best jockey on the planet.

Hard to ever get a price on him but watching him ride was a thing of beauty.Javi has flashes of Ramon now and then.

[str]

Anybody else get depressed every time they see Dominguez R A in their pps?

Ramon would really appreciate those words Mike.

He really would.

[mikemca]

Arlington Million Day is always one of my favorite days of the year.The feature race didn't draw as well as usual but plenty of good turf racing throughout the card.

Arlington
Race 1
One of only 3 main track races on the day to go along with 9 turf races.Think the popular pick is going to be 2-Ghetto Cat 8-1 so doubt the ML sticks.Goes 3rd from layoff after dueling at this class/distance last out.Can run that way but looks like a better runner when rating behind someone.4-Space Traveler 5-2 and 1-Mystic 9-2 are the logical winners.Will try to beat the 1 for the purpose of trying to hit a big exacta.9-Ken's Livingston 20-1 will be on the front end along with 8-Viola George 20-1.If you just take a leap of faith that the track will carry speed then they could blow up the tote.Even if the track is fair they either could hang around long enough to hit the board.Prefer the 9 of the two going 2nd from layoff and Berndt/Montalvo are excellent together at Hawthorne.Not so much history at Arlington so will have to see if they can bring their form over.

2-Ghetto Cat 8-1
4-Space Traveler 5-2
9-Ken's Livingston 20-1
8-Viola George 20-1

Race 2
Wow , talk about a rabbit.Melo Mason isn't entered to be one but you have to assume he assures a solid pace coming off three 2 furlong races where he was on or around the lead.Apparently speed has been dominant in 5f turf races for most of the meet so treading lightly playing against but if you want to go that way 3-6-8 will be on the merry go round if that's the case.Catalano is one of the best trainers in the country at spotting his horses the first race after they break their maiden so giving 1-Mac West 4-1 the top spot making first start on turf after a strong closing victory on the Arlington main track last out.Hard race to gauge so will just stick to the win pool here.The C Block turn back looks interesting at first but he has putrid numbers route to sprint on turf.

1-Mac West 4-1

Race 3
You don't see a 125k optional claimer everyday but that's what you have here at 1 mile on turf.A lot of different angles in play but going with proven form on top.9-All Stormy 12-1 middle moved into a suicidal pace last out and paid the price in the lane.Has had a short break since which trainer excels.7-Live In Joy 10-1 comes out of the same race and was on that hot pace.Big switch to Castellano who will get a more relaxed trip.C Block not that great sprint to route either but 2-Sir Applesolutely 12-1 gets first try at the distance and should be able to work out a great trip coming off a bunch of sprints and drawing the rail.A win is the next step following the pattern of 4-O T B Bob 9-2.The catch is trainers 1 for 67 turf record.Can go 4 deep with the prices involved.

9-All Stormy 12-1
7-Live In Joy 10-1
2-Sir Applesolutely 12-1
4-O T B Bob 9-2

Race 4
Two year old MSW turf routes may be my favorite type of race.It's all about breeding,angles,workouts , and what could be.5-Safe At Sea 6-1 is bred like this race was in Europe.Scherer might not be the best first out trainer but he does excellent work with 2 year olds.9-Luck Of A Kitten 3-1 makes 2nd start for W Ward after running in a MSW turf route at Saratoga.Some will see it as MSW to MSW but in fact it is a big drop in class.Will be take a good horse to beat him.8-Tender May 20-1 goes 1st out for little known trainer .Best asset is juveniles and constantly surprising with big priced 1sters.

5-Safe At Sea 6-1
9-Luck Of A Kitten 3-1
8-Tender May 20-1

Race 5
Starts the stakes portion of the card.10-Zubi Zubi Zu 9-2 will have to work out a trip from the far outside but looks like the fastest router.6-Colonel Joan 8-1 ran huge in the BC juvy turf last year and is working on getting back to it 3rd from layoff.9-Mizzen Miss 5-1 is fastest horse in the race but earned her 3 for 3 turf record sprinting on the pace.Am skeptical about going this far even with a clear lead and good trainer stats but hard to leave out at ML.If she gets bet too hard could use 2-High Wire Kitten 8-1 2nd off break for Ward.The Ramseys love to win on big race cards so their horses could all be live.

10-Zubi Zubi Zu 9-2
6-Colonel Joan 8-1
9-Mizzen Miss 5-1
2-High Wire Kitten 8-1

Race 6
All the fast horses project to be involved in a very fast pace in the 6-7-10.The 7-McQ is 15-1 so wouldn't argue with anyone that wanted to use him.Ward and the Ramseys have another one in her and it's first off the claim which Ward rarely does 3-Puppy Manners 10-1.They took him from Hollendorfer after a wide 7f run for 50k.Has the style and back figs to compete at a square price.5-Bourbonize 7-2 is probably the most logical after knocking heads with the toughest in his crop 2 of his last 3 races.1-Stormy Pacific 10-1 has the post and style to get the best trip and won impressively last time he went sprint to route.4-Sultry Cat 15-1 has some appealing pace figs that say a forward move is in order.Can be used going 4 deep or if there is a scratch.

3-Puppy Manners 10-1
5-Bourbonize 7-2
1-Stormy Pacific 10-1
4-Sultry Cat 15-1

Race 7
Seems simple , play the Euros.Except I'm against the favorite Dandino who didn't come back as good as he was in 2013.The Euros to play are 9-Eye Of The Storm 6-1 , 7-Havana Beat 15-1 , and 4-Moment In Time 20-1.All have the best figures in the field.If there is a US horse to use it's 8-Admiral Kitten 10-1.

9-Eye Of The Storm 6-1
7-Havana Beat 15-1
4-Moment In Time 20-1
8-Admiral Kitten 10-1

Race 8
The two favorites look tough in here 6-Adelaide 8-5 and 9-Tourist 5-2.Maybe 4-General Jack 12-1 is the one horse I could take a stab with.Is progressing and could explode with the extra distance.3-Belisarius 20-1 could be a lot better than his races say.Still pretty green for having raced 6 times .The American make over of lasix and blinkers on could produce a big effort.

4-General Jack 12-1
3-Belisarius 20-1
6-Adelaide 8-5
9-Tourist 5-2(These in order of win bet value and if cutting one for exacta it would be the 9)

Race 9
Does Somali Lemonade finally come back down to earth?Can't fault those who are on the bandwagon at 6-1 even with the bad post.Last race is right in line with the best in here and pace figs say could even be better.I'm sticking with the foreigners.1-Just The Judge 6-1 and 2-Euro Charline 8-1 have been running against fields 2x as tough as this one.10-Sparkling Beam shouldn't be 20-1 so is also playable.If their is a US runner it's Somali Lemonade but just a Euro box for me.

1-Just The Judge 6-1
2-Euro Charline 8-1
10-Sparkling Beam 20-1

Race 10
The Million is arguably the worst race on this card today but 3-Magician 7-5 isn't the cinch the way he is being reported and the way his ML makes him look.2-Smoking Sun 9-2 , 6-Real Solution 5-2 are very close to him and 4-Finnegans Wake 12-1 could finally race to his potential.7-Side Glance 8-1 for some reason set an absurd pace last out when that's not his game.The 1 and 5 might be in too deep.

4-Finnegans Wake 12-1(Would be my win bet stab)
3-Magician 7-5
2-Smoking Sun 9-2
6-Real Solution 5-2

Race 11
Can't envision anything but the logical result.

3-Kiss Moon 5-2
9-Battlefield Angel 4-1
4-Maria Maria 6-1

Race 12
A 7.5k maiden claimer ends the card which maybe 10 people will be interested in.I'm not one of them.Chalk/Chalk

[getthatheadup]

Nice write up mike! Thanks for sharing as you obviously spent a lot of time with this. I know you like the exotics but you have some nice priced selections. Just some well meant advise; consider placing some win bets on those long shots. Hate to see you get shut out when one of your nice priced horses come on top. Good luck buddy!

[mikemca]

Thx

It's Arlington though so not going crazy.The only track I'm following thoroughly right now is Saratoga.

[TonyP]

Thx Mike will be looking at these cappin for the contest.

[harthebar]

thanks mike

[str]

Anybody else get depressed every time they see Dominguez R A in their pps?

Thought I would follow up with you Mike.

I asked the other day about Ramon and how he is doing .

Ramon has been out to Saratoga several times so far in the AM, visiting with friends.

He is in real good spirits and is doing real well.

He's not sure of his future at this point and/or what he might want to do and being the type of guy he is, he would keep that to himself anyway but thought you would like to know that he is in very good health and is taking plenty of time do decide what lies next for him and his family.

[mikemca]

Thx ....yeah coming from where most of these jockeys come from like Ramon , I'm sure he made enough money to live comfortably if he never makes another dollar.

It's a whole new NYRA without Ramon and soon to be Durkin.

[JJJ]

First stakes race at AP and javier wins unreal

[mikemca]

First stakes race at AP and javier wins unreal

IMO he is the best jock in the states.Of course it helps he learned under R Dominguez.

[JBEX]

Nice job on the Beverly D.. You could have done a triple key where 1 of your top two wins and the other comes in the money with the two clear favorites for $4 (. 50 tri) to get back $167 which is a fantastic return

Using timeformus I'm guessing you can directly compare the euro's to US horses? If not every euro class is on average 1-2 levels above ours? For example a group 3 euro is like a G2-G1 here.. A listed stakes there is like a G3 - G2 here? think I remember reading this in The Handicappers Condition Book by James Quinn

[mikemca]

Arlington kicked my azz Saturday.Lost every bet I made there.The topper was Hardest Core winning the Million....How the hell did that happen.Things like that make you wonder if you know anything.

Back to NY

Sunday

Saratoga
Race 1
9-Queen's Parade 8-5 has a pretty big edge on the field.
1-Small World 15-1 is my favorite McLaughlin angle.Maiden 1st turf after a bad race or two on dirt.
Race 2
3-Matching Skies 2-1 goes first off claim for a move up trainer not needing to move up.S Dutrow/R Dutrow/A Dutrow = Same thing
7-Lady Vivien 6-1 Matties good with one thing...First time with a cheap claimer
Race 3
6-Midnight Citra 8-1 Looks a whole lot like Lady Of Victory who won a turf route for Mott a week or two ago.Use a dirt sprint as a strong work to set up a winning turf run in 2nd start.
5-Eskenformoney 4-1 Pace figs in first start are the example of a horse wanting more ground.
9-Tammy The Torpedo 6-1 Chad Brown might have surpassed C Clement for getting a horse to win routing on turf 1st start.
Race 4
5-Another Incident 10-1 If there is a horse that can break up the favorites it's this one.Otherwise chalk over chalk over chalk
Race 5
3-Top Dicile 8-1 Best bred to win first out, drawn ok and Al Stall better than looked this meet
Race 6
Can't seem to land on anyone in here.Need to look deeper on 2nd pass through.
Race 7
8-Chow Fun 4-1 Gets the class relief she needs.
5-Tacones 10-1 Could have a say if ever gets a pace to run at.
Race 8
4-Dulcedunbre 12-1 Is a bit of a hanger but can run with any of these.Just doesn't have killer instinct.
Race 9
4-Easter Gift 5-1 Toss last race and looks like a favorite.
3-Farhaan 15-1 May need to look closer.Not sure how this McLaughlin is 15-1 and the other Alpha is 9-5.
Race 10
6-War Dancer 8-1 Runs best at 1 1/2 miles.Only price that looks playable.4 and 7 most likely.
Race 11
9-Hines 2-1

[mikemca]

Nice job on the Beverly D.. You could have done a triple key where 1 of your top two wins and the other comes in the money with the two clear favorites for $4 (. 50 tri) to get back $167 which is a fantastic return

Using timeformus I'm guessing you can directly compare the euro's to US horses? If not every euro class is on average 1-2 levels above ours? For example a group 3 euro is like a G2-G1 here.. A listed stakes there is like a G3 - G2 here? think I remember reading this in The Handicappers Condition Book by James Quinn

I whiffed everything .Sir Applesolutely won at a huge price and the 2-Euro Charline was ok price but I got nothing from either.

Yeah the Euro shippers figures translate directly with the US runners.When they(TimeformUS) went to Timeform about using their name for a US product , Timeform was only willing if they made it on their scale.So even when they are running at Ascot the figs they get are as if it was Saratoga.

Classwise I think that is the translation but imo there has been a resurgence of turf breeding in USA .Think we are closing the gap

[harthebar]

mike i have midnight citra in my stable....it has to be from the june 27 at belmont ...because she was stratched aud 10th at toga....i just cant remember why......im glad you see something in the horse....i also have sky bird..first....race ??another question mark ????i dont know why o well thanks for post

Arlington kicked my azz Saturday.Lost every bet I made there.The topper was Hardest Core winning the Million....How the hell did that happen.Things like that make you wonder if you know anything.

Back to NY

Sunday

Saratoga
Race 1
9-Queen's Parade 8-5 has a pretty big edge on the field.
1-Small World 15-1 is my favorite McLaughlin angle.Maiden 1st turf after a bad race or two on dirt.
Race 2
3-Matching Skies 2-1 goes first off claim for a move up trainer not needing to move up.S Dutrow/R Dutrow/A Dutrow = Same thing
7-Lady Vivien 6-1 Matties good with one thing...First time with a cheap claimer
Race 3
6-Midnight Citra 8-1 Looks a whole lot like Lady Of Victory who won a turf route for Mott a week or two ago.Use a dirt sprint as a strong work to set up a winning turf run in 2nd start.
5-Eskenformoney 4-1 Pace figs in first start are the example of a horse wanting more ground.
9-Tammy The Torpedo 6-1 Chad Brown might have surpassed C Clement for getting a horse to win routing on turf 1st start.
Race 4
5-Another Incident 10-1 If there is a horse that can break up the favorites it's this one.Otherwise chalk over chalk over chalk
Race 5
3-Top Dicile 8-1 Best bred to win first out, drawn ok and Al Stall better than looked this meet
Race 6
Can't seem to land on anyone in here.Need to look deeper on 2nd pass through.
Race 7
8-Chow Fun 4-1 Gets the class relief she needs.
5-Tacones 10-1 Could have a say if ever gets a pace to run at.
Race 8
4-Dulcedunbre 12-1 Is a bit of a hanger but can run with any of these.Just doesn't have killer instinct.
Race 9
4-Easter Gift 5-1 Toss last race and looks like a favorite.
3-Farhaan 15-1 May need to look closer.Not sure how this McLaughlin is 15-1 and the other Alpha is 9-5.
Race 10
6-War Dancer 8-1 Runs best at 1 1/2 miles.Only price that looks playable.4 and 7 most likely.
Race 11
9-Hines 2-1

[getthatheadup]

Arlington kicked my azz Saturday.Lost every bet I made there.The topper was Hardest Core winning the Million....How the hell did that happen.Things like that make you wonder if you know anything.

Back to NY

Sunday

Saratoga
Race 1
9-Queen's Parade 8-5 has a pretty big edge on the field.
1-Small World 15-1 is my favorite McLaughlin angle.Maiden 1st turf after a bad race or two on dirt.
Race 2
3-Matching Skies 2-1 goes first off claim for a move up trainer not needing to move up.S Dutrow/R Dutrow/A Dutrow = Same thing
7-Lady Vivien 6-1 Matties good with one thing...First time with a cheap claimer
Race 3
6-Midnight Citra 8-1 Looks a whole lot like Lady Of Victory who won a turf route for Mott a week or two ago.Use a dirt sprint as a strong work to set up a winning turf run in 2nd start.
5-Eskenformoney 4-1 Pace figs in first start are the example of a horse wanting more ground.
9-Tammy The Torpedo 6-1 Chad Brown might have surpassed C Clement for getting a horse to win routing on turf 1st start.
Race 4
5-Another Incident 10-1 If there is a horse that can break up the favorites it's this one.Otherwise chalk over chalk over chalk
Race 5
3-Top Dicile 8-1 Best bred to win first out, drawn ok and Al Stall better than looked this meet
Race 6
Can't seem to land on anyone in here.Need to look deeper on 2nd pass through.
Race 7
8-Chow Fun 4-1 Gets the class relief she needs.
5-Tacones 10-1 Could have a say if ever gets a pace to run at.
Race 8
4-Dulcedunbre 12-1 Is a bit of a hanger but can run with any of these.Just doesn't have killer instinct.
Race 9
4-Easter Gift 5-1 Toss last race and looks like a favorite.
3-Farhaan 15-1 May need to look closer.Not sure how this McLaughlin is 15-1 and the other Alpha is 9-5.
Race 10
6-War Dancer 8-1 Runs best at 1 1/2 miles.Only price that looks playable.4 and 7 most likely.
Race 11
9-Hines 2-1

Get em today Mike!!!

[bigcat21]

playing around with that late pk 4 looking for a single either going with Alpha in race 9 or Breakeven analysis in the 11th. Going back and forth any thoughts?

[mikemca]

I like Easter Gift a pretty lot in the 9th.Last race is a toss and the race before that he ran 3rd to Will Take Charge and Game On Dude.

When I looked earlier I thought Hines was a standout in the finale.Taking a 2nd look I still think he should win but not as much as I did.Hines hasn't ran in anything less than 1 1/8 in his 6 starts and he is by Tapit so 1 mile and 1 1/6 should be his wheelhouse.

Of your 2 choices I guess I would go with Breakeven Analysis but if I could choose any it would be Main Sequence in the Sword Dancer.His UN win was strong and if improving 2nd off break it's game over.Only worry is Raj in the irons.

[TonyP]

nice call in the opener.

[mikemca]

thx I've won more money on that specific angle than any other

[TonyP]

2nd, xkeyx 5/2,3,6

[TonyP]

thx I've won more money on that specific angle than any other

good info. will remember this. Is this good on any track or mainly Sar, nyra?

[Madison]

Thanks again for the picks Mike! Good luck today!

[TonyP]

2nd, xkeyx 5/2,3,6

$1 2/5 ex returned 20.90

[bigcat21]

Arlington kicked my azz Saturday.Lost every bet I made there.The topper was Hardest Core winning the Million....How the hell did that happen.Things like that make you wonder if you know anything.

Back to NY

Sunday

Saratoga
Race 1
9-Queen's Parade 8-5 has a pretty big edge on the field.
1-Small World 15-1 is my favorite McLaughlin angle.Maiden 1st turf after a bad race or two on dirt.
Race 2
3-Matching Skies 2-1 goes first off claim for a move up trainer not needing to move up.S Dutrow/R Dutrow/A Dutrow = Same thing
7-Lady Vivien 6-1 Matties good with one thing...First time with a cheap claimer
Race 3
6-Midnight Citra 8-1 Looks a whole lot like Lady Of Victory who won a turf route for Mott a week or two ago.Use a dirt sprint as a strong work to set up a winning turf run in 2nd start.
5-Eskenformoney 4-1 Pace figs in first start are the example of a horse wanting more ground.
9-Tammy The Torpedo 6-1 Chad Brown might have surpassed C Clement for getting a horse to win routing on turf 1st start.
Race 4
5-Another Incident 10-1 If there is a horse that can break up the favorites it's this one.Otherwise chalk over chalk over chalk
Race 5
3-Top Dicile 8-1 Best bred to win first out, drawn ok and Al Stall better than looked this meet
Race 6
Can't seem to land on anyone in here.Need to look deeper on 2nd pass through.
Race 7
8-Chow Fun 4-1 Gets the class relief she needs.
5-Tacones 10-1 Could have a say if ever gets a pace to run at.
Race 8
4-Dulcedunbre 12-1 Is a bit of a hanger but can run with any of these.Just doesn't have killer instinct.
Race 9
4-Easter Gift 5-1 Toss last race and looks like a favorite.
3-Farhaan 15-1 May need to look closer.Not sure how this McLaughlin is 15-1 and the other Alpha is 9-5.
Race 10
6-War Dancer 8-1 Runs best at 1 1/2 miles.Only price that looks playable.4 and 7 most likely.
Race 11
9-Hines 2-1

Thank you sir included the 4 in the 1st leg of the pk4 nice price to start

[mikemca]

I'm having a good day today.Makes up for yesterday and then some.


Got stuck on easter gift or I should have hit this too.
Race 9
4-Easter Gift 5-1
3-Farhaan 15-1

Would have 2 for 2 in P4 with a $27.40 winner and a $17.80 winner but would probably be left with just Main Sequence here as my B and C ticket with War Dancer would have lost.

[bigcat21]

i'm alive to the 4,5,6/3,9 in the pk4 good prices to start see if it hits

[mikemca]

good info. will remember this. Is this good on any track or mainly Sar, nyra?

Any time he has one but he rarely ventures away from Belmont,Aqueduct,Saratoga.

[mikemca]

gotta play P4s

[bigcat21]

Will pays
3-$972.50
9-$976.50

[mikemca]

Looking like around $1,950 with either 9 or 3

[bigcat21]

will take it and run love this sport turn 36 dollars into 972.50

thanks for the thought of the four in the 1st leg

[mikemca]

nice... congrats

[getthatheadup]

congrats bigcat! you sweat a little over that inquiry? lol

[bigcat21]

thanks little vacation money, will take a shot at that carryover tomorrow for the pk6