Originally posted by bogbat
-
I'm not sure where all the love for Browne is coming from. He has faced absolutely no one. He stopped James McSweeney in his last fight. Sorry but that just doesn't count as a quality win. I haven't seen much wrestling from Browne, which is where you can beat Kongo. Kongo has a solid chin and I haven't seen him get hurt. Cain pounded on him but never actually hurt him, just dominated with wrestling and half ass punches. Kongo has huge power and Cain found that out but survived. Kongo wasn't rocked by Mir. He got knocked down, but I think that's because he was off balance and the punch knocked him over. Browne has 1 submission win so that's not likely either. Kongo was a -400 favorite over Buentello who has power and a good chin. What Browne has ever done to warrant Kongo only around the -200 range is beyond me. I think this line is incredibly soft on Kongo. I see this going like the Turk or Evensen fights. Kongo will eventually knock him down and the GnP the shit out of him. I have a large play on Kongo.Comment -
the only thing that comes to mind is people are thinking Kongo is soft now after getting beat by top 3 guys in the divison. also browne is the bigger dude at 6'7 250ish. has a 10-0 record and 8 wiin by ko. none of his wins are over anyone in the top 10 much less top 15 in HW. those are the only things i see why people would swing his way but kongo is the vet here and should finish this fight in the 2nd round.Originally posted by The HOFFComment -
Kongo's striking defense isn't very good and he tends to get caught being stationary a lot. He was knocked down by both Mir and Herring, neither of which are good strikers. Buentello is only 6'1 and had nothing to offer vs. Kongo. Browne is 6'7, very aggressive and has great power. I think Browne has a good chance to win in the first half of the fight. After that, it should be Kongo's fight. Its my smallest play, but I like Browne's chances of catching Kongo early at these odds.Originally posted by The HOFFComment -
i think Hardy wins this fight convincingly and should be a bigger favorite. he is a better striker, physically much stronger. i don't see what condit can threaten him with. condit has a great heart but i think he is very much out gunned here. not to mention hardy trying to get back from gsp fight w/ home crowd etc. i will be big on hardyComment -
alot of closer fights on this card, only two fighters laying over -200 (Hathaway, Maldonade)Originally posted by The HOFF
Comment -
i hope hardy takes itComment -
On Hardy also.Comment -
does anyone know what time this airs live in the us?Comment -
Not live in the US. Tape delay played at 8ET.Originally posted by playa420Comment -
that blows, but at least it's free.Originally posted by The HOFFComment -
Cantwell is out...torn his ligament in a BJJ session. Just gets worse for him.Comment -
The full weigh-in results include:
MAIN CARD
- Yoshihiro Akiyama (185) vs. Michael Bisping (185)
- Carlos Condit (170) vs. Dan Hardy (171)
- John Hathaway (171) vs. Mike Pyle (170)
- Travis Browne (251) vs. Cheick Kongo (228)
- Claude Patrick (171) vs. James Wilks (170)
PRELIMINARY CARD (un-aired)
- Cyrille Diabate (204) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (204)
- Rob Broughton (257) vs. Vinicius Kappke de Quieroz (239)
- Mark Holst (155) vs. Paul Sass (155)
- Spencer Fisher (155) vs. Kurt Warburton (154)
- Fabio Maldonado (204) vs. James McSweeney (205)
Comment -
Great fail from Rogan, introducing Tom Blackledge as the first fighter!Comment -
bisping and hathaway looked awfully gaunt......i hope they rehydrate....Comment -
Bisping wasn't having the best of cuts judging from his video blogs. But then on the other hand he doesnt look as gaunt as he did in the Hendo fight.Originally posted by rocky mattioliComment -
My thoughts on Browne vs Kongo...
Footage reviewed: Browne vs Mychal Cark, Browne vs McSweeney, Kongo vs Velasquez, Kongo vs Herring, Kongo vs Buentello (off memory)...
My first take after examining Browne's record is that he would have no chance in this one, as he has beat up on total scrubs for the most part. However, after viewing some footage, I'd say he does have a chance here, albeit, I won't be making a play on him... Browne is a sort of Tim Sylvia Lite minus a solid jab. He appears more fitting of a guy you'd see in a toughman brawl, more so than a UFC fighter. But, what he has going for him in this match are size, aggression, and I'll dare say a defensive ground advantage. His striking comes off a bit wild and uncontrolled; and his leg kicks are particularly sloppy. But he seems to move forward with a fair bit of tenacity and uses his size in the clinch to his advantage. In his fight with Clark, he got dropped by a punch, but recovered by neutralizing Clark in his guard, and did attempt a triangle and an armbar, so he did demonstrate a bit of knowledge from his back.
Meanwhile, we know what we're getting with Kongo. One thing I did notice is that he likes to counter strike moving backward, and he's pretty effective with it in landing his shots with precision. Given Browne's somewhat overly aggressive stalking combined with his wild striking, if Kongo sticks with that counter-striking approach, I can see him introducing his fists to Browne's face and dropping him -- with a GNP finish soon following (unless Browne catches a sub on Kongo from his back which, quite frankly may be possible on Kongo).
The other scenario I could see playing out is Browne finds success in stalking Kongo down and either drops him via striking (we've seen a few guys land on Kongo), or perhaps more likely forces a clinch and works Kongo to the mat from there; with a Browne finish thereafter.
Way to go out on a limb, huh ED? Not quite done
There's a few more potential factors to consider at play here:
1) Browne is an inherently aggressive fighter, and his getting bumped up into somewhat of a feature match may cause him to push the pace even more in order to make an impression with the bosses (Dana and Lorenzo), and because a quick decisive W over Kongo would send his stock skyrocketing. This again lends itself into Kongo's counter striking advantage. ADVANTAGE KONGO
2) Kongo recently signed a 6 fight deal, so I'm thinking they're giving him a fairly beatable opponent to keep his name value / recognition, on paper anyway. ADVANTAGE KONGO
3) Kongo couldn't make the planned bout with Roy Nelson in July due to a back injury, so if that's a lingering problem, Browne's size and clinch may pose problems for Super-Cheick. ADVANTAGE BROWNE
So again, I do think Kongo should win, and the current line (-185) seems about right imho, but honestly, I don't trust a play on Super-Cheick Kongo. Instead of paying that juice for just Kongo, I'd rather pay a bit more and go with:
Browne vs Kongo does not go distance (-265) 1.00u play
Kongo did have a string of decisions in the distant past, but has only one in his last 6 fights and that was against a controlling grappler in Cain... With Browne's pace pushing, I really can't see this one going past the 2nd round; with a round 1 ending quite possible.
BOLComment -
I'm big on Kongo, but I really like this play as well.Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8Comment -
Hoff: From memory, that prop line already moved a wee bit. Was a bit lower juice as of yesterday evening before I locked in... GLComment -
Good write up. I like this play as well. I think Kongo wins in the first (probably) or second round and have a play on each.Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8Comment -
Ps. If any of you gents have a link to where I can find footage of Claude Patrick's bouts (other than his fight with Funch), I'd be most appreciative.
There's a Ray Steinbeiss bout on youtube but the link is dead...Comment -
PLAYS FOR UFC 120
Cheick Kongo -185 (9.25u to win 5u)
Vinicius Kappke de Quieroz -145 (7.25u to win 5u)
Claude Patrick -190 (4.75u to win 2.5u)
Alexander Gustafsson -130 (3.25u to win 2.5u)
Yoshihiro Akiyama +200 (2u to win 4u)Comment -
it looks like the show will be live at 3pm tomorrow, there should be a bunch of links floating around.Comment -
Added a few plays... quick logic here:
1.00u Brown-Kongo does not go 3 round distance (-265)
0.50u Diabate (-120)
0.50u Wilks (+158)
0.50u Kongo / Hathaway / Bisping-Akiyama starts round 2 (pays out ~ 1.25:1)
0.13u Pyle by submission (+550)
0.13u Diabate quickest sub (+1400)
My sneaky prop is Diabate quickest sub (+1400). I can see most of the "sub" guys (Pyle, Sass, Patrick) on this card potentially losing, and while Diabate is no Gracie, he has demo'd some sub skills from time to time. I think his fight with Gustafsson is gonna be fireworks from the opening bell, and I can see Diabate dropping Gustafsson and then some GnP where Gustafsson may give up his back. Would definitely have played Gustafsson-Diabate does not go to decision if that had been available, as Gustafsson is a pretty vicious mauler in his own right...
BOL allComment
