UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw - January 19th

[firekillex]

I dont know with you guys, but i think Cejudo is really nerd. Awful sense of humour and just so annoying. But one hell of a fighter.

Do you see Cejudo outstrike TJ?

guys personality is definitely fake IMO, he tries way too hard
one thing i liked is how TJ said he will to 125 easier which i actually think could be true.. people forget how many times Cejudo has missed weight an how bad he looks at weigh ins

[bjpenn85]

guys personality is definitely fake IMO, he tries way too hard
one thing i liked is how TJ said he will to 125 easier which i actually think could be true.. people forget how many times Cejudo has missed weight an how bad he looks at weigh ins

Off course hes personality is fake. If youre a total nerd, how can you really portray yourself as funny or cool, when you are not. Its funny how difficult it is to be something you are not. It seems like most people have a really good bullshit detector. Even way before Jones was taken with his pants down, before the DUIs and the steroids. People were never sold that he was a good guy.

TJ is more likeable, he is super aggressive as a person, a real maniac, and super touchy feely, which obviously goes hand in hand with that level of temper but he at least comes off as a genuine guy.

I cant identify with Cejudo one bit. Like som nerds are cozy and really fun hanging out with, cejudo is just a boring nerd which isnt even interesting. He has only been wrestling and never read a book in his life, thats my impression.

[UncleChael]

"I've got the snake by the head. I'ma chop that head off and win that championship" - Henry Cejudo

[Hugo de Naranja]

Ok, maybe not a decade, what I just meant is I really don't see what he is doing now that is in any way different from what he was doing when he lost to Benevitez. Don't see a different fighter in that Octagon. And don't really think he was fighting any differently even before that. Just see the same guy, just maybe better fight IQ, less lunges.

Not knocking him, just think he's as technically sound in his strike game now as he has always been. Where's the evolution?

Anyways, anybody else looking at taking fliers against Hardy simply due to the fact that name recognition is def inflating that line?

Fair points. Cejudo has adopted a more Karate based standup game which gave him some success against Reis and DJ but I agree that’s TJ is still considerably better on the feet.

[Hugo de Naranja]

If crowder will expose Hardy, then i dont think he is as good as we tought. Just by that iitty bitty tape available from fightpass, i think its more than enough to conclude that more or less all parameters goes to Hardy. Crowder isnt bad at all, he just cant take Hardy.

The first 3 min will be too brutal for most lower level heavyweights, Crowder should take him down, but the UFC didnt book any top level wrestler, they book Crowder. Crowder is 100% not that guy.

Only playable line here is maybe under 1.5 rounds. Even the 1.round prop is down to 1.43.

Correction: Crowder IS bad. If Hardy can’t beat him, he doesn’t deserve to be in the UFC.

[Shagdogy]

Correction: Crowder IS bad. If Hardy can’t beat him, he doesn’t deserve to be in the UFC.

Thank you Hugo. Crowder is bad. I’ve been through his regional fights and his opponents were bad and his skills displayed have always been poor. He’s very low level for the UFC.

[Shagdogy]

What's up everyone... disappeared for a while. Poking my head back in. Of course I have nothing to offer. Been through most of these fights and finding this card a pretty terrible one at least with regards to MLs so far.

Anyone take a close look at PVZ vs. Ostovich? PVZ is one of the very few who move up in weight and don't have immediate success. Seems like the only reason Ostovich is dog odds is the name value of PVZ. Not a fight i'm particularly confident picking, but think there's some line value with Ostovich.

So no one cares about this fight? Haha. Well for what it’s worth I played Ostovich to win 3u at +140 for a variety of reasons.

[Thor4140]

"I've got the snake by the head. I'ma chop that head off and win that championship" - Henry Cejudo

Doesn’t he mean “retain that championship”?

[CasaBonita]

Damn TJ looks on point! Im bombimg the line Lets go KILLASHAW

[Thrilla]

VanZant 9 months without training/ developing her skills + octagon rust + question marks about how well the injury recovered.

[JIBBBY]

VanZant 9 months without training/ developing her skills + octagon rust + question marks about how well the injury recovered.

Sounds like she got pregnant and had a baby

You do lose your timing and confidence when you take that much time off and especially if you don't train especially at the UFC level...

[turbozed]

So no one cares about this fight? Haha. Well for what it’s worth I played Ostovich to win 3u at +140 for a variety of reasons.

I have about 2u on Ostovich, mostly ML but some dec line (got them around +160 and +220). I'm glad you're also on board. Think this fight should be even odds at the worst. I'd put Ostovich as a slight fave just for being a natural 125'er with some competent points, but maybe I'm being too harsh on PVZ.

Here's a bit I wrote on the fight on the SD forum:

"I bet Ostovich at +160 and like the price a lot. As was mentioned before, PVZ's advantages in this fight are all intangibles--heart and grit and the occasional jump kick that lands out of 50 attempts. But PVZ against any decent 125 lber with any sort of grappling is a bad matchup for her. She looked absolutely tiny in there with JRC, and didn't look like she bulked up at all for the higher division. She hasn't submitted anyone off her back that I know and her physicality disadvantage up a weightclass should make it even harder for her to lock something up.Ostovich doesn't really have to work too hard to get inside.

PVZ is no Joanna and her outside movement is non-functional wasted movement. She'll take a bunch of steps back and forth but when she's ready to strike, she literally stands upright in place for a couple of seconds giving any girl looking for a TD ample time to get one off. JRC looked like she could've taken PVZ down whenever she wanted but was too happy to make use of her boxing advantage. Ostovich can take it to the ground whenever she's not liking the standup or just to seal a close round. I rewatched the DLR fight and thought both 2 rounds were 50/50, scoring them for Ostovich (were scorecards released?).

I really didn't think PVZ would fight again at 125, and now she's a favorite and it's hard for me to pass up this opportunity despite the weirdness of the situation. Whatever emotional issues Ostovich is having, PVZ has had her own issues not training for 9 out of the 12 months since her last fight, getting married, multiple surgeries, getting , etc. PVZ won 1 round in her past 4 fights and would probably be 0-4 if Rawlings didn't fall for that silly jump kick (and that 3rd round in JRC fight was very close and JRC was cruising anyway).

[bjpenn85]

"I've got the snake by the head. I'ma chop that head off and win that championship" - Henry Cejudo

A lot of people went for Brian Ortega as well, sometimes people just want to fill in the gaps themselves.

TJ is going to win the standup imo, so how is Cejudo winning? I dont think it will happen. If you cant really explain in detail how its going to happen then....

Most people on Cejudo cant really come up with reasons beyond that dillashaws cardio going to suffer in round 4 and 5, which is an ok argument. KO? Also, may happen, but..then you can always say hes getting KTFO. Its not the most likely scenario.

" i got cejudo" yes ok, but how?

Thats why i cant really takes those peoples opinion seriously. Outgrapple TJ? Get out of here!

[Thrilla]

The total is set at o/u 4.5 rounds so according to the oddsmakers if Cejudo pulls the upset it's going to be by decision.

[Teem]

Thoughts on Edwards/Bermudez? I'm liking Bermudez to finally get a W. I don't know anything about Edwards though. I know Bermudez has been getting robbed.

[bjpenn85]

Thoughts on Edwards/Bermudez? I'm liking Bermudez to finally get a W. I don't know anything about Edwards though. I know Bermudez has been getting robbed.

Bermudez, but that glass chin and Edwards power.

Can hedge with Edwards KO, but you only get +180, so...that tarnishes your profit.

Also, how good is Edwards? Hard to grasp. So he can be a little bit better than we think, or he can be a little bit worse.

So it comes down to...are you willing to bet that Edwards is worse than Bermudez without any safe evidence on data (since we barely have seen him compete in the ufc, and almost nothing at the regionals with comparable competition), compared to bet on a more familiar fighter on the card?

Thats why i dont put money on this fight, although i agree with you, from deductive reasoning Bermudez should win.

[Teem]

Bermudez, but that glass chin and Edwards power.

Can hedge with Edwards KO, but you only get +180, so...that tarnishes your profit.

Also, how good is Edwards? Hard to grasp. So he can be a little bit better than we think, or he can be a little bit worse.

So it comes down to...are you willing to bet that Edwards is worse than Bermudez without any safe evidence on data (since we barely have seen him compete in the ufc, and almost nothing at the regionals with comparable competition), compared to bet on a more familiar fighter on the card?

Thats why i dont put money on this fight, although i agree with you, from deductive reasoning Bermudez should win.

Thanks for the feedback! I'm gonna look more into this fight.

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups -






155 lbs.: Dennis Bermudez vs. Te Edwards

Dennis Bermudez (16-9) enters the cage this Saturday on a four-fight losing streak, though only his knockout loss to Chan Sung Jung was definitive. His subsequent defeats to Darren Elkins, Andre Fili and Rick Glenn all came by split decision, with the majority of MMA media scoring them for “The Menace.” This will be his first Lightweight bout in more than eight years.
Te Edwards (6-2) smashed his way to UFC with a 28-second one-punch knockout of Austin Tweedy on “Contender Series,” his fifth consecutive win by first-round stoppage. The Muay Thai stylings of Don Madge proved too much, however, as the South African put him away with a head kick seconds into the second round. He stands two inches taller than Bermudez and will have a six-inch reach advantage.
Frankly, I expected quite a lot more from Edwards against Madge, but his lack of striking craft and defensive grappling showed themselves. He’s still got plenty of potential and those problems can be chalked up to a lack of experience; unfortunately, they’re not the sort of shortcomings that can be fixed in three months. He’s going to struggle against an experienced wrestler, even one he has two inches of height and six inches of reach on.
Bermudez has a bad habit of getting dropped and Edwards has the power to score an early finish. If Bermudez can survive a rough start, though, expect him to exploit Edwards’ lack of experience in deep waters and ground-and-pound the tiring “T” on his way to some 29-28s.
Prediction: Bermudez via unanimous decision
Related
After Cejudo At 125, Dillashaw Wants Holloway At 145


170 lbs.: Belal Muhammad vs. Geoff Neal

Belal Muhammad (14-2) started his UFC career 1-2, but has since assembled a four-fight win streak that includes an upset decision of Tim Means. “Remember the Name” was last seen defeating late replacement Chance Rencountre, and was going to face Brazilian knockout artist Elizeu “Capoeira” in Sept. 2018 before pulling out because of an injury. He will give up three inches of reach to Geoff Neal (10-2).
“Handz of Steel” made the move to 185 pounds for his “Contender Series” bout with Chase Waldon, making short work of the former RFA title challenger to earn a contract. He dispatched Brian Camozzi with a no-hooks rear-naked choke in his UFC debut, then laid an unholy beating on Frank Camacho before leveling him with a head kick in Sept. 2018. Six of his eight stoppage wins have come by form of knockout.
I procrastinated on picking this one — it’s not the closest fight on the card in terms of odds, but it’s tough to get a good read on it. Neal’s superior power has me leaning his way, but Muhammad has come a long way since getting dropped left and right by Alan Jouban and Vicente Luque. Indeed, he’s evolved into a genuine contender despite his lack of stopping power.
This will come down to how much success Muhammad has with his takedowns. Neal’s reach advantage will make it difficult to get inside, though, and he’s shown that he can keep up an impressive pace, making it unlikely that Muhammad can wear him down and take over late. Expect a competitive striking battle until Neal finds the mark with something nasty.
Prediction: Neal via second-round technical knockout


155 lbs.: Donald Cerrone vs. Alexander Hernandez

A disastrous rematch with Rafael dos Anjos led Donald Cerrone (34-11) to try his hand at Welterweight, where he won four straight by stoppage before hitting a 1-4 skid. Upon his return to 155 pounds, “Cowboy” faced fellow Jackson-Wink product Mike Perry and locked up a bonus-winning armbar late in the first round.
Cerrone has 17 submissions among his 26 stoppage victories.
Alexander Hernandez (10-1) exploded onto the scene with a short-notice 42-second knockout of Beneil Dariush, who was favored four-to-one going in. The victory earned him a crack at another contender in Olivier Aubin-Mercier, whom Hernandez outclassed in July 2018.
He will give up four inches of height and one inch of reach to Cerrone.
Hernandez is currently a moderate favorite and looked great in his two UFC appearances, but it’s worth noting that Cerrone is 11-2 at Lightweight since 2013, the only losses coming to dos Anjos. Hernandez doesn’t have the size or striking craft to exploit the flaws in Cerrone’s stand up the way Jorge Masvidal, Robbie Lawler, Darren Till, and Leon Edwards did, and his straightforward pressure leaves him open to Cerrone’s intercepting knee.
Cerrone lost to four of the Top 15 Welterweight contenders in the world. Hernandez, though undeniably talented, has one of the sport’s best bottom games and a merciless combination striking attack standing between him and his preferred grinding style. Cerrone wears down Hernandez with knees, kicks and punishing ground scrambles, eventually exhausting and finishing his shorter foe after a rough first round.
Prediction: Cerrone via third-round technical knockout

125 lbs.: Joanne Calderwood vs. Ariane Lipski

Joanne Calderwood (12-3) fell to Rose Namajunas on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 20, then opened her Octagon career 3-3. Consecutive losses to Jessica Andrade and Cynthia Calvillo sent her to Flyweight, where she showed off her grappling with a triangle-armbar finish of Kalindra Faria.
“JoJo” has five wins by (technical) knockout alongside that single submission victory.
Ariane Lipski (11-3) has won nine straight since starting her professional career 2-3, including a strong run in Poland’s KSW promotion. “The Violence Queen” won their vacant Flyweight title in 2017 and racked up a pair of successful defenses before making the jump to the Octagon.
That nine-fight streak includes five (technical) knockouts and two submissions.
Lipski is a terrific addition to the women’s Flyweight roster, easily the most significant acquisition not from TUF or “Contender Series.” She’s skilled, extremely aggressive and packs legitimate stopping power in both her punches and kicks.
She is also, unfortunately, going to open her UFC career with a loss.
Now that she’s in her proper weight class, we’re going to see what Calderwood is really capable of. Her greatest struggles have come against strong grapplers who can blend striking with takedowns, and though Lipski boasts a solid ground game, odds are we’ll get a pure striking battle. There, Calderwood’s experience and craft should just edge out Lipski’s volume in a fun, back-and-forth affair.
Prediction: Calderwood via split decision

205 lbs.: Alonzo Menifield vs. Vinicius Moreira

Alonzo Menifield’s (7-0) first “Contender Series” bout ended in anticlimactic fashion when opponent Daniel Jolly suffered an eye injury, forcing him to bow out after the first round. He went on to pick up a pair of stoppage wins in LFA, then returned to “Contender Series” with an eight-second technical knockout of Dashawn Boatwright.
All seven of his wins have come inside of two rounds, including six by knockout.
Vinicius Moreira (9-1) earned eight stoppage wins in less than two rounds on his way to a “Contender Series: Brasil” date with John Allan. “Mamute” had to weather some strong punches to do it, but Moreira ultimately brought his grappling to bear and tapped Allan with a second-round triangle choke to earn a contract.
He stands four inches taller than Menifield at 6’4.”
Menifield is a strong athlete, but still a definite work-in-progress. He’s got plenty of power and speed, plus a willingness to throw volume that I’d love to see out of fellow football import Eryk Anders. It’s the ground game that remains a question mark, plus his habit of overextending with his big right hand and opening himself up for takedowns.
Moreira a surprisingly fluid and lethal grappler for his size, making him a legitimate threat, but he’s absolutely lost on the feet. Though he has the top game to ruin Menifield’s day, the gap in speed in power is large enough to assuage my concerns about the grappling disparity. Menifield shreds Moreira standing for a quick finish.
Prediction: Menifield via first-round technical knockout

135 lbs.: Mario Bautista vs. Cory Sandhagen

Mario Bautista (6-0) went undefeated (4-0) as an amateur, then took a 3.5-year break before making his professional debut in 2017. He has racked up three submissions and two (technical) knockouts, including a pair of victories in LFA.
He steps in for the injured John Lineker on a week’s notice.
Cory Sandhagen (9-1) opened his Octagon career in January by thrashing Austin Arnett on eight days’ notice, using a powerful body attack to put him away in the second round. His next time out, he took on the ever-dangerous Iuri Alcantara, powering through a crushing armbar to pound out “Marajo” and secure “Fight of the Night.”
He has won four straight by knockout alongside two early-career submissions.
Bautista is young, fights out of a great camp in The MMA Lab, and looks to be a dangerous grappler who actually knows how to set up his takedowns with strikes. Unfortunately, Sandhagen is in a different dimension from practically everyone Bautista has ever fought. He already proved he could handle lethal submissions against Alcantara and figures to have a massive edge on the feet.
Bautista’s aggression should get him a takedown or two in the early going, but once Sandhagen’s body attack gets going, the short notice will take its toll. Sandhagen breaks him down late in the second round.
Prediction: Sandhagen via second-round technical knockout

[Shagdogy]

I have about 2u on Ostovich, mostly ML but some dec line (got them around +160 and +220). I'm glad you're also on board. Think this fight should be even odds at the worst. I'd put Ostovich as a slight fave just for being a natural 125'er with some competent points, but maybe I'm being too harsh on PVZ.

Here's a bit I wrote on the fight on the SD forum:

I agree with everything you said. Biggest concern for me is a late fight meltdown from Ostovich if she starts to gas in a close fight and doesn’t have the mental energy left to push through adversity after her recent events and she cracks. I feel she fought well vs DLR but did eventually look gassed on the mat in rd 3 but that’s with a MUCH bigger girl than PVZ on top of her, and an already pretty grueling 2 rounds in the books.

PVZ has the cardio and grit like you said, but looking at skills I would favor Ostovich to some extent in almost all facets, so I think the line value is all right.

Glad we’re seeing this alike.

[Shagdogy]

I haven’t really done enough of a dive into it to be sure, but going off memory I think I like Roberson in this matchup. But I have to go back and make sure I think he has a solid chance to avoid TDs from Teixeira.

[turbozed]

I agree with everything you said. Biggest concern for me is a late fight meltdown from Ostovich if she starts to gas in a close fight and doesn’t have the mental energy left to push through adversity after her recent events and she cracks. I feel she fought well vs DLR but did eventually look gassed on the mat in rd 3 but that’s with a MUCH bigger girl than PVZ on top of her, and an already pretty grueling 2 rounds in the books.

PVZ has the cardio and grit like you said, but looking at skills I would favor Ostovich to some extend in almost all facets, so I think the line value is all right.

Glad we’re seeing this alike.

I forgot to mention that I have a Rd3 hedge with Paige at around +1450 too. So it looks like we're sharing the same concerns there too.

[JIBBBY]

I'm fading the Cowboy.. He's been stinking it up lately and is starting to get old now at age 35 and has been in to many wars.. I don't trust him..

That last Mike Perry sub win I'm not buying it.. He's facing a guy with a 8 fight win streak now..https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Alex...ernandez-97669

[JAKEPEAVY21]

guys personality is definitely fake IMO, he tries way too hard
one thing i liked is how TJ said he will to 125 easier which i actually think could be true.. people forget how many times Cejudo has missed weight an how bad he looks at weigh ins

agreed, cejudo is just awful in interviews etc

I don't think he has what it takes to beat TJ..hopefully he gets KO'd to shut his ass up for awhile

[Hugo de Naranja]

agreed, cejudo is just awful in interviews etc

I don't think he has what it takes to beat TJ..hopefully he gets KO'd to shut his ass up for awhile

Gotta love paper champs that always talk in the third person, amirite?

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Gotta love paper champs that always talk in the third person, amirite?

yep lol..I assume you are going to be large on TJ tomorrow based on a couple things you have posted?

they both made weight

[frankieunits2685]

Leaning toward Dillishaw -210

And dillishaw + hardy parlay

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Man some of these pictures of TJ cutting weight are scary...

[Thrilla]

At the UFC Brooklyn pre-fight press conference, the stars from the first ESPN card Henry Cejudo, TJ Dillashaw, Donald Cerrone and Alexander Hernandez, plus UFC president Dana White, address the media Thursday at Williamsburg Music Hall.

[Thrilla]

Side note: Take a good look at Henry Cejudo's hair. From my own personal experience people with this type of hair have good genes. Strong by nature...Body type build bulky and tough.

[CasaBonita]

Side note: Take a good look at Henry Cejudo's hair. From my own personal experience people with this type of hair have good genes. Strong by nature...Body type build bulky and tough.

wtf

[firekillex]

Side note: Take a good look at Henry Cejudo's hair. From my own personal experience people with this type of hair have good genes. Strong by nature...Body type build bulky and tough.

great genes.... proceeds to be 5 foot 3 lmao

hell have the strength advantage over TJ hes definitely the thicker guy , but TJs speed and technique should win him this fight

[Hugo de Naranja]

yep lol..I assume you are going to be large on TJ tomorrow based on a couple things you have posted?

they both made weight

Yessir

[KingHawkins]

am I stupid to put a four figure bet in on Hernandez to beat Cowboy?

[KingHawkins]

Turbozed, any chance you'll share your picks for this event?

[HurlSweatPants]

am I stupid to put a four figure bet in on Hernandez to beat Cowboy?

Depends on if you win or not.