DG's 2013 Thread

[DennisGreen]

Yea! Good call playing specifically the 1st period total. Woulda been toast if you bet any of the other possible overs (2nd, 3rd, Game, TT's, 1st 10min). you bet the one single over that won. The overs combined went 1-5-1 (if bos tt was 3). Great call on the 1st period angle. Unders went 5-1, but you had the one period it went over! Nice! I never bet 1st period lines bc i have no experience doing it and really know nothing about how to differentiate which periods to bet totals in or how the probability distributions vary across 1st, 2nd, 3rd periods. Does 1st period have more goals statistically in long run than 2nd and 3rd? Is this probability not reflected in the odds? As someone with some statistical experience, i am interested in analyzing some data on records of 1st period overs verus 2nd, 3rd period, game. Good call on the 1st period line though.

when you play the under on the game you just gotta ride the clock out. That's what i was saying last night. No matter if goals scored early, you're never guaranteed more goals. Your bet is a winning ticket until that 6th goal is scored. You're never down and out until your chips are all gone. And they aint all gone until after that 6th goal is in the back of the net.

Nice start for you today.

The 1st is historically the lowest scoring period of the 3 every year

So you could call my bet winning quite lucky. I look at 1st period goals for and against and especially like them in rivalry type games where both teams usually come out hot.

[DennisGreen]

PIT/TOR Over 5.5 (-133)

MIN/NAS Under 4.5 (+135)

[hockey216]

The 1st is historically the lowest scoring period of the 3 every year

So you could call my bet winning quite lucky. I look at 1st period goals for and against and especially like them in rivalry type games where both teams usually come out hot.

interesting. But that raises the question that, If you're gonna bet the over, why wouldn't you want to bet the period with the highest probability of winning?

[DennisGreen]

interesting. But that raises the question that, If you're gonna bet the over, why wouldn't you want to bet the period with the highest probability of winning?

Chalk. 2nd and 3rd period overs are routinely -160 to -200ish.

[hockey216]

PIT/TOR Over 5.5 (-133)

MIN/NAS Under 4.5 (+135)

4.5 is low lol. Nashville's PK is the big concern with this. It's awful. and uh-oh, i'm never gonna hear the end of it if you lose this under. What's the juice on 5? if its -110 might be worth it to take the 5. But, before you quote me on that, i'd need to know probability that it lands on 5 to calculate the exact adjustment to ML. 4.5 low total. Nashville's PK sucks.

I didn't mean bet the under today or any specific game on sheet right now. i was just trying to tell you not to throw in the towel on unders yet. In general, you can look for good angles on unders just like you can on overs. There's teams/matchups that favor the over (PHL/PIT, TB/PIT, PHL/TB, etc.), just like there's matchups where the under looks good on paper. Don't fire if you don't like the angle obviously. It's your money bet it how you want. I just wanted you to see the psychology of the other side. Was speaking about unders in general sense, not trying to pressure you into betting u4.5.

4.5 is low as hell. Losing on 5 is tough because even if you got a 2-1 game, one goal loses you the bet if team behind scores. That's tough. Winning (or pushing) on 5 is important value. lot of 3-2 games out there, because you get prob that its 3-2, plus the prob that it ends 2-2, which the latter gets automatically transformed into 3-2 because of OT. 5 is an important # when you cross it either way. Like 3,7 in fotball.

[hockey216]

Chalk. 2nd and 3rd period overs are routinely -160 to -200ish.

Ahh, yes. thats what i wanted to know. If the probabilities are different for each period, the ML would have to vary too, otherwise there could be arbitrage opportunity, depending on what the probabilities of hitting are.

[DennisGreen]

4.5 is low lol. Nashville's PK is the big concern with this. It's awful. and uh-oh, i'm never gonna hear the end of it if you lose this under. What's the juice on 5? if its -110 might be worth it to take the 5. But, before you quote me on that, i'd need to know probability that it lands on 5 to calculate the exact adjustment to ML. 4.5 low total. Nashville's PK sucks.

I didn't mean bet the under today or any specific game on sheet right now. i was just trying to tell you not to throw in the towel on unders yet. In general, you can look for good angles on unders just like you can on overs. There's teams/matchups that favor the over (PHL/PIT, TB/PIT, PHL/TB, etc.), just like there's matchups where the under looks good on paper. Don't fire if you don't like the angle obviously. It's your money bet it how you want. I just wanted you to see the psychology of the other side. Was speaking about unders in general sense, not trying to pressure you into betting u4.5.

4.5 is low as hell. Losing on 5 is tough because even if you got a 2-1 game, one goal loses you the bet if team behind scores. That's tough. Winning (or pushing) on 5 is important value. lot of 3-2 games out there, because you get prob that its 3-2, plus the prob that it ends 2-2, which the latter gets automatically transformed into 3-2 because of OT. 5 is an important # when you cross it either way. Like 3,7 in fotball.

Under 5 is like -140 I'm not risking that much juice just to secure a push instead of a loss with the 4.5. Ill take the $100 loss and gamble on the 4.5.

Back to back games for Trapville they will likely be relying on Rinne more than normal and trapping hard tonight. Minny also implements the same approach. I'm expecting a 2-1 or 3-1 final.

[DennisGreen]

Ahh, yes. thats what i wanted to know. If the probabilities are different for each period, the ML would have to vary too, otherwise there could be arbitrage opportunity, depending on what the probabilities of hitting are.

I would very rarely lay -200 blind on the 3rd period over for example. The score is key after 2. 3-1 is the best score for 3rd period overs from my experience. Say its 4-0 after 2, not usually a good score to hit the 3rd over.

[darktray]

3-1 final

[DennisGreen]

Decent start but under 5.5/6 is still a

[DennisGreen]

There will not be a goal scored in the 2nd period in TOR

[DennisGreen]

3-2 final

[darktray]

3-2 final

Yuup 3-2 final, the Leafs curse. no chance

[DennisGreen]

Weeeeeeeeee

Will be up at least $400 now today.

[darktray]

[swordsandtequila]

Aaaaaaaaaaaand Toronto scores to bring home the Daily Double, game and team over!! Carolina rolling Jersey, the night has started right!

[swordsandtequila]

And the Bolts are winning to boot! DG, only other hockey play I have tonight is Kings in regulation, Calgary pretty bad on the road. Thoughts?

Edit: Got Carolina in regulation also, up 5-1 so not too concerned with that one, famous last words!

[DennisGreen]

I never should have doubted the Tampa over train there they go!

[DennisGreen]

And the Bolts are winning to boot! DG, only other hockey play I have tonight is Kings in regulation, Calgary pretty bad on the road. Thoughts?

Edit: Got Carolina in regulation also, up 5-1 so not too concerned with that one, famous last words!

Kings have been all over the map but they should get it done.

[swordsandtequila]

Third period will tell if Boucher got through to the Bolts regarding being responsible on the defensive end. We need this win bad from a morale standpoint. 'Grats on the big night!

[DennisGreen]

Very good chance I live bet the over 5.5 in Tampa at some point in the 3rd

[DennisGreen]

Third period will tell if Boucher got through to the Bolts regarding being responsible on the defensive end. We need this win bad from a morale standpoint. 'Grats on the big night!

TY sir

Very true. Yeah I have Tampa in some divisional winner parlays I need them to get hot again.

[swordsandtequila]

F*kng Jersey with 2 quick goals to start the third, figured I mushed myself being over confident, tighten up Canes!

[DennisGreen]

F*kng Jersey with 2 quick goals to start the third, figured I mushed myself being over confident, tighten up Canes!

Don't ever break rule #1: Never celebrate prematurely.

[Vinnie Paz]

You should try out sportsinteraction for some live betting
Theyre slow as shit to react to the game, thus leading to great lines

[DennisGreen]

You should try out sportsinteraction for some live betting
Theyre slow as shit to react to the game, thus leading to great lines

Interesting......

[DennisGreen]

Fcuk me I waited too long. Knew the over 5.5 was free money

It was almost at +$ then I was gonna strike.

[swordsandtequila]

Hope you live bet that over

Whoops, was typing when you posted. 3-2 final for the save

[swordsandtequila]

You should try out sportsinteraction for some live betting
Theyre slow as shit to react to the game, thus leading to great lines

Unfortunately not US friendly. Too bad, rated pretty well, for what that's worth.

[swordsandtequila]

F*king Bolts couldn't get out of their zone with a police escort. Sack up boys!

[DennisGreen]

F*king Bolts couldn't get out of their zone with a police escort. Sack up boys!

Shots are 9-0 MTL midway through the 3rd

Guess they are trying out the trap for the 3rd?

[nammertl]

god i hope toronto wins with an overtime goal so i can unload on their next match. this could be a rivalry similar to philly/pitt

[DennisGreen]

Wow what a meltdown by Tampa

[DennisGreen]

[nammertl]

lol i know what you erased and why you erased.