UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz

**Vaughany** · 10-31-11, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by proposition joe

With a questionable chin at that. Etim for KO of the Night makes more sense to me.

I'm getting the impression that many people are going to be on Young for an underdog play and I plan on taking advantage of this and hopefully getting a decent line on Omigawa. I like Young and definately see the argument, but I can't help but think that if Poirier can get takedowns then Omigawa can do that as well. I'm liking the square play here.

The only dog (as far as my expectations) that I'm liking is Paul Taylor. He's seemingly much harder to finish than Njokuani and will hopefully avoid a technical battle.

Both plays will be dependant upon the lines, of course, and relatively small.

Yeah but if Etim does get a KO he is potentially going to be competing with a few other KO's for KO of the Night. All of the main card fights have potential to have a KO finish - especially with Leben, Alves, and Njokuani and then Diabate on undercard.

**proposition joe** · 10-31-11, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Yeah but if Etim does get a KO he is potentially going to be competing with a few other KO's for KO of the Night. All of the main card fights have potential to have a KO finish - especially with Leben, Alves, and Njokuani and then Diabate on undercard.

Good point.

I don't see Njokuani getting a KO though. Paul Taylor is very hard to finish.

Diabate and Alves are legit possibilities though.

**Vaughany** · 10-31-11, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by proposition joe

Good point.

I don't see Njokuani getting a KO though. Paul Taylor is very hard to finish.

Diabate and Alves are legit possibilities though.

yeah Taylor has great endurance, wont be easy for Njokuani to finish, but I still have tht beating tht he delivered to Winner in my mind - was amazing tht Dre suvived that, Taylor is tougher than Winner but the weight-cut is very tough for him and reason why he's pulled out of fights twice.

**poopoo333** · 10-31-11, 03:42 PM

Phillip De Fries/Rob Broughton....thoughts?

**ghost kid** · 10-31-11, 03:58 PM

Despite tape-delayed main card, UFC 138 prelims stream live on Facebook

http://mmajunkie.com/news/25887/despite-tape-delayed-main-card-ufc-138-prelims-stream-live-on-facebook.mma

**TheCalculator** · 10-31-11, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by poopoo333

Phillip De Fries/Rob Broughton....thoughts?

Lean mean submission artist vs. Fat tough striker

**TheCalculator** · 10-31-11, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

hoping for a decent price on John Maguire.

I don't mean this in disrespectful way but your post (And Vaughany's reply) probably moved the line.

I'll bet $500 that the MMA bookies read this forum to get "the pulse" on where the sharps think the fighters are at. We discussed this before UFC 137. The reality is... SBR forum is a fairly sharp place for handicappers. And there's a few guys here with proven records and the bookies will factor their opinions.

If I was making lines for the books -- this is one of the 1st places I would check to adjust my line before I release it.

I'm personally going to shut up BEFORE the lines come out. I'll share a few thoughts after.

Again -- feel free to post whatever you want. This is all just a suggestion.

**TheCalculator** · 10-31-11, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by ghost kid

despite tape-delayed main card, ufc 138 prelims stream live on facebook

http://mmajunkie.com/news/25887/desp...n-facebook.mma

thanks! Great news!

**The HOFF** · 11-01-11, 01:54 AM

**Vitooch** · 11-01-11, 02:44 AM

Ugly lines..maybe Alves and Njokuani parlay.

Don't know anything about Papy Abedi though.

And I must admit, I haven't seen any Brad Pickett or Barao fights.

Guess I'll have to do some research

**Vaughany** · 11-01-11, 02:45 AM

**bogbat** · 11-01-11, 03:40 AM

opinions on the biggest chance of an upset here?

**Vaughany** · 11-01-11, 04:02 AM

Originally posted by bogbat

opinions on the biggest chance of an upset here?

Picket from main card

**Mr.Kitty** · 11-01-11, 04:31 AM

The Makambo Story (Papy Abedi)

**Mr.Kitty** · 11-01-11, 04:32 AM

Part 3 and 4

**rocky mattioli** · 11-01-11, 09:37 AM

i watched some video on papy...i wanted to like the guy(imo,alves is sketchy)....but i wasn`t blown away...

i want to use bendo and munoz in a par,but i`m afraid that munoz will have a stumblef-ck of a gameplan and try and stand with leben.......

**proposition joe** · 11-01-11, 10:40 AM

I actually really like Barao at -150 and Taylor at +240.

**bjpenn85** · 11-01-11, 10:47 AM

do you think picketts line will improve or get worse?

**Vaughany** · 11-01-11, 10:50 AM

Might go back to +150, probably wont be much movement

**proposition joe** · 11-01-11, 10:58 AM

Why do you like Pickett here Vaughany?

**Vaughany** · 11-01-11, 11:08 AM

Originally posted by proposition joe

Why do you like Pickett here Vaughany?

Im not necessarily on Picket, I'm about 50/50 on this one, so I'd play Pickett at current odds if I had to. I'll probably jus play fight to go the distance.

**proposition joe** · 11-01-11, 11:53 AM

Damnit.

Taylor/Njokuani scratched from 138. Perosh/Diabate to main card.

**Vaughany** · 11-01-11, 11:55 AM

Sucks...Im asking Dana for a refund!

**Vaughany** · 11-01-11, 12:11 PM

Wolfslair fighter Leeroy Barnes just tweeted this: "Signed, sealed and Delivered..... :-D watch this space.... " Maybe he's been added but he's at 170?

**TheCalculator** · 11-01-11, 12:26 PM

Wow -- Taylor is an injury machine.

**Vaughany** · 11-01-11, 12:35 PM

He got whiplash from a car accident to be fair! Not his usual issues with weight-cutting

**Vaughany** · 11-01-11, 01:12 PM

Think Odessa will be releasing the rest of the lines shortly

**Vaughany** · 11-01-11, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Think Odessa will be releasing the rest of the lines shortly

2 minutes after I type that the odds come out on Bodog and Sportsbook...

Jason Young +350...ridiculous...hammer that people that have a Bodog account... unfortunately I dont!

**Vaughany** · 11-01-11, 01:20 PM

Value in Broughton as well at +145, fight is more like a pick-em

**Vaughany** · 11-01-11, 01:22 PM

And Young down to +300 and Broughton +120

**bjpenn85** · 11-01-11, 01:27 PM

looks like people dont believe the renan barao hype (which sucks for me). no money on bookmaker, dont have the opportunity to bet on bodog

**TheCalculator** · 11-01-11, 01:28 PM

Insane odds -- the odd makers have gone the other direction (leaning way too heavy on favorites). Diabate -500? Etim -600? Omigawa -450?

Total craziness. Zero value there. Nothing but waiting for the lines to move.

Even Mills at -210?

**NunyaBidness** · 11-01-11, 01:28 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

2 minutes after I type that the odds come out on Bodog and Sportsbook...

Jason Young +350...ridiculous...hammer that people that have a Bodog account... unfortunately I dont!

Why don't you open one then? Love both of those lines as well. Like Perosh at +350 too.

**illmatick** · 11-01-11, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Im not necessarily on Picket, I'm about 50/50 on this one, so I'd play Pickett at current odds if I had to. I'll probably jus play fight to go the distance.

I actually think Pickett takes this fight closer to 55% of the time. Love getting him as a dog here.

Maguire and Cope are playable as well imo.

**Vaughany** · 11-01-11, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Why don't you open one then? Love both of those lines as well. Like Perosh at +350 too.

If u sign up to Bodog in UK u have to join the .co.uk one or something - doesnt bring out the lines that the main Bodog does until day or 2 after so is pointless for me