CFB 2013 (and some NFL)

[BiffTFinancial]

NFL Week Thirteen
2* Bills/Bucs over 43 (-103)

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Chiefs/Redskins over 44 (-105)

NFL Week Thirteen
2* Bills/Bucs over 43 (-103)
2* Chiefs/Redskins over 44 (-105)

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Niners -2' (-105)
2* Giants/Chargers over 47 (-102)

NFL Week Thirteen updated card
2* Bills/Bucs over 43 (-103)
2* Chiefs/Redskins over 44 (-105) - WINNER
2* Niners -2' (-105)
2* Giants/Chargers over 47 (-102)

[No coincidences]

Congrats to Hot Wings and No Coin and other Sparty backers. MSU played a hell of a game. My in-laws were there with other MSU backers and said that it was an absolute blast. Enjoy.

Suddenly not quite as interested today in this Woody Hayes book that I'm reading...

Still a great year for OSU, Biffer. Surreal moment for MSU. Well worth the wait, though. Fun to see for the many MSU grads I know especially. It's been a long, painful drought.

[BiffTFinancial]

Still a great year for OSU, Biffer. Surreal moment for MSU. Well worth the wait, though. Fun to see for the many MSU grads I know especially. It's been a long, painful drought.

Absolutely, NC. OSU hadn't lost a game in nearly two calendar years. If I can't feel good about that as a fan, that's just no way to live and root for a team. They gave us a lot of great football early on and the promise of perhaps better things. The truth is that Bama would've rolled OSU, and although I'd like to think differently, Noles probably would too. I'll comfort myself figuring that avoiding that program-defining (again) loss will help OSU psychologically in the offseason, and 2014 looks great for them. I've still never gotten over January 9, 2007 title game loss to UF.

Perhaps I'm getting soft, but I'm really happy for Sparty fans. Maybe it's because I know a few. I'm a Buckeye fan but huge Big Ten fan in general, and different teams other than OSU are bound to ride high for periods of time. It's great to see Dantonio and his program get a program-defining win (while OSU avoids a program-defining loss?). I can't help but like teams coached by the likes of Izzo, Dantonio, Bo Ryan and Pat Fitzgerald even.

[BiffTFinancial]

NFL Week Thirteen final card
2* Bills/Bucs over 43 (-103) - LOSER
2* Chiefs/Redskins over 44 (-105) - WINNER
2* Niners -2' (-105) - LOSER
2* Giants/Chargers over 47 (-102) - WINNER

2-2 -0.16u

NFL YTD: 31-34-5 -11.89u

[BiffTFinancial]

took a little break from burning money but have had a chance to spend some time on the bowl games, one of my favorite parts of the year. have worked up initial forecasts on my model for the bowl games and will endeavor to post now in proper format. i'm not that tech savvy. i'd be terrible secretary and not just for that reason.

[BiffTFinancial]

BOWL Teams Spread (Home) Total Initial Forecast Away Home Current Current Winner W L New Mexico Colorado St Wazzu -4 65 CSU 38 36 Las Vegas USC Fresno St 6.5 62 USC 35 30 Famous Idaho Potato Buffalo SDSU 0 53 BUF 30 24 New Orleans UL Lafayette Tulane 0 TUL 27 23 St. Petersburg Ohio E Carolina -14 61.5 ECU 34 26 Hawaii Oregon St Boise 2.5 65 BOI 38 31 Little Caesars Pizza Pitt BGSU -5 50 BG 30 20 Poinsettia Utah St N Illinois -1.5 58 USU 30 26 Military Bowl Marshall Maryland 2.5 61 MSH 35 34 Texas Syracuse Minnesota -4.5 47.5 MIN 27 17 Fight Hunger Washington BYU 3 58.5 UW 34 29 Pinstripe Rutgers Notre Dame -15.5 52.5 ND 30 21 Belk Cincinnati N Carolina -3 56.5 UNC 35 28 Russell Athletic Miami Louisville -3 55.5 UL 26 24 Buffalo Wild Wings Michigan Kansas St -3 55.5 KSU 30 24 Armed Forces MTSU Navy -6 55 NAVY 28 20 Music City Ole Miss Georgia Tech 3 56.5 OLE MISS 28 23 Alamo Texas Oregon -14 67 UO 45 32 Holiday Texas Tech Arizona St -14 69.5 ASU 48 27 Advocare V100 BC Arizona -7.5 57 AZ 28 27 Sun Virginia Tech UCLA -7 47 UCLA 26 13 Liberty Mississippi St Rice 7 50.5 MSU 24 20 CFA Duke Texas A&M -11.5 73.5 A&M 44 37 Gator Nebraska Georgia -9 60.5 UGA 34 30 Heart of Dallas UNLV North Texas -6.5 54.5 NTX 27 26 Capital One Wisconsin S Carolina 0 51 WIS 31 23 Outback Iowa LSU -7 49 IOWA 26 25 Rose Michigan St Stanford -4.5 42.5 STAN 21 17 Fiesta UCF Baylor -15.5 68 BAY 39 30 Sugar Oklahoma Alabama -15 51.5 BAMA 34 14 Orange Clemson Ohio St -2.5 67 OSU 41 32 Cotton Oklahoma St Missou 1 60.5 MISSOU 35 30 Compass Houston Vanderbilt -3 54 HOU 29 23 GoDaddy Arkansas St Ball St -9 63.5 BALL ST 35 30 NCG Auburn Florida St -8.5 67 FSU 44 30

[BiffTFinancial]

Yeah, sure, so it looks as if I had Stanley Kubrick post my initial forecasts. As I said, I'm not secretary material.

[pacocn]

Biff, thanks for the chart, it worked wonders for my pools last year!!!
Also that secretary reference didn't go unnoticed, has nothing to do with excel skills

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff, thanks for the chart, it worked wonders for my pools last year!!!
Also that secretary reference didn't go unnoticed, has nothing to do with excel skills

Thanks, brotha! Yeah, i love pools and bowl season in general. Vandy in Music City Bowl last year was my biggest play in ages. I will be finalizing my forecasts in relatively short order (other than maybe weather-based totals). It's worth noting that i did really well last year, no way do i repeat that.

Those extra rows and columns on the chart are simply to denote extra credibility.

Bama is gonna rip Oklahoma's off.

[BiffTFinancial]

Just got Northcoast Sports/Phil Steele Bowl newsletter, one of my favorite reads of the capping year. We are banging heads early on and agreeing on a lot late.

They like (my initial reaction)
Wazzu (disagree, like CSU TT over 31)
USC/FSU over (agree though ambivalent)
SDSU (disagree)
Tulane (agree)
OU/ECU over (pass but i can see why they like over)
Beavs (disagree but can't fathom a Boise coaching change angle for the life of me)
Pitt (disagree but coaching change; that said, BGSU is veteran team and Pitt is pretty soft)
USU (agree; NIU big letdown and USU excellent defense with time to prep)
Terps (pass)
Cuse/Gophers under (Gophers for me)
UW/BYU over (duh)
Rutgers/ND over (Rutgers or pass)
UNC (agree big; Tuberville, report to the woodshed)
Miami (agree but pass)
UM/KSU under (why under when you can fade UM?)
MTSU/Navy over (that is a shitstupid pick; no way would i play over there)
Ole Miss (duh)
Texas (i want nothing to do with this game other than to watch - Mack is gone and UO was bummed out at the prospect of a lowly Rose Bowl appearance; agree, Horns or nothing but over is consideration)
TT/ASU over (agree big)
BC (agree big)
VT (terrible call; VT TT under is one of two best TT unders in bowl season (Sooners other)
Mississippi State (maybe; lean Rice but like under or pass best)
Duke (Duke or over is the play)
Nebraska (duh)
North Texas (disagree)
Wisconsin (oh i hope this is right because i might unload on Badgers)
Iowa (love it)
Stanford (pass or under)
UCF/Baylor over (lean over but like UCF plus points better)
Bama (all day)
Okie State (wrong - Missou or over or pass)
Buckeyes (agree but over or TT over is better play i think)
Houston (agree but hate to fade James Franklin here)
Arkansas State (agree but coaching change)
No play on NCG (cmon Phil; over or Noles TT over i say)

[BiffTFinancial]

Final Bowl forecasts

BOWL	Teams		Line	Total	FINAL Forecast
	Away	Home	Current	Current	Winner	Winner	Loser
New Mexico	Colorado St	Wazzu	-4.5	66	Colorado State	37	36
Las Vegas	USC	Fresno St	6	63	USC	38	32
Famous Idaho Potato	Buffalo	SDSU	-2	50.5	Buffalo	28	24
New Orleans	UL Lafayette	Tulane	-1.5	49	Tulane	27	21
St. Petersburg	Ohio	E Carolina	-13.5	62	East Carolina	37	27
Hawaii	Oregon St	Boise	3	64	Boise	37	33
Little Caesars Pizza	Pitt	BGSU	-5	50	Bowling Green	28	21
Poinsettia	Utah St	N Illinois	-1.5	58	Utah State	30	26
Military Bowl	Marshall	Maryland	2.5	62	Marshall	34	33
Texas	Syracuse	Minnesota	-4	47.5	Minnesota	27	17
Fight Hunger	Washington	BYU	3	59.5	Washington	36	30
Pinstripe	Rutgers	Notre Dame	-14.5	52.5	Notre Dame	33	21
Belk	Cincinnati	N Carolina	-3	56.5	UNC	36	26
Russell Athletic	Miami	Louisville	-3	57	Miami	27	26
Buffalo Wild Wings	Michigan	Kansas St	-4	55.5	Kansas State	28	21
Armed Forces	MTSU	Navy	-6	55	Navy	28	-20
Music City	Ole Miss	Georgia Tech	3	56.5	Ole Miss	30	23
Alamo	Texas	Oregon	-13.5	67	Oregon	40	33
Holiday	Texas Tech	Arizona St	-14	71	Arizona State	48	27
Advocare V100	BC	Arizona	-7	57	Arizona	28	27
Sun	Virginia Tech	UCLA	-7	47	UCLA	26	16
Liberty	Mississippi St	Rice	7	50.5	Mississippi State	27	23
CFA	Duke	Texas A&M	-12	74.5	Texas A&M	44	37
Gator	Nebraska	Georgia	-8.5	60.5	Georgia	34	30
Heart of Dallas	UNLV	North Texas	-6.5	54.5	North Texas	27	24
Capital One	Wisconsin	S Carolina	1.5	51	Wisconsin	35	26
Outback	Iowa	LSU	-7	49	LSU	24	23
Rose	Michigan St	Stanford	-5	42.5	Stanford	21	17
Fiesta	UCF	Baylor	-17	68.5	Baylor	39	30
Sugar	Oklahoma	Alabama	-15.5	51.5	Bama	34	14
Orange	Clemson	Ohio St	-2.5	68	Ohio State	42	34
Cotton	Oklahoma St	Missou	-1	60.5	Missou	34	31
Compass	Houston	Vanderbilt	-2.5	53.5	Houston	28	24
GoDaddy	Arkansas St	Ball St	-8	64.5	Ball State	35	30
NCG	Auburn	Florida St	-8.5	67	Florida State	44	30

[BiffTFinancial]

Leans for this weekend
CSU +4'
CSU TT over 31
Tulane -1'
OU +14
OU TT over 24'
Boise +3
Boise TT over 30'

i like three TT overs this weekend, but i have a feeling that TT overs are going to be a fool's errand early in bowl season. overs in general were last year as i recall (at least the ones that i liked).

[BiffTFinancial]

this classic can brighten the darkest day

[pacocn]

Biffster, classic video, moral of story wipe it off on the curtains on the way in.

[SilverTongueFox]

I just had to add a few of my personal favorites. This is how we'd roll in Athens when I was there.

[SilverTongueFox]

[BiffTFinancial]

Biffster, classic video, moral of story wipe it off on the curtains on the way in.

You have curtains? Fkn elitist. With your MLB record, I suppose you can have fancy things like curtains.

[BiffTFinancial]

I just had to add a few of my personal favorites. This is how we'd roll in Athens when I was there.

Awesome! There are some great one-liners in this one.

Did you ever see Widespread Panic play in Athens? I saw them a bunch of times, but will always wish that I'd seen a Georgia Theater show.

[Simon Gruber]

Leans for this weekend
CSU +4'
CSU TT over 31
Tulane -1'
OU +14
OU TT over 24'
Boise +3
Boise TT over 30'

i like three TT overs this weekend, but i have a feeling that TT overs are going to be a fool's errand early in bowl season. overs in general were last year as i recall (at least the ones that i liked).

Tailing these two plays to start out. We'll see what happens after that. I got CSU O 30 and +5'. GL.

[SilverTongueFox]

Awesome! There are some great one-liners in this one.

Did you ever see Widespread Panic play in Athens? I saw them a bunch of times, but will always wish that I'd seen a Georgia Theater show.

Biff, April 1998, my jr year, the Quincy Carter years, WSP played a free show outside downtown Athens. It was an incredible scene. Estimated 60,000 to 100,000 people. Amazing scene that day in Athens.

[pacocn]

You have curtains? Fkn elitist. With your MLB record, I suppose you can have fancy things like curtains.

Nba and Ncaa kicking my arse this year, may have to trade em in for thrift store bed sheets

[BiffTFinancial]

Tailing these two plays to start out. We'll see what happens after that. I got CSU O 30 and +5'. GL.

BOL. Still trying to decide what i'm doing on that one, but the disparity in running games is so stark, tough not to back CSU somehow.

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff, April 1998, my jr year, the Quincy Carter years, WSP played a free show outside downtown Athens. It was an incredible scene. Estimated 60,000 to 100,000 people. Amazing scene that day in Athens.

I remember reading about that. That is killer. Love Panic. Think I'm gonna spend some time on panicstream today, i bet that show won't be too hard to find.

[BiffTFinancial]

New Mexico Bowl:
2* Colorado State team total over 30'

and away we go

[BiffTFinancial]

taking a long look at Las Vegas Bowl over 63'/USC TT over 34'

will be passing on Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Buffalo/SDSU)

leaning Tulane in New Orleans Bowl tonight

[BiffTFinancial]

DonBest.com @DonBestSports 13m
Boise State QB Joe Southwick (suspension) expected to miss Tuesday's #HawaiiBowl game vs. Oregon State. #NCAAF odds: http://www.donbest.com/ncaaf/odds/

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

Las Vegas Bowl:
2* USC/Fresno State over 64 (-105)

2013-14 Bowls updated card
New Mexico Bowl: 2* Colorado State TT over 30'
Las Vegas Bowl: 2* USC/Fresno State over 64 (-105)

[2daBank]

I like csu and over in both those gms.. Gl throughout the bowl season brother..

[CappinTerp]

Good luck this bowl season bud. I have started capping them and one game that sticks out to me is the Ohio St/ Clem game,with the line @ -2.5 it looks low to me...now see a lot of -3 and think that Clemson is the side....but still more work to do.........BOL

[SilverTongueFox]

New Mexico Bowl:
2* Colorado State team total over 30'

and away we go

What a finish? Congrats bro! It's about gd time it swings our way.

[BiffTFinancial]

What a finish? Congrats bro! It's about gd time it swings our way.

No kidding. What a fun game. Score makes it look like an easy winner, but could've easily gone the other way. Bout time is right.

2* CSU TT over 30' - WINNER

Need one more score in Vegas

[BiffTFinancial]

I like csu and over in both those gms.. Gl throughout the bowl season brother..

Thanks, pal. Bowl season one of my two favorite times of the year (along with early March). Love that week of capping 35 games methodically. I'm a mighty dork.

[BiffTFinancial]

Good luck this bowl season bud. I have started capping them and one game that sticks out to me is the Ohio St/ Clem game,with the line @ -2.5 it looks low to me...now see a lot of -3 and think that Clemson is the side....but still more work to do.........BOL

Hey, CT, good to see you. My humble opinion is that, if you like a side in Orange Bowl, play the respective TT over. I'm leaning hard to Bucks TT over/game over, but playing Clemson is not even a consideration for a homer like me. BOL whatever you decide, pal.