Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Beelzebubzy]

+1 on Wonderboy - I think this is a complete mismatch skill wise. As long as Stiggen doesnt lay and pray, I do not think he will be able to survive all three rounds
I am playing Ellenberger small. Diegos Leonard Garcia-esque air punching and chin always makes me worry about betting against him, but I think Jake is going to be too big and strong. Plus, Guida was able to take Sanchez down so I believe Jakes double leg will do the same.

[Vaughany]

"Dont take anything for granted when your fighting me. If you assume you have an edge here or that you're gonna dominate me there, you know you better think again man...Cause Im gonna F**K YOU UP!!!" - Carlos Condit

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

Adding:


4.9 units on Cope by Decision at +650 to win 31.85 units;

hedged with:

15 units on Matt Brown at -300 to win 5 units.

[Vitooch]

GL V, I'm on Brown but I like the hedge.

No chance Cope finishes Brown!

[Mr.Kitty]

Hey V, do you intend to let all you plays including Condit ride?

I am beginning to like Condit more and more but looking at Diaz by decision at +290 hedged with Condit straight up at +180.

[Vitooch]

If you don't mind me chiming in, I think Condit by TKO is better value than Condit SU. Condit is not submitting Diaz and if this fight goes to the later rounds Diaz has the cardio advantage.

[Mr.Kitty]

If you don't mind me chiming in, I think Condit by TKO is better value than Condit SU. Condit is not submitting Diaz and if this fight goes to the later rounds Diaz has the cardio advantage.

Oh no not at all. I just think Condit could win a decision a small portion of the time so I feel more comfortable to bet him str8 up then soly rely on him getting the (T)KO. Both guys are super resilient which makes me hesitant to play Condit by (T)KO. I see you point tho, Diaz cardio is no joke! We know that Condit has a more diverse skillset standing with kicks, knees and elbows but the question is how effective he will be if hes constantly forced to move backwards. More unlikely things has happened then Condit winning a decision in this situation. Evangelista found success with legkicks against Diaz and we saw Cerrone have success against Nate when he did throw kicks. Condit has fought better competition and Diaz won´t have the reach advantage either (74 " against Condits 76").

It will be a very interesting fight no matter the outcome, love watching both guys fight.

[Vaughany]

GL V, I'm on Brown but I like the hedge.

No chance Cope finishes Brown!

I've got Brown in a couple of parlays and Brown inside in a parlay so this is just a back-up

[Vaughany]

Hey V, do you intend to let all you plays including Condit ride?

I am beginning to like Condit more and more but looking at Diaz by decision at +290 hedged with Condit straight up at +180.

Im semi-letting it ride! At the moment I'm not gonna arb out with Diaz straight up. I'm gonna have Fight starts Round 2 and starts Round 3 in a few parlays as back up so as long as Diaz doesn't win round 1 I'll be okay. If none of those parlays are still alive going in to the fight then I will have to consider arbing with Diaz straight up.

[Vaughany]

Last Primetime...amazing episode... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7x2IhB9xaMs

Great moment when woman asks Diaz for his Superbowl pick and he's like "No"! "Who playin"!

[Vaughany]

Added:


11.5 units on Figueroa at -115 to win 10 units.


Still not fully sold on Bruce Leroy. He looked a lot better against Escovedo, considerably more composed, however I think Cole's horrible performance contributed to this. Cole had no idea how to throw a combination or time a punch and was hopeless with the couple half-hearted take-down attempts he had. Like Figueroa up to -125 in this one. Caceres will probably have slight size and cardio advantage, and will definitely be quicker and could take a decision just by landing more kicks and throwing flashy stuff tht wows the judges. Figueroa was very slow and wild in the McDonald fight but you have to take into account the very short notice tht he came in on for tht one. Against Reinhardt he looked in a lot better shape and was more controlled and methodological with his striking. Although Bruce Leroy is quick and bounces around a lot, I still have reservations about his defence - he doesn't have any head-movement, leaves his chin out there, and there are opportunities to exploit his flashy striking. I think Figueroa has the aggressiveness and power to exploit these deficiencies and either finish Leroy in the second half of the fight or at least do enough to get the decision. Depending on whether Sportbet offer more props I may add fight goes distance in a parlay or Caceres by decision as back up.

Hedging with:


3.326 units on Caceres by Decision at +310 to win 10.311 units;

0.374 units on Caceres by Decision at +350 to win 1.309 units.


Will make 6.3 units if Figueroa wins, 0.12 units if Caceres wins by decision, or will lose 15.2 units if Caceres wins inside the distance.

[PunisherIND]

Hey V, do you intend to let all you plays including Condit ride?

I am beginning to like Condit more and more but looking at Diaz by decision at +290 hedged with Condit straight up at +180.

hahaha "to the lost"... love it. great show

[PunisherIND]

V, did you end up making a play on Condit/Diaz FOTN?? just curious what numbers you have seen. even though i wasnt thrilled with the line, i made a small play at +105. i see its at -160 on 5D now.

[Mr.Kitty]

Im semi-letting it ride! At the moment I'm not gonna arb out with Diaz straight up. I'm gonna have Fight starts Round 2 and starts Round 3 in a few parlays as back up so as long as Diaz doesn't win round 1 I'll be okay. If none of those parlays are still alive going in to the fight then I will have to consider arbing with Diaz straight up.

Alright, living on the edge, I like it! Best of luck tonight and lets hope Condit pulls the upset!

hahaha "to the lost"... love it. great show

Great indeed!

[NunyaBidness]

V, did you end up making a play on Condit/Diaz FOTN?? just curious what numbers you have seen. even though i wasnt thrilled with the line, i made a small play at +105. i see its at -160 on 5D now.

I got it at +175, which I think was the 5d opener. I think bookmaker opened at +150. At -160, I think I would have to play the other side though.

[PunisherIND]

I got it at +175, which I think was the 5d opener. I think bookmaker opened at +150. At -160, I think I would have to play the other side though.

damn, you had to act quick to get that line.

[omalley21]

I got +175, +140 on Diaz FOTN at 5dimes, was hoping for higher.. Saw it at +175 briefly on bookmaker too.

[Vaughany]

V, did you end up making a play on Condit/Diaz FOTN?? just curious what numbers you have seen. even though i wasnt thrilled with the line, i made a small play at +105. i see its at -160 on 5D now.

I have but at the moment it's risk free as I got Not FOTN on Sportbet at +120 and +105 and got FOTN at +125, and a small amount (due to limits) on it at +187.5 and +150. So at moment I'll make 7.429 units profit if it is FOTN or money back if not. Been debating all day whether to go bigger although that was before I found tht skybet have now limited these type of props as well, otherwise I'd of probably put at least 20 units on it straight up at +150 without hedging. There are a lot of other fights tht should be entertaining, but just find it hard to imagine this not being at least a 3 to 5 round war and it getting the nod. May add another 10 units or whatever Im allowed to if one of the other Euro books offers it

[Vaughany]

Highest I've seen it was +190 on Sportingbet which I foolishly didnt take as I thought other sites would release soon after and perhaps have it at +200

[PunisherIND]

Highest I've seen it was +190 on Sportingbet which I foolishly didnt take as I thought other sites would release soon after and perhaps have it at +200

i was hoping for +200 also. best i saw was +125 on 5D and while i was hesitating it moved to +115, then +105. so i grabbed it.

GL hope we all cash.

[CTM]

FOTN was +175 on 5dimes?? God dammit. I was glued to that site for the opener, best I saw was +130. With bookmaker opening at +150 or whatever and being quickly bet down to +115, why would 5d go for 175?

Ah well, I grabbed +130 and +115. Also betting condit straight up, gotta think the only way this doesn't win fotn is an early condit win.

[DigBick86]

nice and much appriciated work as usual will tail you on Pierce for 2X will probably put the same or more on condit at least one is gonna upset

[Vaughany]

nice and much appriciated work as usual will tail you on Pierce for 2X will probably put the same or more on condit at least one is gonna upset

Cheers bro

Although I'm not on Pierce!? I think he has a decent chance but I expect Koscheck to take a decision

[more_betterness]

No event summary Vaughany?

[Vaughany]

Summary of UFC 143 plays:


Parlay: 0.324 units on Woodley/Mein Over 2.5 Rounds, Evans (-140), Condit (+145), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 4.107 units;


Parlay: 6.362 units on Maia/Weidman to Start Round 2 (-495), Sonnen/Bisping to Start Round 2 (-488), & Condit (+155) to win 17.135 units.


Parlay: 6.362 units on Evans/Davis to Start Round 2 (-371), & Condit (+155) to win 14.234 units.


Parlay: 1.62 units on Sonnen (-333.33), Nick Diaz (-150), & Ben Henderson (+110) to win 5.751 units;


6.378 units on Diaz/Condit to Go the Distance at +200 to win 12.756 units;


0.981 units on Diaz by Submission or Points to win 1.275 units;


0.083 units on Nelson KOTN at +2000 to win 1.66 units;

0.751 units on Nelson by TKO/KO or Points at +170 to win 1.277 units;


Parlay (double): 6.316 units on Koscheck/Pierce to Not go the Distance at +170 to win 10.737 units.

1.398 units on Koscheck/Pierce to Go the Distance at -110 to win 1.271 units;

1.732 units on Koscheck/Pierce to Go the Distance at -137.5 to win 1.26 units;

2.045 units on Koscheck/Pierce to Go Over 2.5 Rounds at -162.5 to win 1.258 units;

5 units on Koscheck by Decision at +150 to win 7.5 units;


2.036 units on Barao/Jorgensen to Go Over 2.5 Rnds at -162.5 to win 1.253 units;

1.724 units on Barao/Jorgensen to Go the Distance at -137.5 to win 1.254 units;

0.041 units on Jorgensen KOTN at +5000 to win 2.05 units;


Parlay: 6.317 units on Brown (-300), Poirier (-400), & Not Diaz Inside the Distance (-160) to win 10.791 units;

***If Poirier and Brown are successful I'll probably arb with Diaz inside***


Parlay (double) : 3.75 units on Riddle (-333.33), & Poirier (-400) to win 2.344 units;


Parlay (double): 6.25 units on Poirier (-400), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 8.45 units;


Parlay (double): 10 units on Thompson (-250), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 9.6 units.


Parlay (double): 6.315 units on Matt Brown (-300) & Nelson/Werdum to Go the Distance (+160) to win 15.58 units;


Parlay (double): 0.947 units on Koscheck (-220) & Condit by Decision (+550) to win 8.009 units.


Parlay: 3.169 units on Brown Inside the Distance (-145), Not Caceres Inside the Distance (-352), Natal/Kuiper Over 1.5 Rounds (-120), Heman/Starks Over 1.5 Rounds (-165), Not Jorgensen by Submission (-3750), Not Pierce by Submission (-3750), Not Nelson by Submission (-2090), & Diaz/Condit Starts Round 2 (-480) to win 23.605 units;


Parlay: 0.634 units on Thompson/Stittgen Over 1.5 Rounds (+155), Brown/Cope Over 1.5 Rounds (-150), Koscheck/Pierce Starts Round 2 (-545), & Diaz/Condit Starts Round 2 (-480) to win 3.218 units;


Parlay: 6.338 units on Not Cope Inside the Distance (-650), Barao/Jorgensen Starts Round 2 (-540), Nelson/Werdum Starts Round 2 (-380), & Diaz/Condit Starts Round 2 (-480) to win 6.891 units;


4.9 units on Cope by Decision at +650 to win 31.85 units;

hedged with:

15 units on Matt Brown at -300 to win 5 units;


11.5 units on Figueroa at -115 to win 10 units;

hedged with:

3.326 units on Caceres by Decision at +310 to win 10.311 units;

0.374 units on Caceres by Decision at +350 to win 1.309 units.


0.5 units on Poirier SOTN at +1000 to win 5 units;

0.332 units Poirier by Submission at +400 to win 1.328 units;


0.374 units on Thompson by TKO/KO at +350 to win 1.309 units.

[Vaughany]

Summary of UFC 143 plays:


Parlay: 0.324 units on Woodley/Mein Over 2.5 Rounds, Evans (-140), Condit (+145), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 4.107 units;


Parlay: 6.362 units on Maia/Weidman to Start Round 2 (-495), Sonnen/Bisping to Start Round 2 (-488), & Condit (+155) to win 17.135 units.


Parlay: 6.362 units on Evans/Davis to Start Round 2 (-371), & Condit (+155) to win 14.234 units.


Parlay: 1.62 units on Sonnen (-333.33), Nick Diaz (-150), & Ben Henderson (+110) to win 5.751 units;


6.378 units on Diaz/Condit to Go the Distance at +200 to win 12.756 units;


0.981 units on Diaz by Submission or Points to win 1.275 units;


0.083 units on Nelson KOTN at +2000 to win 1.66 units;

0.751 units on Nelson by TKO/KO or Points at +170 to win 1.277 units;


Parlay (double): 6.316 units on Koscheck/Pierce to Not go the Distance at +170 to win 10.737 units.

1.398 units on Koscheck/Pierce to Go the Distance at -110 to win 1.271 units;

1.732 units on Koscheck/Pierce to Go the Distance at -137.5 to win 1.26 units;

2.045 units on Koscheck/Pierce to Go Over 2.5 Rounds at -162.5 to win 1.258 units;

5 units on Koscheck by Decision at +150 to win 7.5 units;


2.036 units on Barao/Jorgensen to Go Over 2.5 Rnds at -162.5 to win 1.253 units;

1.724 units on Barao/Jorgensen to Go the Distance at -137.5 to win 1.254 units;

0.041 units on Jorgensen KOTN at +5000 to win 2.05 units;


Parlay: 6.317 units on Brown (-300), Poirier (-400), & Not Diaz Inside the Distance (-160) to win 10.791 units;

***If Poirier and Brown are successful I'll probably arb with Diaz inside***


Parlay (double) : 3.75 units on Riddle (-333.33), & Poirier (-400) to win 2.344 units;


Parlay (double): 6.25 units on Poirier (-400), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 8.45 units;


Parlay (double): 10 units on Thompson (-250), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 9.6 units.


Parlay (double): 6.315 units on Matt Brown (-300) & Nelson/Werdum to Go the Distance (+160) to win 15.58 units;


Parlay (double): 0.947 units on Koscheck (-220) & Condit by Decision (+550) to win 8.009 units.


Parlay: 3.169 units on Brown Inside the Distance (-145), Not Caceres Inside the Distance (-352), Natal/Kuiper Over 1.5 Rounds (-120), Heman/Starks Over 1.5 Rounds (-165), Not Jorgensen by Submission (-3750), Not Pierce by Submission (-3750), Not Nelson by Submission (-2090), & Diaz/Condit Starts Round 2 (-480) to win 23.605 units;


Parlay: 0.634 units on Thompson/Stittgen Over 1.5 Rounds (+155), Brown/Cope Over 1.5 Rounds (-150), Koscheck/Pierce Starts Round 2 (-545), & Diaz/Condit Starts Round 2 (-480) to win 3.218 units;


Parlay: 6.338 units on Not Cope Inside the Distance (-650), Barao/Jorgensen Starts Round 2 (-540), Nelson/Werdum Starts Round 2 (-380), & Diaz/Condit Starts Round 2 (-480) to win 6.891 units;


4.9 units on Cope by Decision at +650 to win 31.85 units;

hedged with:

15 units on Matt Brown at -300 to win 5 units;


11.5 units on Figueroa at -115 to win 10 units;

hedged with:

3.326 units on Caceres by Decision at +310 to win 10.311 units;

0.374 units on Caceres by Decision at +350 to win 1.309 units.


0.5 units on Poirier SOTN at +1000 to win 5 units;

0.332 units Poirier by Submission at +400 to win 1.328 units;


0.374 units on Thompson by TKO/KO at +350 to win 1.309 units.

Also will make risk-free 7.8 units profit if Diaz wins by decision; risk-free 7.429 units profit if Diaz/Condit is FOTN; and risk-free 3.25 units profit if Big Country wins.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNF14LAFDg8

[Vaughany]

Summary of UFC 143 plays:


Parlay: 0.324 units on Woodley/Mein Over 2.5 Rounds, Evans (-140), Condit (+145), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 4.107 units;


Parlay: 6.362 units on Maia/Weidman to Start Round 2 (-495), Sonnen/Bisping to Start Round 2 (-488), & Condit (+155) to win 17.135 units.


Parlay: 6.362 units on Evans/Davis to Start Round 2 (-371), & Condit (+155) to win 14.234 units.


Parlay: 1.62 units on Sonnen (-333.33), Nick Diaz (-150), & Ben Henderson (+110) to win 5.751 units;


6.378 units on Diaz/Condit to Go the Distance at +200 to win 12.756 units;


0.981 units on Diaz by Submission or Points to win 1.275 units;


0.083 units on Nelson KOTN at +2000 to win 1.66 units;

0.751 units on Nelson by TKO/KO or Points at +170 to win 1.277 units;


Parlay (double): 6.316 units on Koscheck/Pierce to Not go the Distance at +170 to win 10.737 units.

1.398 units on Koscheck/Pierce to Go the Distance at -110 to win 1.271 units;

1.732 units on Koscheck/Pierce to Go the Distance at -137.5 to win 1.26 units;

2.045 units on Koscheck/Pierce to Go Over 2.5 Rounds at -162.5 to win 1.258 units;

5 units on Koscheck by Decision at +150 to win 7.5 units;


2.036 units on Barao/Jorgensen to Go Over 2.5 Rnds at -162.5 to win 1.253 units;

1.724 units on Barao/Jorgensen to Go the Distance at -137.5 to win 1.254 units;

0.041 units on Jorgensen KOTN at +5000 to win 2.05 units;


Parlay: 6.317 units on Brown (-300), Poirier (-400), & Not Diaz Inside the Distance (-160) to win 10.791 units;

***If Poirier and Brown are successful I'll probably arb with Diaz inside***


Parlay (double) : 3.75 units on Riddle (-333.33), & Poirier (-400) to win 2.344 units;


Parlay (double): 6.25 units on Poirier (-400), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 8.45 units;


Parlay (double): 10 units on Thompson (-250), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 9.6 units.


Parlay (double): 6.315 units on Matt Brown (-300) & Nelson/Werdum to Go the Distance (+160) to win 15.58 units;


Parlay (double): 0.947 units on Koscheck (-220) & Condit by Decision (+550) to win 8.009 units.


Parlay: 3.169 units on Brown Inside the Distance (-145), Not Caceres Inside the Distance (-352), Natal/Kuiper Over 1.5 Rounds (-120), Heman/Starks Over 1.5 Rounds (-165), Not Jorgensen by Submission (-3750), Not Pierce by Submission (-3750), Not Nelson by Submission (-2090), & Diaz/Condit Starts Round 2 (-480) to win 23.605 units;


Parlay: 0.634 units on Thompson/Stittgen Over 1.5 Rounds (+155), Brown/Cope Over 1.5 Rounds (-150), Koscheck/Pierce Starts Round 2 (-545), & Diaz/Condit Starts Round 2 (-480) to win 3.218 units;


Parlay: 6.338 units on Not Cope Inside the Distance (-650), Barao/Jorgensen Starts Round 2 (-540), Nelson/Werdum Starts Round 2 (-380), & Diaz/Condit Starts Round 2 (-480) to win 6.891 units;


4.9 units on Cope by Decision at +650 to win 31.85 units;

hedged with:

15 units on Matt Brown at -300 to win 5 units;


11.5 units on Figueroa at -115 to win 10 units;

hedged with:

3.326 units on Caceres by Decision at +310 to win 10.311 units;

0.374 units on Caceres by Decision at +350 to win 1.309 units.


0.5 units on Poirier SOTN at +1000 to win 5 units;

0.332 units Poirier by Submission at +400 to win 1.328 units;


0.374 units on Thompson by TKO/KO at +350 to win 1.309 units.

Adding:


10 units on Diaz/Condit FOTN at +125 to win 12.5 units;

0.417 units on Caceres/Figueroa FOTN at +1200 to win 5.004 units.

[Vaughany]

Last thoughts on Diaz vs Condit:


Overall I think the value is definitely with Condit at current odds of +160 to +185.


Key reasons why you might favour Condit:

- Diaz doesnt have the reach advantage that he's enjoyed in past fights which is clearly quite integral to his style of fighting;

- Condit's resilience. I'm quite surprised that so many expect Diaz to finish Condit inside the distance. It's definitely possible, but I don't think the chances of it happening warrant the +120 to +175 range odds that I've seen Diaz Inside Distance at on 5dimes/Sportbet. The fact that it's gone from +120 to +175 during the week shows that majority have taken Diaz by decision as this has fallen from +250 range to current +185. Condit has one of the best chins in the business, his ability to recover and remain composed after being dropped is second to none (see Ellenberger fight). Obviously you can only rely on ur chin for so long and the fact tht fighters have shown tht they have a great chin isnt necesarily a good thing as it means they are getting hit! Nonetheless, Diaz's style is to wear down his opponents with cumulative damage rather than one-punch KO damage, and relies on his opponents quitting or getting exhausted from the barrage of punches to the face and body and overall pace tht Nick sets. Unlike the likes of Cyborg, BJ and Semtex, Condit wont quit or gas out early;

- Condit learning from Cerrone/Nate? Condit has the advantage of having seen what NOT to do against a Diaz by having witnessed the Cerrone fight only recently against Nate. A Condit backer would like to think that he and Jackson have sat down and recognised that you can't get caught up in a brawl with the Diaz's - there were many references to this in the Primetime and Countdown show so I personally am very confident tht Condit is not going to make similar mistakes to Cerrone. The one thing Cerrone did right for intermittent periods of the fight was use leg kicks. As many have referred to, Condit has a wide variety of strikes, and can certainly take advantage of Diaz's lack of footwork by attacking Diaz's lead leg and working angles. Another thing that Condit will hopefully learn from Cerrone's poor judgement is that you can't be scared of getting in to Diaz's guard. I do believe tht part of the reason Cerrone didnt follow Nate to the ground after he fell from the leg-kicks in the second round was due to him getting caught up in the brawling mentality. As already mentioned, I dont think Condit will make tht mental mistake of getting caught up in a "face-punching" competition so will happily go to the ground if necessary. I also think he wont be scared of going to the ground either and will be confident enough in his abilities to hang with Diaz. Getting the odd trip takedown and having some top control could make a massive difference as a) it could be looked on favourably by the judges; and b) would be the best opportunity to cut Diaz open with elbows...which again would have advantages in both in that the judges will see it as damage, could lead to a stoppage, and can effect Diaz's sight. Taking advantage of Diaz's easily cuttable skin is something tht Condit may well look to exploit with elbows;

One possible variable that might effect Condit is the fact that he could well be overtrained for this fight. Condit has been in camps for several fights tht have changed over past 6 months or so. This could effect his ability to peak at the right time and thus adversely effect his usually impeccable cardio and power. Werdum has said that he was over-trained going in to the Overeem fight due to fights getting cancelled and not getting a break from training. Also, Carlos hasn't been past round one since June 2010.

[Jordan23]

I'm looking forward to the fights tonight. Good luck with your picks. My only play for tonight is going big on Werdum. Werdum is my biggest play of 2012 so far.

[BIGDAY]

GL tonight. I personally think Condit/Diaz should be around EV.

I think 2-3 dogs hit in the main card tonight.

[Beelzebubzy]

GL tonight man.

[bjpenn85]

V, do you have any strong opinions on the herman vs strufe fight? Initially i liked herman, but i am now a bit insecure. On one side you got struve that is always prone to get koed, but you can make a case for herman as one of the most sloppy and easiest target to hit in the ufc as well. Moreover, herman has good wrestling, but his cockiness towards bjj, stating that bjjj doesnt work, together with bad cardio can lead to a submission victory for struve. Although i think that herman can apply som heavy damage in struves gard and that this may his natural path to victory. But is he stupid enough to stand and trade, or to get caught?

[Vaughany]

I'm looking forward to the fights tonight. Good luck with your picks. My only play for tonight is going big on Werdum. Werdum is my biggest play of 2012 so far.

GL tonight. I personally think Condit/Diaz should be around EV.

I think 2-3 dogs hit in the main card tonight.

GL tonight man.

BOL guys

[Beelzebubzy]

V, at what point would you throw a small play on Nelson. He is at +155 on Bmaker