Wanna Bet's Play of the Week Volume IV: Wanderlei Silva vs Rich Franklin

[DeFactoCrippler]

I hereby resign from making any more videos following Wanderlei Silva's loss. Congratulations to DFC on getting his wish: no more Wanna Bet videos.

I do them for sheer entertainment as I'm passionate about MMA and find it a perfect avenue to express it. However, it's not been entertaining when it's more about the hate than about the love of the sport.

I am hereby retiring the video series with my backers ending up at even.

Wait, I guess I was being hard on you by saying what the fock does watching tape do for you if you have no clue how to analyse it. How could I say that to a boy who is such a big MMA fanatic. You were totally right about his "chin", btw.

I just went back and watched the tape on Wands chin from tonights fight. And if you look close in that 3rd round. I mean REALLY close, you can make out a pair of nuts just resting on Wands chin. Then it blew my mind...THEY WERE THERE THE WHOLE FIGHT

[AraiWa]

Silva is looking worn and might want to start thinking of hanging em up. I saw him fight in Japan when he was at his peak and he was an absolute beast. Now every time he steps in the ring it seems like he's always on the verge of being Ko'd. I bet on him, small, in a parlay so no big deal. Should have known better-Franklin's the smarter fighter and has better technique. Most of the time this type of fighter wins.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

[gabe]

Silva is looking worn and might want to start thinking of hanging em up. I saw him fight in Japan when he was at his peak and he was an absolute beast. Now every time he steps in the ring it seems like he's always on the verge of being Ko'd. I bet on him, small, in a parlay so no big deal. Should have known better-Franklin's the smarter fighter and has better technique. Most of the time this type of fighter wins.

Like I said, Franklin wouldn't have accepted a match he wasn't confident he could win easily. Knowing that he is confident he could easily beat Silva is the main reason I was confident in playing him. I just hoped he would get a KO.

[gabe]

Can you also shut down your phaget ass twitter?

Can you stop pretending you know anything about fighting?

lol wtf? why are you stalking the guy? the fact that you've actually been on his twitter page speaks volumes... just wow, dude. you're creepy.

[gabe]

Live betting lines are always terrible. I bet Carlos Condit over Nick Diaz at +500 after round 2, LOL! They were 1-1 in rounds at that point - +500 was f*cking INSANE!!

I thought Diaz took the first 2 rounds, as did most people watching.

[DeFactoCrippler]

lol wtf? why are you stalking the guy? the fact that you've actually been on his twitter page speaks volumes... just wow, dude. you're creepy.

Wait, I have been on Luca Fury's twitter too...does that speak VOLUMES? What about Vaughany, ive been on his too. I think he should just disappear because he got STALKERS.

The kid has been trying to get people to goto his twitter since the first video, lol.

But Gabe man. I'm glad you're back sharing your retarded brand of MMA advice just one week after burying yourself and claiming to quit betting! Does that "speak volumes"

1000 freeplay from your bookie? Go away. You are a bigger liar than this kid. You know even less, lol.

[Oblivian]

I hereby resign from making any more videos following Wanderlei Silva's loss. Congratulations to DFC on getting his wish: no more Wanna Bet videos.

I do them for sheer entertainment as I'm passionate about MMA and find it a perfect avenue to express it. However, it's not been entertaining when it's more about the hate than about the love of the sport.

I am hereby retiring the video series with my backers ending up at even.

Want me to step in for you? Here I am giving my picks to the old lady down the street.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

lol wtf? why are you stalking the guy? the fact that you've actually been on his twitter page speaks volumes... just wow, dude. you're creepy.

Geez, this guy who hates on me at every opportunity admits to checking me out on twitter too? And he wants me to stop posting on twitter as if it matters one iota in his life as opposed to SBR where at least he has to see it & actively avoid it? Only a self-loathing bicurious loser with a secret Wanna Bet crush does that...

I think DeFactoCreeper is actually an insane person foaming at the mouth with pictures of me everywhere in his place and he considers himself my #1 fan like the guy holding Catcher In The Rye while "greeting" John Lennon. Good thing I hide my identity after all... This hater is pure Holden Caulfield: everyone's a phony on here. It all makes sense now.

For someone who supposedly loathes me so much & denies me of having any MMA insight to offer, I find this behaviour odd & disturbing. If anyone knows this creep's twitter handle, please PM me. Thanks in advance.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Want me to step in for you? Here I am giving my picks to the old lady down the street.

LOL. I dunno how your wife & kid would feel about you dancing around in that thing but if you're even remotely serious about going party-guy again, since you're a welcome member of my online gambling family and I'd be happy to give shout outs to your videos. I'd love to see your video picks... you're one of the most knowledgable guys I've encountered in my years chatting about MMA.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Geez, this guy who hates on me at every opportunity admits to checking me out on twitter too? And he wants me to stop posting on twitter as if it matters one iota in his life as opposed to SBR where at least he has to see it & actively avoid it? Only a self-loathing bicurious loser with a secret Wanna Bet crush does that...

I think DeFactoCreeper is actually an insane person foaming at the mouth with pictures of me everywhere in his place and he considers himself my #1 fan like the guy holding Catcher In The Rye while "greeting" John Lennon. Good thing I hide my identity after all... This hater is pure Holden Caulfield: everyone's a phony on here. It all makes sense now.

For someone who supposedly loathes me so much & denies me of having any MMA insight to offer, I find this behaviour odd & disturbing. If anyone knows this creep's twitter handle, please PM me. Thanks in advance.

Lol, coming from the guy who followed Luca Fury across numerous social platforms and then made a video superimposing Luca Fury's face over his own.

Ok.

[Thor4140]

Lol, coming from the guy who followed Luca Fury across numerous social platforms and then made a video superimposing Luca Fury's face over his own.

Ok.

This is the same guy who got all upset when i told him Franklin would destroy that stiff Cung Lee. Cung Lee lost to a washed up Wandy and the only reason Wandy had the chance to win this fight in the second round is because Ace got to cocky cause nothing Wandy was doing was hurting him. The rest of the four rounds went just like i thought it would. Total domination by Rich. I didn't bet it cause it was in Brazil and was afraid of the judging in case it went fivve which im kinda surprised it did. If Sonnen loses to A. Silva i would set a match with Wandy next. Wandy could look good in that loss cause Sonnen doesn't have the greatest hands in the world. By the way Defact who is the Brazilian boxing coach? He needs to be executed. Some of these fights were the worst hands i ever saw. The final with the kid with the red hair was comical the way he was swinging. The 185 final one guy couldn't swing at all and the winner will get crushed by anyone who can swing back in the ufc. He is so easy to hit that a guy with no boxing in his arsenal was hitting him.

[DeFactoCrippler]

This is the same guy who got all upset when i told him Franklin would destroy that stiff Cung Lee.

Fock man it's hard dealing with these guys sometimes. Goes like this

Them: "I'm a winning MMA capper look at my twitter for proof"

Me: "Ok"

Them: "You looked at my Twitter! Why would you EVER do that! UNCLE CREEPY!"

By the way Defact who is the Brazilian boxing coach? He needs to be executed. Some of these fights were the worst hands i ever saw. The final with the kid with the red hair was comical the way he was swinging. The 185 final one guy couldn't swing at all and the winner will get crushed by anyone who can swing back in the ufc. He is so easy to hit that a guy with no boxing in his arsenal was hitting him.

I didn't really know these Brazilian fighters let alone the coaches. But yeah, agree with you 100%, they all fight like that it seems. They glorify Wandy, but the guy is just a brawler with power who would stay in the pocket and swing. But once his chin went he could do too much of that anymore and look what happened. Guy had no skill.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Luca and I always respected each other's knowledge. We're just two strong-willed people and when we butted heads one too many times it turned ugly. We've reconciled. We're grown men. Luca was actually the first person to tweet his condolences about Wanderlei and the reality of the fight being stopped in the second round by many refs in that spot.

You, on the other hand, don't show any respect for me or a lot of other people on SBR for that matter. You have no business following/stalking me on twitter, yet you do. How pathetic or psychotic of you... Get your shit together. You're a screwed up person.

[Vaughany]

Lol, coming from the guy who followed Luca Fury across numerous social platforms and then made a video superimposing Luca Fury's face over his own.

Ok.

ha doh

[Vaughany]

nice job buddy.

did anyone else see the line for whether silva and franklin will hug it out before round 5? i got it for +2500. obviously this was a risky wager since the bookie has sole discretion as to whether they "hugged it out" or if it was a regular hug. paid off in the end, but it was close because rich almost pulled away after a regular hug, but luckily wandy pulled him back in and they hugged it out.

[DeFactoCrippler]

You, on the other hand, don't show any respect for me or a lot of other people on SBR for that matter. You have no business following/stalking me on twitter, yet you do. How pathetic or psychotic of you... Get your shit together. You're a screwed up person.

Right, so looking at your twitter to see your picks is "pathetic and psychotic".

You on the other hand followed someone across sherdog, sbr, and twitter initiating a beef which culminated in you making an impersonation video of said person. Only to later apologize claiming to have been going through the "worst month of your life".

What is pathetic and psychotic?

[Wanna Bet On It?]

This is the same guy who got all upset when i told him Franklin would destroy that stiff Cung Lee. Cung Lee lost to a washed up Wandy and the only reason Wandy had the chance to win this fight in the second round is because Ace got to cocky cause nothing Wandy was doing was hurting him. The rest of the four rounds went just like i thought it would. Total domination by Rich. I didn't bet it cause it was in Brazil and was afraid of the judging in case it went fivve which im kinda surprised it did. If Sonnen loses to A. Silva i would set a match with Wandy next. Wandy could look good in that loss cause Sonnen doesn't have the greatest hands in the world. By the way Defact who is the Brazilian boxing coach? He needs to be executed. Some of these fights were the worst hands i ever saw. The final with the kid with the red hair was comical the way he was swinging. The 185 final one guy couldn't swing at all and the winner will get crushed by anyone who can swing back in the ufc. He is so easy to hit that a guy with no boxing in his arsenal was hitting him.

I did? If you're referring to me, please clarify. At least point me to which thread I would've said that in because I've never had much of an opinion on the Rich/Le fight. But "Franklin would destroy that stiff Cung Le"? I wouldn't be surprised if I disagreed with your eloquent, level-headed capping of that fight.

But "Got all upset"? Please show me because that didn't happen...

[illmatick]

Wannabet is actually a lot sharper than 90% of this board.His last few video have just been absolute shit though.

We at sbr appreciate his ability to generate 13 page threads.

Brother Gabriel is correct. 1,2 should have gone to diaz.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Wannabet is actually a lot sharper than 90% of this board.His last few video have just been absolute shit though.

We at sbr appreciate his ability to generate 13 page threads.

Brother Gabriel is correct. 1,2 should have gone to diaz.

Thanks? Kinda?

Last few videos have been absolute shit?
KZ @ +281
Brookins @ + 170
Wanderlei @ +150

KZ was pretty brilliant, particularly in my synopsis that played out and not just picking a deep dog and lucking out.
Brookins was shit. Fine.
My Wanderlei play I'd make again.

What was my argument? Rich can't KO Wanderlei. Conventional wisdom was that Rich could (implied probability greater than 50% with an ITD prop at -130). I said the chances were 1/5 to 1/4 at best. I was right: 8 rounds without getting KOed by Rich --- Chuck went 1. There were no props available when I shot the video to fade Rich by finish. So then I asked what the likelihood of a Rich by decision outcome was. Well, all 3 rounds were close until the final minute at UFC 99. Wanderlei has been a master of swarming and winning rounds or TKOing guys at the ends of rounds (Bisping 1/2/3, Cung 1/2) so I felt he could conserve himself and swarm for the finish or steal the round. He did exactly that in round two: except he swarmed and pounded out Rich so hard while Yamasaki let Rich survive the beatdown that Wanderlei punched himself out and really didn't have anything left in the tank until trying to go out in a blaze of glory in the final minute. Those are tough circumstances but they can't be underscored enough.

I lost. I can accept that. I apologize to anyone who bet Wanderlei based on my synopsis but I stand behind my breakdown and we're all grown men and have to accept responsibilities for our own decisions. There's very little in that 22 minutes of video that someone can go back and criticize as being egregiously wrong. You know that, bro.

These videos were shot weeks ahead of the event and I can't even offer manoveurs to maximize returns while minimizing risk until the day of the event, so I post them to twitter once available. My play was 10U on Wanderlei @ +150 couple to 5U on Wanderlei +9.5 @ +120. I posted it on twitter yesterday before the event if you noticed. Same return as my original 14U straight play on Wand (20.5U), dramatically less risk if it went to the cards and Rich won less than all 5 rounds. Turned out to be a wise play, avoiding a large 14U loss to just a 4U loss.

The videos back me into a corner of having to just bet a straight play weeks out (which is generally not my preferred style for those who follow my picks; I love props) or waiting till the day of the event to release a video which is a hectic time for a lot of bettors and has a smaller audience. I can either dilute them by giving a series of picks in upcoming videos as I'm a volume +EV bettor to minimize the variance of looking bad from making just a few moderate to deep dog plays or stick to a single, in-depth play (which I get fired up for) and release a brief, follow up video when props are out. It starts to be a bit much though so watching the video and keeping posted on my final play on twitter when props are out seems reasonable to me. I'm open to feedback though.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Thanks? Kinda?

Last few videos have been absolute shit?
KZ @ +281
Brookins @ + 170
Wanderlei @ +150

Lol what about Jim Miller, that was the worst of all.

It starts to be a bit much though so watching the video and keeping posted on my final play on twitter when props are out seems reasonable to me. I'm open to feedback though.

So you are touting your little phaget ass twitter that people have "no business looking at" despite your numerous PLEAS for people to do just that?

This is "pathetic".

Your videos are "pathetic"

Your are a losing tout who is 1-4 in your tout videos after having lost what you admitted was the biggest play of your life. But you are a real "expert", you will obviously bounce back.

[Kaladarus]

Wanderlei was very close to finishing in the second. If he had a little more time it might have been over or if he didn't go crazy that round he could have done better in the other 3 rounds. Either way, Franklin was very close to getting murdered by axes.

[Thor4140]

Wanderlei was very close to finishing in the second. If he had a little more time it might have been over or if he didn't go crazy that round he could have done better in the other 3 rounds. Either way, Franklin was very close to getting murdered by axes.

yes he was almost got finished but i believe this happen cause Rich got to cocky cause he was completely dominating Wandy. Nothing Wandy was doing was working and it actually looked like Ace had absolutely no respect for Wandy and his power. U get hit on that certain spot on the chin most go down. Rich should know better then this.

[bjpenn85]

Same thing with Cezar. These small gloves make mma so much more unpredictable, even when you have an edge like both franklin and cezar had. How is boxing compared to mma betting. Is there as much upsets with flask KOes from fighters that are undeniable weaker boxers?

[gabe]

Wait, I have been on Luca Fury's twitter too...does that speak VOLUMES? What about Vaughany, ive been on his too. I think he should just disappear because he got STALKERS.

The kid has been trying to get people to goto his twitter since the first video, lol.

But Gabe man. I'm glad you're back sharing your retarded brand of MMA advice just one week after burying yourself and claiming to quit betting! Does that "speak volumes"

1000 freeplay from your bookie? Go away. You are a bigger liar than this kid. You know even less, lol.

I actually had only $450 worth of free play. He wasn't able to get me the full g. I turned $450 into THOUSANDS in two days. You should email me your prayers before bed every night, for I am a God to a web-chump like you.

[gabe]

Btw- when u visit
Someone's twitter page who u are in constant arguments with and that person never personally linked you, then yes you are an obsessed creep. Get a fkn life.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Btw- when u visit
Someone's twitter page who u are in constant arguments with and that person never personally linked you, then yes you are an obsessed creep. Get a fkn life.

Lol, I bet you think I'm obsessed with you after I watched 30 seconds of your stupid comedy routine then clicked the red x? After you posted it about 10 focking times, lol.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Same thing with Cezar. These small gloves make mma so much more unpredictable, even when you have an edge like both franklin and cezar had. How is boxing compared to mma betting. Is there as much upsets with flask KOes from fighters that are undeniable weaker boxers?

Thing with boxing is when flash ko's occur the fighter atleast has an opportunity to recover with the 10 count. An MMA fight can turn tables in an instant.

An example would be Pacman/Mosely Pacman legit dropped him, but Mosely took the time and was able to recover and finish the fight atleast where in MMA Pac would have just swarmed while Mosely was stunned and i would be over.

[bjpenn85]

Based on what you know just said. Is it easier to cap boxing? If no, what other big ups tackles do a boxing capper face?

[PunisherIND]

Wanderlei was very close to finishing in the second. If he had a little more time it might have been over or if he didn't go crazy that round he could have done better in the other 3 rounds. Either way, Franklin was very close to getting murdered by axes.

no one is disputing that wandy controlled about 30 seconds of the fight where he came within a second or two of getting the finish. but do you think that would justify -200? thats where wannabet capped this fight. he said -200 for wandy.

did wandy have a punchers chance? absolutely. i think he had more than a punchers chance. but nowhere close to -200.

sorry, i dont mean to kick you while you're down kid, but lets not pretend like you were spot on in your breakdown when you said -200 for wandy.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Based on what you know just said. Is it easier to cap boxing? If no, what other big ups tackles do a boxing capper face?

The fact that you actually have to take corruption into account when making your bets. They don't even try to hide it anymore. Some places are worse than others. Fights that occur in Texas and Germany are notoriously corrupt.

So you think you have nice odds on an underdog based skills but the only chance you really have to win is by KO because the judges are favoring one fighter.

[bjpenn85]

wow. Thats interesting. I didnt know that. Do you bet a lot on boxing?

[DeFactoCrippler]

wow. Thats interesting. I didnt know that. Do you bet a lot on boxing?

Yeah, quite a bit. But I think it's easier to find value in MMA. In boxing promoters try and set up easy fights for their guys so you see a lot more really high lines in Boxing, like -1000 and way above is not uncommon at all, but in MMA it's almost unheard of.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

no one is disputing that wandy controlled about 30 seconds of the fight where he came within a second or two of getting the finish. but do you think that would justify -200? thats where wannabet capped this fight. he said -200 for wandy.

did wandy have a punchers chance? absolutely. i think he had more than a punchers chance. but nowhere close to -200.

sorry, i dont mean to kick you while you're down kid, but lets not pretend like you were spot on in your breakdown when you said -200 for wandy.

Listen to what you just said. Wanderlei was within one to two seconds of getting the finish... that's with Yamasaki who was screaming fight back! fight back! at the end of the round which Rich wasn't and was unquestionably saved by the bell. Most other referees could've stopped that.

Rounds one & two were close with Rich walking down Wanderlei while landing volume strikes while Wanderlei countered with the more powerful strikes including multiple headkicks and overhand rights. Then Wand blew his wad when he caught Rich multiple times. Wand wasn't the same fighter afterwards.

If you're so blind so as to not acknowledge the fortune of Rich Franklin surviving Wanderlei's onslaught thanks to an egregiously late stoppage (Jesus Christ, compare the ridiculous stoppage of Nijem or even the questionable ground strike or two by Swanson just this weekend), & was saved by the bell not by his own survival mid-round while fortunately taking Wand out of the fight then I have nothing more to say to you.

That was a perfect scenario for Rich backers. Barely survive and fight a depleted Wanderlei for 3 more rounds to win on points.

And to those who question the legitimacy of letting the fight go on, Rich was not defending himself with about 3 seconds left... He admitted afterwards he couldn't remember between that beatdown and being told it was round five. The rules are in place to minimize concussions, justified by intelligently defending oneself. Initially Rich was but by the final few seconds he was not and the fight should've been stopped. Yamasaki played it to the bell not to the fighter's health. It may have worked out for Rich, much like it worked out for Edgar, but that is not what the rules state to protect Rich's own health down the road.

But yes, Rich wins this more than 66% of the time by knocking out Wanderlei. Or was it by surviving by the skin of his teeth, the ref AND the bell, only to lackadaisically pick apart a spent Wanderlei. Yup, that's the likeliest scenario to model.

[gabe]

Listen to what you just said. Wanderlei was within one to two seconds of getting the finish... that's with Yamasaki who was screaming fight back! fight back! at the end of the round which Rich wasn't and was unquestionably saved by the bell. Most other referees could've stopped that.

Rounds one & two were close with Rich walking down Wanderlei while landing volume strikes while Wanderlei countered with the more powerful strikes including multiple headkicks and overhand rights. Then Wand blew his wad when he caught Rich multiple times. Wand wasn't the same fighter afterwards.

If you're so blind so as to not acknowledge the fortune of Rich Franklin surviving Wanderlei's onslaught thanks to an egregiously late stoppage (Jesus Christ, compare the ridiculous stoppage of Nijem or even the questionable ground strike or two by Swanson just this weekend), & was saved by the bell not by his own survival mid-round while fortunately taking Wand out of the fight then I have nothing more to say to you.

That was a perfect scenario for Rich backers. Barely survive and fight a depleted Wanderlei for 3 more rounds to win on points.

And to those who question the legitimacy of letting the fight go on, Rich was not defending himself with about 3 seconds left... He admitted afterwards he couldn't remember between that beatdown and being told it was round five. The rules are in place to minimize concussions, justified by intelligently defending oneself. Initially Rich was but by the final few seconds he was not and the fight should've been stopped. Yamasaki played it to the bell not to the fighter's health. It may have worked out for Rich, much like it worked out for Edgar, but that is not what the rules state to protect Rich's own health down the road.

But yes, Rich wins this more than 66% of the time by knocking out Wanderlei. Or was it by surviving by the skin of his teeth, the ref AND the bell, only to lackadaisically pick apart a spent Wanderlei. Yup, that's the likeliest scenario to model.

Rich's memory went before he took the beating, not during it... also, he was fighting back and let Yamasaki know he was. You can't just say he wasn't fighting back when it's completely untrue. Sure, he covered up the final 3 seconds, but that's because he knows the round is almost over. He wasn't all there mentally, but his instincts were in full force.