Todays Action, 2008-2009 N.H.L. Thread

[ploben]

...Rarely will I ever risk more then $100 and always give all the winnings to a charity.

What a generous guy....LOL

Parlays are a sucker bet, the break even % is just a joke...it's like playing YO 11 on craps...the odds are $h!+

I was just looking at PHI, BOS, and NYR. By themselves at -175 they have no value, except for maybe PHI. BOS can be beat at home and I haven't seen many NYR games to comment on them. In this case, I can't see laying chalk down on each individual team so instead make a round robin, 2 team parlay, on each combo. Instead of 2 units a team SU, 1 unit each parlay bet.

Maybe I am way off with value in this bet but I wasn't going to book it until you posted because I like to look at your picks and then pound the research on the teams you like.

[TodaysAction]

Thanks TA. U r one helluva dude. So modest. I love it. And just think, u could be on a high horse. Thanks for all your tips and advice. I am gonna learn hockey. I guess I have to be the first black dude in my hood with skates and a stick. LOL. If only we could get some snow.

AdaBarber,

Your welcome, the pleasure is all mine being able to aid/help/teach others about this game. When I first arrived here I made mention that I really liked the N.H.L. and was good at it, it went under the rug by most seeing that I was a newbie (here). When people saw how badly I was doing with football, I guess they thought the same with pucks. No reason to brag or be overly boastful about one's success, if people are interested they'll check out the thread(s) and I will let the results speak for themself most times. If you are good enough to make a team and are the only one of our kind, be ready for some rough times from some of the other players, as many still believe hockey is a white person's game. If you make the team and need equipment of any sort, let me know and I'll take care of it for you. Your "job" is to be ready to go keeping a positive mindset and you'll go further than you ever thought you could or would.

[TodaysAction]

What a generous guy....LOL

Parlays are a sucker bet, the break even % is just a joke...it's like playing YO 11 on craps...the odds are $h!+

I was just looking at PHI, BOS, and NYR. By themselves at -175 they have no value, except for maybe PHI. BOS can be beat at home and I haven't seen many NYR games to comment on them. In this case, I can't see laying chalk down on each individual team so instead make a round robin, 2 team parlay, on each combo. Instead of 2 units a team SU, 1 unit each parlay bet.

Maybe I am way off with value in this bet but I wasn't going to book it until you posted because I like to look at your picks and then pound the research on the teams you like.

I don't know if you're joking or not but have you ever been to a soup kitchen? Do you know how much that $88 (winnings) will help them? I just wish I had more money to give worth while causes similar to this but I have financial responsibilities for my family which prevents it. The people who have to go there for a meal are in a world of hurt. Some are drunks and or addicts (recovering or practicing), while others have lost everything because of the poor economy here.
I've eaten there out of need when I was younger, helped out there as an adult and donate when I can presently.

We're it me, I'd skip the parlay and round robin. If you like them all for a parlay, you might as well play them as singles. Research everything, learn as much as you can about the game, including wagering styles. Find what works best for you and go from there. BOL the remainder of the season.

[ploben]

I don't know if you're joking or not but have you ever been to a soup kitchen?

I'm sorry I thought when you said donating you meant because it is a sucker bet you are just donating your money to the books...I in no way meant to slam the act of giving to the needy. Very noble of you.

My reasoning for this is the following:
I figure one of the three teams will lose, just not sure which one.

Straight Up
$10 (bet) @ -170 = $5.71 (winnings)
$5.71 * 2 (winners) - $10 (loss) = $1.42 (profit)

RR Parlay
$10 (each bet) @ +140 (roughly) = $14 (winnings)
$14 * 2 (winners) - $10 (loss) = $18 (profit)

Now of course this takes into consideration the fact that 2 of the 3 teams will win, which I hesitated on. That's why I was going to wait for the picks to come through. The value on the NYR isn't there at -170, more like -140~-150, but they are coming off a W against OTT, and BOS can be beat at home but I don't think they lose tonight.

I am nowhere near a wiz at the math side to this but that's just what's been running through my head.

[Axis]

^^
Anyone can be beat at home, but if I'm correct, Boston has only lost one game at Boston. Yes, MTL is a good team, but Boston has proven they are a force at home. They let the least amount of goals in per game, and they are tied with Detroit for scoring per game. Now, if you don't like the vaule that's another story...but they are good at home.

[TodaysAction]

I'm sorry I thought when you said donating you meant because it is a sucker bet you are just donating your money to the books...I in no way meant to slam the act of giving to the needy. Very noble of you.

My reasoning for this is the following:
I figure one of the three teams will lose, just not sure which one.

Straight Up
$10 (bet) @ -170 = $5.71 (winnings)
$5.71 * 2 (winners) - $10 (loss) = $1.42 (profit)

RR Parlay
$10 (each bet) @ +140 (roughly) = $14 (winnings)
$14 * 2 (winners) - $10 (loss) = $18 (profit)

Now of course this takes into consideration the fact that 2 of the 3 teams will win, which I hesitated on. That's why I was going to wait for the picks to come through. The value on the NYR isn't there at -170, more like -140~-150, but they are coming off a W against OTT, and BOS can be beat at home but I don't think they lose tonight.

I am nowhere near a wiz at the math side to this but that's just what's been running through my head.

Sorry for not being clearer for you with what was listed. Simple misunderstanding, we move forward.

I follow/get/get what you're saying but I am not in favor of parlays or round robins. Games have emotions not just "cold" data. You asked me what I thought of parlays (told you generally not in favor of them), then a couple minutes later you bring them up again. If you choose to go that route I wish you well.

[TodaysAction]

56 ... NYI ... 200/310
51 ... PIT ... 200/310
64 ... OTT ... 200/200
71 ... TAM ... 100/310

[ploben]

...You asked me what I thought of parlays (told you generally not in favor of them), then a couple minutes later you bring them up again. If you choose to go that route I wish you well.

Fair enough. Did not mean to beat a dead horse with my parlay nonsense, just wanted to sort of write out what was going on in my head.

Then you go pick against two of the 3 teams I was looking at today. I will take the subtle hint I was going in the wrong direction. LOL

I didn't like the NYR value @ -170 and definatly don't like it @ -180.

I am a BOS fan but didn't want that to get in the way.

Axis, BOS has lost 4 @ home.

Thanks TA for your work and good info today. I'll probably just back off the RR and go heavy with the Bruins.

[AdaBarber]

TA, u cease to amaze me. Here I am trying to earn some extra cash during the down time of our country and you are willing to aid me in a hockey quest. I did not mean to misinform you or mislead you. I am 36 years old. I was using that reference as a metaphor as for me to learn how to gamble on hockey. But you did catch my attention. I live in South Carolina and hockey is definitely not a sport and I am a sport guy. How bout teaching hockey in the south?

I am about to leave right now because my wife is going into labor for our first born. And he is a boy. And I want him to be able to handle a book just as well as a basketball or a hockey stick and right wingers pads!

I thank you graciously. And I thought Obama was the only miracle!

[Axis]

Fair enough. Did not mean to beat a dead horse with my parlay nonsense, just wanted to sort of write out what was going on in my head.

Then you go pick against two of the 3 teams I was looking at today. I will take the subtle hint I was going in the wrong direction. LOL

I didn't like the NYR value @ -170 and definatly don't like it @ -180.

I am a BOS fan but didn't want that to get in the way.

Axis, BOS has lost 4 @ home.

Edit: And congrats on having a child AdaBarber!!

Thanks TA for your work and good info today. I'll probably just back off the RR and go heavy with the Bruins.

Yea, my bad. I totally read the wrong column on my sheet haha.

Edit: Congrats of the first child AdaBarber!

[TodaysAction]

^^
Anyone can be beat at home, but if I'm correct, Boston has only lost one game at Boston. Yes, MTL is a good team, but Boston has proven they are a force at home. They let the least amount of goals in per game, and they are tied with Detroit for scoring per game. Now, if you don't like the vaule that's another story...but they are good at home.

Axis,

My apologies for not "recognizing" your comment earlier. Heading into tonight's game both teams were ranked too close to even attempt to pick a winner, side or total. The only thing that my way showed was a lean towards the Bruins and it wasn't even "strong" enough for a $50 (one-half unit) play. I look forward to watching tis game later tonight after the TAM/SJ game. BOS at home to date this season is very tough but can be beaten, as their now 17-3-1 home record indicates, just like any other club on any given day/night and unless they have a complete melt down should have little trouble with their first round opponent whomever it would be. BOL the remainder of the season.

[ploben]

1 to 10 TA...how strong do you think your TB play is tonight?

[TodaysAction]

TA, u cease to amaze me. Here I am trying to earn some extra cash during the down time of our country and you are willing to aid me in a hockey quest. I did not mean to misinform you or mislead you. I am 36 years old. I was using that reference as a metaphor as for me to learn how to gamble on hockey. But you did catch my attention. I live in South Carolina and hockey is definitely not a sport and I am a sport guy. How bout teaching hockey in the south?

I am about to leave right now because my wife is going into labor for our first born. And he is a boy. And I want him to be able to handle a book just as well as a basketball or a hockey stick and right wingers pads!

I thank you graciously. And I thought Obama was the only miracle!

AdaBarber,

What's wrong with trying to help a fellow human enjoy life a little more? Nothing if you ask me. I know what's it was like growing up without having new sports equipment and while my poppa did what he could with us there always wasn't enough money for getting things like this every year. One fall/winter while playing hockey at the park I ended up breaking all four of my new sticks I had gotten for the season (going home after each one). When the last one broke and I told pops he said he was sorry but there's not enough money to go buy you another stick so I ended up not playing the rest of the winter. During that time I still went to see them play but something caught my eye about the goalies. I took a paper route shortly thereafter and started saving my money for a goalie stick and equipment. By the time fall/winter came back the following year I was ready and spent my time between the pipes. My high school (suburbs) had gotten a hockey team and I'd go there watch them practice and see there games. Over the next couple years I got to know the coaches there and was given some great one on one lessons for a net-minder take into account at that time I was still in middle school. By the time I was a freshman I was ready to start on the varsity team from day one. The first couple games were brutal as we got buried. After the last one (fourth) I went to the coach and told him I think it'd be better for the team if I didn't start the next game. He told me not to worry about it because he knew I could do the job. Long story short, we lost only once more that season and six more over the last three years. And this all goes back to because I was given an opportunity to play the game. That's all I was going for, to let you have the same chance that was given to me.

Give SC a chance it might surprise you as people become more familiar with the game. A similar situation happened with my family and I when we lived in the Tampa area when they first played at the Thunderdome (St. Pete) and I still have some of the season tickets and other "collectibles" from their first season. Do any of the sports radio jocks talk about hockey? If not, bring it up daily if needed to let them know you (and others) are interested in it.

May your son be born free of all defects, remain healthy his entire life, take all that is good from his parents and have a fofilled life. Read to your boy DAILY, it will help. Congratulations!

[TodaysAction]

1 to 10 TA...how strong do you think your TB play is tonight?

ploben,

It is strong enough for a one unit play (on my system).

[ploben]

It is interesting to look at the numbers and stats and see the power ranking saying they should be a +180.

You can't win every game, let's hope it's a 1 dog night.

[TodaysAction]

It is interesting to look at the numbers and stats and see the power ranking saying they should be a +180.

You can't win every game, let's hope it's a 1 dog night.

Time to settle in for a good game (I hope).
Best part about the game it no matter the outcome, profit was obtained tonight.

[brooks85]

So out of curiosity.. since your system has had some great success relatively early this month, does that change the bets in your system? Or do you just follow the system exactly no matter how many units you are up/down.

Just wondering, cause I remember reading that the month Win/Loss ratio usually evens out. So I figured if your up a certain amount in units, you risk less right? Does that make sense or no?

[TodaysAction]

So out of curiosity.. since your system has had some great success relatively early this month, does that change the bets in your system? Or do you just follow the system exactly no matter how many units you are up/down.

Just wondering, cause I remember reading that the month Win/Loss ratio usually evens out. So I figured if your up a certain amount in units, you risk less right? Does that make sense or no?

Good morning brooks85,

In order of your questions, here are the answers:
1. No. The method/selection process/system/your term do the "grunt" work for me.
2. Correct. Being up or down does not change the process.
3. False. The indicators/results of the
method/selection process/system/your term remove but only a couple of minor steps. For example, reading the result(s) correctly and taking that information to the charts and obtaining the information. Think of a chart/table, in simplest terms, that has four rows and columns and let's say the result tells me second row, third column - if I don't read from the correct location things could go wrong very quick. After making some human reading mistakes over the years, I began using line fill/shading every other row to remove the majority of them. This may not work for you and or others but it does the job here.
4. Yes, it does.

Something to remember, a high rate of success does not always mean you have a profit. This season through last night's action I'm winning at 51%. A person who flat bets will be down however because I don't go that route I'm up 342.16 units. Which would you rather have a winning record over 53% and down 'x' number of units or 51% win rate and up 342.16 units? Even if the person is up from the 53% win rate, they are no where even remotely close to being up over 342.16 units. Everyone has to make the choice as to which path/road they'll take. Yes, there are advantages and disadvantages to both until one has raised their game to the point where they can make it in the world without doing the 'normal' 9 to 5 thing. BOL with your action the remainder of the season.

[TodaysAction]

Tuesday's action went 2-2-0 and was +$210.

Record for January is 35-19-0.
Money for January is +$8,463.

Overall season to date record is 175-168-2.
Overall money to date is +$34,216.

Wednesday's action will be listed later.

[AdaBarber]

Thanks TA. Keep up the good work. I believe in karma and you will continue to reap the benefits of your caring actions. God bless and I will always keep your advice at heart.

Now let's cash these tickets on these pucks.

[brooks85]

Hey thanks for explaining that and my bankroll says thank you for your picks .

[TodaysAction]

Thanks TA. Keep up the good work. I believe in karma and you will continue to reap the benefits of your caring actions. God bless and I will always keep your advice at heart.

Now let's cash these tickets on these pucks.

AdaBarber,

You're welcome. Hope all went well with the delivery. If ya needs anything, holla.

[TodaysAction]

Hey thanks for explaining that and my bankroll says thank you for your picks .

Your welcome and tell your bankroll it owes you and your family a nice dinner this weekend. I'll freely admit I don't it all but I know that how this is done works. Continued success this season to ya.

[cruzanbeast]

Any thoughts on tonight's games?

[TodaysAction]

Any thoughts on tonight's games?

Funny you should ask. As I was getting ready to post them got a call from a family member from the home land and walked away from the computer and had everyone speak to their great grandfather. See next post for what you're looking for. Sorry you had to wait.

[TodaysAction]

6 ... CHI ... 185/100
7 ... DET ... 800/500
7 ... DET OVER 3 ... 230/200
7 ... DET -1' ... 200/360

[Axis]

^
Wish I could get -1...place I use only gives -1.5...but I'm switching places soon.

G/L on your bets...I'm with you on Detroit/Chi-Town

[AdaBarber]

Thanks a lot Axis. Now lets go cash some pucks.

[AdaBarber]

TA, everything went well in the delivery room. One of the easiest labors I have ever seen(like I have actually seen a lot). 6.2 pounds, feet 8cm, length 20 inches, and came to us at 2:32PM. I will honor my responsibility as a father to make him a person who we can all be proud of. Thanks fellas for the warm wishes.

[brooks85]

congratulations I wish all the best for you and your family.

[Axis]

Put a Red Wings jersey on him haha

[sharks09]

6 ... CHI ... 185/100
7 ... DET ... 800/500
7 ... DET OVER 3 ... 230/200
7 ... DET -1' ... 200/360

Well done today TA . Last night i went to the books and put $400 on detroit, and was very much reassured when i saw your picks haha.
Todays Action for me went much as planned going 4/4 with each game - hopefully it keeps going

[TodaysAction]

^
Wish I could get -1...place I use only gives -1.5...but I'm switching places soon.

G/L on your bets...I'm with you on Detroit/Chi-Town

I hear that. I know it doesn't apply here and now but for bases you can create a -1 line (-2' one book and +1' another). Glad to see you were able to make some along the way.

[TodaysAction]

TA, everything went well in the delivery room. One of the easiest labors I have ever seen(like I have actually seen a lot). 6.2 pounds, feet 8cm, length 20 inches, and came to us at 2:32PM. I will honor my responsibility as a father to make him a person who we can all be proud of. Thanks fellas for the warm wishes.

Congratulations (again). Enjoy your new role in the family. Although the hospital newborn pictures are over priced, it's something worth having. With today's tech skills, you can easily make several equally as good, if not better, copies. May sound "sappy" but I carry a couple pictures of each of my children with me in my wallet. One from the day they were born and one of the most current one I have. Treasure your prince so that one day he will become king.

[TodaysAction]

Well done today TA . Last night i went to the books and put $400 on detroit, and was very much reassured when i saw your picks haha.
Todays Action for me went much as planned going 4/4 with each game - hopefully it keeps going

Thank you. Glad you cashed and had a perfect day. Well done.