DG's 2013 Thread

[DennisGreen]

Salami over is a gigantic lock at this point.

I can't even jinx this one I am pre-destined to lose 90% of any under bets I make.

[matt1216]

Have faith guys. Couple shut out periods and yur back on track

[DennisGreen]

This is absolutely comical

Every single 1st period has gone over.

[matt1216]

This is absolutely comical

Every single 1st period has gone over.

Ya dubnyk let up a goal from centre!!!!! Cloutier!, is that u! Lol

[DennisGreen]

Ya dubnyk let up a goal from centre!!!!! Cloutier!, is that u! Lol

Good ol' Clouts.

[hockey216]

FML

Thanks for the warning I may lay off their overs for a few games at least to see if they decide to change their playing style.

well, they still have a good powerplay and good offensive weapons. and their goalie is still mediocre. games could go over. Boucher was furious because at end of game on boston powerplay, tampa raced up and got a 3-on-2 shorthanded chance. missed the net, puck went around. 2-on-1 boston. bergeron to marchand goal. he was pissed they were trying to race up and score goals when shorthand. if you hit the net on that 3-on-2 you're fine. but you cant miss the net. if you do puck goes around and its a 2-on-1 or 3-on-1 the other way. happens every time. cant send 3 guys deep in the offensive zone by the hash marks when killing penalties.

who knows what effect it will have on overs. but guy boucher says he wants to become more defensively solid team. either way, their powerplay will still be very strong and their goaltending will still be mediocre. games could still go over who knows. stamkos is a scoring machine. but Boucher made it clear he wants to clean up the stupid offensive gambles.

[matt1216]

Col lighting up chi town now, please end this horseshoe of a streak

[DennisGreen]

Done with unders they're fcuking retarded. Oilers are a fcuking embarrassment. They're a legit AHL team right now.

[DennisGreen]

Wow might wanna pull Crawford there Hawks. Figured their streak would come to an end in a slaughtering like this at some point.

[matt1216]

ya had a feelin oilers were gonna get pumped.... Nash -180 after getting dummied on the road for the past 10 days. Just keep pading the oilers......there going nowhere!! In the Words of Jim Mora......."Playoffs!, are kidding me?! I hope we just win another game!"

[PuckIt]

This is absolutely comical

Every single 1st period has gone over.

I came here for the sole purpose of making this absurd statement. Particularly on the day that I am on the Salami under, too.

No chance the Salami stays under tonight

[PuckIt]

Chicago is probably gonna pull Crawford with like 3min left and it's probably going to add at least another 2 goals to the salami

[PuckIt]

yep there we go

[DennisGreen]

It's all over once Calgary scores

Only gonna lose $200 today but under losses tilt me so bad for some reason.

[snakie]

No chance of Viktor Fasth getting a shutout tonight

[DennisGreen]

2-0 Ducks. No goals to give. It is alllllllll overrrrrrrr!

[DennisGreen]

0-2 -$211 on the night.

I would like to give UNDERS a big, gigantic fcuk you. Overs > Unders. Hitting 2.5% career on unders now I believe. There's really no point in me playing them anymore.

[DennisGreen]

0-2 -$211 on the day.

2013 Overall Record
101-106-5 +$622.50

LIVE BETS: 29-16 +$2437.50
TOTALS: 20-21-4 +$300
GRAND SALAMI: 2-1 +$300
MONEYLINES: 8-10 -$38
1ST PERIOD: 28-36 -$109
REGULATION: 0-2 -$150
2 TEAMERS: 3-8 -$472
TEAM TOTALS: 11-12-1 -$1646


$50
3-5 +$42.50


49-64-2 -$1060


37-28-3 +$816


7-8 -$1176


5-1 +$2000

[PuckIt]

Won the salami over yesterday by one goal and now I lose the under bby one. GGambling gods for sure!

[hockey216]

Done with unders they're fcuking retarded.

Last time i try to lecture you on unders i promise.

Since most of the games you bet the over in actually ended up going under, you may want to reconsider.

San Jose, Ottawa, Nashville have been cash cows for under bets this year. You'd be rich if you had been betting the under on them every game.

losing grand salami by 1.5 goals isnt that bad. If there wasn't 8 goals in blackhawks game you woulda been fine. You could have had 6 goals in that blackhawks game and still won your under bet. one really high scoring game burnt you. 8 goal games are somewhat infrequent. unfortunate that it happened the one night you fired.

don't cancel the party on unders quite yet. I think your sample size is small because you never bet unders because you have bad memories. losing a grand salami bet by 1.5 goals is really close. There are a lot of games and teams in the nhl that have value on the under. Look for some matchups where you think there will be low scoring games. I think its easier to pick unders than overs. scoring is an inconsistent part of the game. Playing great defense isn't it. The top defensive teams play good defense night in and night out. You know what you're gonna get. The best goaltenders play strong night in and night out too. When it comes to scoring goals, however, you never know. Scoring is somewhat inconsistent in my opinion.

Games go under all the time. Don't put too much emphasis on a single bet. Remember all the over team totals you bet that lost all your live betting profit. Look for teams with average offense, but good defense, great goaltending, and great penalty kills.

ottawa, san jose, nashville have been cash cow unders this year. Believe it or not, SJ has improved it's penalty kill. I couldn't imagine it'd be that bad for that long without them doing anything to correct it.

And keep in mind that most of the over bets you've made actually went under too. Woulda been nice if you were on the under side for all those games.

Unders for life!

It's funny that me and you are the exact opposite. i love unders and hate overs. you love overs and hate unders. haha.

[DennisGreen]

Last time i try to lecture you on unders i promise.

Since most of the games you bet the over in actually ended up going under, you may want to reconsider.

San Jose, Ottawa, Nashville have been cash cows for under bets this year. You'd be rich if you had been betting the under on them every game.

losing grand salami by 1.5 goals isnt that bad. If there wasn't 8 goals in blackhawks game you woulda been fine. You could have had 6 goals in that blackhawks game and still won your under bet. one really high scoring game burnt you. 8 goal games are somewhat infrequent. unfortunate that it happened the one night you fired.

don't cancel the party on unders quite yet. I think your sample size is small because you never bet unders because you have bad memories. losing a grand salami bet by 1.5 goals is really close. There are a lot of games and teams in the nhl that have value on the under. Look for some matchups where you think there will be low scoring games. I think its easier to pick unders than overs. scoring is an inconsistent part of the game. Playing great defense isn't it. The top defensive teams play good defense night in and night out. You know what you're gonna get. The best goaltenders play strong night in and night out too. When it comes to scoring goals, however, you never know. Scoring is somewhat inconsistent in my opinion.

Games go under all the time. Don't put too much emphasis on a single bet. Remember all the over team totals you bet that lost all your live betting profit. Look for teams with average offense, but good defense, great goaltending, and great penalty kills.

ottawa, san jose, nashville have been cash cow unders this year.

And keep in mind that most of the over bets you've made actually went under too. Woulda been nice if you were on the under side for all those games.

Unders for life!

It's funny that me and you are the exact opposite. i love unders and hate overs. you love overs and hate unders. haha.

Yeah yeah I was just pissed off at the time. I can't stand checking scores when I bet unders. Seems like the goalies have off nights when I bet unders (see Dubynk center ice goal at end of 1st tonight). I won't give up just yet on unders. TT unders actually look pretty promising to me I will mostly be sticking to these for under plays.

I prefer to start off losing (overs) then to start off winning and have your dreams shattered later on. At least with overs I pretty well know where I'm at most of the game. With unders you are never safe

Half the fun of gambling for me is the rush I get from watching and having an over hit. Shits like a drug. Unders are no fun. It's just a constant state of cringing every shot that goes towards the goalie. Too stressful. That's why overs will always make up the majority of my plays

[hockey216]

Yeah yeah I was just pissed off at the time. I can't stand checking scores when I bet unders. Seems like the goalies have off nights when I bet unders (see Dubynk center ice goal at end of 1st tonight). I won't give up just yet on unders. TT unders actually look pretty promising to me I will mostly be sticking to these for under plays.

I prefer to start off losing (overs) then to start off winning and have your dreams shattered later on. At least with overs I pretty well know where I'm at most of the game. With unders you are never safe

Half the fun of gambling for me is the rush I get from watching and having an over hit. Shits like a drug. Unders are no fun. It's just a constant state of cringing every shot that goes towards the goalie. Too stressful. That's why overs will always make up the majority of my plays

when you're looking for a under bet with value, excellent goaltending is definitely a variable to consider. If you've been burnt by mediocre goalies taking a shit in net, try to isolate teams with top goaltending. (and defense, penalty kill).

What about the rush of the under, knowing that you won the bet from the start of the game until that 6th or 7th goal finally comes. 6 goals is a lot of goals. Take it one goal at a time. Watching the clock tick is like hearing a cash register. That's my drug when it comes to gambling. The clock is your friend. Every second that bleeps off the clock increases your probability of winning exponentially. When you bet the over, every second that goes by reduces your probability of winning (exponentially decays). When i bet under, every second that my clock on the wall goes, "tick, tick, tick" my brain transforms the sound into "cha-ching, cha-ching, cha-ching"

when i bet an under and it's 0-0 or 1-0 end of 1st, i start hearing the cash register in my head go off. Sure, you can get beat later in the game. You can also look awful with lot of early goals, and have a scoreless 3rd to be your late game rush. I've had it 3-2 after 2 periods when i had u5.5, thinking i was toast, then had a scoreless 3rd period and got a huge late-game rush. My high with unders is that you WON the bet from the beginning of the game, and continue to have won the bet, until that last losing 6th goal comes and rips it out of your hands. Your ticket starts out as a winning ticket, and as long as you don't see that 6th goal scored, you win. you get 60 minutes of a high. With overs, goals are the high, what you celebrate. With unders, the clock ticking is the high, what you celebrate. I understand why psychologically hockey fans are accustomed to the dopamine release (rush, high) at the time of goals, and want to place wagers where the adrenaline of the high from the gambling coincides with the high of the excitement of seeing goal scored.

When you bet unders, you ride it out. Don't let a goal or 2 phase you. Time is on your side. Let it keep ticking away. You need a lot of goals in order to lose. Ride it out. You're never down and out until your chips are all gone. IF you bet overs, and theres 7 minutes left in the 1st period left with 0-0 score, you're thinking, "shit. if i dont get real lucky in last 7 minutes, i'm toast. no way 6 goals in last 2 periods." Having a 0-0 first period mean's your over bet lost. Having a 1-0 first period keeps you in the game maybe but you're on thin ice. You gotta get 3 goals in 2nd period or you are toast. And that's just to bring you back from the dead. You still need 2 goals in 3rd period. When 1-0 1st period you need 2.5 goals per period in 2nd and 3rd. 2.5 is a high number for just one period. If you make it 10 minutes into the game without a score, you're looking great to win your under bet. Even if you get a couple early, you are never guaranteed to get any more goals. There might not be. Most of the plays, there aren't goals. 6 goals is a lot for defensive teams. Team in the East like Ottawa, Boston play tight defensive games and give up nothing. Great goaltending too. Lot of 2-1 games and 3-2 games. 3-1 games and 4-1 games are winners too. plus if one team is shut out, that's like automatic winner.

The psychology is different getting used to when you start to bet unders. Time is on your side. Different way of thinking. The dopamine release (high) is not at point of same dopamine release for fans, when goals are scored. It's seeing the clock keep ticking. The psychology of overs/unders is exact opposite. Takes some getting used too. Thats why a lot of players (like myself and you) stick to one side of the total and either play it or lay off. The rushes are equal highs, but different. Me and you are like the same but exact opposite. We both stick to 1 side of the total, and either play that angle or lay off.

Unders may be boring, but overs can be frustrating. Have a 3-2 game and guy misses wide open net in 3rd? Guy has wide open net on pass from 2-on-1, and hits the post? Lots of open net chances on rebounds, but can't capitalize? That frustration can drive you crazy too.

[hockey216]

Sorry for eating up your thread. Don't mean to do that. You know more than i do so i don't mean to be the preacher. I just think you're leaving some money on the table when you walk away from good angles at under bets. You stick to overs because you have a psychology reason. I wanted you to see how the psychology works from the side of the under. If you really hate the psychology of betting unders, i don't want to drive you crazy. Just trying to help you find a new way of thinking psychologically with betting unders.

[hockey216]

Guy Boucher's postgame video against Bruins got deleted. Definitely got removed by lightning staff because he RIPS his team a new asshole. you can find the audio clip and transcript. This might affect totals betting since lightning crazy high scoring team. Potential to be a cash cow over. great offense, great pp, mediocre goaltending. That might not change, despite coach philosphy. we'll have to see how they play. But knowing coach's philosophy that he wants to get rid off offensive gambles and play better defense can help.

Boucher said,

"We gambled and wasted 58 minutes of hard, intelligent, paying the price, work. Against the top team in the conference. We wasted it with a gamble at the end.

On whether it comes down to making sure the team plays smarter on key situations….
It’s coming down to the same thing that’s been going on for years and that what we’re trying to break is that offense first mentality of gamble that we have to get rid of. It’s the same story since the beginning of the year. It’s not just the first year, it was there before and it’s still there so we got to break that.

On how they break it….
Keep hammering it, eventually the hammer will go down deep enough. "

On whether Brendan Mikkelson was hard on himself on that penalty…
No, he tried to lift his stick, it’s a high stick, it happens. We were killing it. They were getting nothing on their power play. There’s thirty seconds left, we throw it down the ice, we take it deep, we kill at least the ten, fifteen seconds or fifteen seconds left of us doing the job in his own entry like we had been doing, and we go in and make a tie, get a point and go in the overtime and then win it. That’s what you do when you know how to win, and that’s why we’re not mature, and that’s why we’ve got a lot of players that need to learn how to win.

On whether he wants Steven Stamkos to use his confidence…
We’re in a penalty kill. Our defensemen jumps into the play on the penalty kill. We’re thinking offense, period. We’re not thinking the right thing on that one. It hits the net no problem. He can’t go above, you’ve seen this a thousand times when they were going, I knew it. I knew it screaming from the bench for our D to stay back. I knew that if the puck misses the net it goes right around and that’s exactly what happened. I’ve seen this so many times. We can’t do that, we just can’t do that. That’s what we get. That’s why we’re not where we want to be, that’s why we’ve got a long road to get where we want to be and until mistakes like the hail mary’s and the zone entries when it’s a tight game at the end of the periods, turnovers at the blue line those are the things we need to learn. The young guys need to learn and the old guys need to show the way. "

[Vinnie Paz]

Good post about unders, literally every time I bet an over it gets stuck 3-2, just can't hit em

[hockey216]

0-2 -$211 on the night.

I would like to give UNDERS a big, gigantic fcuk you. Overs > Unders. Hitting 2.5% career on unders now I believe. There's really no point in me playing them anymore.

If you faded yourself, and switched all your overs for unders just on team totals, you'd have over $3,000 more dollars. You'd be up 1500 instead of down 1646. I understand you're upset about your bet. But look at season as a whole. If you faded yourself, played the under team totals instead of the overs in the games you played, that'd be an extra, FREE $3,000 in cash in your pocket right now. $3,000 for just the team totals. In less than 2 months! That's a lot of money.

[xraygord]

I had the UNDER in CAL ANA last night. I always bet unders, don't see why not. You cheer for saves, and successful PK's and whistles that slow the game down. Never had a problem betting the UNDER.

[DennisGreen]

Good posts hockey216. You have opened my eyes to an under bettors POV. When I've had unders it is fun watching the seconds tick off the clock up until you have no goals left to give or they score 4 in the 1st

Yeah I've done fairly well with game total overs but TT overs have definitely been burning me I won't deny that.

I just actually believe I've cursed on unders based on past results. Will pick games with solid D and goalies on both sides but usually it turns into a 4-3 type game

[Huckleberry Pig]

Good posts hockey216. You have opened my eyes to an under bettors POV. When I've had unders it is fun watching the seconds tick off the clock up until you have no goals left to give or they score 4 in the 1st

Yeah I've done fairly well with game total overs but TT overs have definitely been burning me I won't deny that.

I just actually believe I've cursed on unders based on past results. Will pick games with solid D and goalies on both sides but usually it turns into a 4-3 type game

might also want to see how teams score/defend on the road vs at home. For instance, Calgary had been playing well as of late and scoring lots of goals going into Anaheim last night. Ducks had been playing decent, but other than the night before, had been giving up some goals. However, those goals against the Ducks were on the road and the goals for Calgary were at home. Ducks are actually a top 10 home D while the Calgary really struggle to score on the road. Just something to look at cause seeing the Calgary's last few games I was at first thinking "this should be a high-scoring game". But after some digging I found how few they scored on the road and took the Under.

Not trying to pour salt on the wound lol just wanted to share some info I thought might be helpful

[DennisGreen]

might also want to see how teams score/defend on the road vs at home. For instance, Calgary had been playing well as of late and scoring lots of goals going into Anaheim last night. Ducks had been playing decent, but other than the night before, had been giving up some goals. However, those goals against the Ducks were on the road and the goals for Calgary were at home. Ducks are actually a top 10 home D while the Calgary really struggle to score on the road. Just something to look at cause seeing the Calgary's last few games I was at first thinking "this should be a high-scoring game". But after some digging I found how few they scored on the road and took the Under.

Not trying to pour salt on the wound lol just wanted to share some info I thought might be helpful

Not at all man I am all for constructive criticism

You make good points too.

[DennisGreen]

After all this under talk my first play of today is still gonna be an over though

[Just Enough]

Done with unders they're fcuking retarded. Oilers are a fcuking embarrassment. They're a legit AHL team right now.

im with ya.....that fvckin team got me several times this year.

[Just Enough]

couldn't agree more on the unders, great info guys! very well said. unders are hard and it took me a while to realize that also. its human nature and the love of sports in us all that we want to see alot of scoring in any sport. when you go to a baseball/hockey game do you want see a 1-0 game or a 4-3, 6-5 game? the reality of it though like hockey216 said defense is always a consistent factor. anyway thought i would just throw my 2 cents in, (because that's all i have in my account).

[hockey216]

After all this under talk my first play of today is still gonna be an over though

all good. Do your thing man. I heard you say you like the rush of the overs, so I just wanted to explain the rush when betting unders (like when goalie makes HUGE SAVE) because the psychology is different. Rooting for saves, not goals. cheering on goalies and pk's all game lol. The high is different but i think equally good. Once you hit a few you'll see. It might be boring to watch low scoring game, but there's nothing sexier than cashing a ticket! Look for some matchups with good under teams like SJ, NSH, OTT. PK is a concern with NSH, but even with poor pk they are still #5 fewest goals against. SJ has improved its pk (just shoot me). my last under play was ottawa/boston feb 28; 2-1 final (OT). Played under more for OTT than for BOS. Even if its juiced to under or is at an even 5, still a decent bet in games like that. Look for the defensive-first teams in the Eastern Conference that have good goalies and pk's. Teams in East try to win 2-1 every night. Even 3-2 is winner at 5.5. sorry for lecturing. Know you had some tough beats. Look for some good angles. be patient. Trust your gut. you'll hit some. try a few different strategies to see what works and what doesn't. maybe bet really small in beginning until you get a good feel for it. don't throw in the towel on the unders quite yet. good luck today.

[hockey216]

Oilers are a fcuking embarrassment. They're a legit AHL team right now.

Gave up 6 goals to the lowest-scoring team in the NHL. lol.