Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

Adding:

1.48 units on Overeem in Rnd 1 at +225 to win 3.33 units;

hedged with:

2.149 units on Fight Starts Rnd 2 at -145 to win 1.482 units.

1.181 units profit if Overeem does win in Round 1, overall stake back for both plays if he or Werdum don't finish in Rnd 1. Only risk is if Werdum wins in 1st which I doubt happens.

[Hannibal]

What I don't get is... Your bank roll has increased so much, yet you still make plays of 10 pounds here, 20 pounds there. Why don't use your br more effectively?

[Vaughany]

What I don't get is... Your bank roll has increased so much, yet you still make plays of 10 pounds here, 20 pounds there. Why don't use your br more effectively?

a) bet limits - do you not think I'd put a grand on the play above if I could?!
b) I've got about 300 riding on Cheick Kongo and a grand tied up in an arb on Klitschko and Haye and I can't deposit more money in to my sportbet account currently due to some restriction shit on moneybookers

[Hannibal]

Do all bookies eventually limit u if you are successful? Or only the small ones?does that mean it will be impossible to do this for a comfortable living?
What about sites like pinnacle, with very large limits? As long as the profit, would they care how succesful u are?

[koscheckbaby]

Tough to call, guess u have to assume that they are gonna stand and bang which helps Hardy a bit as Lytle has better ground game. Lytle was contemplating retirement recently due to his dodgy knees. Hardy might be slightly quicker to the punch, I'm considering a play on Hardy by decision. I expect fight to go distance though.

Is it wrong that I'm considering this fight kind of like Stout vs Edwards? By that, I mean the more skilled veteran, who has accrued damage, going against a more in their prime striker with a granite chin. Like Stout, Hardy's KO power has been oversold. However, I think it's entirely possible all the mileage on Lytle's chin catches up to him in this fight. Hardy isn't pillow-fisted. If it stays standing the whole time, I'm kinda liking Hardy by stoppage.

[Vaughany]

Is it wrong that I'm considering this fight kind of like Stout vs Edwards? By that, I mean the more skilled veteran, who has accrued damage, going against a more in their prime striker with a granite chin. Like Stout, Hardy's KO power has been oversold. However, I think it's entirely possible all the mileage on Lytle's chin catches up to him in this fight. Hardy isn't pillow-fisted. If it stays standing the whole time, I'm kinda liking Hardy by stoppage.

Yeah doesn't seem so far-fetched to me, I certainly think Hardy has a better chance of TKO'ing Lytle than vice-versa. I'm not sure Lytle can be finished from a counter-punch tho - Lytle will most likely be the one pushing forward with Hardy countering.

[Johan_Haas_]

Do all bookies eventually limit u if you are successful? Or only the small ones?does that mean it will be impossible to do this for a comfortable living? What about sites like pinnacle, with very large limits? As long as the profit, would they care how succesful u are?

ehm max bet for most fights is a bet that gives you 250$ in winnings. So it's quite hard to do this on a high stakes level.

[scofflaw]

I've completed my bets for Saturday. I have ~30% of my BR in play (I need to find that post on the unit system)

50% on A.Overeem @ -360
46% on Griggs @ -130
4% on Masvidal @ +125

I'm also in big on Kongo -175 and Guillard -240

[MMAbetMASTA]

I like Cruz a lot, but I'm a lot more confident of him winning by decision than I am of sub or TKO. If he was at better than evens I'd probly play him straight up but when by decision is available at +170 compared to straight up at -120 I'll happily take my chances that he won't finish Faber.

Regarding "hedged" you're pretty much spot on. If I think in a match-up one fighter only has one main route to victory then I will either play that prop straight-up or play it and hedge with the opponent to win. So take the Pettis vs Guida fight for instance, both Ladle and I thought Pettis had more ways to win the fight than Guida who we thought only had one route to victory (decision) so played Pettis straight-up and hedged it with Guida by decision as we realised that even know we liked Pettis to win there was always a good chance of Guida taking a decision (which quite evidently turned out to be a good decision)! So with these Cruz by decision and Stungun by decision plays I need to decide whether to leave them as they are or whether to take the safer option of hedging Cruz by dec with Faber straight up at +110, or/and hedging Stung Gun by decision with Condit straight up at Evens/+110 or better.

Ahhh, gotcha!!! Thanks for the info man!

I know you commented my SF thread, but real quick who do you objectively got in Wilcox/JZ and Noons/Jorge?

I already placed on griggs, still contemplating these two for str8 plays (still not set up on a site for props).. what do you think about str8 plays on these two?

[Vaughany]

Ahhh, gotcha!!! Thanks for the info man!

I know you commented my SF thread, but real quick who do you objectively got in Wilcox/JZ and Noons/Jorge?

I already placed on griggs, still contemplating these two for str8 plays (still not set up on a site for props).. what do you think about str8 plays on these two?

They are both difficult to call and I'm staying away from them. If I had to pick I'd take Wilcox at plus odds but I think he wins this by decision a lot more often than he does by TKO/Sub so I'd consider a Wilcox by decision play over anything if available. Noons/Masvidal is tough one because like Ladle said it depends on Masvidal's game plan. If he looks for takedowns and lands a few he could steal a decision. So I'd take Masvidal at plus odds, I'd be surprised if one out of Wilcox and Masvidal don't win. Again tho I think it's safer to play Masvidal/Noons goes distance.

[reformed]

vaughany what do you think is the best straight up play for strikeforce tomorrow?

[Vaughany]

Summary of plays for Strikeforce: Overeem vs Werdum:


30 units on Overeem by TKO/KO or Decision at -150 to win 20 units;

hedged with:

10 units on Werdum at +275 to win 27.5 units;


1.48 units on Overeem in Rnd 1 at +225 to win 3.33 units;

hedged with:

2.149 units on Fight Starts Rnd 2 at -145 to win 1.482 units;


0.357 units on Overeem by TKO/KO at +187.5 to win 0.669 units;


1.49 units on Griggs at -120 to win 1.241 units;

1 unit on Griggs at -170 to win 0.588 units.


BOL all

[Hannibal]

wow u get a lot of ridiculous lines...
bookies just love giving you money.
overeem by tko or decision at -150??? wow

[rocky mattioli]

i think masvidal should approach this like he did the evangelista fight......come forward and rough him up.....even fight a little wild offensively....

i thought that heun`s aggressive pressure threw noons off his game...some guys like to take their time....noons is one of those guys....

but if masvidal gets overly tactical and gives noons time to look for and find openings,he could get picked apart....

masvidal rag-dolled evangelista.....he needs to push noons...

tough,tough fight to call...

[jesuseatsnubs]

1 hour left till the prelims start !! best of luck all .. although I sure as hell won't be needing it .. lol

[Vaughany]

Strikeforce: Overeem vs Werdum Results:

Summary of plays for Strikeforce: Overeem vs Werdum:


30 units on Overeem by TKO/KO or Decision at -150 to win 20 units;

hedged with:

10 units on Werdum at +275 to win 27.5 units;


1.48 units on Overeem in Rnd 1 at +225 to win 3.33 units;

hedged with:

2.149 units on Fight Starts Rnd 2 at -145 to win 1.482 units;


0.357 units on Overeem by TKO/KO at +187.5 to win 0.669 units;


1.49 units on Griggs at -120 to win 1.241 units;

1 unit on Griggs at -170 to win 0.588 units.


BOL all

Review:

Total stake: 46.476 units

Total return: 57.95 units

Profit: +11.474 units

[scofflaw]

I've completed my bets for Saturday. I have ~30% of my BR in play (I need to find that post on the unit system)

50% on A.Overeem @ -360
46% on Griggs @ -130
4% on Masvidal @ +125

Reporting in early. I only bet those 3 but hit em all. Took the money wagered/won on Griggs and Masvidal and put it all on Reem at -325 (I was more confident than I should have been). I made 84% of the amount I had originally wagered back in profits. Hope everyone did well too!

[Vaughany]

Reporting in early. I only bet those 3 but hit em all. Took the money wagered/won on Griggs and Masvidal and put it all on Reem at -325 (I was more confident than I should have been). I made 84% of the amount I had originally wagered back in profits. Hope everyone did well too!

Gd job, I should of been more confident in Reem but couldn't rule out him gassing, and didn't wanna risk going in to Versus 4 and UFC 132 coming off a loss.

[Vaughany]

Also had $50 on a double of Cormier by decision and Masvidal/Noons going distance, but the $50 was off one of the free Sportbet cash bonuses from SBR store so wont include in my record. Solid night of profits tho.

[reformed]

is kongo -155 a good bet? I am still pondering about that one

[scofflaw]

Well done to you too. Some of your props and hedges are so good that you can't go wrong. That big Reem play was an amazing value.

I didn't think Werdum would be able to manipulate a man that much stronger, who would be well prepared for TD/BJJ defense. Turns out he didn't want to try on the ground.

[marzenabudzinska]

anything pending bro! last nights have been awesome...thanks a lot for sharing!

[thesox0311]

I got to tell ya im crazy happy about getting Nate at +105....i think hes bigger, stronger, and a much better fighter not to mention story will be fighting on 1 months rest. Thoughts on this one?

[cheeese]

I think he will find that Nate hits just as hard if not harder than Alves and is physically stronger in the clinch.

[reformed]

hey vaughny, is larkin at -105 a good bet?

[R6MC]

I think he will find that Nate hits just as hard if not harder than Alves and is physically stronger in the clinch.

no shit

[Vaughany]

hey vaughny, is larkin at -105 a good bet?

Well in comparison to the odds he came out at it would seem a good bet. People may be counting on Villante learning from the Griggs fight and actually using his half decent wrestling and fight smarter. Larkin seems legit tho for sure

[Vaughany]

Currently in South of Spain consuming way too much alcohol, will hopefully get a chance to post my plays tomorrow before the fights!

[Vaughany]

I got to tell ya im crazy happy about getting Nate at +105....i think hes bigger, stronger, and a much better fighter not to mention story will be fighting on 1 months rest. Thoughts on this one?

I agree, I´ve got a play on him at +110, which is very good value. People are clearly riding high on Story after the Alves win, but all that fight demonstrated for me was that Alves had a terrible strategy and Story has a solid chin! If Marquardt fights smart and doesnt just back up in to the cage then he should take this, I cant help but recall Story´s performances again Osipzcak and Hathaway. Obviously the weight cut is playing a large factor in the odds tht we are seeing but I dont think the cut is going to be a big issue for Nate surprisingly. He´s done practice cuts before and felt fine and Chaimberg says he looks stronger and quicker than ever.

[koscheckbaby]

Part of can't touch Nate, since even Dan Miller put him on his ass with his shitty wrestling. Story could just hug Marquardt and I'd be a raving lunatic watching it

[illmatick]

Part of can't touch Nate, since even Dan Miller put him on his ass with his shitty wrestling. Story could just hug Marquardt and I'd be a raving lunatic watching it

Sorta agree here. Marquardt's wrestling is a bit of an enigma. It's still tough for me to gauge just how good of a wrestler he really is.

I think this fight as well as Lentz/olivera are the perfect fights to straddle with decisions. Might be hard finding a good price on Story by decision, though.

[reformed]

Currently in South of Spain consuming way too much alcohol, will hopefully get a chance to post my plays tomorrow before the fights!

looking forward to it! So far my only locked in MMA bets are kongo at -155 and cruz at -130. I need action on at least 1 fight so I can enjoy it when I go watch at bar tonight.

[Wrecked]

Why isn't anyone pounding nate mardquate?

[NunyaBidness]

Why isn't anyone pounding nate mardquate?

Weight cut. I'm on him small at +115.

[koscheckbaby]

Why isn't anyone pounding nate mardquate?

Story's boring wrestling style may be able to make this fight a tight stalemate, leaning in Story's direction. That's my opinion. If Story wants to actually fight and not just clinch and try for takedowns all fight long, like he did with Alves, I definitely feel the value is on Nate. But I don't trust Story