Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Beelzebubzy]

yeah Curran should take it but I'd always be concerned betting on a big favourite against an elite wrestler! He could grind it out and get a dodgy decision or something

Davis/Evans?

Teasing, but thanks

[Vaughany]

Davis/Evans?

Teasing, but thanks

ha Evans wrestling and athleticism is on whole different level to Curran! But yeah Davis could still steal this! U never know

[Vaughany]

Kalikas has released Jones as -625 favourite, Evans at +425. Anderson -235, Sonnen +175

[illmatick]

O nice. Do you remember what the original price was for Rashad vs. Jones? Wasn't it under -500?

[Vaughany]

O nice. Do you remember what the original price was for Rashad vs. Jones? Wasn't it under -500?

Yeah pretty sure it was. I remember Ladbrokes had Rashad at +400 or something similar to what Nick has released it as, but seem to remember it Evans being +300 on BM before or one of the others tht open

[gabe]

I told Rashad backers he was a steal at -140 then again at -160 --- my gut wouldn't let me go against Philip.

[ddream1]

V, is it just me or did rashad look like he would have no chance in hell vs. jones.... davis was no threat anywhere and delivered no angles or strikes or clinches yet rashad seemed medicore in it all. he didn't appear that fast or willing to let the bombs and high kicks go. the pocket flurries were useless and im pretty confident jones will pack a big punch and most important leg kicks. i think the -625 is bang on

[Digo]

Just giving a look at your summary, i think it was a great night bro =) Gratz!

[eligibletackle]

hey v, long time first time -

why the Condit love? Would you make bets on him if he was EV ?

Feel real good about Nick in this one, mainly b/c everything Condit brings to the table that most dont (the intangibles, budo spirit, killer instinct, crafty ways to find Ws, seems be a better fighter once it turns into a "fight"), Nick is in the minority that has them all as well. Five rounds bodes in Nick's favor too IMO, not so much "but he does triathlons" but he's just f'ing resilient and his MO of demoralizing people with his hands in that manner can't be dismissed as anything less than effective beyond belief since Daley and BJ are two of his most recent victims. Looks like a wrestler could exploit his holes (hence why SF never matched him up vs Hieron), but it's 5 rounds, Condit is not a LnP guy, I've ruled that out when sizing this one up (although his ability to adapt to a fight w/ Jackson is probably his best advantage, Diaz is a "stubborn" fighter for lack of a better phrase).

Thanks, looks like you did good tonight but kind of hope that doesn't happen next week for the sake of my account!

- ET

[Beelzebubzy]

Kalikas has released Jones as -625 favourite, Evans at +425. Anderson -235, Sonnen +175

Damn thought we would get a better line on Jones after a second Rashad win.
Either Sonnen is slowing down/no more roids or Bisping is severely undderrated

[caveira]

Damn thought we would get a better line on Jones after a second Rashad win. Either Sonnen is slowing down/no more roids or Bisping is severely undderrated

Will be very hard (to not say impossible) to bet Jones at -500 or better if he stays in LHW.

[gabe]

-450 against machida and -625 against evans. dang.

[ddream1]

Damn thought we would get a better line on Jones after a second Rashad win.
Either Sonnen is slowing down/no more roids or Bisping is severely undderrated

i think one thing was clear, had bisping fought maia he would've killed him. bisping i feel is really good, his lack of power is why he will always just miss the bigtime. he fought perfectly vs. sonnen, i guess now he gets munoz and that should be fun, atleast with munoz bisping will have to fear some more meaningful striking and power.

[Beelzebubzy]

i think one thing was clear, had bisping fought maia he would've killed him. bisping i feel is really good, his lack of power is why he will always just miss the bigtime. he fought perfectly vs. sonnen, i guess now he gets munoz and that should be fun, atleast with munoz bisping will have to fear some more meaningful striking and power.

Bisping vs Maia makes sense now since they are both coming off a loss
Munoz vs Weidman

[Digo]

-450 against machida and -625 against evans. dang.

I Think many people believed in that talk about "Machida has the perfect style to beat Jones".

[ddream1]

Bisping vs Maia makes sense now since they are both coming off a loss
Munoz vs Weidman

true tha would make sense i was more thinking bisping has a moral win, and with many thinking he actually won that 1st round, but i think ur right. weidman looks good, that would be a very very quick jump. i think after how poorly davis did, maybe ufc waits a bit with weidman, either way i like them all

[JAKEPEAVY21]

any thoughts on Werdum vs Nelson? At first glance, I like Werdum.

[Beelzebubzy]

If he can protect his chin for round 1 I think his chances improve greatly

[PunisherIND]

i think one thing was clear, had bisping fought maia he would've killed him. bisping i feel is really good, his lack of power is why he will always just miss the bigtime. he fought perfectly vs. sonnen, i guess now he gets munoz and that should be fun, atleast with munoz bisping will have to fear some more meaningful striking and power.

not only would bisping have beaten maia, but i think munoz would have beaten sonnen. everyone who was backing sonnen against munoz probably lucked out.

im a little bitter since i had plays on bisping against maia, and munoz against sonnen.

[Vaughany]

UFC on FOX 2 Review:

Summary of UFC on FOX 2 plays:


25 units on Evans at -145 to win 17.241 units;

33.3 units on Evans at -162.5 to win 20.492 units;

0.062 units on Evans SOTN at +2500 to win 1.55 units;


Parlay: 0.654 units Barboza (-290), Evans (-150), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 2.351 units;


Parlay: 3.241 units on Saffiedine/Stinson to Go Over 1.5 Rounds (-170), & Evans (-140) to win 5.583 units;


Parlay: 0.324 units on Woodley/Mein Over 2.5 Rounds, Evans (-140), Condit (+145), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 4.107 units;


6.4 units on Evans by TKO/KO at +251 to win 16.065 units;

11.589 units on Not Evans Inside the Distance at -181 to win 6.403 units;


8.823 units on Sonnen by Decision at -117.65 to win 7.5 units;

3.046 units on Sonnen by Decision at -120 to win 2.538 units;

5.048 units on Sonnen/Bisping to Go the Distance at -200 to win 2.524 units;


Parlay: 1.62 units on Sonnen (-333.33), Nick Diaz (-150), & Ben Henderson (+110) to win 5.751 units;


Parlay: 6.25 units on Sonnen (-350), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 5 units;


3.333 units on Maia at +150 to win 4.999 units;

2 units on Weidman by Decision at +175 to win 3.5 units;

1.064 units on Weidman by TKO/KO or by Decision at +120 to win 1.277 units;

0.73 units on Weidman by Decision at +175 to win 1.278 units;

5.048 units on Weidman/Maia to Go the Distance at -200 to win 2.524 units;


Parlay: 6.354 units on Dunham/Lentz Starts Round 3 (-180), Sonnen/Bisping Starts Round 2 (-832), & Evans/Davis Starts Round 2 (-445) to win 7.206 units;


Parlay: 6.357 units on Oliveira/Wisely Starts Round 2 (-135) & Sonnen/Bisping Starts Round 2 (-665) to win 6.372 units;


Parlay: 6.362 units on Juventus/Udinese: Either team to Not Score 4 or more goals (-927), Maia/Weidman to Start Round 2 (-488), Sonnen/Bisping to Start Round 2 (-675), & Evans/Davis to Start Round 2 (-403) to win 5.809 units;


Parlay: 0.636 units on Juventus (-179), Maia/Weidman to Start Round 2 (-488), & Napoli/Genoa Over 2.5 Goals (-111) to win 1.635 units.


5 units on Phil Davis SOTN at +1000 to win 50 units;

0.125 units on Phil Davis SOTN at +1200 to win 1.5 units;

hedged with:

35 units on Not Phil Davis by Submission at -670 to win 5.224 units;


If Mr Wonderful wins by Submission he will get SOTN seeing as it's main event, Rashad has never been submitted, and he's the underdog.


Parlay: 10 units on Dunham (-300) & Evans by TKO/KO (+210) to win 31.333 units;

2.4 units on Lentz by Decision at +424 to win 10.176 units;

2.038 units on Dunham/Lentz to Go the Distance at -162.5 to win 1.254 units;

If Dunham wins then I will probably arb out with "Not Evans by TKO/KO" for risk free profit.


0.041 units on Beltran SOTN at +3500 to win 1.435 units;

0.1 units on Beltran SOTN at +3300 to win 3.3 units;


0.5 units on Roller by Submission at +200 to win 1 unit;


1.872 units on Cammozi/Jacoby to Go the Distance at -150 to win 1.248 units

0.686 units on Camozzi by Decision at +187.5 to win 1.286 units.

Quite a few arbs on the go. Will make 3.32 units profit if Einemo wins or 0.325 units if Russow wins (plus another 0.4 units if Russow wins by TKO/KO). Arbed out of my 70 units on Sonnen at -350 with Bisping at +385 so will make 7 units if Bisping wins or overall stake back if Sonnen wins. Also got Not Maia Submission of the Night at -420, and Maia SOTN at +800 and +900 so will make a risk free 21.8 units profit if Maia gets SOTN, or 0.316 units if not. Similar with Bisping SOTN at +3300, and Not Bisping SOTN at -1500...30 units if he does get SOTN or 1 unit if not.
Should of waited longer but also got Swanson at -105 and Roop at +120...will net me 2.436 units if Roop wins, 0.351 if Swanson is victorious.

Adding:


Parlay: 6.362 units on Maia/Weidman to Start Round 2 (-495), Sonnen/Bisping to Start Round 2 (-488), & Condit (+155) to win 17.135 units.

Adding:


Parlay: 6.362 units on Evans/Davis to Start Round 2 (-371), & Condit (+155) to win 14.234 units.

Total stake: 188.193 units

Total return: 224.415 units

Total profit: +36.222 units (+38.571 units inc' arbs)


Plus have the following pending parlays going strong coming off of UFC on FOX 2:


Parlay: 0.324 units on Woodley/Mein Over 2.5 Rounds, Evans (-140), Condit (+145), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 4.107 units;

Parlay: 0.654 units Barboza (-290), Evans (-150), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 2.351 units;

Parlay: 6.362 units on Maia/Weidman to Start Round 2 (-495), Sonnen/Bisping to Start Round 2 (-488), & Condit (+155) to win 17.135 units.

Parlay: 6.362 units on Evans/Davis to Start Round 2 (-371), & Condit (+155) to win 14.234 units.

Parlay: 6.25 units on Sonnen (-350), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 5 units;

Parlay: 1.62 units on Sonnen (-333.33), Nick Diaz (-150), & Ben Henderson (+110) to win 5.751 units;

[The Fobfather]

Congrats on another profitable night. See that you had Bendo in a few parlays.

Could I get your thoughts on why you favor Bendo over Frankie?

[Vaughany]

Congrats on another profitable night. See that you had Bendo in a few parlays.

Could I get your thoughts on why you favor Bendo over Frankie?

As with my plays on Condit, I don't necessarily favour either Bendo or Condit. Aside from them both being underdogs and thus plus odds meaning they boost parlay payouts substantially, I also just think tht they both have more chance of finishing their opponents, whilst if Diaz and Edgar are victorious I believe that they are more likely to win by decision. This means I can hedge these parlays with Diaz by decision (for the ones with Condit in) and Edgar by decision (for the ones with Bendo in) or even fight goes distance if the odds are right - and thus have greater profit margins with reduced risk (IMO), rather than just arbing with Diaz and Edgar straight-up.

Although Frankie is my favourite fighter, I do think that Bendo has all the tools to beat him. Considerable size advantage, great chin, crazy submission defense, solid wrestling, powerful leg-kicks, very athletic, superb cardio, and the key thing for me which is the ability to implement and stick to a gameplan (which previous opponents Penn and Maynard both weren't able to do).

[The Fobfather]

As with my plays on Condit, I don't necessarily favour either Bendo or Condit. Aside from them both being underdogs and thus plus odds meaning they boost parlay payouts substantially, I also just think tht they both have more chance of finishing their opponents, whilst if Diaz and Edgar are victorious I believe that they are more likely to win by decision. This means I can hedge these parlays with Diaz by decision (for the ones with Condit in) and Edgar by decision (for the ones with Bendo in) or even fight goes distance if the odds are right - and thus have greater profit margins with reduced risk (IMO), rather than just arbing with Diaz and Edgar straight-up.

Thanks for the insight. I'm a big Bendo fan, but I've learned my lesson betting against Fe. Would love to see Bendo vs. Nate Diaz. Think that would be a war!

[Vaughany]

For me, the fact that it's a 5 round fight makes a big difference. If it was three rounds I'd say there is a reasonable chance Davis gets a close 29-28 or something just by getting the odd take-down and wall and stalling Rashad. But to do tht for 5 rounds is a big task. I find it hard to imagine Davis choking Rashad out (although this may be his best option during a scramble or something) and even harder to imagine him TKO/KO'ing Evans unless he lands one of his right head kicks that he likes to do (could happen if Evans completely overlooks him). One of the key things for me is that Davis has been matched-up with guys who are not the most athletic and quite flat-footed - the opposite of Rashad Evans. Initially he fought three guys with limited wrestling ability in Stann (small LHW now a Middleweight), a very raw Gustaffsson and Rodney Wallace (a chubby LHW with poor cardio). The UFC then stepped it up by giving Davis Tim Boetsch who does have a wrestling background, however aside from being undersized at LHW, he has always struggled and lost to fellow wrestlers in Matyushenko, Brilz and Hamill so stylistically was a good match-up for the superior grappler in Davis. And most recently, Lil Nog was another a fight that wasn't that bad stylistically for Davis seeing as we'd witnessed Nog struggle with lesser wrestlers than Davis in Bader and Brilz before. And like his brother, Lil Nog has never been the most athletic fighter yet he was still able to stuff Davis' early takedown attempts. To Davis' credit he showed how adaptable he can be by switching things up and getting the takedowns in Round 2 and 3 though, and he'd had a bad camp where he had to deal with injuries including his back which undoubtedly impacted on his takedown explosiveness. But Lil Nog being a BJJ guy and not particularly athletic is not the type to automatically spring back to his feet and he'll happily work off his back and look for subs or trying and stall his opponent. After Davis got his first single leg takedown on Nog, Nog was able to kick Davis off and had a great opportunity to get back to his feet but just wasnt athletic enough to do it. Evans on the other hand won't mess around and will always look to use the cage or even the slightest chance to get right back to his feet as soon as he is taken down, and is usually successful. However, this is why I think Davis' best chance may well be to look for the submission as Rashad will take chances and scrambles to get back to his feet. Im sure many will say Davis has no chance of subbing Rashad seeing as Davis is a blue-belt and Rashad is a Rolles Gracie black-belt, has never been subbed and has a huge experience advantage, but Davis like Jones is a bit of an anomaly when it comes to grappling due to his size and length. As we saw in the Boetsch fight, Davis is very creative with his submissions and if he can take Rashad's back or lock in a guillotine during a scramble there is a small chance Rashad taps. As impressive as Davis' sub of Gustaffsson was, we should bare in mind that Gustaffsson was very raw at this point and had not yet trained with Alliance. Even still, although Gustaffsson's offensive grappling has been impressive, defensively there are still question marks as he was taken down early by James Te-Huna.

Davis likes to throw kicks, especially right head and body kick that can open him up for counter left staight and left-hook (which happens to be Rashad's favourite striking technique). Nog was able to counter a couple of times but wasn't quick enough. Rashad is quick enough and is solid at countering with hooks. Against Griffin, Rashad used his left jab and straight right to good effect, and finished the fight with GnP after landing a straight right from catching a Griffin right body kick. I also like how Evans has also now added more body shots, knees and elbows to his game (more of a Muay Thai style rather than kickboxing) since training with Spong and Henry Hooft.

Most my plays on this rely on it going at least a round. I'm pretty confident this one goes the distance. A lot depends on whether Weidman is confident enough to use his wrestling offensively. From seeing and reading interviews with him and Danaher they would suggest that he is confident that he can take Maia down and not get submitted and I tend to agree. With him coming in on short notice I expect Weidman to look to just control him on the ground and try and steal rounds with takedowns and perhaps hold Maia agaisnt the fence just to show "octagon control" and get the nod from the judges. Basically I like Weidman to get the decision. Small chance of a TKO from Weidman through GnP but unlikely.

Big plays on Rashad straight up at -145 and -162.5. Wouldn't take him at worst than -175 tho.

Moderate play on Sonnen by decision at -117 and -120. Again wouldnt play at worse than -125.

Moderate play on Weidman/Maia going the distance and Weidman by decision

Not fully satisfied with the nights results, was expecting to make at least 50 units. Hopefully a few followed on my main card predictions! My bets for main card were perfect but under-card wasn't as great although were only small plays. Evans fight went as I thought - Rashad was superior everywhere, only thing I was wrong on was tht I thought Rashad would get a TKO. Should of expected that he'd coast to a decision and just go through the motions due to being fully aware that a shot at Jones was on the line and he needed to be fit for April time. Fortunately had "fight starts Round 2" in a few parlays so that helped make up for not arbing out of my Dunham and Rashad by TKO/KO double which cost me about 10 units. Got unlucky with the Dunham/Lentz fight not starting round 3...tht cost me just over 6 units, and the Oliveira fight not starting round 2 was another 6 units down the drain! In last few events I've done well in the undercard then slipped up a little on main card - especially with the parlays and "Fight starts Round x" type bets, but this time it was the undercard that I didnt do as well on.

Probably wont have as many plays for UFC 143 aside from the pending parlays that I have involving Condit and Diaz. Condit/Diaz FOTN will probably be my big play, but there are a few fights that could challenge that such as Caceres/Figueroa, Poirier/Holloway, and Barao/Jorgensen so depends on the odds. May also play Nelson hedged with fight goes distance, or Werdum by decision, or Fight Starts Round 2 in a few parlays. Find it hard imagining Werdum finishing Nelson. Pierce KOTN could be a nice long-shot prop that I'd consider - all depends on Koschecks mind-set going in to this one. Koscheck may be over-looking Pierce and be happy to show off his "high-level kickboxing" which actually isn't high-level! If he's smart and uses his wrestling than he should take it comfortably as aside from being the better wrestler he will also have a slight size advantage. Barao/Jorgensen distance prop will be another bet I'll consider depending on the odds, or will at least have "Starts Round 2" in a couple parlays. Ed Herman SOTN could also be an interesting option....if he shows a similar guard to the one against Noke then Starks could be in trouble!

[Vaughany]

UFC on FUEL TV 2 play:


12.499 units on Gustafsson at -166.67 to win 7.499 units.


Will probably arb out of this with Lil Nog at +200 or better.

[bjpenn85]

I have 20 units on gustaffson, also at -166, do you know that bookmaker have lil nog at +205? im thinking about arbing out this play as well, but i dont see lil nog winning a decision, which mean i may take the chance on lil nog inside distance as hedge. How do you see this fight going?

[gabe]

Arb out? Naw, Gustie isn't losing, especially at home. I think in your heart you know you are not going to arb out, V. If anything, you're going to add to The Gust.

for your UFC on FOX 2 pwnage-a-tois.

[Vaughany]

I have 20 units on gustaffson, also at -166, do you know that bookmaker have lil nog at +205? im thinking about arbing out this play as well, but i dont see lil nog winning a decision, which mean i may take the chance on lil nog inside distance as hedge. How do you see this fight going?

Yeah I think Gustafsson by decision is most likely income. Nog is going to be tough to finish and despite Alexander's rapid grappling improvements since training at Alliance, Nog will still have the advantage on the ground IMO...but I doubt it will go to the ground unless one of them get dropped. Be interesting to see how Gustafsson copes with headlining the first event in his home country. May be he'll rise to the occasion, maybe not...but I'd lean towards it being the former.

I can't deposit in BM still due to not getting this Netteller authorization thing done yet. Hopefully he'll stick around +200 for a while and I can get him on a Euro book.

[Vaughany]

Arb out? Naw, Gustie isn't losing, especially at home. I think in your heart you know you are not going to arb out, V. If anything, you're going to add to The Gust.

for your UFC on FOX 2 pwnage-a-tois.

Maybe, but as I've said above, I dont think Gustaf will be able to finish Nog. See it going distance so might be better off arbing out and playing Gustaf by decision. Could also have Gustafsson KO of the Night as well as back up as it would have to be a perfect punch on the button to rock and finish Nog (similar to Sokoudjou's).

[gabe]

Maybe, but as I've said above, I dont think Gustaf will be able to finish Nog. See it going distance so might be better off arbing out and playing Gustaf by decision. Could also have Gustafsson KO of the Night as well as back up as it would have to be a perfect punch on the button to rock and finish Nog (similar to Sokoudjou's).

Inside the distance or not, Gust ain't losing, homie! But yeah, if it goes to a decsion, he will win, unless he is dominated all 3 rounds.

[illmatick]

Gust is getting boxed up. Bet.

Is Gust a far better striker, gabe?

[Vaughany]

Inside the distance or not, Gust ain't losing, homie! But yeah, if it goes to a decsion, he will win, unless he is dominated all 3 rounds.

Yeah he'd have to get dropped early by Nog then be in recovery mode for remainder of fight in order to lose a decision

[Vaughany]

Gust is getting boxed up. Bet.

Is Gust a far better striker, gabe?

Could well happen. He does keep his hands down a lot and doesn't have a lot of head movement. Only thing that seems to have improved since being at Alliance, aside from his grappling obviously, is his footwork and leg-kicks. Like most guys who go to Alliance they end trying to duplicate Dominick Cruz's style of hands low and working unpredictable angles - Travis Browne is best example of this. Ross Pearson also looked quite similar at times during his last couple of fights.

[illmatick]

I'm sure Gabe had the same confidence when Nog fought Luiz Cane, just a hunch.

[gabe]

He might not be as good a boxer, but yeah, I would say the combination of his athleticism, speed, movement, and kickboxing make him the better fighter on the feet.