Jbex plays

[JJJ]

Damn the ponies have been brutal to you...hope you turn it around good luck

[JBEX]

Damn the ponies have been brutal to you...hope you turn it around good luck

thanks.. bad days are part of it and last couple have been that

[JBEX]

churchill

R3 #9 kneedeepinsnow (20-1)
R4 #2 hidden scroll (9-5)
R5 #1 live young (10-1)
R6 #7 marley's freedom (7-5)
R7 #9 environs (8-1)
R8 #9 uncontested (10-1)


again derby picks from other thread

#6 vekoma
#16 game winner



R14 #10 methodical (12-1)

[JBEX]

added last race at churchill

[JBEX]

the owner/breeder of maximum security also bred the sire who they sold to brazilian interests earlier this year..the sire, new year's day, I believe is only 8 years old.. the sire's sire is street cry (zenyatta, winx, street sense to name a few).. can't be feeling too good about that either.. right call by the rules but a shame as he was the best horse

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/bloodstock/breeders-cup-juvenile-winner-new-years-day-relocated-to-brazil/

[JBEX]

just like to say this about maximum security..understand why he's bet 4/4,big margins,big figures..his only route race prior was his last race in the floride derby..he was on the lead all the way around in a pace that was about 12 lengths slower than par according to brisnet figures..that was a pretty incredible effort in the derby considering that..if you use pace figures to make your decision be hard to use him..as a matter of fact he'd be the perfect play against because the last thing the masses are going to care about is the pace in his last race was very slow..they probably looked more at the only time he ran in the mud in his 2nd start he won by over 6 lengths "wrapped up" according to the comment line..trainer one of these guys who gets outerworldly results with his stock (which was brought up in post race coverage indirectly by saying establishment has something against him)and to me reading between the lines a bit with pace figures this would fall into line with that to some degree..the best out to me is he really likes the mud but considering everything
i'm a little suspicious of this effort from a handicapping perspective

[JBEX]

just like to say this about maximum security..understand why he's bet 4/4,big margins,big figures..his only route race prior was his last race in the floride derby..he was on the lead all the way around in a pace that was about 12 lengths slower than par according to brisnet figures..that was a pretty incredible effort in the derby considering that..if you use pace figures to make your decision be hard to use him..as a matter of fact he'd be the perfect play against because the last thing the masses are going to care about is the pace in his last race was very slow..they probably looked more at the only time he ran in the mud in his 2nd start he won by over 6 lengths "wrapped up" according to the comment line..trainer one of these guys who gets outerworldly results with his stock (which was brought up in post race coverage indirectly by saying establishment has something against him)and to me reading between the lines a bit with pace figures this would fall into line with that to some degree..the best out to me is he really likes the mud but considering everything
i'm a little suspicious of this effort from a handicapping perspective

delaware


R3 #5 lawn dart (8-5)
R4 #5 beacos disco pants (6-1)
R6 #5 very charming (5-2)

R8 #3 moon virginia (6-1)

last 8 route starts 2 wins, 2 seconds and 3 thirds including a win and loss by a half length last two starts.. within a length of +2 length fast pace so another positive.. trainer 51/204 with horses who won last out.. best jockey on the mid atlantic circuit (trevor mccarthy) rides again.. it's an ocn3x alw and she must run for a tag to qualify.. kind of like that as she's already gotten through the condition and only one other has in this 6 horse field.. claimed from hamilton smith by dale capuano 4 starts back.. two guys I know str is very familiar with



louisiana downs


R5 #3 malasong (5-2)
R6 #4 tashkent (8-1)
R7 #3 warned (7-2)

[JBEX]

added delaware 8

[JBEX]

added louisiana downs

[JBEX]

thistledown

R1 #6 home power (8-1)

how about an 0-42 florida bred who's been running against bottom level maiden claimers at gulfstream being privately purchased and will attempt to run against even cheaper maiden claimers at this venue lol.. his last 3 races were on turf but 2 of the last 3 dirt would make him competitive vs this field


R3 #6 dahik (5-2)

claimed last start out of a clm 16kn2l at oaklawn in which he came in 2nd by a neck..prior race 4th by a length at 30kn2l..good fit for an entry level allowance at thistledown..top jockey rides but not sure the really bad trainer will be enough of a distraction to get a decent price



R8 #3 colony classic (6-1)






indiana


R1 #1 keen gizmo (4-1)
R2 #7 quiet dude (2-1)
R6 #7 my girl rocket (3-1)



louisiana


R4 #7 tiz good (6-1)

[JBEX]

going to look at rest of tdn, lad and Indiana.. except for the 1st at indiana (2:15) and races I already posted at tdn everything is after 2:30...probably won't have anything up till around 1:30

[JBEX]

finished thistledown (added R8) and did 3 races at indiana and that'll be it for there.. possibly 1 or 2 from lad later

[JBEX]

added louisiana 4...done

[JBEX]

indiana


R3 #8 fever temple (9-2)
R4 #6 goldenpence (5-2)
R5 #2 speed effect (6-1)
R7 #2 cake ina can (5-1)

part of an entry with same jockey named




monticello

R2 #1 vaganova (5-2)
R5 #1 chappy hour (3-1)



thistledown


R1 #6 orbital flag (7-2)

possibly 1 or 2 more but not before R6.. going to look at louisiana also(4:15)

[JBEX]

added thistledown 1

[JBEX]

flash flood watch louisiana and don't like last 3 @ tdn .. done today

[JBEX]

belmont

R3 #8 mythajacul (30-1)
R4 #1 traffic stop (8-1)
R7 #3 entry (4-1) like both.. diff jocks named
R8 #5 rocketry (9-5)
R9 #8 sadie lady (9-2)



pimlico

R2 #6 just one not two (5-1)

half sibling broke maiden 2nd out with this rider aboard.. it was on 6/30/2017 as a 2yo so even those this is a debut horse good to know sibling won early (this is a 2yo)..interesting that trainer (same owner/breeder) has another first time starter (#1) who's by the same sire as this ones half sibling.. this one by new year's day who's the sire of maximum security and an above avg first out sire

my research.. not just rewritten



R4 #3 promote (3-1)
R6 #9 awesome agenda (3-1)



churchill

R5 #2 finer things (9-2)
R6 #6 trapezoid (6-1) 666
R8 #2 zaevion (9-2)

[JBEX]

added pimlico 2 4 6

[JBEX]

added churchill 5 6 8

[JBEX]

didnt like what I saw at belmont and pimlico


churchill


R3 #3 hassle (6-1)r

R5 #5 buster brown boy (10-1)
R6 #4 say it ain't so (7-2)
R8 #2 traveling (20-1)
R9 #6 gins and tins (8-1)

[JBEX]

finished churchill

[JBEX]

belmont

R4 peter pan grade 3

#3 global campaign (8-5)

being close to the fast pace 8n the fountain of youth too much for him..like two efforts before that and gets to try a 1 1/8 going one turn at the only place you can do that..curlin out of an ap indy mare and think this one will be belmont stakes bound

R5 #1 calamity cat (6-1)
R8 #6 pallas athene (15-1)

R10 man o' war grade 1

#2 zulu alpha (4-1)

1 3/8 mile turf would seem to be perfect distance going by the 1 1/2 efforts..should be nicely legged up off last race an has come back in 3 weeks and ran big both times in his last ten races..castellano rides


R11 #8 wicked grin (7-2)


monmouth

R5 #3 amarone (6-1)


combination of bad posts and better company have compromised her chances in first 3 races...capable turf rider,better draw and shaded form.. could see a wake up today


R8 #3 true prosperity (7-2)

caught an extremely fast group of statebred maidens at aqueduct in january.. comes to monmouth for 2nd career start and faces much weaker competition (mdn clm 25k).. all speed pedigree and its modest enough that the drop doesn't bother me


R9 #7 black tonight (7-2)

should whoop this bunch at 3-2


R11 #2 compagno

I get a jockey who's 0/17 on the turf this year but the horse fits very well.. like the even turf sprint vs open 50k claimers at aqueduct last out as a stretchout race and many of her past 2 turn turf attempts fit well here.. monmouth a step down from fairgrounds imo


churchill

R6 #3 wetumka (5-1)
R7 #7 impossible mission (12-1)
R8 #6 lucky union (12-1)

R10 #1 iva (12-1)
R10 #2 raintree starlett (20-1)

.75 units each

R11 #7 dos vinos (8-1)

[JBEX]

did monmouth

[JBEX]

did churchill

[JBEX]

churchill

R1 #5 dantu (4-1)
R2 #2 colour guard (6-1)


R5 #8 michael t (6-1)
R7 #6 pure speculation (10-1)


R8 #1 true dream (8-1)
R10 #2 queen's mason (20-1)



belmont


R9 #10 daddy knows


off the turf race.. debut horse with really big pedigree especially for a NY bred (homebred so not sold cheap) .. overall and for the slop.. linda rice with lezcano big time combo and both tearing it up at the meet.. hopefully they're looking for more than just exercise with the sloppy conditions



santa anita

R6 #1 scrambled (5-1)

heard kurt hoover on tvg say he liked this horse a lot and I definitely agree


R8 #5 chay up and away (5-1)
R9 #2 opus won (6-1)

[JBEX]

added 5 7

[JBEX]

finished churchill

[JBEX]

added belmont 9

[JBEX]

added santa anita 6 8 9

[JBEX]

louisiana downs... monday



R1 #2 don't be foolish (6-1)
R4 #7 hello i'm here (10-1)
R5 #7 gifted richter (2-1)

lad.. statebred mcl 12.5k @ 5.5-7f
(15 races 10 wins favorite avg price $5.00)
#3 ml favorite @ 9-5 but think mine will go off favorite



finger lakes

R6 #9 very stable genius (4-1)

back of the pack and finished 6th of 8 in a very fast maiden race (about 12 lengths faster than finger lakes par) at aqueduct in her debut.. hit the gate in that race.. homebred by duchessview farms who are longtime ny breeders.. big speed pedigree by posse out of a phone trick mare.. the latter one of the fastest sprinters of the last 50 years


monticello (just for the heck of it)

R8 #1 entry (5-2) (either half)

[JBEX]

added 1 race at finger lakes

[JBEX]

indiana

R2 #5 mini miles (10-1)
R3 #2 war ballad (10-1)
R4 #3 comes n threes (9-2)
R5 #7 carson kan (2-1)

claimed for a 4th straight time last out and it was by one of the best tom amoss..beat conditioned claimers 2 back at fairgrounds going 5.5f on the turf and gets imo an easier assignment here at oc 25k n1x at indiana (@ 5f turf).. in the fg race he had the lead at the eighth pole so shorter distance shouldn't be a problem


R7 #10 small moment (20-1) crazy

makes 2nd career start which is an excellent angle for this trainer over a large sample of races.. she's also excellent with shippers over a 50 race sample.. ram midpack in a very fast race at keeneland in her debut and definitely a turf pedigree.. avg turf sire
but dam sire is way above average turf and classy to boot.. 2 of her 3 starters have won and both of those won on the lawn.. best turf jockey at the track rides

[JBEX]

indiana downs

R1 #5 d'ark flatter (15-1)
R7 #9 evil eye (5-2)


probably it

[JBEX]

looks like good weather at belmont,pimlico and churchill with the latter having a 5pm post..will be looking at them all

[JBEX]

belmont

R1 #5 amos (3-1)
R2 #2 la vida (10-1)

chad brown has a $1.6M debut horse (#5.. 6-5) that I'd cover with in exacta


R3 #5 hoard (10-1)
R4 pass


R6 #5 hampton point (8-1)
R7 #6 sarrasin (12-1)
R9 #11 frosty linz (20-1)


pimlico (know they're off the turf)

R1 #9 souper courage (4-1)
R2 #1 natasha fatale (9-5)
R3 #2 foggy dreams (7-2)
R4 #8 peak performance (10-1)

not sure he can give one off 16 month layoff with a trainer/owner I never heard of.. good jockey though and it's not a ridiculous drop (open 12.5 to beaten clm 5k).. lightly raced 6yo gelding another positive.. small bet


R5 #7 cairo holiday (9-2)
R9 #5 belmont ride (2-1)


going to work on the later tracks.. belmont 3pm churchill 5 pm