I see your quite big on Weidman/Lawlor to go the distance, its at -120 on paddy now, sucks with the limits but its a chance to add some more at a better price 
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Yeah I should waited as its better on sportbet now at -150 then it was when I took it.Originally posted by Mr.KittyI see your quite big on Weidman/Lawlor to go the distance, its at -120 on paddy now, sucks with the limits but its a chance to add some more at a better priceComment -
Vaughany, what makes you like this play?Originally posted by Vaughany
Weidman by Sub or Lawlor by TKO/KO seem more likely to me.Comment -
Originally posted by VaughanyMe 2
Might be worth hedging with Story by decision tho
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I dont really! I've got a lot on Weidman straight up at -280 as I thought I'd be able to arb out with Lawlor at +350 or better but looks like Lawlor is going to stick around +275 to +300 range (although I can get him at +320 on WilliamHill so probably will arb out). My initial thoughts were that Lawlor might be able to scrape a decision if he can keep it standing for long enough periods. BUt then as you say he could also TKO Weidman - small chance of it but it's a possibility and I'd be losing a lot if I just had Weidman and fight goes distance. Gotta think about what to do with this oneOriginally posted by proposition joeComment -
Adding:
0.1 units on McDonald by Submission at +550 to win 0.55 units;
0.025 units on Soto by TKO/KO at +700 to win 0.175 units;
0.5 units on Tibau by Decision at +140 to win 0.7 units;
0.747 units on Torres by Decision at +175 to win 1.307 units;
0.384 units on Matt Brown by Decision at +350 to win 1.344 units;
0.17 units on Bowles by TKO/KO at +800 to win 1.36 units;
0.042 units on Bowles KO of the Night at +5000 to win 2.1 units;
0.025 units on Wanderlei Silva Submission of the Night at +3000 to win 0.75 units;
0.064 units on Shogun Submission of the Night at +3000 to win 1.92 units;
0.085 units on Kampmann Submission of the Night at +1800 to win 1.53 units.Comment -
I love Paddy!
Great value IMO on Bonnar-Kingsbury FOTN AT 500+.Comment -
Might get better than that elsewhere thoOriginally posted by TheCalculatorComment -
Hope you're right!Originally posted by VaughanyComment -
Williamhill have it at +600Originally posted by TheCalculatorComment -
You're a psychic... That will be one of my next accounts.Originally posted by Vaughany
Great value on Pace/Torres FOTN +1400.Comment -
Usually I'd agree, but with the fights that there are on the main card I'd be SHOCKED if one of them doesn't get it. Every fight on main card has a legit chance - Kampmann/Story could end up being similar to Sanchez/Kampmann except Story has more power than Sanchez, Kingsbu/Bonnar obviously has a high chance of being entertaining, I've yet to see Bowles or Faber in a boring fight so put them together and it suggests fireworks, Wanderlei/Cung Le if it makes it past the first round should be entertaining and the main event is between two guys with great chins who are stand-up orientated and is 5 rounds so they have a big advantage as 5 round main events usually get the nod from Dana - unless there is a brutal KO then either will get that. Undoubtedly this is potentially one of the most exciting cards per fight ever IMO.Originally posted by TheCalculatorComment -
Adding:
1.921 units on McDonald/Soto to Not go the Distance at -150 to win 1.281 units;
Parlay: 1.582 units on McDonald/Soto to Go Over 1.5 Rounds (-160), Not Kingsbu by Submission (-4230), Not Story by Submission (-1875), Not Cung Le by Submission (-4755), Not Henderson by Submission (-3700), & Jason Miller (+180) to win 6.554 units.
Plan is to have Jason Miller in 2 or 3 parlays with the possibility of hedging with Bisping by Decision.Comment -
Arbing out of my Weidman play with Lawlor at +320, so will now make 3.592 units if Lawlor wins, or 0.86 units if Weidman wins. Sticking to my rule of not playing anybody straight up at worse than -225 unless I think they have a clear advantage in all areas. Although Weidman may well go and prove that he's better everywhere I'm not comfortable with taking the risk at -280 odds.Originally posted by Vaughany
As a back-up to the Fight to Go Distance play I've added the following parlay:
Parlay: 1.898 units on McDonald/Soto Over 1.5 Rounds (-160), Weidman by Submission (+275), Not Kingsbu by Submission (-4230), & Not Cung Le by Submission (-4755) to win 10.189 units.Comment -
Kingsbu/Bonnar FOTN +650 on SportbetOriginally posted by TheCalculatorComment -
Originally posted by Vaughany
i totally agree with your fotn comments....this card is chock full of potential fotns....i also grabbed some kingsbury/bonnar fotn at +650......is bonnar ever in a boring fight(this side of getting put on his back vs coleman)?....i think theres less of a chance of this ending quickly as opposed to rua/hendo(henderson has become a home run hitter but i`m hearing whispers that he might use his grappling more here to soften up and tire rua).....don`t see kampmann/story as fotn(expect kampmann to be pinned to the fence for long portions of the fight)
and i watched some video of soto at 145...the guys he fought were noticably bigger than he was...but he has some stand-up and take down talent that was apparent even when out-sized...and he`s a lefty....is he on mcdonald`s level?...no,but he might throw a scare into mcdonald if the big stage doesn`t cause him to freeze...Comment -
Hi Vaughany -- would you mind sharing other rules that you have or guidelines? Maybe you posted them in the past. I'm sure it would be helpful to up-and-comers like myself.Originally posted by Vaughany
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i came across something at 5 dimes that i found interesting...they have a story/kampmann over 2.5 prop along with a story/kampamnn goes the distance prop....i tried parlaying them to see if i could bring the odds into a more favorable light and it actually worked...
so i`m getting kampamnn/story over 2.5(-250) and goes the distance(-185)by basically laying a full 1 unit and getting roughly 1.3(a little less) in return...it`s costing me a half round to get a good deal of value.......of course if someone gets finished in the second half of the 3rd round,i`ll be very unhappy,but it`s basically the same wager...story`s never been stopped(all 4 losses via decision)....kampmann`s been finished twice in the ufc,but via strikes against a huge nate marquardt and the powerful paul daley....his two most recent fights vs grapplers (sanchez and shields) went to decision.....i doubt that story knocks kampmann out via strikes...he can certainly beat him by holding him against the fence and grinding out a decision or grapple-f-cking him...kampmann`s never been submitted and he`s very proficient off his back...and although kampmann has a nice sub game,6 finishes vsa sub in 17 wins isn`t damian maia-esqe....
kampmann can out-strike story,but story`s been in with excellent strikers in his career and neutralized them(alves/foster and ellenberger who have a combined 53 finishes in 63 wins)......
i`ve basically lowered the risk on an outcome that i think is the most likely(i still have a small kampmann wager,probably because i have a thing for the guy and he`s gotten the shaft several times of late)....
something to think about...Comment -
UFC 139 plays so far:
Parlay: 10 units on Ben Henderson (-225), Faber (-200), & Mir (-250) to win 20.333 units;
6.117 units on Kampmann at +115 to win 7.035 units;
10.693 units on Weidman/Lawlor to Go the Distance at -170 to win 6.29 units;
2.263 units on Shogun/Hendo to Go Over 1.5 Rnds at -175 to win 1.293 units;
3.78 units on Wanderlei/Cung Le to End by KO at +170 to win 6.426 units;
0.533 units on Wanderlei Silva by TKO/KO at +250 to win 1.332 units;
1.302 units on Faber/Bowles to Go the Distance at Evens to win 1.302 units;
1.559 units on Faber/Bowles to Go the Distance at -120 to win 1.299 units;
0.747 units on Faber by Decision at +175 to win 1.307 units;
0.79 units on Faber by Decision at +162.5 to win 1.284 units;
0.17 units on Bowles by TKO/KO at +800 to win 1.36 units;
0.042 units on Bowles KO of the Night at +5000 to win 2.1 units;
2.413 units on Story/Kampmann to Go the Distance at -187.5 to win 1.287 units;
0.533 units on Kampmann by Decision at +250 to win 1.332 units;
0.234 units on Story by TKO/KO at +600 to win 1.404 units;
1.921 units on McDonald/Soto to Not go the Distance at -150 to win 1.281 units;
Parlay: 1.582 units on McDonald/Soto to Go Over 1.5 Rounds (-160), Not Kingsbu by Submission (-4230), Not Story by Submission (-1875), Not Cung Le by Submission (-4755), Not Henderson by Submission (-3700), & Jason Miller (+180) to win 6.554 units;
Parlay: 1.583 units on Brown/Baczynski Over 1.5 rounds (-170), Not Kingsbu by Submission (-4230), Not Cung Le by Submission (-4185), & Jason Miller (+180) to win 5.794 units;
Parlay: 1.898 units on McDonald/Soto Over 1.5 Rounds (-160), Weidman by Submission (+275), Not Kingsbu by Submission (-4230), & Not Cung Le by Submission (-4755) to win 10.189 units;
0.1 units on McDonald by Submission at +550 to win 0.55 units;
0.025 units on Soto by TKO/KO at +700 to win 0.175 units;
0.5 units on Tibau by Decision at +140 to win 0.7 units;
0.747 units on Torres by Decision at +175 to win 1.307 units;
0.384 units on Matt Brown by Decision at +350 to win 1.344 units;
0.025 units on Wanderlei Silva Submission of the Night at +3000 to win 0.75 units;
0.064 units on Shogun Submission of the Night at +3000 to win 1.92 units;
0.085 units on Kampmann Submission of the Night at +1800 to win 1.53 units.
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You sure this is allowed? Looks like a great idea, but I'm not sure what will happen if it hits. Going to look at some rules and see if I can figure something out.Originally posted by rocky mattioliComment -
Originally posted by Kaladarus
i was thinking the exact same thing...they took the wager...so,we`ll have to see what happens from there....
probably shouldn`t have posted this....but it`s no biggie...just trying to find an edge wherever possible and enjoy sharing what i can offer to the board......Comment -
It's a mistake. If you're lucky it'll slip under the radar. If you're unlucky, they'll close your account straight up. At least with 5 dimes you know they'll pay out your funds.Originally posted by rocky mattioli
Avoid doing this stuff, they obviously should be on their toes, but books don't like to get screwed like this. I mean books will throw you out for plays with 40% correlation, 100% correlation is begging for it.Comment -
Rocky -- I hate to be a party pooper... But I did this a few weeks ago and HIT IT BIG by parlaying several 100% correlated parlays (WON 200 UNITS). I came home -- logged in... and my account was suspended and they transferred me to Tony himself.Originally posted by rocky mattioli
Let me tell you... he was NOT nice. He voided everything. He warned me that if it ever happens again... I will be barred for life.
Here's the rule from their rulebook:
At managerial discretion, correlated plays will be voided or split into separate straight wagers with the risk amount divided equally. Plays on correlated events include: multiple selections on the same team/player in the same event, multiple selections against the same team/player in the same event, or any other combination where one event directly affects further selections in the play, including Live In-Play wagers. Players will never be given the benefit if there is any doubt regarding intentions of correlated plays and winnings will be voided. No warnings will be given.Comment -
Originally posted by TheCalculator
it was a small wager.....it wasn`t with malice aforethought.....anyway,i had an issue with 5 dimes last week in which i felt like i got the shitty end of the stick.....interesting conversation...
*Please wait for a site operator to respond.
You are now chatting with 'Manny'
Manny: Hello. How may I assist you today?
rocky: hi...you guys cancelled one leg of my parlay after it won......it was wager 9--------1....alvarado wins inside the distance.....there was no round limit on the wager...just inside the distance...and alvarado won in the last round......
what`s going on?
Manny: Can you please confirm your account number and password?
rocky: sure...5d------- ....-------05
manny: Just a moment please
manny: It was mistyped, it's a push because there are 10 rounds, not 12.
rocky: it didn`t stipulate whether it was 10 or 12...it said "inside the distance"....and your straight wager on the fight stipulated 10 rounds....and i wagered on it as if it were a 10 rounder.....i would have liked 2 extra rounds,but it wasn`t offered or needed....
manny: Well sir I just checked and that's the situation. Sorry for the inconvenience.
rocky: i`ve been a loyal customer....and i feel as though you did me wrong here.....
Manny: Sorry Sir. I'd love to help you but it is not in my hands. My apologies, have a good night.
rocky:goodnight*
maybe they`ll cut me some slack this time around... or maybe not....obviously,anything that happens is at their discretion....we have no right of appeal...
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I record all my conversations with them using Screenflow (for MAC -- you can use Camtasia for PC).Originally posted by rocky mattioli
it was a small wager.....it wasn`t with malice aforethought.....anyway,i had an issue with 5 dimes last week in which i felt like i got the shitty end of the stick.....interesting conversation...
maybe they`ll cut me some slack this time around... or maybe not....obviously,anything that happens is at their discretion....we have no right of appeal...
In my enlightening chat with him...
Tony said he doubt that I was honest (with my intentions)... and I asked him why he would say that?
The replied because: he's an asshole and he's the boss.
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i have a friend that was kicked out of s dimes(actually 2)......one guy because he called tony "a dispenser of vinegar and water".(if you get my drift).....Originally posted by TheCalculatorI record all my conversations with them using Screenflow (for MAC -- you can use Camtasia for PC).
In my enlightening chat with him...
Tony said he doubt that I was honest (with my intentions)... and I asked him why he would say that?
The replied because: he's an asshole and he's the boss.
if i have a conversation with him,i`ll be sure to mind my manners......
thanks for the help.guys.....much appreciated...
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Tht's bullsh*t...inside the distance is inside the distance! If he'd of won by decision do you think they'd of voided it! I'd of put in a complaint with SBR...depending on how much u lost/stood to wonOriginally posted by rocky mattioliit was a small wager.....it wasn`t with malice aforethought.....anyway,i had an issue with 5 dimes last week in which i felt like i got the shitty end of the stick.....interesting conversation...
*Please wait for a site operator to respond.
You are now chatting with 'Manny'
Manny: Hello. How may I assist you today?
rocky: hi...you guys cancelled one leg of my parlay after it won......it was wager 9--------1....alvarado wins inside the distance.....there was no round limit on the wager...just inside the distance...and alvarado won in the last round......
what`s going on?
Manny: Can you please confirm your account number and password?
rocky: sure...5d------- ....-------05
manny: Just a moment please
manny: It was mistyped, it's a push because there are 10 rounds, not 12.
rocky: it didn`t stipulate whether it was 10 or 12...it said "inside the distance"....and your straight wager on the fight stipulated 10 rounds....and i wagered on it as if it were a 10 rounder.....i would have liked 2 extra rounds,but it wasn`t offered or needed....
manny: Well sir I just checked and that's the situation. Sorry for the inconvenience.
rocky: i`ve been a loyal customer....and i feel as though you did me wrong here.....
Manny: Sorry Sir. I'd love to help you but it is not in my hands. My apologies, have a good night.
rocky:goodnight*
maybe they`ll cut me some slack this time around... or maybe not....obviously,anything that happens is at their discretion....we have no right of appeal...Comment -
Originally posted by Vaughany
i thought so,too....
...it`s all good....i can do the martyr thing...
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i`m wondering whether rua might go to a kick-heavy attack here...he`s done it very effectively in some predominantly stand-up fights.....
not as impressed with henderson`s take down ability from outside as some...in a clinch,o.k.,that greco comes into play...but if henderson stands outside with those thin legs and gets continually hammered by the bigger man,he could definitely even out the cardio issue and collapse hendo`s base.....
he`s not gonna walk through rua like he did with bisping...and i totally disagree with mmabetmaster(who i respect) on feijao being better than rua(that one stumped me).....
if this was 3,i`m on rua...but it being 5 and not really knowing how rua approaches this makes it probably a no-go here...
....Comment -
yeah I'd of probably played Shogun by decision if it was a 3 rounder. Really dont know with this one, I see some people saying tht the fight will favour Shogun the longer it goes on. Im not sure about that, unless like you say he uses leg kicks to slow Hendo down and dismantle him round by round. The first Machida fight was the only fight where I haven't seen Shogun gassed out in 3rd or later (obviously the fights he finished in 1st round against Machida, Liddel and Forrest dont count) but even against Coleman which he won he was gassed in the third. I kinda think if he doesnt finish Dan in Rounds 1 or 2 he could be in trouble - and that's not an easy feat against somebody with Henderson's chin. But then Henderson got dropped by Cavalcante - Shogun will probably be more clinical if he catches Dan.Originally posted by rocky mattioliComment -
Originally posted by Vaughany
this and the cung le/silva fight have me about as confused as i`ve ever been....the reason being,we can`t get inside these guys` heads......if silva stands outside and lets le peck away with all those crazy kicks and quick in-and-out attacks,he`ll take a beating and probably get caught at some point.........if silva decides(rightly,imo) that he has to close distance at any price and can clinch,i think he can rough le up and maybe make him quit late as he gasses......i know le has great throws,but i can`t see le trying to g+p silva...silva has to be on le....the speed difference is ridiculous here...
you just never know what these guys are thinking and whether they`re deluding themselves into thinking they can beat an opponent at his own game.....ala our good buddy kampmann...
just thinking out loud...thanks for humoring old rocky...
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Exactly right! I just hope some of these guys watched Ronda Roussey's performance last night...she didnt mess around trying to prove she can stand with Budd... just went directly at her with immediate pressure and got the job done in like 40 seconds!Comment -
Summary of UFC 139 Plays:
Have a number of arbs to back up some of these plays. Will make 5.113 units if Wanderlei/Cung Le goes the distance or 0.157 if it doesn't - this acts as support in case the fight doesn't end by KO.Originally posted by Vaughany
Also will make 3.592 units if Lawlor wins or 0.86 units if Weidman wins. Will make 3.254 units if Faber wins by decision, or 2.451 units if he doesn't win by decision. And just got Wanderlei at +156 and Cung Le at -137.5 so will make 6.8 units if Wand wins, or 0.1 units if Cung Le wins. Best of luck all
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just played rua/henderson finishes 2 full rounds(-125) at sportsbook...Comment -
weidman
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