UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz

[NunyaBidness]

what time does the FaceBook part start? looks like the main card starts 4:00pm EST. So i'm guessing around 12-1:00

announced at 12:30 EST, so probably 1.

[Mr.Kitty]

[GunShard]

Young defeating Omigawa at 3 to 1 odds looks like a good bet as Vaughany suggested.
Young has the reach, height and win/loss ratio advantages.

[flickavic]

I have to work until 4 or 5 Saturday. I think the facebook fights are on early.Does anyone know a website I can watch the facebook fights from the start once i get home? Thanks guys..

[FlashinLeather]

I have to work until 4 or 5 Saturday. I think the facebook fights are on early.Does anyone know a website I can watch the facebook fights from the start once i get home? Thanks guys..

I would also be interested in this if anyone knows...

[Vitooch]

I'm really impressed by Barao's takedowns and top control.

Pickett is a tough guy but Barao's strength and grappling may be too overwhelming.

[Vaughany]

I'm really impressed by Barao's takedowns and top control.

Pickett is a tough guy but Barao's strength and grappling may be too overwhelming.

Pickett has very good offensive wrestling, however his defense isn't that great - partly because he is confident in his ground game and confident that he can pop right back up if he wants to so doesnt put up much resistance.

[Vitooch]

Pickett has very good offensive wrestling, however his defense isn't that great - partly because he is confident in his ground game and confident that he can pop right back up if he wants to so doesnt put up much resistance.

I thought his TDD against Jorgensen, an all-american was pretty damn good considering how talented a wrestler Jorgensen is.

[NunyaBidness]

So 5d has decided to not open props for this card or what? It's 24 hours away.

[Educ8d Degener8]

So 5d has decided to not open props for this card or what? It's 24 hours away.

I wouldn't doubt it if the time difference is throwing them off... they probably think its a Saturday card in Vegas

Give em a ring perhaps to get em moving.

[TheCalculator]

So 5d has decided to not open props for this card or what? It's 24 hours away.

I've been waiting also. Probably too small in their opinion. PaddyPower has a few open. Props should be back full-tilt next weekend.

[NunyaBidness]

I've been waiting also. Probably too small in their opinion. PaddyPower has a few open. Props should be back full-tilt next weekend.

They usually have them for small cards though. And bodog even opens props for bellator, so I would expect them to do it, and nothing there either.

[Mr.Kitty]

Weigh-in results

MAIN CARD (Spike TV)

• Chris Leben (186) vs. Mark Munoz (186)
• Renan Barao (136) vs. Brad Pickett (134)
• Papy Abedi (170) vs. Thiago Alves (172)*
• Cyrille Diabate (206) vs. Anthony Perosh (205)
• Terry Etim (156) vs. Edward Faaloloto (155)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)

• Justin Edwards (170) vs. John Maguire (170)
• Rob Broughton (258) vs. Philip De Fries (243)
• Michihiro Omigawa (145) vs. Jason Young (145)
• Chris Cope (170) vs. Che Mills (169)
• Chris Cariaso (135) vs. Vaughan Lee (135)

*Thiago Alves came in 1 pound over

[Vitooch]

I've been waiting also. Probably too small in their opinion. PaddyPower has a few open. Props should be back full-tilt next weekend.

They'll be up soon

[Mr.Kitty]

[Educ8d Degener8]

Leben looks rather... erm... fit...

[rocky mattioli]

what is faaloloto doing in the ufc?.......his record is extremely weak......

anybody think he`s live vs etim?...doesn`t seem so.....i`m looking for something to drag parlay odds for a boxing match down a little...

[FightFightFight]

Hes not a lock imo, Faaloloto has paths to victory, although they look bleak. Wouldnt take either man here.

[TheCalculator]

Hes not a lock imo, Faaloloto has paths to victory, although they look bleak. Wouldnt take either man here.

I agree -- no way Etim is worth -600+. That's insane. If Anderson Silva was facing Faaloloto. The value at this point is on Faaloloto getting a KO.

[Educ8d Degener8]

I'm kinda hating this card...
Pending more review (if time permits), medium lean Alves.
Small leans Diabate, Mills, Pickett.

Wouldn't touch Etim's line with a ten foot pole. -700! That's some Alistair Overeem versus a can in Dream type line... Etim coming off a long layoff... no thanks. F*ck, might throw a couple pennies on a Team Leben Underdog parlay with Leben and Faaloto... pays 20:1

[rocky mattioli]

remember...i`m just looking for the most likely scenario to get an odds break on a boxing play(i wouldn`t lay 6-1 on kim kardashian getting married again).........i`m not laying -600...but it`s enough to drag the odds down from 2.5-1 to well under 2-1.....

looking at it from here,i think that this should be etim`s fight to win....length...more well rounded and experienced...homecourt advantage....this guy`s 2-2...he lost both fights in the ufc and wec...and his wins were vs winless,inexperienced fighters...

but,that`s why i`m asking for opinions...

i`m not laying -600 flat...

[dww123]

I'm kinda hating this card...
Pending more review (if time permits), medium lean Alves.
Small leans Diabate, Mills, Pickett.

Wouldn't touch Etim's line with a ten foot pole. -700! That's some Alistair Overeem versus a can in Dream type line... Etim coming off a long layoff... no thanks. F*ck, might throw a couple pennies on a Team Leben Underdog parlay with Leben and Faaloto... pays 20:1

I agree. From a betting, relevance and entertainment stand point this card is just dreary,. Kind of like the country hosting it.

[rocky mattioli]

I agree. From a betting, relevance and entertainment stand point this card is just dreary,. Kind of like the country hosting it.

that`s gonna leave a mark.....

[FightFightFight]

remember...i`m just looking for the most likely scenario to get an odds break on a boxing play(i wouldn`t lay 6-1 on kim kardashian getting married again).........i`m not laying -600...but it`s enough to drag the odds down from 2.5-1 to well under 2-1.....

looking at it from here,i think that this should be etim`s fight to win....length...more well rounded and experienced...homecourt advantage....this guy`s 2-2...he lost both fights in the ufc and wec...and his wins were vs winless,inexperienced fighters...

but,that`s why i`m asking for opinions...

i`m not laying -600 flat...

Its a big betting mistake to think of parlay bets or straight bets with different standards. Common one too. If its good its good. If its bad its bad.

[rocky mattioli]

Its a big betting mistake to think of parlay bets or straight bets with different standards. Common one too. If its good its good. If its bad its bad.

imo,that`s skewed logic..that`s what parlays are all about...edging the odds...making them more managable.....

tell me then(in short form),who you think should be the strongest favorite on the board(for ufc 138)...

please.....respectfully.....i`m not looking for a manifesto...just who you like..

thanks for keeping it pithy..

[TheCalculator]

its a big betting mistake to think of parlay bets or straight bets with different standards. Common one too. If its good its good. If its bad its bad.

this.

[rocky mattioli]

this.

bullshit....

[TheCalculator]

When time permits -- I will be discussing the real value of parlays. Statistically & mathematically -- there is zero value. Practically -- in certain situations: a lot of value.

Here's a couple of great articles that dissect the mathematical realities from Van1ty:

http://rationalmma.blogspot.com/2011/01/betting-on-mma-part-2-parlays.html

http://rationalmma.blogspot.com/2011/01/betting-on-mma-part-3-more-on-parlays.html

http://rationalmma.blogspot.com/2011/01/betting-on-mma-part-4-more-on-parlays.html

I'll dissect the practical realities soon.

[rocky mattioli]

When time permits -- I will be discussing the real value of parlays. Statistically & mathematically -- there is zero value. Practically -- in certain situations: a lot of value.

Here's a couple of great articles that dissect the mathematical realities from Van1ty:

http://rationalmma.blogspot.com/2011/01/betting-on-mma-part-2-parlays.html

http://rationalmma.blogspot.com/2011/01/betting-on-mma-part-3-more-on-parlays.html

http://rationalmma.blogspot.com/2011/01/betting-on-mma-part-4-more-on-parlays.html

I'll dissect the practical realities soon.

don`t bother...i`m sure everybody is already impressed with your smug attempts to portray yourself as some sort of gambling guru.....

now...if you wouldn`t mind, a simple question...who do you think deserves to be the strongest favorite on this card?...

can you answer that?......you can either calculate it or just give an opinion....either/ or....

/thank you very much..

signed:

an insignificant plebian(plebe)...

[TheCalculator]

I really don't think there's any "locks" (which is what you're looking for) on this card.

My biggest plays are:
Munoz,
Mills
Maguire
De Fries

As far as heavy favorites -- I'll be very surprised if Diabate loses. And his value is much better than Etim.

[rocky mattioli]

I really don't think there's any "locks" (which is what you're looking for) on this card.

My biggest plays are:
Munoz,
Mills
Maguire
De Fries

As far as heavy favorites -- I'll be very surprised if Diabate loses. And his value is much better than Etim.

thank you very much.....

[TheCalculator]

I forgot to add Pickett is one of my other main picks.

[FightFightFight]

Etim then.

[NunyaBidness]

this.

Yep.

Except even moreso, because lots of books shade their parlay lines.

[rocky mattioli]

I forgot to add Pickett is one of my other main picks.

noted...and i`m probably discarding etim as a parlay padder...even though i expect him to win....

i`m a bit interested in che mills....and lean munoz(if it just happens to stay standing,i believe leben has the edge...but,i don`t necessarily think that it means a guaranteed leben win)....hoping for a smart fight from munoz....

the boxing play is my linchpin tomorrow night...but as of this writing,the props i`m pining for are m.i.a....

g.l. to you ...