UFC 137: St Pierre vs Diaz

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 10-26-11, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

from this day and on, i will not tell anyone who i like when fights get announced. And i will encourage others to do so. No point of betting if this ridiculously shitty line circus continue.

did anyone really say they were on Vera or Jorgenson, those lines were gonna be steep either way

**Vaughany** · 10-26-11, 01:10 PM

The only possible benefit of Vera being so heavily favoured might be that the odds for Fight Starting Rnd 2 could be good value as bookmakers think Vera will TKO/KO Marshall easily after the Cane result.

**sideloaded** · 10-26-11, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

It's more that Nick Kalikas knows what he's doing, so inevitably the odds are going to more accurate when bookmaker release the lines

Is he really that sharp? Releasing horrible odds on favorites like Vara is a going to leave some value on underdogs. Opening lines being accurate isn't really that important with limits. Pinnacle once thought about opening everything at pick'em with low limits, let the market settle the line, then up the limits.

**Vaughany** · 10-26-11, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

Is he really that sharp? Releasing horrible odds on favorites like Vara is a going to leave some value on underdogs. Opening lines being accurate isn't really that important with limits. Pinnacle once thought about opening everything at pick'em with low limits, let the market settle the line, then up the limits.

Depends if u think there is value in Marshall at the current odds - Vera's gone from -465 to -528 on sportbet so not like Marshall is getting loads of action. I think that he has got it, albeit unfortunately, spot on with Vera as I think he out-matches Marshall in every aspect.

**sideloaded** · 10-26-11, 02:26 PM

Both guys are really iffy, can't see a fight like this either guy being above -250. Just saying in general over pricing favorites at opening may be good.

**TheCalculator** · 10-26-11, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Depends if u think there is value in Marshall at the current odds - Vera's gone from -465 to -528 on sportbet so not like Marshall is getting loads of action. I think that he has got it, albeit unfortunately, spot on with Vera as I think he out-matches Marshall in every aspect.

I think this fight will be much closer than the odds are indicating. That being said -- I think Vera takes this inside the decision and it's worth throwing in a few parlays.

**bjpenn85** · 10-26-11, 04:48 PM

off course, but as i said it is a trend. I dont want to help the linemakers with my opinion. probably wont matter anyway. Its a natural development of the sport. Its just frustrating to see the guys setting the line so precise.

**v1y** · 10-26-11, 05:14 PM

Yeah the show hasn't been released yet, but Loshak asked me if there was anything else on this card I liked. I said, "Vera at -400 or Jorgensen at -300 would be nice."

Kalikas responded: "I can tell you that you won't get those prices."

Trust me when I say guys, you won't be getting any gift lines coming from Kalikas.

**sideloaded** · 10-26-11, 05:39 PM

Should have told him Vera at -200 LOL

**illmatick** · 10-26-11, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by v1y

Yeah the show hasn't been released yet, but Loshak asked me if there was anything else on this card I liked. I said, "Vera at -400 or Jorgensen at -300 would be nice." Kalikas responded: "I can tell you that you won't get those prices." Trust me when I say guys, you won't be getting any gift lines coming from Kalikas.

I Just watched your interview. Looks like they linked it with my write-up.

Nice job man, I agree with about 90% of what you had to say.

**Vaughany** · 10-28-11, 02:05 PM

How can anybody dislike Dana "Fuc*in" White!...

**proposition joe** · 10-28-11, 02:14 PM

Is that Jienotsu in the video talking to Dana about Twitter?

**Vaughany** · 10-28-11, 02:30 PM

Originally posted by proposition joe

Is that Jienotsu in the video talking to Dana about Twitter?

Is indeed, supportin his homeboi Hioki

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 10-28-11, 02:50 PM

Looks like since Diaz made comments if he could do it again he'd go into boxing instead of signing with the UFC, he had become as much as a +120 underdog.

They said on sherdog that Diaz had a share of the PPV buys before he was pulled off that fight. Could have cost him in the million dollar range. That is if he would have fought GSP in the main.

**The HOFF** · 10-28-11, 06:24 PM

MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view)

Nick Diaz (170) vs. B.J. Penn (169)
Cheick Kongo (234) vs. Matt Mitrione (255)
Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (235) vs. Roy Nelson (252)
Jeff Curran (134) vs. Scott Jorgensen (135)
Hatsu Hioki (145) vs. George Roop (145)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)

Donald Cerrone (156) vs. Dennis Siver (155)
Tyson Griffin (149)* vs. Bart Palaszewski (146)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)

Eliot Marshall (204) vs. Brandon Vera (205)
Danny Downes (155) vs. Ramsey Nijem (155)
Chris Camozzi (185) vs. Francis Carmont (185)
Dustin Jacoby (185) vs. Clifford Starks (186)

**The HOFF** · 10-28-11, 06:24 PM

BJ looked fat and happy.

**stefan084** · 10-28-11, 06:25 PM

BJ at 169 I believe

**stefan084** · 10-28-11, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by The HOFF

BJ looked fat and happy.

is this good or bad?

**Vaughany** · 10-28-11, 06:26 PM

Interesting weigh-in... Griffin weighing in at 149lbs...and Palaszeswski still looked bigger. Kongo looked beastly! That Diaz/Penn head-to-head altercation may have just pushed me in to playing Fight of the Night at +350. Maybe they had a gentleman's agreement just before the weigh-ins that they'd make it more interesting or maybe the whole Cesar Gracie/BJ Penn fall out has led to some animosity

**The HOFF** · 10-28-11, 06:36 PM

Originally posted by stefan084

is this good or bad?

He looked much better against Hughes. He was a bit more muscular. But you can never tell with him. If this were 5, you'd have to go with Diaz.

**TheCalculator** · 10-28-11, 06:46 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

That Diaz/Penn head-to-head altercation may have just pushed me in to playing Fight of the Night at +350. Maybe they had a gentleman's agreement just before the weigh-ins that they'd make it more interesting or maybe the whole Cesar Gracie/BJ Penn fall out has led to some animosity

All part of selling the fight. I'm sure a little encouragement from Uncle Dana goes a long way.

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 10-28-11, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

That Diaz/Penn head-to-head altercation may have just pushed me in to playing Fight of the Night at +350. Maybe they had a gentleman's agreement just before the weigh-ins that they'd make it more interesting or maybe the whole Cesar Gracie/BJ Penn fall out has led to some animosity

**The HOFF** · 10-29-11, 12:28 AM

**The HOFF** · 10-29-11, 12:28 AM

**The HOFF** · 10-29-11, 12:29 AM

**The HOFF** · 10-29-11, 12:29 AM

**The HOFF** · 10-29-11, 12:29 AM

**The HOFF** · 10-29-11, 12:30 AM

**The HOFF** · 10-29-11, 12:30 AM

**The HOFF** · 10-29-11, 12:30 AM

**The HOFF** · 10-29-11, 12:31 AM

**The HOFF** · 10-29-11, 12:32 AM

**The HOFF** · 10-29-11, 12:32 AM

**Vitooch** · 10-29-11, 01:10 AM

Cro Cop looks yolked up!

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 10-29-11, 03:50 AM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Cro Cop looks yolked up!

and Nelson looks like the whole egg