UFC on ESPN+: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan (August 01, 2020)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 9:00 pm ET
Derek Brunson vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
Joanne Calderwood vs. Jennifer Maia
Vicente Luque vs. Randy Brown
Lando Vannata vs. Bobby Green
Trevin Giles vs. Kevin Holland

ESPN+ 6:00 pm ET
Jonathan Martinez vs. Frankie Saenz
Ed Herman vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Ray Borg vs. Nate Maness
Eric Spicely vs. Markus Perez
Jamall Emmers vs. Timur Valiev
Cody Durden vs. Chris Gutierrez

[Hugo de Naranja]

Got a big dog that I like a lot for this card.

[Sanity Check]

Back in the day.

Bitcoin sportsbooks would discontinue MMA support if people like me won too much $$.

Some crypto books went bankrupt. They would send an email saying "withdraw your funds in 24 hours or your money is gone forever".

I see people on SBR wanting to share winners and "crush the books".

I've seen books be crushed and die before, its not as cool as some might think.

[PaperTrail07]

Uhhhhhh Brunson, Saenz..Herman, Spicely, Jimmers.... are all live as the come IMO.... LOL....this is REALLY messing with my head right now....

Got a big dog that I like a lot for this card.

[PaperTrail07]

its just as cool as it sounds...maybe betting at some shoestring shithole lol (betlandsurroundedbywater)....Most states taking bets and Vegas can MORE than handle the loss and by no means are going under lol....to get 5-10K down on a MMA bet now is not that wild and also is not sinking that many ships IMO.......

Back in the day.

Bitcoin sportsbooks would discontinue MMA support if people like me won too much $$.

Some crypto books went bankrupt. They would send an email saying "withdraw your funds in 24 hours or your money is gone forever".

I see people on SBR wanting to share winners and "crush the books".

I've seen books be crushed and die before, its not as cool as some might think.

[frankieunits2685]

3 round main event

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Brunson was the dog in his last two fights vs Heinisch +140 and Theodorou -105. Now +250 against a young prospect, crazy how he gets no respect. His loses came against the top of the division Adesanya, Souza, Silva*, Whittaker, Romero.

[THE_RUDESTER]

https://youtu.be/BFh2bw7LXqk

Ed Shahbazyan isn't Sage Northcutt he's the real deal and aims to be the youngest UFC Champion for several years now. I really doubt 36 year old Brunson will stop this kid. If Shahbazyan take an L to his undefeated record I don't see it happening vs Brunson. Shahbazyan has looked better and better every fight and he will continue his winning streak no doubt. I think Brunson gets sloppy and gets caught. Shahbazyan via TKO/KO.

[Hugo de Naranja]

https://youtu.be/BFh2bw7LXqk

Ed Shahbazyan isn't Sage Northcutt he's the real deal and aims to be the youngest UFC Champion for several years now. I really doubt 36 year old Brunson will stop this kid. If Shahbazyan take an L to his undefeated record I don't see it happening vs Brunson. Shahbazyan has looked better and better every fight and he will continue his winning streak no doubt. I think Brunson gets sloppy and gets caught. Shahbazyan via TKO/KO.

Do you think there is value on the Shahbazyan ML at (-330)?

[THE_RUDESTER]

Do you think there is value on the Shahbazyan ML at (-330)?

I did like him 2 days ago at -260. -330 not so much however I don't see him losing this matchup. I am more interested in a TKO/KO or finish inside the distance prop bet despite being a 3 round fight at may around -125/-150.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I did like him 2 days ago at -260. -330 not so much however I don't see him losing this matchup. I am more interested in a TKO/KO or finish inside the distance prop bet despite being a 3 round fight at may around -125/-150.

Good to know. Thanks for the response.

[WolfTicketDealer]

https://youtu.be/BFh2bw7LXqk

Ed Shahbazyan isn't Sage Northcutt he's the real deal and aims to be the youngest UFC Champion for several years now. I really doubt 36 year old Brunson will stop this kid. If Shahbazyan take an L to his undefeated record I don't see it happening vs Brunson. Shahbazyan has looked better and better every fight and he will continue his winning streak no doubt. I think Brunson gets sloppy and gets caught. Shahbazyan via TKO/KO.

Edmen looks promising but he has one top 25 win in Tavares who doesn't have the power nor defensive wrestling that Brunson has. Biggest test of Edmen's career to this point, and if he doesn't get Brunson out of there early it could be hairy. Edmen's cardio didn't look great in the Darren Stewart fight.

[PaperTrail07]

absolute no value IMO that's madness IMO ESP in a 3 rounder if you feel hes that much better-rounds can be stolen

Do you think there is value on the Shahbazyan ML at (-330)?

[Unkclan]

I think brunson has a ton of value even in a 3 rounder. I think he is a big step up for shahbazyan.

[THE_RUDESTER]

Good to know. Thanks for the response.

😎👍🏻 Shahbazyan via TKO/KO is the bet I believe. If he doesn't catch Brunson with a bigshot in the first he should get it done 2nd round. (My prediction.)

[PaperTrail07]

agree 100%....get on Brunson now IMO before the # gets lower....its borderline disrespectful ....so he pieced up Brad Tavares and the Dentist -MUCH different fight here....Brunson loses to TOP fighters....not these mid pack clowns with promotional videos.......

I think brunson has a ton of value even in a 3 rounder. I think he is a big step up for shahbazyan.

[ichiro4thehall]

Agree on the value on Brunson. Similar value right now on Chito Vera against O'Malley in 2 weeks' time.

Herman another great value bet right now, that is a pick'em imo at LHW. This is also my guess on Hugo's dog that he likes.

[PaperTrail07]

Huge GM3 fan...I like to think he cruises easy there bc he usually loses to guys fatster than him..this one is interesting bc herman is no uneducated fighter

Agree on the value on Brunson. Similar value right now on Chito Vera against O'Malley in 2 weeks' time.

Herman another great value bet right now, that is a pick'em imo at LHW. This is also my guess on Hugo's dog that he likes.

[povis]

I took Brunson at +260 i like Chito also after 2 weeks

[magpie878]

I rarely bet early, but I did this time, it's worth an early shot. DraftKings was only at +250, but I took it.

DraftKings blackjack has been a GREAT way to win back small bets too, recently, on the advice of a buddy doing it.

As soon as I bet Brunson (a mere $25 to start), I recouped it in blackjack. Then an NBA promo for $20, won back $31. It's great.

[frankieunits2685]

I rarely bet early, but I did this time, it's worth an early shot. DraftKings was only at +250, but I took it.

DraftKings blackjack has been a GREAT way to win back small bets too, recently, on the advice of a buddy doing it.

As soon as I bet Brunson (a mere $25 to start), I recouped it in blackjack. Then an NBA promo for $20, won back $31. It's great.

I heard blackjack on Draftkings was a nightmare. Ive never played it personally, I use DK sometimes for sports when line shopping.

[magpie878]

I heard blackjack on Draftkings was a nightmare. Ive never played it personally, I use DK sometimes for sports when line shopping.

I'd only done it a few times in the past. They have a lot of different tables/variations. The basic "DrafKings Blackjack" moves quickly and is easy to do.

[Sanity Check]

Democrats made draftkings/fanduel/kountermove illegal in my state.

They were screwing over minorities in this country, long before the riots.

[JIBBBY]

MMA MANIA prelim write ups coming in..



185 lbs.: Markus Perez (12-3) vs. Eric Spicely (12-5)
“Maluko” entered the world’s largest fight promotion on the heels of a submission win over Ian Heinisch, which earned him the LFA Middleweight Championship. He hasn’t quite found his footing in the Octagon, going 2-3 and recently dropping a decision to Wellington Turman. He is the shorter man by an inch but has a slight reach advantage.
Impressive submissions of Thiago Santos and Alessio Di Chirico had “Zebrinha” knocking on the door of contention, only for three consecutive stoppage losses to bounce him from the promotion. After scoring a pair of knockouts in CES, he returned to face Deron Winn on short notice, earning Fight of the Night in a competitive defeat. All 10 of his professional finishes have come in the first round.
It’s hard to get a bead on Perez, who at times seems like less than the sum of his parts. Unfortunately for Spicely, he might be in an even worse position, proving consistently unable to parlay his legitimately excellent ground game into consistent MMA success. The devil-may-care approach he took against Winn looked promising, though, and he could find success outworking “Maluko.”
That possibility isn’t compelling enough to discount his issues with wrestling and durability, however. Perez should be able to hold his own on the feet and take Spicely down as necessary, either racking up enough top control to claim the decision or catching Spicely in a front choke if the latter tries his own shot.
Prediction: Perez by unanimous decision
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145 lbs.: Jamall Emmers (17-5) vs. Timur Valiev (16-2)
Emmers’ loss on the “Contender Series” didn’t stop him from winning his next four by stoppage, including a submission over Rafael Barbosa in his first LFA main event. He ultimately made the Octagon walk in March, where he lost a narrow decision to Giga Chikadze at UFC 248. He’s knocked out seven pro opponents and submitted another three.
Valiev reached the 2018 PFL Featherweight playoffs with wins over Max Coga and Bekbulat Magomedov, only to withdraw due to injury. He then returned to Russia to win two more bouts and extend his winning streak to six since a questionable decision loss to Chris Gutierrez. He stands four inches shorter than Emmers and gives up six inches of reach.
This is a tough matchup for Emmers to begin with, and it’ll only get tougher if he keeps up his habit of waiting to wrestle until he’s already dropped a round. Valiev’s speed and variety make him the more effective striker even with Emmers’ height and reach, and though the Dagestani is a natural Bantamweight, his PFL run showed that he can hold his own against 145ers.
Emmers can still win this if he focuses on taking Valiev to the mat, especially if Valiev gets overly fond of throwing flying knees or catchable kicks, but Valiev’s historically shown good balance and the ability to get off of his back in a hurry. Like training partner Frankie Edgar, Valiev defuses the larger man with slick movement and volume to take the decision.
Prediction: Valiev by unanimous decision


135 lbs.: Chris Gutierrez (15-3-1) vs. Cody Durden (11-2)
Gutierrez started his Octagon career on the wrong foot, tapping to a rear naked choke from Brazilian standout Raoni Barcelos. Things have gone a bit more smoothly since, as he’s won three straight and scored a rare leg kick finish in the process. He’s scored seven wins by form of knockout and one via rear naked choke.
The latest quality signing of the quarantine era, Durden enters the UFC in the midst of a seven-fight winning streak. The ATT Atlanta product last fought on the 18^th of this month, demolishing John Sweeney in just 80 seconds. He replaces Luke Sanders on six days’ notice.
This pick is a shot in the dark, unfortunately. All of Durden’s recent fights are locked behind FloCombat’s paywall, leaving me to extrapolate from older footage against terrible opposition. Between a strong wrestling pedigree and some decent striking, he definitely looks like a strong prospect, but he hasn’t dealt with anyone even near Gutierrez’s level.
While Gutierrez has admittedly had some issues with takedown defense in the past, his quality footwork and debilitating leg kicks will make it extremely difficult for Durden to get his wrestling offense going. There may be some key to Durden’s victory hiding in that footage, but expect Gutierrez to steadily break him down for a late finish.
Prediction: Gutierrez by second-round TKO





135 lbs.: Frankie Saenz (12-6) vs. Jonathan Martinez (11-3)
Saenz rose through the Bantamweight ranks with three consecutive wins, only to hit a three-fight losing streak slightly tempered by his Fight of the Night bonus against “Tanquinho” Mendes. Wins over Merab Dvalishvili and Henry Briones got him back on track, though Marlon Vera proved too much to handle. This will be his first fight in over 16 months.
“Dragon” put his short-notice UFC debut loss behind him by beating Wuliji Buren and Liu Pingyuan, the latter of which earned him a Performance of the Night bonus. He appeared to have made it three straight against Andre Ewell, but wound up on the wrong end of a split decision. He’s two inches taller than Saenz and will enjoy a 3.5 inch advantage.
I’ll admit to procrastinating on this one, if only because it’s such a two-true-outcome fight. Saenz would be 1-5 in his last six with proper judging, but he can definitely wrestle, which remains Martinez’s key weakness. I can very easily see Saenz grinding his way to a narrow victory.
I can also see him getting torn apart at range, and that seems a lot more likely. Between Saenz’s age and mileage, Martinez should be able to outhustle him and score a fight-ending blow before long.
Prediction: Martinez by first-round TKO


205 lbs.: Ed Herman (24-14) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (31-13)
After nearly 10 years as a UFC Middleweight, Herman elected to move to 205 pounds, where he knocked out Tim Boetsch before dropping three straight. He got back on track last year with a pair of upset victories over Patrick Cummins and Khadis Ibragimov. He gives up 2.5 inches of reach to “GM3.”
Meerschaert bounced back from a questionable decision loss to Eryk Anders by choking out prospect Deron Winn for his sixth Octagon finish. He couldn’t capitalize on the momentum, though, falling to Ian Heinisch by knockout in just 74 seconds. He replaces Da Un Jung on less than two weeks’ notice.
Even acknowledging that Herman is better than I usually give him credit for and that the Heinisch debacle rattled my faith in “GM3’s” historically rock-solid debacle, I favor the late replacement. He’s got the heavier hands, enough grappling chops to hold if Herman hits his first takedown since 2017, and his body attack looks like a genuine threat against the 39-year-old “Short Fuse.”
Herman will struggle to outwork, knock out, or outgrapple his younger foe unless he can find the killer knee that’s scored his only finishes in the last eight years. Against a similarly tall opponent who prefers to work at range, that seems unlikely. Meerschaert outworks him on the feet for a comfortable decision win.
Prediction: Meerschaert by unanimous decision


135 lbs.: Ray Borg (13-5) vs. Nathan Maness (11-1)
Borg rebounded from consecutive losses to Demetrious Johnson and Casey Kenney with decision wins over Gabriel Silva and Rogério Bontorin, though he missed weight against the latter. Then came a quality scrap with Ricky Simón, which saw Borg show some improved standup en route to a split decision loss. He’s dispatched six pro opponents by submission, though none since 2015.
Maness followed up his decision over veteran Caio Machado with a second-round knockout of Jesse Arnett to claim the TKO Bantamweight title. Though he lost the belt to UFC veteran Taylor Lapilus in his first defense, he returned in February with a 99-second knockout win. He’ll have a six-inch height advantage and a nine-inch reach advantage.
Despite being a perennial underachiever, this looks like a very winnable matchup for Borg. Maness’ edges in height and length are undercut by his vulnerability to pressure, which the 5’6” Lapilus exploited to piece “Mayhem” up against the fence. So long as he stays on the front foot, Borg should be able to comfortably work in the pocket and threaten with takedowns.
Maness does have some pop and counters well, making closing the distance a bit hazardous, but Borg’s historically been durable and persistent enough to power through return fire. Even if the takedown isn’t always there, his speed and aggression will carry him to a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Borg by unanimous decision

[JIBBBY]

Main Card -


Welterweight: Vicente Luque vs. Randy Brown

Best Win for Luque? Belal Muhammad For Brown? Bryan Barberena
Current Streak: Luque won his last bout, whereas Brown has put together two straight
X-Factor: Brown’s rapid improvement
How these two match up: This is going to be all-action.
Luque is one of the sport’s most potent offensive forces. His Muay Thai is brutal, his counter punches pack serious heat, and Luque jumps on the neck when given the slightest opening. He’s also damn tough and plenty durable, which means even elite foes that have out-maneuvered “The Silent Assassin” took damage in the process.
Alternatively, Brown is just now really coming into his own. “Rude Boy” is finding better success making the most of his lanky build, sticking his opponents with powerful straight punches as well as slamming home clinch knees.
I expect Brown to perform well here until he gets finished. His distance kickboxing has improved considerably in recent fights, which says he’s likely to land some big shots as Luque pressures. Unfortunately, Luque has no qualms about getting punched in the face; it does not deter him, and his chin has yet to fail.
Regardless of strikes absorbed, Luque will push forward until he’s in the pocket. Suddenly, Brown’s height and long jab will appear a liability, as Luque slips inside and counters with a nasty left hook or overhand.
Prediction: Luque via knockout
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Lightweight: Lando Vannata vs. Bobby Green 2

Best Win for Vannata? Yancy Medeiros For Green? Josh Thomson
Current Streak: Both men have won their last bout
X-Factor: Who adjusts better in this rematch?
How these two match up: The first bout won “Fight of the Night,” and I expect the sequel to live up to the hype.
Historically, Vannata is all about offense, dealing major damage with some creative kicks, quick entries, and an accurate right hand. However, his inability to pace himself cost him several fights, and he tried out a more conservative approach in his last bout to out-point Medeiros.
Green is a true veteran. Skilled everywhere, he usually likes to stand and trade, employing a nice shoulder roll and snapping counters to get the better of foes. However, Green is an underrated wrestler and grappler, and he’s generally tough as an old shoe.
Though he did earn the decision, I’ll admit that Vannata’s most recent performance opposite Medeiros did not really amaze me. He pretty much circled and threw kicks against an opponent who refused to cut off the cage. A win’s a win, but Green is a bit smarter and more varied in his offense.
There are two key factors in this bout for me. First and foremost, can Vannata out-duel Green without relying on athleticism and sapping the gas tank? It seems unlikely, as Green’s own slick boxing will not let him coast.
Secondly, I like the recent consistency I’ve seen from Green. His last three fights have all seen Green fighting tough opposition and performing well, even if the judges haven’t always agreed. Vannata is still finding himself, and while he is dangerous, that’s not ideal against a well-rounded veteran like “King.”
Prediction: Green via decision
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Middleweight: Kevin Holland vs. Trevin Giles

Best Win for Holland? Gerald Meerschaert For Giles? James Krause
Current Streak: Both fighters won their most recent bout
X-Factor: Holland is a giant x-factor
How these two match up: It’s Middleweight, so expect some weirdness!
Holland is an unpredictable man. He has skills everywhere, and sometimes he shows it, like his recent body shot knockotu in just 39 seconds over Anthony Hernandez. Other times, he’ll get lackadaisical, rest at weird times, and willing compete with his opponent in their strongest area.
Opposite him will be Giles, once looked at as one of Middleweight’s hottest prospects. “The Problem” is a quality athlete with solid wrestling and a sharp left hand. Like Holland, Giles is building a reputation for making strange in-fight decisions.
This is tough. I could see Holland being too willing to grapple with Giles, resulting in Giles simply beating him up from top position. On the flip side, I could see Giles actively looking to strike rather than wrestle, in which case the most likely end result would be Giles hitting the canvas.
Both men are 27 years old, so both questionable decision-making and rapid growth are to be expected to a certain degree. Ultimately, Holland has proven himself more consistently against a higher level of competition, and he seems more comfortable wherever the fight goes.
I say it without confidence, but nevertheless ...
Prediction: Holland via submission

[magpie878]

Pretty quiet here so far.... opinions?

Don't love the odds necessarily, but liking Calderwood, Luque, Green.


And Valiev is out.

[Unkclan]

Pretty quiet here so far.... opinions?

Don't love the odds necessarily, but liking Calderwood, Luque, Green.


And Valiev is out.

I'm on those 3, brunson, and borg

[frankieunits2685]

I'm on those 3, brunson, and borg

Borg is out

[WolfTicketDealer]

Borg needs to be cut at this point. Ridiculous how often he pulls out and/or misses weight.

[WolfTicketDealer]

Also kinda upset the Spicely fight was scrapped. Had a nice price on Won't go Distance.

[frankieunits2685]

Borg needs to be cut at this point. Ridiculous how often he pulls out and/or misses weight.

he was a decent sized betting favorite for this one as well.

[WolfTicketDealer]

Pretty quiet here so far.... opinions?

Don't love the odds necessarily, but liking Calderwood, Luque, Green.


And Valiev is out.

Not a very good betting card in my opinion. Got Martinez around the opener, Brunson and Luque.

[hankcream]

Martinez looked bad and missed weight by over 5 pounds , leaning Saenz at a nice +money price

[Hugo de Naranja]

Another last minute pullout for Borg. Time to give him the axe once and for all.

[frankieunits2685]

Another last minute pullout for Borg. Time to give him the axe once and for all.

yes, agreed.