UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz

[Vaughany]

Insane odds -- the odd makers have gone the other direction (leaning way too heavy on favorites). Diabate -500? Etim -600? Omigawa -450?

Total craziness. Zero value there. Nothing but waiting for the lines to move.

Even Mills at -210?

Surprised to see Mills at -210, expected close to evens at worse.

[NunyaBidness]

I actually think Pickett takes this fight closer to 55% of he time. Love getting him as a dog here.

Yep, Pickett is a beast. I think his WEC fights are somehow forgotton. His performance against Mighty Mouse was terrific, and the Jorgensen fight was a lot closer than the scores made it look. Pickett's fought the tougher competition, and he's on home turf, +160 was silly good.

[bjpenn85]

i cant open a bodog or sportsbook.com account either. Its because i am not American. Is there a way around?

[proposition joe]

Diabate is a rightful -500 and Etim should be heavily favored. I was leaning towards Omigawa but was expecting -200 or so. Ugh.
I'll be making a very small play on Abedi, betting to win 100 on Barao, and betting 100 on Vaughan Lee.

[NunyaBidness]

i cant open a bodog or sportsbook.com account either. Its because i am not American. Is there a way around?

Are you canadian? Bodog used to be closed to canadians, I don't know if that's true anymore or not.

[NunyaBidness]

Diabate is a rightful -500

Lucky for you the line is improving then.

[Vulcan300]

diabate,etim, munoz parlay? probably what i'll end up throwing money on.

[proposition joe]

Lucky for you the line is improving then.

I'll only play at -350 or better.

[poopoo333]

Why are you guys so confident in an old striker that gasses against a grappler? +300 on the grappler in a grappler vs striker match up is nice, Perosh for me

[bjpenn85]

Norwegian. They hate Norwegians. ESPECIALLY good cappers. sorry...we dont surve your kind!

[bjpenn85]

serve i mean..obviously not Canadian..

[proposition joe]

Why are you guys so confident in an old striker that gasses against a grappler? +300 on the grappler in a grappler vs striker match up is nice, Perosh for me

If said grappler had a complete arsenal of grappling ability, then yeah, it would be nice. Unfortunately, he has no wrestling. We've seen many, many times what happens when grapplers with no wrestling go up against superior strikers.

[TheCalculator]

If said grappler had a complete arsenal of grappling ability, then yeah, it would be nice. Unfortunately, he has no wrestling. We've seen many, many times what happens when grapplers with no wrestling go up against superior strikers.

Very true. BJJ is worthless unless you can wrestle the guy into position for a submission.

[Vaughany]

Very true. BJJ is worthless unless you can wrestle the guy into position for a submission.

Unless you're somebody like Pablo Garza and can throw up a flying triangle!

[TheCalculator]

Unless you're somebody like Pablo Garza and can throw up a flying triangle!

Always exceptions to every rule

[The HOFF]

Diabate is a rightful -500

I don't think Diabate should ever be rightfully -500. Even against Jonathon Goulet. If Perosh survives the first round, he's got a huge chance of winning. I'd play this one Perosh straight up with Diabate wins in 1st round.

[GunShard]

Unless you're somebody like Pablo Garza and can throw up a flying triangle!

I noticed that his opponent was 5' 6" which is why he was able to do that.

[Vaughany]

[TheCalculator]

What are the books (5dimes, Greek, Pinnacle, Bookmaker) waiting for to open all the lines? Bodog and Sportsbook have already opened them and the lines have stabilized.

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

Vaughan's fight with Brad Pickett from 2007...

[gabe]

What is your opinion of the main event? Do you think Leben is worth a play? I'm having a hard time breaking this one down. I see Munoz ground and pounding , but Munoz's wrestling hasn't always been as crisp as advertised.

I'm with you there. I think Munoz dryhumping his way to a decision victory is the most likely outcome, especially since he's got a really good chin. Gonna be tough to knock out. If it goes to decision, which it will, he is winning. Even if Leben wins 2 out of 3 rounds, they will give the decision to Munoz. I'm sure of it.

With that said, I really want to bet on Leben.

[rocky mattioli]

I'm with you there. I think Munoz dryhumping his way to a decision victory is the most likely outcome, especially since he's got a really good chin. Gonna be tough to knock out. If it goes to decision, which it will, he is winning. Even if Leben wins 2 out of 3 rounds, they will give the decision to Munoz. I'm sure of it.

With that said, I really want to bet on Leben.

i thought this was a 5`er?...

[Spaceman Spiff]

It is.

[Vaughany]

Gabe clearly not aware of tht!

[NunyaBidness]

Gabe is making his PICK based on it being 3 rounds, but his BET is on the 5 round fight. If you don't understand that then there is nothing he can say to make you get it.

[GoGoGadget]

Gabe is making his PICK based on it being 3 rounds, but his BET is on the 5 round fight. If you don't understand that then there is nothing he can say to make you get it.

Regardless of the outcome of the fight he will show up with a profit so it doesn't matter.

[Vaughany]

Gabe is making his PICK based on it being 3 rounds, but his BET is on the 5 round fight. If you don't understand that then there is nothing he can say to make you get it.

[FlashinLeather]

I'm all over pickett for 138 (no homo)

[bjpenn85]

I used him/played him in a double (no homo)

[cheeese]

I got it in on Pickett too (no homo)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

what time does the FaceBook part start? looks like the main card starts 4:00pm EST. So i'm guessing around 12-1:00

[Jamesgreak]

This is so great this my first time to watch non title match but 5 rounds fight...LOL so great i love it

[NunyaBidness]

I'm all over pickett for 138 (no homo)

I'm huge on Pickett. And he's huge in me. (homo)