Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vitooch]

Weidman SOTN at +1100 is insane value...

Good shit

[Vaughany]

Weidman SOTN at +1100 is insane value...

Good shit

Was on 5dimes/sportbet

[Vitooch]

Was on 5dimes/sportbet

Wish I had the funds to make plays like that. Often times my money is tied in NFL spread bets so I'm forced to only make a few solid straight up plays for MMA cards :/

[jacktheknife]

Wrong thread

[Vaughany]

Summary of UFC 139 Plays:



Have a number of arbs to back up some of these plays. Will make 5.113 units if Wanderlei/Cung Le goes the distance or 0.157 if it doesn't - this acts as support in case the fight doesn't end by KO.
Also will make 3.592 units if Lawlor wins or 0.86 units if Weidman wins. Will make 3.254 units if Faber wins by decision, or 2.451 units if he doesn't win by decision. And just got Wanderlei at +156 and Cung Le at -137.5 so will make 6.8 units if Wand wins, or 0.1 units if Cung Le wins. Best of luck all

Added more to Wanderlei/Cung Le arb...will make a further 3.139 units if it doesn't go the distance (-275), or 0.08 units if it does.

A Wanderlei TKO/KO would be perfect!

[Vaughany]

Bonnar controlling kingsbu on the ground as I said he would, kingsbu needs the ko now in rnd 3

[Vulcan300]

kampmann by decision and faber with the win!

[Vaughany]

And Wanderlei TKO/KO

WOW what an event!

[SportsPedagogy]

Nice job Bro! As usual

[v1y]

do the books payout FOTN bets even though dana awarded 2? how does that work?

[SportsPedagogy]

What two did he award ?

[NunyaBidness]

What two did he award ?

Hopefully the other one went to Alvarez/Chandler, it was definitely the second best fight of the night.

[v1y]

le/silva and hendo/shogun won fotn, mcdonald kotn, faber sotn.

[NunyaBidness]

do the books payout FOTN bets even though dana awarded 2? how does that work?

Good books will. There was a card a while back that had either 2 kon or son and both paid. Can't remember which.

[v1y]

i wouldn't think a book was bad for voiding that bet.

[Kaladarus]

5dimes has still paid in the past.

[BIGDAY]

Bonnar controlling kingsbu on the ground as I said he would, kingsbu needs the ko now in rnd 3

Very smart gameplan by Bonnar. I wanted Bonnar to brawl.

Nice hit!

[Vaughany]

Good books will. There was a card a while back that had either 2 kon or son and both paid. Can't remember which.

i wouldn't think a book was bad for voiding that bet.

Happened once before with me when I had Schaub KOTN (and Koch got it as well as their were no subs) and the book just halved the winnings I believe (was with Stan James I think). Although this case is slightly different as Dana is just giving an extra FOTN for the fun of it even though there was a SOTN and KOTN. So guess a book could void the FOTN wagers

[Vitooch]

Very smart gameplan by Bonnar. I wanted Bonnar to brawl.

Nice hit!

His fight with Igor was a good indication that Bonnar may choose to fight on the safe side.

Kingsbury was way overvalued here.

[Vaughany]

His fight with Igor was a good indication that Bonnar may choose to fight on the safe side.

Kingsbury was way overvalued here.

That he was.

[Das Jax]

i wouldn't think a book was bad for voiding that bet.

I sure would.

[Vaughany]

Talking of books being dodgy and voiding bets, WilliamHIll just voiding the Frank Mir leg of this parlay:

Parlay: 10 units on Ben Henderson (-225), Faber (-200), & Mir (-250) to win 20.333 units.

Apparently (according to them) it was scheduled to take place on Monday 14th November at 18.28 and as it didn't it has been voided! I told the retard on customer services that it was clearly listed under UFC140 (Dec 10th) when I did the parlay and he said that they'd been given the said 14th November date by the UFC and that it had since been changed! I tried to explain that there as never been a UFC PPV event on a Monday night so would make no sense to have it listed on tht date! He then referred me to the UFC.com updates page for UFC 141 which is completely irrelevant as the fight is happening on UFC 140! Pretty pissed as I've now only made 11.667 units profit from Henderson and Faber double, rather than being in situation where I'd of had 10 units on Mir to win 20.333 units.

[1nce]

Talking of books being dodgy and voiding bets, WilliamHIll just voiding the Frank Mir leg of this parlay:

Parlay: 10 units on Ben Henderson (-225), Faber (-200), & Mir (-250) to win 20.333 units.

Apparently (according to them) it was scheduled to take place on Monday 14th November at 18.28 and as it didn't it has been voided! I told the retard on customer services that it was clearly listed under UFC140 (Dec 10th) when I did the parlay and he said that they'd been given the said 14th November date by the UFC and that it had since been changed! I tried to explain that there as never been a UFC PPV event on a Monday night so would make no sense to have it listed on tht date! He then referred me to the UFC.com updates page for UFC 141 which is completely irrelevant as the fight is happening on UFC 140! Pretty pissed as I've now only made 11.667 units profit from Henderson and Faber double, rather than being in situation where I'd of had 10 units on Mir to win 20.333 units.

Here's what you should do:

http://www.ibas-uk.com/

Give 'em hell!

[Beelzebubzy]

No parlays with Gustaffson in them?

[Vaughany]

No parlays with Gustaffson in them?

Might do when more odds come out for future fights. Will probably take inside the distance or by TKO/KO at better value tho

[FlashinLeather]

great calls last night

[Vaughany]

Nice job Bro! As usual

Very smart gameplan by Bonnar. I wanted Bonnar to brawl.

Nice hit!

Yeah, refreshing to see guys like Bonnar fight smart now and again tho!

Here's what you should do:

http://www.ibas-uk.com/

Give 'em hell!

I would but dont think it's worth the bother. I still made the money of Henderson and Faber double, and I did get Pierce at +250 last week on WH and they paid up so I can't complain in grand scheme of things - the Pierce bet is probably why they are being awkward now tho!

[Vaughany]

great calls last night

Cheers

[Vaughany]

Warriors...

[BIGDAY]

Warriors...

I honestly can not imagine. Hendo looked like he needed a wheelchair after that fight. If I was him I would have asked for one.

Truly a great fight.

[Vaughany]

UFC 139 Review:

UFC 139 plays so far:


Parlay: 10 units on Ben Henderson (-225), Faber (-200), & Mir (-250) to win 20.333 units (Mir bet was voided so profit was actually 11.667 units);


6.117 units on Kampmann at +115 to win 7.035 units;


10.693 units on Weidman/Lawlor to Go the Distance at -170 to win 6.29 units;


2.263 units on Shogun/Hendo to Go Over 1.5 Rnds at -175 to win 1.293 units;


3.78 units on Wanderlei/Cung Le to End by KO at +170 to win 6.426 units;

0.533 units on Wanderlei Silva by TKO/KO at +250 to win 1.332 units;


1.302 units on Faber/Bowles to Go the Distance at Evens to win 1.302 units;

1.559 units on Faber/Bowles to Go the Distance at -120 to win 1.299 units;

0.747 units on Faber by Decision at +175 to win 1.307 units;

0.79 units on Faber by Decision at +162.5 to win 1.284 units;

0.17 units on Bowles by TKO/KO at +800 to win 1.36 units;

0.042 units on Bowles KO of the Night at +5000 to win 2.1 units;


2.413 units on Story/Kampmann to Go the Distance at -187.5 to win 1.287 units;

0.533 units on Kampmann by Decision at +250 to win 1.332 units;

0.234 units on Story by TKO/KO at +600 to win 1.404 units;


1.921 units on McDonald/Soto to Not go the Distance at -150 to win 1.281 units;


Parlay: 1.582 units on McDonald/Soto to Go Over 1.5 Rounds (-160), Not Kingsbu by Submission (-4230), Not Story by Submission (-1875), Not Cung Le by Submission (-4755), Not Henderson by Submission (-3700), & Jason Miller (+180) to win 6.554 units;


Parlay: 1.583 units on Brown/Baczynski Over 1.5 rounds (-170), Not Kingsbu by Submission (-4230), Not Cung Le by Submission (-4185), & Jason Miller (+180) to win 5.794 units;


Parlay: 1.898 units on McDonald/Soto Over 1.5 Rounds (-160), Weidman by Submission (+275), Not Kingsbu by Submission (-4230), & Not Cung Le by Submission (-4755) to win 10.189 units;


0.1 units on McDonald by Submission at +550 to win 0.55 units;

0.025 units on Soto by TKO/KO at +700 to win 0.175 units;


0.5 units on Tibau by Decision at +140 to win 0.7 units;


0.747 units on Torres by Decision at +175 to win 1.307 units;


0.384 units on Matt Brown by Decision at +350 to win 1.344 units;


0.025 units on Wanderlei Silva Submission of the Night at +3000 to win 0.75 units;


0.064 units on Shogun Submission of the Night at +3000 to win 1.92 units;


0.085 units on Kampmann Submission of the Night at +1800 to win 1.53 units.

Summary of UFC 139 Plays:



Have a number of arbs to back up some of these plays. Will make 5.113 units if Wanderlei/Cung Le goes the distance or 0.157 if it doesn't - this acts as support in case the fight doesn't end by KO.
Also will make 3.592 units if Lawlor wins or 0.86 units if Weidman wins. Will make 3.254 units if Faber wins by decision, or 2.451 units if he doesn't win by decision. And just got Wanderlei at +156 and Cung Le at -137.5 so will make 6.8 units if Wand wins, or 0.1 units if Cung Le wins. Best of luck all

Added more to Wanderlei/Cung Le arb...will make a further 3.139 units if it doesn't go the distance (-275), or 0.08 units if it does.

A Wanderlei TKO/KO would be perfect!

Total stake: 55.418 units

Return: 70.658 units

Profit: +15.24 units (+28.647 units including arbs)



Bonnar/Kingsbu:

yeah but Bonnar is so hard to finish, I guess with his takedowns Kingsbu could get the nod in a decision and he could hurt Bonnar with his knees in the clinch. But as Bonnar showed against KSos and Pokrajac, he has a solid clinch game and will be interesting to see who comes out on top in that as Kingsbu also likes to use the clinch to deliver knees (as he did against Romero and Maldonado). Since the Coleman loss I think Bonnar has started fighting smarter as well and looked for takedowns more. He took Pokrajac a few times and dominated him on the ground and also took KSoz down with trips from the clinch on a couple of occasions. I think it would be a good strategy to try this on Kingsbu and won't be surprised if he does it as I think Bonnar's biggest advantage would be when he has top control. And Bonnar did take out KSos - does Kingsbu offer a greater threat than Soszynski did? Pretty much irrelevant as it was on TUF and a long time ago but KSos walked through Kingsbu on the show. Kingsbury has clearly evolved since then though - is now a physical specimen and has greatly improved Muay Thai. But he has had match-ups against smaller 205ers - Razak (quite skinny), Romero (soft 205), Hamman (now at 185), even Maldonado could perhaps cut to 185. Bonnar on the other hand is a legit LHW (walks around at 230 to 235 lb range) so Kingsbu won't have the size advantage that he's enjoyed previously (even if he is still the better athlete). Kingsbury also didn't exactly breeze past his previous opponents (apart from Romero) - Al-Hassan was a split, the Hamann fight was very close, and some thought Maldonado deserved the win based on damage. Kingsbu being in his peak physical state could be the key though, with Bonnar being a battle hardened vet who could be at the tail-end of his career - as you say coming from a long-lay-off and he must have a lot of lingering injuries from his long career.
I am regretting not taking Bonnar when he was +161 underdog though - was great value in hindsight but I was too busy concentrating on UFC on FOX bets. It should go back up though to +135 or something though.
FOTN might also be a decent play to consider.

Main regrets on the night was not going with my instincts on Weidman and more specifically Bonnar. At least with Weidman it was chalky so was maybe the right decision (in the long term) to not take the risk, but with Bonnar who was clearly an undeserved underdog I should of gone with my gut-feeling that he'd fight smart. As I said above, the Coleman loss was clearly a big eye-opener for him, where he realized that he needed to use his own grappling expertise more often as it's just not sustainable nowadays being a crowd-pleasing brawler. The Pokrajac fight set a precedent and should of expected that he'd follow that up with a similar performance in terms of strategy. If I could of been sure that Bonnar would have that strategy then it would of been a 10 unit play minimum for me at the +150 odds, as I was confident Kingsbu would be out of his depth if he ended up on his back. The size equaliser also played a big part as I expected - all of Kingsbu's previous 4 opponents were smaller than him - I think he found it surprising that he wasn't able to bully Bonnar around like he did them (though it shouldn't of been surprising seeing as Bonnar is 6ft 4, cuts a lot of weight and is good in the clinch)! Oh well, at least I had a load of SBR points on him and included him in the contest!

Kampmann/Story:

Yep you are right, he certainly could just grind Kampmann against the cage for 3 rounds. For Kampmann backers (such as me) you're basically counting on Kampmann using the Thiago Alves fight as a "how not to fight against Story" guide and to not let Story just keep pressing him against the cage. Unlike Thiago Alves, the Hitman has a much more aggressive submission game, so I expect him to be looking for guillotines as soon as Story puts his neck down to look for a takedown.

Has Kampmann ever been controlled on the ground? He has one of the most under-rated grappling games in MMA, ask Jacob Volkmann and P.Thiago.

Kampmann has decent trip-takedowns as well that he used to good effect in each round of the Condit fight (and which probably helped earn him the split-decision in that fight). He also took Rivera and McFedries down smartly and choked them out. I wish he'd use them more, especially against a guy like Story who is wild and aggressive.

Again this fight went exactly how I hoped and mostly how I predicted. Kampmann learnt from his previous decision loss to Sanchez and fought smartly after overcoming a tough first couple of minutes. Instead of continually backing up and just holding Story or taking punches he circled more and reversed position against the cage so that it was him having octagon control. Then there was the beautiful leg-trip (which I hoped and expected he'd utilize) to get Story to the mat in the 2nd and picked him apart on the feet - Story's defense both in stand-up and wrestling needs a lot of work IMO.


Wanderlei/Cung Le:

15 months since Cung Le last fought and he's faced average to mediocre competition (and lost in one of those fights)...wouldn't fill me with confidence if backing Cung as favourite even against Wanderlei

Too many questions/variables in this Wand/Le fight for me. Are people exaggerating Wanderlei's decline? Is this another Schaub/Big Nog situation where everybody is jumping on the "Pride legend is shot" bandwagon? Yes his UFC record is poor, but he's faced high-level competition. Is getting KO'd by Leben an indication of a glass-chin? His other KO losses where Rampage and Henderson - hardly embarrassing. Wanderlei beat Bisping 18 months ago - how would CUng Le fair against anybody that Wanderlei has faced since he joined the UFC?

Too many variables really - if I did bet I'd take Wanderlei at +120 dog or better - but that is relying on Wanderlei being smart and using Cung's kicks to get the takedown and use his ground game - which is an unlikely expectation. I'm also not convinced that Wanderlei suddenly has a "glass chin" after that Leben KO. No doubt he isn't anywhere near as durable as he used to be but I don't think he should be written off completely quite yet - many made the same mistake with Big Nog before the Schaub fight and look how tht turned out. I do think that both have a chance of getting KO of the Night though which may be the best value play

He hasn't really been getting KO'd 2 out of 3 fights now has he? He didn't get knocked out by Franklin, didn't get knocked out by Bisping. Before that he was Ko'd by Rampage and Henderson but they are two of the hardest hitters in the game - you dont have to have a glass chin to get Ko'd by them. And Jardine and Liddell didn't KO him. The only way you could possibly think he has a glass chin is based on tht last fight against Leben - but then Leben is also one of the hardest hitters in MMA.

Think it's fair to say that many were getting carried away with the whole "Wanderlei is washed up and has a glass-chin bandwagon"! He took some hard shots in that fight and I was concerned with his strategy in first round when he kept backing up against the cage and standing there...almost giving Cung Le a free-ride at setting up kicks, but he showed that there is still some fight in him yet. However, Cung didnt look in great shape - was soft and fact of the matter is that he isn't that great an MMA fighter and had nether been tested before against anybody close to Wanderlei's level. Wanderlei by TKO/KO was perfect result for me.


Hendo/Shogun:

Usually I'd agree, but with the fights that there are on the main card I'd be SHOCKED if one of them doesn't get it. Every fight on main card has a legit chance - Kampmann/Story could end up being similar to Sanchez/Kampmann except Story has more power than Sanchez, Kingsbu/Bonnar obviously has a high chance of being entertaining, I've yet to see Bowles or Faber in a boring fight so put them together and it suggests fireworks, Wanderlei/Cung Le if it makes it past the first round should be entertaining and the main event is between two guys with great chins who are stand-up orientated and is 5 rounds so they have a big advantage as 5 round main events usually get the nod from Dana - unless there is a brutal KO then either will get that. Undoubtedly this is potentially one of the most exciting cards per fight ever IMO.

Although I picked Hendo I'm kinda glad I didn't have money on him in a way as that fight was ridiculous! Was worried for Shogun when he came out - looked a bit soft around the mid-section similarly to Bones fight, but nonetheless his determination got him through and he put up an amazing resistance and fight-back. Clearly also should of gone with my initial thought that Hendo/Shogun would get the nod for FOTN as it was between two guys with granite chins and a 5 rounder - obviously didn't expect to be as entertaining as it was tho - would be a massive lie to claim that!

All in all an amazing night of fights

[Eccocide]

great job V.

[Vaughany]

Record Review:

Since Bellator 26 (August 26th 2010):

Bellator 26: +0.45 units
UFC 118: +6.11 units
MFC Retribution: -1.6 units
UFC Fight Night 22: +5.55 units
UFC 119: +1.5 units
WEC 51: +1.07 units
Cage Warriors 38: +11 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Noons 2: +2.417 units
UFC 120: -0.589 units
UFC 121: +9.011 units
WEC 52: -1.274 units
UFC 122: +17.355 units
Strikeforce Challengers 12: +0.865 units
UFC 123: +1.609 units
TUF 12 Finale: +9.556 units
K1 Grand Prix 2010 Review: +1.1 units
UFC 124: +5.135 units
WEC 53: +0.059 units
Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite: +1.354 units
UFC 125: +3.095 units
UFC Fight for the Troops 2: +3.961 units
UFC 126: +24.577 units
Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva: +0.941 units
MFC 28 Supremacy: +8.594 units
BAMMA 5: +0.84 units
UFC 127: +10.945 units
UFC Live on Versus 3: +11.622 units
Strikeforce Columbus: -1.4 units
UFC 128: +22.131 units
Bellator 38: +4.875 units
UFC Fight Night 24: +44.283 units
Bellator 40: +2.325 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley: -5.527 units
Bellator 41: -0.7 units
UFC 129: +77.484 units

(Not including risk-free arbs on record from UFC 130 onwards):

UFC 130: +45.077 units
TUF 13 Finale: -16.766 units
UFC 131: +17.688 units
Strikeforce: Overeem vs Werdum: +11.474 units
UFC Versus 4: +25.288 units
UFC 132: +1.783 units
Cage Warriors 43: +1.308 units
Strikeforce: Henderson vs Fedor: +3.274 units
UFC 133: -12.302 units
UFC Versus 5: -5.073 units
UFC 134: -10.214 units
UFC Battle on the Bayou: +20.466
Titan Fighting Championships 19: -1.863 units
UFC 135: +53.938 units
UFC Versus 6: +4.021 units
UFC 136: -33.134 units
Bellator 55: -5.731 units
UFC 137: +4.337 units
UFC 138: +57.692 units
UFC on FOX: +5.087 units
UFC 139: +15.24 units

Total profit: +460.313 units

[Vaughany]

great job V.

[zerohedge]

Tailed you on Kampmann. Thanks!

some for your effort: