Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Chairib]

Those are all factors to consider. For me, I'm afraid of the size difference. Cain has handled big guys before, but he was signifcantly more skilled than them. Did you see the post fight when cain came in the ring? Jds towered over him... And cain was wearing shoes too!!!

Size would be an issue if JDS was a wrestler.

[Vaughany]

I've only ever played straight parlays. How does this one work? You only have to hit 4 out of 6? How is the pay calculated? What if you hit 5? Or 6? Same payout?

I'd only get the full payout if all six hit. It's a bit complicated, but by having four out of six-folds its like hedging your parlay so I'm guaranteed some kind of return as long as four hit (but the amount to be won if all six did hit would be less than if you just did a straight six out of six parlay). If you didn't get six out of six then the amount returned depends on what the odds were on each of the four that hit, or five that hit. So say you had 6 lines and two were 6/1 and 4/1 odds, and the other four were all 1/6 odds and only the four at 1/6 were successful then you'd get a very small amount in return (less than your total stake). But if the two 6/1 and 4/1 odds hit and two of the 1/6 odds failed then u'd probably get more than your total stake back. So it's only worth doing this kind of parlay if your including a couple lines at positive odds, like with this one I've got Bader by decision at +162.5, and Wiman by decision at +220 which really help boost the odds and I still have a good chance of hitting.

[Hannibal]

Charib: size is an issue because he has a considerable reach advantage. Along with that, longer legs help him to move in and out faster; one step of jds goes further than one step of cain. As well, I believe size of frame plays a role in take down defense. Most guys with long limbs are easy to take down, because they lack the same kind of body control over their longer frame. But for athletic guys with great hips that also possess a long frame, they can use their leverage to negate offensive wrestling, especially with a great sprawl. (Guys that possess this trait are rare) The sprawl is especially effective for guys that can use leverage, even against physcially stronger opponents. That's why I believe singles would be more effective than douvles against jds.

[sirchadwick1]

Hannibal, JDS and Cain both have a 77" reach. JDS is just taller and has the naturally larger frame.

[Vaughany]

Anybody based in California??? I'm headin to San Fran, LA and Vegas from Sat for a couple weeks, where are the places to be!?

[Hannibal]

Height plays into reach!!
Its not just wingspan. His body can lean further in or out.
Its also easier to punch down vs punching up.

[Hannibal]

Thanks for the reply vaughany!

I really like bader by dec at that price. I think this is the most likely outcome.
For someone with no effective skills in this era of mma, he is still very durable and tough to finish.

Bader fades fast, and I've never been old on his finishing ability. Tito is unlikely to be stopped by a single shot, and that bader's MO.
Plus, refs usually let the big names go as long as possbile to avoid backlash from controversial decisions.

[illmatick]

Anybody based in California??? I'm headin to San Fran, LA and Vegas from Sat for a couple weeks, where are the places to be!?

Swing through Texas if you like big titties and 9 inch rails.

We can also set up a few sparring sessions, I still need to test that feeble chin.

[Chairib]

Anybody based in California??? I'm headin to San Fran, LA and Vegas from Sat for a couple weeks, where are the places to be!?

How much money you want to spend?

[Chairib]

Swing through Texas if you like big titties and 9 inch rails.

We can also set up a few sparring sessions, I still need to test that feeble chin.

You live in Texas? I don't think I ever knew that.

[illmatick]

haha, yeah Austin Texas. Straight college town

Good city once you get past all the frat boys and hipsters. Heat is brutal right now though. It ruined my beautiful tomato garden. Spent 5 hours plowing that shit.

[Ladle]

haha, yeah Austin Texas. Straight college town

Good city once you get past all the frat boys and hipsters. Heat is brutal right now though. It ruined my beautiful tomato garden. Spent 5 hours plowing that shit.

Now every time I read one of your posts, I'm going to envisage a dude slaving over a tomato garden with a plow. Just thought I'd let you know.

Also, two of my friends have been to Austin, and they both thought it was absolutely awesome.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Adding UFC 132 plays:


6.1 units on Dong-Hyun Kim by decision at +170 to win 10.4 units;

Potentially looking to add more to this and hedge with Condit straight-up at Evens or better.


6.1 units on Dominick Cruz by decision at +170 to win 10.4 units.

Again, will be adding more and hedging with Faber at +120.

These are nice, very likely they will hit. How much do you like cruz to beat faberr in a str8 play? I was surprised the odds are relatively even between these two... Personally, I think cruz is a steal at near even odds, and I think he will soundly beat faber. Who you think wins in general and how confident are you in that pick?

Also, I know I sound like a 'noob' but what is "hedged"????????? Does this mean you are supplementing a play as like a 'fail safe' per se. So if you are putting these units on Kim by decision, would a hedge with a condit str8 bet mean you are protecting yourself to ensure you don't lose money? Sorry if I don't make sense, just curious what hedge means because I see it a lot on here. I have yet to take my stab at prop bets so perhaps it only has something to do with those plays.

Thanks V, cheers dude.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Anybody based in California??? I'm headin to San Fran, LA and Vegas from Sat for a couple weeks, where are the places to be!?

I'm in the OC/Huntington beach area V, about 40 minutes south of LA.

There is lots to do in Cali man. Vegas is a given, you can be anywhere there and have a blast! Where you staying in Vegas?

San Fran there is countless stuff to do. Obviously go party in the city and cruise around the wharf and downtown. Lots of great grub and whatnot, and the women are some of the coolest and down to earth in Cali

What exactly are you looking to do when down here? You talking about where to watch fights? Where to train? Where to party? Outdoor stuff / activities? food?

Holler at me and hopefully I can throw you some ideas. Either way you're gonna love Cali! your first time?

[poopoo333]

Who do you like in Lytle/Hardy?

[Vaughany]

[ufcmma36]

Cali livin right here! Bomb herb!!!!!lol

[Vaughany]

Adding:

1 unit on Griggs at -170 to win 0.588 units.

[koscheckbaby]

Really liking Cormier, even with the juice. Jeff Monson and his short stubbly arms aren't going to takedown Daniel Cormier and they aren't outstriking him. I feel like Monson is getting too much credit. I read people giving him a chance or calling him by sub. Cormier has an immeasurable wrestling advantage and very likely in the standup too

[Ladle]

Really liking Cormier, even with the juice. Jeff Monson and his short stubbly arms aren't going to takedown Daniel Cormier and they aren't outstriking him. I feel like Monson is getting too much credit. I read people giving him a chance or calling him by sub. Cormier has an immeasurable wrestling advantage and very likely in the standup too

As long as Cormier knows how to defend a north-south choke, he isn't getting submitted. Monson is a 40-year-old who is perpetually fighting injured and barely mobile outside of the cage.

In spite of the juice, I actually think Cormier is a good bet too.

[Vaughany]

Yeah I'll probly be using Cormier in a parlay or two.

[Vaughany]

Funny Pat Barry gettin a telling off from his madre...

http://ironforgesiron.com/2011/06/video-who-does-pat-barry-answer-too-his-mama-thats-who/

[snake11eyes]

Adding:

1 unit on Griggs at -170 to win 0.588 units.

Griggs down to -120 now.

[v1y]

hmm interesting. yeah i'm really not sure what to think of griggs/oldereem.

[Chairib]

haha, yeah Austin Texas. Straight college town

Good city once you get past all the frat boys and hipsters. Heat is brutal right now though. It ruined my beautiful tomato garden. Spent 5 hours plowing that shit.

I spend most of my time between Portland and Seattle now. I keep hearing Austin and Portland have the same kind of vibe, so I've been wanting to head down there and check it out for myself. I had a couple of buddies go down there for SXSW a couple of years ago and they had a great time.

[Vaughany]

Griggs down to -120 now.

Yeah glad I only put a small amount on otherwise I'd be pissed! I thought he'd go up to -200 if anything but guess the "OVEREEM" name is too much to resist for most punters!

[Vaughany]

Adding:

1 unit on Griggs at -170 to win 0.588 units.

Adding:

1.49 units on Griggs at -120 to win 1.241 units.

[rocky mattioli]

Hannibal, JDS and Cain both have a 77" reach. JDS is just taller and has the naturally larger frame.

i read this,too...and i don`t buy it for a second...if jds doesn`t have a reach advantage,then i kidnapped the lindbergh baby....

[Straight Cash]

I kinda like Griggs in this spot as well

[Vaughany]

These are nice, very likely they will hit. How much do you like cruz to beat faberr in a str8 play? I was surprised the odds are relatively even between these two... Personally, I think cruz is a steal at near even odds, and I think he will soundly beat faber. Who you think wins in general and how confident are you in that pick?

Also, I know I sound like a 'noob' but what is "hedged"????????? Does this mean you are supplementing a play as like a 'fail safe' per se. So if you are putting these units on Kim by decision, would a hedge with a condit str8 bet mean you are protecting yourself to ensure you don't lose money? Sorry if I don't make sense, just curious what hedge means because I see it a lot on here. I have yet to take my stab at prop bets so perhaps it only has something to do with those plays.

Thanks V, cheers dude.

I like Cruz a lot, but I'm a lot more confident of him winning by decision than I am of sub or TKO. If he was at better than evens I'd probly play him straight up but when by decision is available at +170 compared to straight up at -120 I'll happily take my chances that he won't finish Faber.

Regarding "hedged" you're pretty much spot on. If I think in a match-up one fighter only has one main route to victory then I will either play that prop straight-up or play it and hedge with the opponent to win. So take the Pettis vs Guida fight for instance, both Ladle and I thought Pettis had more ways to win the fight than Guida who we thought only had one route to victory (decision) so played Pettis straight-up and hedged it with Guida by decision as we realised that even know we liked Pettis to win there was always a good chance of Guida taking a decision (which quite evidently turned out to be a good decision)! So with these Cruz by decision and Stungun by decision plays I need to decide whether to leave them as they are or whether to take the safer option of hedging Cruz by dec with Faber straight up at +110, or/and hedging Stung Gun by decision with Condit straight up at Evens/+110 or better.

[Ladle]

i read this,too...and i don`t buy it for a second...if jds doesn`t have a reach advantage,then i kidnapped the lindbergh baby....

I tried to give you points for this but it wouldn't let me.

[Vaughany]

Who do you like in Lytle/Hardy?

Tough to call, guess u have to assume that they are gonna stand and bang which helps Hardy a bit as Lytle has better ground game. Lytle was contemplating retirement recently due to his dodgy knees. Hardy might be slightly quicker to the punch, I'm considering a play on Hardy by decision. I expect fight to go distance though.

[Vaughany]

i read this,too...and i don`t buy it for a second...if jds doesn`t have a reach advantage,then i kidnapped the lindbergh baby....

haha So you're Hauptmann resurrected!

[rocky mattioli]

haha So you're Hauptmann resurrected!

...

[Vaughany]

...

Quite funny that you brought that up, I was looking at this site a few months ago! http://www.charlesalindberghjr.com/rcm/reliable.html